Friday Mailbag: So, about Sam Darnold...

With the possibility of Sam Darnold being QB1, fans have questions

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. With another OTA practice under our belts, we have all the answers to everything Vikings related and nothing left to discuss.

Kidding.

Let’s dive right in….

@InformePurpura Do you have any prediction on which players will standout in the offseason?

I’m going to keep mentioning Jalen Nailor as a potential breakout guy until there’s evidence that I should stop mentioning Jalen Nailor as a potential breakout guy. I’m sure it’s an overreaction but Robert Tonyan looked really good in OTA practice. We don’t talk much about Mekhi Blackmon but he might have a chance to take a step forward and catch everyone’s eye during camp.

@DouG_ArmstronG_ How much per year will it take to sign Jefferson?

I’m sure Jefferson’s side wants to make sure he’s the highest paid non-QB position player so I’ll go with $35 million.

@Ragnarskingdom If you "had to" bet money on it, if we only add one more player via free agency what position will it be? (Bonus points for names)

Can I bet “nobody?” The only positions that I could see them adding is guard and receiver. Maybe one more defensive lineman. I wonder if they are keeping an eye on Connor Williams. He is rehabbing an injury and his agent said that he wouldn’t be looking to sign with a team until later in the summer. He’s a good interior lineman. Of course, Dalton Risner is still out there. Feels like they have moved on. Maybe Hunter Renfrow is similar to Risner where he’s asking for too much money and will eventually have to admit that nobody is going to pay him a lot. I’m not sure what Emmanuel Ogbah is doing but he could be another rusher.

@jeball7 2022 felt like a Kwesi/scouts draft. 2023 was Kwesi/Scouts/KOC and 2024 felt like the coaches, mainly KOC/Flores had more influence...agree?, disagree?

There is truth to that but it also feels like a rationalization. The truth is: They picked a guy who was incredible on a national championship team and was a physical freak. Nobody could have predicted that it would have gone this bad. Had Lewis Cine worked out, we would view the whole thing differently. It just didn’t work out. I do believe that they were trying to find secondary players who fit Donatell’s scheme and then when they switched schemes those guys didn’t fit as well but that’s not an excuse. Sometimes drafts just blow up in your face.

Obviously KOC had more influence in picking JJ McCarthy. Every draft process is a combination of the GM, coaches and scouts giving their input and making decisions. I’m sure Flores liked Dallas Turner because he was a top-10 caliber prospect and it’s a good fit. Day 3 usually belongs to the scouts in general. They make their case for guys they have been tracking and the GM tries to land those guys. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

So I don’t disagree that there is an effect to having Flores vs. Donatell in how they draft or that KOC has been more involved in the last two drafts getting Addison and McCarthy but every year is going to be different and it can be really random whether it works out or not.

@bigrose9 Media/ fans think Turner is a rusher, but Saban, Bill B, & B-Flo said his comp is Donte Hightower who was not a full rusher. What can we take from this.

Turner strikes me as more of a pure rusher than Hightower but nobody rushed the passer more than Hightower from the linebacker position when he was in his prime. The comparison might just be that Hightower was similarly sized with great length and had versatility to his game. I would guess that they are going to move Turner around and have high expectations for him as a pass rusher and run defender. My feeling on him is that he’s a pretty bright guy as well. Hightower was the standard for high IQ players. Doesn’t have to be a perfect 1-to-1 on their roles.

@alexjjlarsen From what you've seen, how will Darnold handle the pressure of having McCarthy waiting in the wings?

It seems like he’s embracing it. He had to be aware the Vikings were going to pick a quarterback on the day that he signed here, so I think he was mentally prepared for the whole thing on Day 1. I would also guess that KOC communicated that with him pretty well.

My first impression of Darnold is that he acts like a pro. He looked well prepared for practice and ran things smoothly and then didn’t seem offended or defensive about the line of questioning regarding McCarthy or the pressures of being a former top pick.

@DShepeck HOWS JJ LOO— What’s your safety depth early prediction?

Ope. I see what you did there. Safety feels like a pretty — safe — position to predict. Harry and Bynum playing the two deep safeties with Metellus in his hybrid role with Theo Jackson rotating in and Lewis Cine fighting to stay on the roster. Metellus’s role could be a bit different this year because it appears they want Harrison Smith to play fewer than 1,100 snaps. There might be sometimes where Metellus plays back with Bynum and Byron Murphy Jr. goes into the slot.

