Friday mailbag: So who's gettin' paid?

Fans want to know what's going to happen with Vikings players who need contracts

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@RalphVixCPA Mount Rushmore of Vikings All Time. Criteria: careers must be complete. Categories. 1. Washington - OG Goat 2. Jefferson - flawed but brilliant 3. Lincoln - GOAT 4. Roosevelt - Popular not necessarily HOF

Yeah, the Mount Rushmore thing in sports terms basically just means the best four when it’s pretty ambiguous who the actual best four presidents of all time. Though I do think it’s a shame that President Camacho from Idiocracy isn’t up there on that mountain. Anyway, it’s too tough to pick one for each so I’ll give two…. the OG GOAT is either probably Carl Eller or Jim Marshall, who were both with the team nearly from the beginning. I’d say Tarkenton and Moss go under the “flawed but brilliant” category. The GOAT can be Alan Page or Bud Grant. I might go with Culpepper or Chuck Foreman for popular but not exactly HOF. Lots of potential nominees for every category though.

@okie56201 Which young players on defense should thrive with the system that Brian Flores brings with him

One player I like for Flores is Byron Murphy Jr. He’s been used inconsistently in Arizona so there’s a good chance he settles into a role where he can play a lot of nickel and be aggressive. I’m still counting him as a young player, even if he does have a lot more experience than others in the secondary. Akayleb Evans strikes me as a guy who can track receivers effective in man-to-man coverage. He’s going to play more of that with Flores than Donatell. It seems Flores has already taken note of Josh Metellus. The complexity of his defense might work well with Metellus’s high IQ. The big question is about Lewis Cine. Can Flores put him in position to play aggressively and downhill? Maybe but he’s also going to want to use Harrison Smith that way.

@ItsJustOs cousins and the defense were both middle of the pack by EPA. they got there pretty much the exact same way ( bad for the first three quarters and really good in the fourth). why was one considered good and the other bad?

This is where the analytics can be a little tricky. By Ben Baldwin’s site the Vikings’ defense was 16th in EPA per play but they were on the field for the second most total plays in the NFL and ranked 26th by Pro-Football Reference’s total EPA. That matters in the discussion, right? They had a fair number of big plays that would have swung EPA like their stop against Detroit or INTs in the end zone versus the Bills but they were largely getting run up and down the field.

Baldwin’s site has them 10th in EPA/dropback and PFR 7th in total EPA. That’s pretty different than the defense. Kirk also came through in many big moments, which definitely matters in the discussion. But I also don’t remember talking about last season him having a spectacular season, it was just his most clutch and gritty year by far.

@Aduke43987144 In this content oasis called July we did favorite football memories on my pod, I’d love to hear about your all time favorite football memory, (Other than the MPLS Miracle of course)

I’ve been watching football since 1991 so that’s not exactly an easy question. I can tell you that since I’ve been covering the Vikings the best time I’ve had at the job was during the trip to New Orleans for the 2019 playoffs. A bunch of us went to a restaurant before the game and ate the best food I’ve had in my life. So many funny things happened that night that we still talk about them from time to time. And then after the game, I was the last person in the locker room waiting for Andrew Sendejo to talk with him about playing nickel in that game. He was more exhausted than I’ve ever seen a player postgame but gave a remarkably insightful interview. It’s not easy to get something that no other reporters have following a playoff game so I felt pretty good about that.

I was walking back to my hotel through the city on the phone with Judd Zulgad doing a podcast and taking in the entire scene and going over every detail of what was an incredible game. A few of us met up with some Saints reporters before we flew back for another good meal. That was a lot of fun.

@kyleshaner The Colts and Lions have released players who gambled on NFL games, but if they had been star players, it seems likely that they wouldn’t have cut them. For the Vikings, what’s the cutoff on whom would be released versus who wouldn’t if they bet on games?

Yeah that’s an evolving situation. The Falcons cut Calvin Ridley and he had 90 catches in 2020 so I’m not sure that anybody is totally safe from getting whacked when it comes to betting on games, though maybe they made a mistake considering it turned out that he wasn’t the only one in the league doing it. It really depends on the type of gambling. Any player who bets against his own team would have to go no matter what. If it was a Viking player betting on the team, they would probably keep anyone that they planned to have for more than one year, take the suspension and move on.

