Friday mailbag: The '22 class, Hooker hype and receiver options

Vikings fans have questions about improvements and some ideas at quarterback

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone… it was a quiet week…too quiet. Well, we’ll see if anything comes down the pipe soon with remaining offseason moves. Until then, we speculate. Off we go…

@adamborrett Mailbag question: Most have been pretty down on the 2022 draft class (me included), but if it all comes up Kwesi how much would that change your view of the Vikes prospects in 2023? So Cine is a star, Booth/Asamoah/Ingram/Evans all become average to good starters, Otomewo/Chandler/Nailor all become impactful role players etc

I’m never in the business of judging a draft class after one year because rookies rarely make a massive impact right away. Even with the 2015 Vikings class it wasn’t clear until 2016 that it was going to be special. There are some concerning signs from Year 1 with the 2022 group but there’s still a decent chance the class turns out to be good.

Of course if every player they drafted worked out, it would change everyone’s view on the class and that would be incredible for their chances in 2023 and beyond and we would laud their questionable processes like trading down/taking a guard in the second etc. But if we’re being realistic, the 2015 class was the best of the decade and six players still didn’t do anything from that group. There’s about a 1% chance that eight draft picks from last year become something between impactful role players and stars.

We probably need to talk about what a reasonable expectation for that class actually is. If they end up with three players becoming quality starters, that’s probably close to a best-case scenario.

Jeff in Tokyo… Mailbag question... Lets say we trade down to 29... And Bijan Robinson is still there. I am I an idiot for thinking that it would be a decent idea to consider him if you believe he would be ranked #4-7 on boards IF positional value was ignored (ie we know RBs are devalued, but you are getting what you think is an elite player (vs a typical pretty good) with the 29th pick?

Jeff, you always ask great questions so I’d never call you an idiot. In this case, however, I would say the Vikings would be out of their minds to take a running back anywhere before the fourth round. For starters, the “generational” prospect is a myth for RBs as we have seen from Trent Richardson, Leonard Fournette — heck, even Saquon Barkley has been just pretty good and not a franchise changing player. The impact of a great RB is just not that much and they are greatly influenced by scheme/blocking.

The Vikings have so few picks and need all the premium positions (QB, WR, DL, CB). If they picked the position that’s easiest to replace in free agency or with a mid/late draft pick, I would be stunned.

@KEnglishDS If the Vikings trade Dalvin Cook -- what type of workload would you project for Alexander Mattison?

I would guess that Mattison is the lead back in a rotation with Ty Chandler and someone they draft in the mid/late rounds. My guess would be that he carries the ball about 175-200 times for around 800 yards and is a solid weapon in the passing game. The part I can’t quite figure out is why the Vikings never wanted to use Kene Nwangwu at all last year — not even for the occasional pitch or sweep. I suppose we should assume he’s out of that conversation.

@Farm_Fields204 Early talk revolves around the tough schedule of QBs. And facing Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow and Herbert is not an easy task. But we get Chiefs, Chargers & the 49ers D at home, some middling QBs (Carr, R.Wilson, Goff, Fields, Love) plus a handful of rookies. Is that really so scary?

It doesn’t matter where you play against Mahomes. His career road record is 33-9 with a 110.4 QB rating. Justin Herbert has also been an identical home/road QB. Are we dismissing Goff as not scary? He ran a top-five offense last year and he’s played six career games against the Vikings and averages 299 yards per game with a 101.6 QB rating and 7.9 YPA.

Think of it this way: Last year there were 40 QBs who threw at least 150 passes. By PFF grade, the Vikings played against No. 40, 35, 32, 25, 24, 23, 21, 20 and 17. It’s not just that they face way more elite QBs/offenses, it’s also that it would be near impossible to face a worse group than they did in 2022 without a rash of injuries.

@Zenkid__ Question: Am I crazy for feeling this sense of redundancy for the off-season and the lack of (apparent) vision for the future of this team? I can’t help but feeling like I’m stuck in a high school relationship

You’re definitely not crazy. The way things started out appeared like there was going to be a complete roster refresh. Out with the old, in with the new. But then it seemed to come to a screeching halt and nothing feels different aside from the fact they did not give Cousins an extension. The one thing to note is that we are used to having a good sense for where things stand going into the draft but this offseason hasn’t really been that way. There’s lingering issues to be resolved and rumors still floating around, which makes the whole thing hard to judge. It has a very 2019 to 2020-ish feel right now though.