@StockMarketSco1 Choose 2 Vikings legends from the past (non-QB’s) that you could put on this 2024 team that would make them a SB contender overnight.

The most obvious picks would be Randy Moss and Alan Page because they could be added to any team to make them Super Bowl contenders. Let me try to go a little bit deeper with the challenge and say non-HOFers.

In that case I would go with six-time All-Pro and somehow non-Hall of Famer Kevin Williams. If they had this group of outside rushers built around one of the most dominant inside rushers ever, it would be scary within the front seven.

I’m sure you guys want me to pick a left guard here but I’ll go Anthony Carter. If they had a deep threat like him with Jefferson and Addison, it would be unstoppable.

Lots of potential combinations though. Henry Thomas and Robert Smith? Peak Keith Millard and Carl Lee?

@Rauzerrr Who would be your top pick for kick returner 2?

Ty Chandler. I thought he showed some instincts for returning last year. His burst is special and he has long speed too. If he’s playing a ton alongside Aaron Jones then maybe not but I think he’s well built for it. Probably after him Brandon Powell, though I see him as better fit for punt returning because I’m not sure he can run away from people in open space the same way as Nwangwu or Chandler.

@MarkLar18454726 It sounds like Brandel starts the season as LG 1. Who on this roster now is in competition with him for that job?

You wouldn’t think that I would have to look this up considering I was there at practice the other day and yet that’s where we’re at with the backup guards. If we assume Dan Feeney is more of a backup center and isn’t really competing with Brandel then the next man up after that is Henry Byrd. No, he has not ever played in a game. Tyrese Robinson is the other backup guard. No, he has not ever played in a game either. It’s odd that nobody else with experience has been brought in to compete.

@MoscowStoic Over or under 1.5 kick return touchdowns for Kene?

I would have to go with under here just because it’s really hard to return kicks for touchdowns but I honestly have no idea what this is going to look like at the NFL level. The speed of top-end players in the XFL is nothing like Kene Nwangwu. Teams might be a little unprepared and give up touchdowns off the bat or the returning teams might need a while to get going. Having seen it during the XFL, it has potential for creativity and big plays.

Pete… Hi Matthew, Friday Mailbag question for you. How much of a difference will having Aaron Jones make to the offense? Not just for the run part but also for the offensive play calling in general - could we now finally have some form of screen pass game to speak of this season?

Yeah, last year he averaged 7.1 yards per catch behind the line of scrimmage and 8.8 per catch between 0-9 yards (per PFF). If his numbers are even close to that then it’s going to be a huge asset to [insert QB1 here]. He’s just a difference maker in every area. He can create something out of nothing in the running game, break big plays when he gets chances and block effectively. He’s only allowed 21 career pressures on 300 pass blocking snaps over his career (per PFF). They have really been missing this type of all-around force player for a while. The only thing to be concerned about his health and continued production late into his career.

@dantaylor26 If you could make one change to the NFL that’s not about how the game is played, what would it be?

Easy. I would adopt the UFL’s replay system. For those who have not witnessed its beauty, I’ll give you an example. The other day there was a touchdown pass that was flagged for offensive interference. The call was challenged, they sent it up to the booth where viewers heard everything Dean Blandino said to the ref on the field and got a rundown of his reasons for confirming the call and then we went back to playing football in about 60 seconds. It was quick, transparent and reviewed something that the NFL seems to think is impossible to review. I wanted to give Dean a hug.

@aweste1 …I have an early mail bag question for you. What might we see as far as QB play in the preseason? First 2 years with KOC was a lot of sitting out but this year seems like we might get a very different approach.

I don’t expect very different from the perspective of most of the roster. It seems his philosophy is that the joint practices are better for starters than preseason games because they can run their actual stuff rather than vanilla plays to avoid putting anything on tape. With a lot of young players, I would assume there are more guys who will play than previous years but I’d be surprised if it’s a fundamental change.

What that means to the quarterback position is an interesting question. If Darnold is going to be the clear cut starter, then we can’t expect to see him much in preseason. McCarthy, if he’s well behind Darnold, should play every snap of every first half in the preseason. Get him as much work as possible.

@headcoach21 If Jefferson is missing Mini camp and/or training camp is it officially time to wonder about his contract situation??