@headcoach21 Do you think Zimmer will be a head coach again?? The environment he created toward the end of his tenure here might scare some owners off

I don’t think he’ll get another chance. It’s not just the environment, his age and style in general would play into it as well. Teams are looking for young offensive minds who can connect with players and he’s an old hardass defensive coordinator who’s never going to be a player’s coach. I do think if he took a job as a coordinator in the right situation Mike could still lead an elite defense.

@oldbreedwriter With Hunter threatening to be a training camp holdout, who and when was the last Viking to not show up for camp? With all of the fines for not attending, is holding out feasible?

I honestly don’t know. Since I’ve been covering the team there hasn’t been any holdouts. The rookie wage scale changed the chances that any rookie would sit out and veteran players have pretty much always gotten paid. The last big one around the league was Khalil Mack. It seems like teams have gotten pretty good at assessing situations like that and trading players while they still have value rather than dealing with the holdout. That said, as it pertains to the Hunter thing, he can afford to pay the fines. The last CBA did make the rules so players have to pay them (they could be waived before) but he made $20 mill cash last year and he knows a massive new deal is coming here or somewhere else so he can afford it.

Scott… Can the Vikings, realistically, finalize all 3 of their big, outstanding contract negotiations (JJ, Hock and Hunter) with their current salary cap. If so, what would they look like? If not, what two should they get done and who is the odd man out?

They can, yes. Naturally a big part of that is not having a $30-$40 million cap hit at the quarterback position. Sometimes it feels like OverTheCap and Moneyball have turned us all into NEVER PAY ANYONE bots. The Chiefs have two other guys outside of Mahomes making over $20 million on the cap right now. If they are paying JJ/Hock/Hunter big contracts but the rest of the roster is made up of recent draft picks and fairly inexpensive players and the QB position isn’t expensive after 2024, they can space out the biggest numbers and use some of the cap magic down the road when needed to make free agent additions. If they would prefer not pay all three, Hunter seems like the most obvious odd-man out because he’s worth something in the trade market rather than letting Hockenson walk and getting a comp pick back or franchise tagging him next year. I could see either Hock/Hunter or both not being around long term but it’s not going to destroy their future cap to keep them.

@NicholasM_1993 Is it possible a Kirk trade still happens before the season? Perhaps a Sam Bradford type situation if a contender has QB issues in training camp?

The key difference in the situations is that the Eagles had Carson Wentz. Had the Vikings drafted Will Levis we’d probably be talking about it when the first QB turns an ankle at training camp but it’s really hard to see them doing that now unless it’s the much-discussed Cousins for Trey Lance deal where each team gets a QB who they want and fits with their timeline. Otherwise it would mean the Vikings playing Nick Mullens and/or Jaren Hall for 17 games. That might sound pretty attractive to those of you who are Caleb Williams fans, I just can’t see them doing it without a future QB coming back. I don’t want to completely count anything out with the way they have sent so many players packing this offseason but that possibility probably ended after minicamp. They hay is in the barn at this point.

David… Who are a few players you’ve covered or met that have gone on in retirement to do something interesting? Alan Page comes to mind but not everyone can become a State Supreme Court Judge!

Shout out to my pal Jeremiah Sirles for becoming a broadcaster for Nebraska and a player agent following his career. I can’t say I’ve kept a close eye on what’s happened with a lot of other guys that I’ve covered who have retired. The Vikings do have quite the pipeline of famous broadcasters from Ahmad Rashad to Cris Carter and Randy Moss (did anyone see that coming?). If somebody knows of interesting stuff recent guys are doing, let me know.

@jeffintokyo1 What are the odds before training camp 1. JJ extension 2. Hock extension 3. Hunter trade 4. Hunter extension Thanks! And agreed with your commentary that training camp is fun to see which youngsters/FAs look good or bad.. Especially this year with so many young guys.

