Friday Mailbag: So many offseason questions

Few definitive answers but we try anyway

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Hope you have fun watching this weekend’s playoff games. Let’s dive into your questions…

Patrick G… QB-ish related. . . Any thoughts on Josh McCown getting replaced?

Whenever we start talking about firing people, we have to ask: Is there a specific reason that it would be a good idea to move on or do we just want vengeance when something went wrong? Chopping the same QB coach who was here for a 14-win season because the team misevaluated JJ McCarthy’s readiness feels more vengeance-y than logical.

Overall when it comes to assistant coaches, I’ve always had a tough time picking apart how good they are at their jobs because we know so little about what goes on in those rooms and at practice. It feels like a big reach unless it’s obviously going terrible or a situation like Keenan McCardell or Daronte Jones where Jefferson requested McCardell stay after KOC was hired and Jones was cited as a reason Harrison Smith wanted to come back.

All I can say is that McCown has been a right-hand man for O’Connell and somebody that is highly respected throughout the NFL. But he can’t throw the ball for McCarthy. He can’t keep McCarthy healthy.

That’s the thing about the coaching and McCarthy’s whole arc. When did they ever have a chance to really get on track? Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye’s coaches got to work with them for two straight years. The Vikings coaching staff got 2024 OTA/minicamp, some of camp and then a six-month break. Then he returns and they get OTA/minicamp and camp, then a five-week stoppage. Then he plays a few games, and there’s another week missed. Then he misses another game and plays two halves. It’s really, really tough to build consistency at that point.

That’s why this offseason is so huge for him.

Anyway, if they make changes to the coaching staff, it wouldn’t be a shock because that’s happens when things play out this way but it’s very hard for me to shout at the rooftops that someone needs to pay.

Matt D… Assuming Flores and Daronte Jones are gone, who would you want for the DC next year?

The names that make the most sense are Raheem Morris and Jonathan Gannon. It really depends on how much they want to try to stay true to what Flores was doing over the last three years. Morris has the second highest blitz percentage in the NFL this year, only behind the Vikings.

The other person on the staff that would make some sense is inside LBs coach Mike Siravo.

They may have their eyes on other potential names that aren’t currently DCs. Wink Martindale, for example, is working at Michigan. He’s as aggressive as they come.

I guess we’ll see if that needs to happen or not.

Mike T… I agreed last year when, I think it was Kwesi, said they were committed to “winning games in different ways.” That’s what good teams do. At the press conference, we were told they have to get back to playing KOs “scheme.” A scheme BTW, that has never won a playoff game, so there is no proof of concept that the deep shot approach can win for him in the postseason. So which is it? The evidence shows they are not interested in winning games in different ways. KOC has a pained look on his face every time he has to get in front of you guys and talk about making adjustments to his brilliant approach to offensive football.

Well, you’re going to need to show your work on that.

Here’s the team rankings for most 15+ yard plays in 2025:

1- New England 2- Los Angeles 3- Buffalo 4- Detroit 5- Chicago 6- Dallas 7- Seattle 8- Arizona 9- Green Bay 10- Jacksonville

That’s seven playoff teams and Detroit/Dallas both had great offenses. Arizona was probably racking them up while losing by 20.

Here’s where the playoff quarterbacks ranked in Average Depth of Target (out of 45):

Matthew Stafford (2nd), Trevor Lawrence (5th), Jordan Love (7th-T), Drake Maye (7th-T), Jalen Hurts (10th-T), Caleb Williams (10th-T), Sam Darnold (15th), CJ Stroud (20th), Brock Purdy (27th-T), Bo Nix (27th-T), Josh Allen (34th), Bryce Young (37th), Aaron Rodgers (42nd).

That list doesn’t scream to me that you can’t win with downfield passing since half of them are in the top 15.

The reason he has a pained look is because he adjusted the heck out of the offense and everyone said that he didn’t.

Certainly there were times where we were all saying JUST RUN THE BALL!!!! Like second-and-1 at the goal line against the Eagles or the goal line vs. Detroit where JJ ran out of bounds. But they finished 14th in pass percentage. They used way more big personnel as the season went on. They used more play-action (25th through Week 12 with McCarthy, 8th from Week 13 on).

If you want to blame KOC for what happened this year, I’m not going to stop you. They finished 26th in scoring and that’s nowhere near where an offensive head coach’s team should be. But if you’re telling me that a downfield passing game doesn’t work and they didn’t adjust, those are provable things that are not true.

