Friday Mailbag: Speculating on the plan

We're only a few weeks away from some earth-moving decisions by the Vikings... what will they do with their offseason direction?

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By Matthew Coller

By this time next week I’ll be returning from the NFL Combine with all sorts of juicy nuggets… hopefully. Maybe not. We’ll see. But either way we’ll be one step closer to knowing where the Vikings are going with the future of the franchise so let’s dive into your offseason speculation questions…

@Conorm511 Anthony Richardson drops past 10 how much draft capital would you be willing to give up for him ?

I’ll say this without truly knowing how the league views Richardson: I would guess that the Vikings would need to give up the 24th overall pick, next year’s first and next year’s second to get in that conversation. With so many teams desperate for a future quarterback, it could be a Trey Lance type situation where the price tag goes through the roof for a quarterback with superstar potential. Would I do that? Probably. The only reason to hesitate would be the possibility of letting 2023 play out and being in a better position to take a QB in 2024 but there’s no time like the present so let’s go for it. No matter when you take a QB, that’s going to be the guy who determines the fate of your franchise. Swing hard and see what happens.

@tuurItUp We talk a lot about cap space and roster constructions, and it got me thinking- What % of the cap would a team of league-average (replacement level) players take up? What record would they finish with?

First, there is a salary cap floor. Last year every team needed to spend $180 million. That would mean overpaying some of the replacement level guys to get to the floor. As for the record they would finish with: Did you see the Bears play in Week 18? That’s what it would look like every week and they would lose every single game by a lot.

@ErinV28711992 Ok, so what are we going to do with Dalvin Cook, Tomlinson, Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, Kendricks and Hicks?

Best guess is that they cut Cook, Tomlinson signs elsewhere, Thielen and Smith return on a restructure, Kendricks signs a short-term extension to lower his cap hit and Hicks is let go.

*Note: All of those guesses could very well turn out to be wrong.

Jeff in Tokyo… 1. Do you think the NFL should consider the XFL kickoff rules? 2. If he shows out, any chance of a Jeff Badet reunion?

Yes, the NFL should absolutely consider the transparency of the replay reviews. I wonder if The Rock pushing that on social media as one of the victories of the XFL will put pressure on the NFL to show the refs’ review decisions. As far as Jeff Badet goes, we should all root for guys who give these side leagues a shot. Someone will probably invite him to NFL camp next year if he’s healthy.

@HotHouseHusband Are the Wilfs standing in the way of a Vikings “dynasty” by mandating a “win now, ass in seats, let’s make money” philosophy? If so how do we change that mentality?

The idea that the Wilfs are out for money seems like a take that came directly from 2002. Did you mix this up with the whole cheap Twins thing? Have you seen the NFL lately? The Washington Commanders — the league leader for worst franchise in the NFL by a mile — are going to sell for like $4 billion. Nobody is struggling to make money in the NFL. Not only that, if the Wilfs were out for just their own bottom line and nothing else, they wouldn’t restructure all these contracts and pay out huge dollars on the spot. They wouldn’t spend to the cap every single year. I don’t know what the Wilfs think because they aren’t talking all the time like Jerry Jones but I think they are very optimistic fans who want their team to do everything they can to make the playoffs and be right there in the mix and that someday it’ll work out like it did for the Giants or Steelers. It’s easy for us to say: TANK, MY DUDES!” But losing is hell for everyone in an organization.

@andrewdbowers With Evans, Cine, Booth, and potentially Shelley as the core of the defensive back end, do the Vikings prioritize CB in the first round or choose a top DT, LB, or Edge rusher to bolster the front? Does it depend on their confidence in Cine and Booth?

You can make a very good case for an interior D-lineman who can rush the passer or an edge rusher with the futures of their OLBs being uncertain. The cornerback position is going to be super important in Brian Flores’s equation but there is a decent argument for letting the CB position play itself out and whatever happens is a fine outcome. If they’re both great, wonderful. If they both are bad, you’re drafting high next year because you’re stopping absolutely nobody on defense…and you’ll know for sure that you need help in the future.