If he isn’t at mini camp, then the team can fine him. The tension becomes real at that point because it’s a power move on his part to skip it and take the fine. But as far as worrying about whether it’s going to actually get done or not, that would be in training camp. It’s preferrable that he gets signed before camp so he can practice every day with Darnold and McCarthy. If we get into the first few days of camp before pads come on, it’s not a tragedy. Once the dog days of camp come along then it really matters and it’s going to feel pretty serious. That said, Nick Bosa and Dalvin Cook signed deals right before the start of the season and everything was fine. So it’s going to be a long time before you have to freak out. You can enjoy your summer.

@shleam1 How does signing JJ affect the cap more or less this year and the next? Can they still sign more players this year? #youtheman

It won’t impact the cap much this year or next. He’s set to make $19 million on the cap right now. They could push some money into this season to save space down the road but it won’t be massively different. As far as next year, if you look at any of the major position player contracts, they are usually pretty reasonable in the first year.

@ramseykincannon how do you solve aggregate-gate and other bs accounts

There is no answer. That’s social media. It basically forces the individual to read and decide what looks credible to them. We have a lot of people out there pretending to be media and pretending to have insight on the team just to feel important, I guess. It seems that they want to be in the business but have no actual talent so they just steal real reporters’ work to feel like they’re in media.

For the record, I have no issue with accounts who share articles and look for discussion with fans. There are lots of great fans out there who share stuff and have a good time talking about the team. So we’re only talking about a very tiny percentage of social media. But man it drives me insane when people steal parts of articles to rile up fans. It’s dishonest and pathetic. I can’t imagine why any person would want to spend their life scouring social media looking for stuff to get sports fans worked up. Same thing about weirdoes who do “jersey swaps.” There has to be better ways to use graphic design talent that putting Justin Jefferson in a Chargers jersey.

My only advice is for everyone to look at the account before you believe what you read. Is the person’s identify available? Does it look like the tweets have some sort of desperate or snarky tone that aims to get you to react but is severely lacking in substance? Do they link to the actual story they stole from? And if so, read that whole story rather than just reacting to the tweet.

@nick_cowherd_Are any members of the 2022 draft tradable (as opposed to cut)? If so, what players and what is their value?

I don’t think so. If a team is ready to move on from a draft pick that recent, it’s unusual that they get a huge return unless there is reason to think that player could still have a lot in the tank. With a two-year sample size, that’s a hard sell. The old late-round pick swap is always possible for just about anyone I suppose.

Stephanie…Very basic OTA question for you - Since Darnold is getting most of the reps with the first team, does JJ go off with other players/coaches to do the same things, or does he stand nearby and just take it all in, learning from observation?

For a big portion of the practice they split up onto two fields (or parts of the field when it’s indoors). The first and second-team guys on one side, third teamers on another one. They are both running their own practice at the same time. There are reps where they have 11-on-11 or 7-on-7 and the whole team is out there. That’s where McCarthy would be doing a lot more watching Darnold and learning then throwing and he would mix in a few times. He’s getting a ton of work as the third QB and they can bring him along slower than asking him to be 100% up to speed like Darnold.

Scott D…Every argument that has been made in favor of drafting a QBOTF which ultimately became McCarthy, can and should also be applied to Darnold. Sam outplayed Baker in Carolina. It seems like everyone is ignoring the fact that Darnold could easily mirror what Baker did in TB last year, with a better supporting cast. Do you sit McCarthy the entire season and follow the Mahomes plan Matthew?

Last year Baker went 9-8 with a 94.6 QB rating and graded 20th by PFF. He had significantly more success than Darnold before arriving in Tampa Bay. If that’s what the Vikings get out of Darnold it will be a good season but he shouldn’t enter the discussion for QB of the future unless his season is unbelievable. It absolutely matters that his previous sample size is very bad. You can explain away some QBs’ struggles but we’re talking about a guy who has a bottom five QB rating of any QB with more than 1,500 passes since 2010.

There are plenty of reasons to like Darnold’s fit here and think he could have a good season, it’s just not likely when we have that big a sample size that there is going to be a turnaround to the point where we’re asking if he should be *the* guy.