You could say that it took too long. Maybe that’s right. McCarthy did miss five weeks in there and it may have been tough to figure out what he was capable of handling. I did feel that they asked too much of Carson Wentz at times.

I think what you’re really trying to say is: “It wasn’t JJ’s fault.” I’m not sure that holds up to much scrutiny considering the past success throwing the ball. From 2022-2024, with Cousins, Darnold, Dobbs, Mullens and a tiny bit of Jaren Hall, they are 12th in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt right behind Justin Herbert’s Chargers and Dak Prescott’s Cowboys.

But I do think they badly need to figure out how to better prevent sacks and interceptions. KOC has also admitted that it’s OK to play a hard-nosed defensive style game sometimes.

There’s real criticisms, I’d just like to try to be specific and accurate.

Eldon…Do you think the Steelers or Ravens hire Flores? Also watching Darnold have success in Seattle it seems like the Vikings made a mistake but it seems like Kubiak has approached the offense differently leaning on Seattle’s running game when Darnold started to struggle against the 49ers. Would KOC have leaned on the running game this year or would it be like the last 2 games of 2024?

Both teams are interviewing about 10,000 people, so I’m not really sure how to weigh his odds of landing either job. He makes a lot of sense to me for both places. He’s similar to Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin in his demeanor and 3-4-rooted, hyper aggressive approach. He’s got a track record of winning and they’re going to need an ass-kicking defense to win because the QB situation probably isn’t solving itself soon. Unless Bubby Brister comes back.

In Baltimore, their defense faded, which was just as much the reason they missed the playoffs as Harbaugh or Lamar’s injuries. If Flores could run the defense and hire someone to work directly with Lamar, then they could legit be right back to competing for a ring.

Would KOC have leaned on the run game? I don’t know if that’s ever going to be in his DNA like with Kubiak. That whole family has built everything off the run since Mike Shanahan was running the Broncos offense in the late 90s.

We have to remember what happened in 2024. They were running the ball really well through 8 games and then Christian Darrisaw got hurt. The guy they replaced him with was the worst run blocker in the NFL and they swapped a good run blocker in Ed Ingram with Dalton Risner (which was the right move since Darnold was cooking). Aaron Jones got banged up and Cam Akers was the only other answer.

That’s nothing like running with two highly drafted RBs behind an OL built to run block.

Brent O… Does Jordan Addison’s latest run-in change anything with the team? Does it change the chance they sign him long-term this offseason, or if they pick up the 5th year option instead to buy more time to see if it’s worth it?

Also, who are the most likely contract-related cuts? Hockenson, Hargrave, Allen, Jones?

We should always be fair with the obligatory “innocent until proven guilty” part but there’s no way that the incident doesn’t impact their view of Addison. The fifth-year option, per OTC, is expected to be around $17 million and he’d be seeking at least $20 million per year in an extension based on the market prices for WRs. I’m not sure how you invest those dollar figures when you’re not sure if the guy is going to be available or on the suspended list. There have been enough opportunities for “come to Jesus” moments and enough excuses about his youth. Now it’s a pattern. They can’t ever be sure what he’s going to do.

Allen’s contract pretty well solidifies him here but the rest are very possible cuts. I’m not sure if there’s anyone else outside of the guys you mentioned. I’d be surprised if Hock, Hargrave or Jones are back.

Anglo Vike… Does Addison’s latest faux-pas make it more important for the Vikes to keep hold of Nailor? Given they’re drafting at #18 and having other needs then replacing Addison via the draft may not be so easy

The most likely outcome is still that Addison is here in 2026 and Nailor hits free agency but this does open up the door for the possibility that they decide enough is enough. And it also makes it almost impossible for them to talk extension with him and certainly has to make them second guess using the fifth-year option.

You are right that finding wide receivers these days almost exclusively has to be done through the draft or via trade for someone else’s disgruntled receiver.

But I don’t think it always has to be in the first round. This year alone several viable receivers came in the second round and there’s been a lot of them in the recent second rounds like Ladd McConkey, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Wan’dale Robinson, George Pickens etc.

I’m always of the mind that they should be picking receivers every year. This year they actually have a couple draft picks to do that.

Jim L… With the latest Addison misstep, what do you think the chances are of the Vikings trading Addison, resigning Nailor, and looking for another receiver, either a free agent or via the draft?