@bobh332 The draft is going to feel weird without 12 picks in the last two rounds. Maybe Kwesi can work some trade back magic??

Yeah, I would expect some trading back. Draft night might be a pretty unhappy experience for everybody, even if it’s the right idea to trade out of the first round. There’s only so much they can do though. With only two top 100 picks, maneuvering without sacrificing chances to get helpful players will be tough. Not saying they can’t rob somebody but every team has analytics these days. This isn’t Mike Ditka trading it all for Ricky Williams.

@SwedSkol Which third year player from the 21 draft class will take the big leap this next season?

Wait, there’s somebody left from the ‘21 draft class? Seriously, the only players remaining are Christian Darrisaw, Patrick Jones, Kene Nwangwu and Cam Bynum. With Darrisaw already being a star, I’d say Jones has the best chance of that group. If the Vikings aren’t playing Lewis Cine this year, I don’t know what they’re doing and Nwangwu appears to be just a kick returner in their minds. Jones had some splash pays last year even if he didn’t grade out all that well by PFF.

@SamRoot43 If no WR go in the top 22, and Kwesi calls you up to ask which guy to take at 23, who do you take? (Assume no long term FA signing at the position)

Whoever they want. You know I’m into the idea of a receiver in that spot, despite all the defensive needs and you probably also know that I don’t think there’s any great way to say which receiver is most likely to work out. I have noticed over the years that the ability to track the football usually shines over almost anything else and it can be telling (in a good way) when a team moves a guy around a lot… so maybe Zay Flowers?

@smccullough5 Lots of talk about the future of Kirk. Just for speculation, let's say he gets a MASSIVE contract from the XFL and he takes it. What kind of career does he have, given his age and does he make the XFL HOF (if that's a thing)?

AJ McCarron is presently shredding the XFL. That’s all you really need to know. Kirk would be the Tom Brady of the XFL.

@TVanHatten Three young DBs, Cine, Booth and Evans were often injured last year so we don't how good they will be. Do we think any of them of them will fit the new DC's scheme ?

It’s impossible to predict those guys’ future health but there’s an argument for each of them being in a better position with Brian Flores. Cine in particular has such great physical skills that he seems like he would be a fit in a system that uses safeties aggressively in the box. Both Booth and Evans are supposed to be at their best when tracking receivers one-on-one. We saw that early in camp last year from Booth and then the injuries cropped up. It comes down to whether Cine can master the nuances and if Booth can stay healthy. I’m not really sure about Evans yet, he’s more of a project type.

@skiyouMeeko Good evening Matthew Which 90’s nfl team does current vikings situation compare to?

Is it too easy to say that it compares to the early-90s Vikings? The Kirk years have been similar to the Warren Moon years. Lots of big numbers with a great receiving duo but there was always something in the way and they hung around the middle. You could probably make a parallel with the Jeff Hostetler Raiders. They finished between 10-6 and 7-9 every year he was their starting QB and they were always competitive but not quite there. They even had a negative point differential regular season where they went to the divisional round and gave Buffalo a run for their money in the playoffs. Had the Stan Humphries Chargers not made the Super Bowl there would be a parallel. That team won 11, 8, 11, 9, 8 with Humphries in the regular season before hitting a wall with him in ‘97. The NFL used to really age QBs, by the way. Humphries retired at age 32.

@headcoach21 Why do you think Eric Bienemy hasn’t been hired as a Head Coach?? He can’t be worse than Joe Judge or Urban Meyer right??

Before we speculate on other reasons, it’s worth saying that the NFL’s problem with minority coaches getting a fair shot remains a massive problem that clearly has not been solved or even slightly improved during my entire lifetime of watching/covering football. So that’s part of it. I also think there’s some other stuff, including his legal issues from that past that would make teams antsy. His Wikipedia page has some uncomfortable paragraphs. I could make a bunch of arguments for Andy Reid calling the shots, Mahomes being the reason for his success and so forth but that hasn’t restricted other coaches from getting HC jobs in the past. We don’t know what the interviews have been like with him either. Maybe he isn’t as polished as some teams want. I can only guess, just like everyone else beyond the obvious systemic problem.