If we can extend this into the first couple weeks of training camp, I’ll go with JJ at 60%, Hock 45%, Hunter trade 45%, Hunter extension 55%.

Those might be the most non-committal takes I’ve ever had but I’m really not sure how it’s all going to play out. I could see Jefferson having no urgency to sign a deal unless it’s the perfect contract for him, though I still think it’s smart for him to sign. Could see Hock betting on himself or Hunter digging in. With most of the other situations like Thielen/Za’Darius/Cook, I felt pretty confident where those were going. I’m much less sure about circumstances at hand with these three stars.

James… What is an extension for Darrisaw likely to look like and is he good enough to get that after year three or his more years out?

Laremy Tunsil set the standard at $25 million per year. I imagine Darrisaw will want to reach that benchmark or higher. Yes, he’s good enough. He was one of the five best tackles in football last season and there’s nothing that would make you think that won’t continue long term. It might not have been talked about enough last year how he took a massive step forward from Year 1 to Year 2 and I think that said a lot about how much he wants to be a great player. Plus, physically he’s one of the most impressive players at LT in the NFL. And while right tackles are getting more difficult assignments than ever, that left tackle position has a real domino effect for a defense. When Darrisaw was out, they were forced to help with RBs and TEs. Being able to leave that dude on an island is a cheat code for an offense.

Matthew…  now that you have survived the Taylor Swift concert, what sorts of things do you plan to do during the weeks off before training camp kicks in? Any trips? Some bball?

I’m truly the least exciting person on earth. I’ll be playing golf, going to Lynx games, playing basketball and writing/podcasting camp previews. Maybe if we get wild I’ll visit some antique shops with the wife to furnish our new place.

Jim…regardless of Lewis Cine's development, but did the Vikings screw up by waiting to draft a WR in 2023 vs. 2022? I think Addison may end up being a very solid player, but it's hard not to compare his measurables to Jameson Williams who was there at the Vikings pick prior to the trade-down. The '23 WR class was frankly a bit underwhelming, and I wonder if they were backed into the wrong year to address the position.

At the time I felt that they should have just picked Williams or Kyle Hamilton because they were elite prospects and there was a pretty clear fall off in quality of the prospects. Williams was a better prospect than Addison and ultimately they may regret the way they handled 2022 but if we look at the first and second rounds of recent drafts when it comes to receivers there are quite a few examples of the guy who was drafted higher not becoming the better receiver (see: Justin Jefferson being the fifth receiver picked or AJ Brown going in the second round). So in general, I’m with you that the right move was picking the guy in the top 15 rather than trading way down and then addressing it in a weaker class but I’m not sure how different the odds of either player being great actually are. It’s likely very close. We’ll see how it plays out.

Introverted PI subscriber… what the hell is going on at ESPN? Will there be anyone left? I don’t like seeing mass layoffs. You have experienced this kind of hack and slash management mentality. Your thoughts?

Seems like the same thing that’s happening all over the industry. If you make too much money and your outlet can’t show that you clearly bring in huge dollars, you’re gonna get chopped. What’s frustrating is that the quality of the actual work doesn’t seem to matter. I saw great writers for The Athletic getting fired and Suzy Kolber being fired was a travesty. She’s one of the greats in sports broadcasting history. I’m sure they feel they can replace her for 1/4 of the cost. It’s really frustrating. Things worked out well for me thanks to all of you wonderful people but there’s way too many great writers and broadcasters getting the short end because of things that are totally out of their control.

John… I believe you've covered this but I really don't understand the cousins contract restructure. Do you think this was a miscalculation by kwesi? I feel like he tries to keep all options open but by doing so, often paints himself into a corner on some things. 

I wonder if they could go back in time knowing that Cousins wouldn’t sign a short-term extension and Dalvin/Za’Darius wouldn’t get anything back in return if they’d do it differently. Someone told me that the restructure looked like it was set up for an extension originally but it hasn’t played out that way, maybe because Cousins’s side didn’t come down from their price. You might be right about painting themselves into a corner. Though we do have to acknowledge the sheer number of tricky situations that Kwesi was handed right off the bat with this job.