The chances of that happening are probably less than 50% because Addison is only on the books for $4.3 million in 2025. Signing Nailor likely would cost more than $10 million. Addison isn’t likely to garner big draft capital in return because they would be selling at the worst possible time.

Decisions aren’t made in the NFL based solely the common sense of this being absolutely ridiculous and him not being the least bit trustworthy away from the facility. There are economics involved that make it harder.

Bradley P… While I’ve been a defender of Kwesi I’m wondering if he should be on the hottest of hot seats. Yes, his first draft was awful. But even last year giving Aaron Jones such a large contract, paying a guard $17M, choosing JJ over Sam, the mid but expensive defensive tackles, letting Bynum walk and that desperation trade for a very past his prime AT. What say you?

Well, if you’re trying to play Devil’s Advocate here, the Vikings had a top-15 run game in EPA and top-10 in Success Rate, they had a top-15 offensive line by PFF in run and pass blocking, he didn’t make the JJ vs. Sam decision alone, the “mid but expensive” defensive tackles combined for 65 QB pressures versus 33 from Jerry Tillery and Harrison Phillips last year and despite letting Bynum walk they ranked 5th in Expected Points Added against the pass.

The last three drafts have netted a WR with 19 TDs in his first two seasons, another WR who became a quality No. 3, the team leader in sacks this year, a rising quality starting guard, the best kicker in the league and a couple role players that may be in the rise in Jay Ward, Levi Drake Rodriguez.

What about Jalen Redmond? Eric Wilson? Jordan Mason?

Were players No. 2-52 good enough to compete for a championship? When you look at Seattle and Los Angeles, I’d say those two clubs have better supporting casts for their QBs. Anybody else?

If the Vikings get the 12th best QB play, nobody would give a crap if they spent too much money for Will Fries and Javon Hargrave. They would have won 12 games and been exactly where they hoped to be.

What happens with any regime is: It’s like a relationship with fans. At first, they love that everything is different and if there’s some success then it’s the best thing ever. But as the years go by and nobody raises a banner, all the things that they’ve done wrong become the sole focus and people just end up being mad constantly. It’s one of the reasons owners fire coaches constantly. Not always that it’s a good idea but something to turn the fans’ morale back around.

My opinion is that they’ve done a lot right and did a lot this last offseason that was inefficient but it worked overall. They made one absolutely enormous catastrophic mistake because they thought they couldn’t get over the top with Sam Darnold on the franchise tag and took a huge risk going to JJ. It didn’t pay off.

Everyone deserves 2026 to fix it. But the NFL doesn’t give anybody much more time than 5 years without a playoff win.

Florian K… J.J.s mechanics. Is any sportswriter covering the Vikings going to check up during his offseason who or where he’s going to be coached up?

What would you like the sportswriters to do? Hide in the bushes and see what he’s working on?

I’m sure we’ll chat with him about it at offseason workouts.

Gary A… KOC and KAM have been here four years, how is this team better off than what we had before them? Salary cap issues, QB and OL questions, and key coaches and players hitting free agency and big contract decisions. Show me there’s sunshine and blue skies ahead.

Yeah, I feel ya. The 2021 team was obviously much worse off defensively in terms of talent. They were playing guys like Nick Vigil, Armon Watts, Mackensie Alexander, James Lynch, Cam Dantzler, Bashaud Breeland… that’s nowhere close to what they have now.

Maybe I’m wrong but I think 2021 Kirk (with Klint Kubiak!) may have been the best version of Kirk. They finished that season 7th in Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt and he had a bunch of games that he didn’t deserve to lose. The first two weeks, the Cooper Rush Game, the OT loss vs. Baltimore, the loss at Detroit..

But they just had no defense at all because they could never fix the D after losing Griffen, Rhodes, Joseph, Waynes etc.

In this case, the Vikings have the parts (even if Flores leaves) to be a top-10 defense in 2026 and top five if he stays. They have the offensive weapons and O-linemen to compete with just about anyone (if Addison stays/isn’t suspended).

They have cap some cap flexibility even if it doesn’t look like it right now on paper. The 2021 team had pushed every button at that point. This team hasn’t used all of those restructure and void year options.

I’d put them much more like 2019 on the timeline. They’re still absolutely good enough to seriously compete as a roster but the tension is building and they need to win.