@JohnJovi64 Here's a question, What do you think is the most likely scenario for the Vikes to improve depth at WR behind JJ?

Without any cap space to spend, the only option is drafting someone. If we are ranking scenarios, I’d guess they trade down and try to pick up an extra third-round pick or something and take a receiver there. That’s not a crazy idea since the league has a decent recent record of Day 2 receivers, though picking a guy at No. 23 is still favorable to get the best prospect available. It’s a solid draft to pick receivers in the late first round — at least by the way things are being prognosticated. If they do not land a receiver in the first three rounds, get ready for the Jalen Nailor/Brandon Powell WR3 battle (and a lot of 2TE sets).

@tomspeicher Better Vikings receiver: Troy Williamson or Laquon Treadwell?

Troy Williamson gets the wooden spoon here because he had a handful of exciting plays. Treadwell did not catch a pass of more than 25 yards in his first three seasons and his one 58-yard touchdown was the Seahawks completely forgetting about him (which is understandable, to be honest). There was a least a little flash here or there from Williamson.

@onerealeazye Who would you forecast as having next year’s first couple draft picks and will either of those teams be looking to draft a quarterback or will they have drafted one this year? If the Colts or Texans draft and start a rookie QB this year? Rams? Titans? Bucs? Pack? Who is tanking?

Who’s clanking for Caleb? Hm. It isn’t as obvious as last year with the Bears and Texans. I could see the Commanders, Cardinals and Titans as front runners. The Bucs could definitely be in the running. What if Lamar doesn’t come back to the Ravens? Or if Jimmy G gets hurt again and the Raiders don’t pick a QB this year. Atlanta could be bad if Ridder plays like he did last year. There’s lots of candidates.

@WarleyOwl Where has all this Hendon Hooker noise come from? Is it a genuine improvement in how he’s perceived or are some people just stirring things up? Has one “insider” heard something then everyone else in the herd followed them?

To your point, PFF tracks the Average Draft Position of mock drafts for each player and Hooker’s is a wild ride from October (left) to late March (right).

Right now on NFLMockDataBase, he’s listed at the 41st overall pick so it seems that the steam as a first-round pick is only coming from a few big voices and not everyone in the mock community.

I like discussing Hooker as an idea for the Vikings but if we’re being honest the mocks truly mean nothing. Mel Kiper once staked his career on Jimmy Clausen becoming a great quarterback. Jimmy did not become a great QB and Kiper did not quit his job. That’s the industry. Mocks are thought experiments, not reports. Entertainment purposes only. But to your point, it’s pretty good evidence of the group think that exists in the draft coverage industry. Zero people had Hooker as a first rounder before Daniel Jeremiah put him there and then suddenly the steam gained. Who knows if it’s for real or not.

@JohnJovi64 Mac Jones and a 3rd and 5th for Kirk Cousins and 6th, who should say no?

The Mac Jones thing is interesting. I go back and forth on it. It’s hard to argue with the idea that the Vikings should set the bar higher but then you look at a few factors and it makes you go hmmmm. Jones’s cap hits for the next two seasons are under $5 million. What would a ton of extra cap space do to their roster? (Kirk’s dead cap is only $10M if he’s traded after June 1). Mac played with the worst offensive coaching in the NFL last season and didn’t have anyone remotely like Justin Jefferson at receiver. By PFF he graded 11th in 2021 and 17th last year (among starters), which isn’t terrible. And then you think about the Vikings’ other options… Mac is around the same age as Hendon Hooker…are they going to be able to pick a top QB next year…

I would agree with anyone who says the Vikings need to find a playmaker at QB with a superstar ceiling. Absolutely. If that option isn’t on the table, I don’t think it’s crazy to look at a similar QB who’s way, way cheaper especially if you aren’t locked in. Maybe it’s a Ryan Tannehill thing. I dunno.