To the other part of your question, it’s totally fine if they want to sit McCarthy the entire season. It would drive everyone crazy, particularly when Darnold didn’t play well, and yet it seems completely reasonable when you consider that they want to do everything they can to set McCarthy up for success.

@EricVikesfan28 If JJ McCarthy shows in camp that he is ready and looks as good if not better than Darnold, do you think he would start week 1?

If he makes that type of progress and ends up outperforming Darnold, it would be really darn impressive and I do think he would start. McCarthy first has to make it into a competition and then prove that he’s ready to command the offense from Day 1. Not impossible, probably unlikely.

@pdefor Before we completely turn the page on Cousins, what was his best game with the Vikings?

Week 6, 2019 vs. Philadelphia. Against a pretty good team he went 22-for-29 with 333 yards and four TDs. That’s 11 yards per attempt. He had six big-time throws in that game to zero turnover worthy plays and his only INT was a dropped pass.

Bradley P…Matthew, I’m super late to the party so please forgive me. Regarding the extension that Goff signed I was floored. He’s good but he’s not, IMO, close to being top five. How much better does the decision KAM made to find a QB of the future considering Goff’s, and Cousins, contracts? Five million vs 50+! No brainer?

I’ll give my QB ranking spiel and then answer your question… The only thing that really matters is how good your offense is at scoring points with a particular quarterback and in that regard Goff has been top-five four times in his career. I’ve always felt that we got caught up on other stuff with Goff than the actual production — the fact he was traded for Stafford, missing a pass in the Super Bowl that would have likely won it, McVay calling plays in his headset etc. — but when you look at how his teams perform when they are talented around him, it’s among the best of the best.

Here’s a stat that might surprise you: Pro-Football Reference has a metric called “Approximate Value,” which is sorta like a Wins Above Replacement for football. It tries to isolate the individual’s contribution to a team’s offense or defense. By that number, the top QB since 2017 is Patrick Mahomes. The second best is Jared Goff. After that are Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. I think he’s a true franchise QB.

With that said, the gap between rookie deal and top deals is growing. Six years ago, the surplus value between the rookie deal and the top QB was $25 million. Now it’s $45 million. That’s like four good players worth. The reason the Lions can get away with it for now is that they have a lot of young players on rookie contracts. When those guys get expensive, it will be a problem for Detroit.

We have to keep in mind, though, that the rookie contract means nothing unless McCarthy plays well. If he gave them 75% of what Goff has done at his best, it would be a success.

Ben…What are the realistic range of outcomes regarding W/L for the Vikings this year?

It’s wider than it’s been in a long time. I can’t see them being absolutely terrible or winning the conference. So, somewhere between 6-11 and 10-7? It isn’t lost on me that the schedule is really difficult, particularly the first half of the year. That could make things pretty tough out of the gate as they adapt to a new quarterback. But I’ve always thought that a 7-win team on paper can get into the playoffs with good coaching and they have good coaching on both sides. Flores’ schematics and ability to identify talent alone gives them a chance to outperform expectations on defense and I actually think they are a more complete unit on defense roster wise than they were last year.

Wade….So far, has JJ McCarthy looked the part, so to speak? It’s probably not reasonable to expect him to be ready to start in the NFL at this point, but please tell he doesn’t look like a Kellen Mond, totally in over his head.

The reason we were all concerned about Mond from the first time we saw him in practice was because of the way he threw the football. The throwing motion was nothing like I’ve ever seen from NFL quarterbacks. It was stiff and mechanical and the ball came out flat for a guy with such good physical tools. He also looked totally lost trying to run anything under center. Normally I wouldn’t try to draw any real conclusions from OTAs, that one just stood out so much.

As far as McCarthy goes, he doesn’t look uncomfortable out there. Everyone has noted the arm strength — the ball explodes off his hand. He doesn’t look experienced or polished because he isn’t either one of those things yet. It’s good to know the starting point so we can track the progress.

layth…. Interesting to speculate about how new defensive personnel might allow Flores to be a bit more patient with his play calling. Is it possible that small D personnel improvement will lead to substantial improvement?

It could certainly lead to Flores not feeling like the only way he can create pressure is by sending more than five guys at the quarterback. If they can have Turner, Greenard, Van Ginkel and Tillery up front on third-and-long, that’s a good four-man rush in comparison to last year where it was all on Danielle Hunter’s shoulders.