@Just1SBB4IDie If you were creating a staff of non-retired coaches who would be on your staff if money was no object.

I would pick John Harbaugh for HC, Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, Bill Belichick as DC, Mike McDaniel as pass game coordinator, Arthur Smith as run game coordinator, Josh McCown as QB coach, Pete Carroll as motivational coach, Matt Patricia as parking lot attendant.

@vikesfan1930 How do you choose people to join purple insider ? Just cool to see you hire young talent from various sports companies? #fridaymailbag

It’s been happenstance. I met Paul when he was interning with the Pioneer Press and he came out to TCO Performance Center a few times in 2019. He lost another internship due to COVID around the same time my former radio station 1500ESPN shut down. So he reached out when I started Purple Insider and asked if I needed an extra hand. He came aboard and then worked really hard to grow as a writer/broadcaster. I’m very happy for him. With Haley English, I had seen some of her work pop up with PFF and was impressed. She also had some unfortunate timing. When PFF made some budget cuts they let go of their interns and she was included. A few people gave me good recommendations and I think you already see from her first article that she’s got it. Excited to have her along.

@thetuse Although I am the founder of Clank For Caleb in ‘24, I am on board with trying to find a QB to groom in ‘23. What is your gut feeling?

Despite Brock Purdy’s success, I still feel like spending a pick on anything but a first rounder is a waste. Either go for it or don’t.

@eleysium 70’s purple vs. modern Vikings purple uniforms—why not go back to that winning shade?

There’s a lot to like about the classics. I’d be interested to know why they never went back to that darker purple. They do wear the throwback all white jerseys sometimes now. Those are good.

@smccullough5 Let's talk offensive line again. What free agents can the Vikings target with their limited cap space? Any news on Brian O'Neill?

Assuming you mean his injury, O’Neill is expected to be fine, I believe but we’ll ask about it at some point. The center position is the only one they’d consider addressing in free agency. There’s eight centers aside from Garrett Bradbury who are available and two of them are good (Ethan Pocic and Connor McGovern). They can roll the dice with someone else or see if Bradbury wants to stick around at a reasonable price. Drafting one should be off the table and I don’t think they want to roll with Chris Reed there.

Jeff via email… Looking at it objectively, it's hard to find 5 wins. If this comes to pass we'll have some good draft capital and a much healthier cap situation for '24 to start the rebuild. Hope springs eternal! We just have to really stink it up this year, and I don't think that's going to prove all that difficult. 

Five wins seems a little aggressive considering Kirk has never won fewer than seven in a season but the point you’re making here is that if they just let things happen naturally and do not scratch and claw to get to eight wins that it might work out for them pretty well in the long run. I’d agree with that. If they sacrifice their future for every cap dollar right now, then hope will be less eternal for escaping first-round-out land.

@Erik04172824 If Hendon Hooker is available in the third do you make a move?

I was as impressed as anyone watching him play this year but he’s older than Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. We’re talking Brandon Weeden or Chris Wienke stuff here. To me he’s probably a high-end backup if he’s taken in the third round and…. meh. This team should be looking for its next Daunte Culpepper.

@kyleshaner What is your dream coaching staff comprised entirely of journeyman quarterbacks? What is your dream coaching staff comprised entirely of special team stalwarts? And which coaching staff would be better?

Assuming we’re talking about journeymen who aren’t already coaches, I’ll go Ryan Fitzpatrick head coach, JT O’Sullivan offensive coordinator, Brian Hoyer pass game coordinator, Tyrod Taylor run game coordinator and deep pass game analyst, Nick Foles defensive coordinator and Ray Lucas special teams.

The special teamers would have Matthew Slater as HC, Steve Tasker OC, Bill Bates DC, Justin Tucker as kicker/special teams coach and Reggie Roby as trick-play analyst.

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