@kyleshaner If the Vikings made a Ricky Williams-type trade, trading all their picks this year to move up in the draft, how high could they get?

I know the Jimmy Johnson chart is out of style but I used it to figure this out. The Vikings only have 1,003 points total, which is equal to the 16th overall pick. Just to compare how bad their draft situation is right now, Detroit has 3,513 points, which is 500 points more than the No. 1 overall pick. It’s tough out there. If the Vikings need to move up, they will have to dip into their future picks.

@headcoach21 Despite their messy break up (and his troubling legal issues) do you think Adrian Peterson will be in the Vikings ring of honor soon??

I do think he will but probably not until he’s elected to the Hall of Fame. The Adrian thing is complicated. Though I knew about the 2014 thing when I arrived to cover the team in 2016, I was still pretty surprised at how many fans deeply resented him because of that. That incident isn’t going to change his HOF status though and time will heal some wounds eventually. For some folks, nothing will change the damage done and that’s understandable.

Jeff in Tokyo… Should a Cousins for Trey Lance trade happen, I know it has to be post June 1 for cap purposes.. Does that mean even if announced now, any compensation for draft picks has to be next years draft? Or could you have this years draft picks involved as well?

If they were making a trade involving draft picks and Cousins it would need to be for next year because the trade couldn’t be finalized until after June 1. Should it happen…it’s similar to the Mac Jones thing where you can make a case for it. Lance has so little playing time that you have to believe that he can develop and have a chance at maximizing that huge arm and athleticism. At the same time if the 49ers are bailing on him after seeing five games of Brock Purdy, that’s a massive red flag, isn’t it? I can’t think of a recent team that quit on a young QB and had it blow up in their face. At the same time, if you’re moving on from Kirk anyway, why not get a high ceiling player back and see what happens. You can always draft someone else if it doesn’t work.

@NicholasMMiller If the Vikings were willing to go down the middle round QB route again, who would you be most willing to bet on? Maybe intern @haleyeenglish17 can look at which of those guys has the best chance like she did with Hooker/Levis.

There might be some way to bend the odds in your favor when it comes to mid-round QBs but I doubt it. They have been so wildly unsuccessful since the Kirk/Russ 2012 draft that it’s a total lottery ticket. Here’s all the QBs picked in the third/fourth round since 2013 with the guys who became starters in bold:

Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Josh Dobbs, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Will Grier, Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Jacob Eason, James Morgan, Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Ian Book, Bailey Zappe.

Not exactly a compelling case for taking a mid-round QB, ya know?

@blurapala Lots of talk about QB, receiver, CB are they happy with the OL?

They don’t have a choice. Both tackles are great players and they re-signed Garrett Bradbury so…are they going to draft a guard at 23rd overall? That would be insanity after spending a second-round pick on a guard last year and with needs at all of the premium positions. They also have no cap space to bring in anyone else to compete at guard.

@ErrorRic If the Vikings love one of the QBs available at No. 3, would it make sense to trade No. 23 and their next two 1st round picks to go get him? It’s similar to what SF gave up for a Trey Lance and hasn’t stopped them being competitive even with Lance barely playing.

Well, San Francisco had a Super Bowl-caliber roster when they picked Lance. I’m not sure we can say that about the Vikings right now with all the needs they have on both sides of the ball. But ya know, if it’s Bryce Young, CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson and the ceiling on the guy is an absolute superstar, whatever. Go for it. As long as the Vikings have Jefferson and Darrisaw, they can figure out the rest. Oh, in this equation they should really be sure Jefferson is going to stick around.

@RatTrappin Been hearing steam about the UCLA kid Thompson-Robinson. What do you think?

I enjoyed watching him in college. Odds of him becoming a good quarterback in the NFL are slim to none. The list from earlier tells the story pretty well. If you want a QB, pick him with a top draft pick or don’t bother.

@dcaron28 who's one guy the Vikings need to come out of the draft with on their roster? my vote is Daiyan Henley

That’s random. One guy they need is Bryce Young but since that isn’t happening and you’re probably talking about guys in the middle rounds, I’d go with AT Perry if they don’t already pick a receiver. He’s a ballplayer.

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