The issue that I could see popping up would be if anyone gets hurt. Andre Carter II was taking reps with Van Ginkel not practicing the other day and while it’s possible Carter II takes another step, it would be a big ask for him to be a difference maker. The same goes at most positions. Cashman and Pace Jr. are good but there isn’t a veteran LB behind them that you feel good about and I’m not sure about the cornerback position yet either. If they stay fairly healthy though, it could be a stronger unit than last year.

Speedi…I feel for the first time the Vikings have a realistic plan to win the Super Bowl. The whole Kirk Debacle showed they didn't get the salary cap value of a rookie QB. When we knock on the door in 2009, it was mostly Brett Favre, and not the results of any kind of plan. Same in 1998. Do you agree?

In both ‘98 and ‘09, those teams were built over a number of years and then just exploded for one season but the concept of putting together a complete team slowly was there. Think about how they picked up their stars from ‘98. Acquiring Cris Carter, drafting Robert Smith, drafting Derrick Alexander, Orlando Thomas, Jake Read, Corey Fuller and finding Robert Griffith and John Randle out of nowhere. It took a long time but when they were all in their primes and they got Moss, it was unstoppable.

In ‘09, they had drafted Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Chad Greenway, Kevin Williams etc. and made the trade for Jared Allen all before Brett Favre got there.

To your point, yes, this feels like a more realistic plan than hoping that somehow Kirk Cousins would be different or dreaming that adding one nose tackle in free agency would change their fate as a middling team. This is a longer term plan to use the rookie QB contract to build around the existing cornerstone players that they have to try to build an Eagles or 49ers-like roster that is strong in all areas. It won’t happen right away and takes some good luck and opportunity but it’s the right path.

Jason… Why did Mattison not work last year? On paper everything about that made sense, but he seemed worse than he had been even when he was a back up toward the end of the year.

I have a few theories about that. The Vikings drafted him in 2019 to be an outside zone running back because they were adopting the Kubiak-Stefanski system. He ran more than 70% of the time between 2019-2021 with outside zone carries, according to PFF. O’Connell’s offense has a version of the outside zone but it isn’t the same as the other system and I’m not sure Mattison ever really grasped it the same way he was super comfortable with the Kubiak stuff.

The other part of my theory is that being a role player in the NFL is so much different than being a centerpiece. It’s more responsibility, more durability and way more pressure. Seeing him drop passes last year really made me think the pressure was getting to him. He always had really good hands before that. He was getting crushed on social media by fantasy football nuts and was letting down the team that extended him with hopes he could be RB1 and I just got the sense that he was struggling with confidence. When he ran the ball, he seemed to be lacking patience, like he wanted to prove his contract on every run.

Maybe I’m wrong and he just dropped off but it happens pretty often in pro sports that someone is in the exact right role and then can’t transfer their efficiency from part-time to full-time player.

Carl M…

What is the plan at nose tackle? Assume 1 of three options: deal with what they have and target in draft next year, hope for a surprise cut to sign or trade. Seems like they are in the same spot as last year…even with the new pieces, attacking the QB is still a challenge without someone clogging up the middle and requiring two interior guys to stop the pressure….

The plan seems to be to rotate Phillips, Bullard, Tillery and Jonah Williams into those interior positions, probably not with any of them being really asked to do the true 3-4 nose tackle thing that Gilbert Brown or Ted Washington did back in the day. Per PFF, Phillips was the nose tackle right over the center on 169 out of 838 snaps last year. Bullard never played that spot. Group effort.

Not only is it tough when you don’t have a DT that can take up two blockers in passing situations but the actual sack and pressure production out of the defensive tackle spot is going to be bottom third of the league.

It pretty much speaks to where the roster stands right now. There are still spots that aren’t strong enough to make an argument for them being a top-tier complete roster. Next year in the draft or free agency DT will need to be more seriously addressed.

It speaks to the difficulty finding this position and value when you think about how long we have been talking about them trying to replace it.

Kyle S…On a recent podcast, you mentioned you could have been in Seattle covering the Mariners instead of covering the Vikings if things had worked out differently. If you weren't covering the Vikings, what would be your ideal beat?

Yeah, the story was that I had a job interview in 2015 in Seattle to become the Mariners pre/postgame host. Met Dave Sims, their play-by-play man, who was really nice. Great broadcaster too. It just didn’t end up working out but I got the offer from 1500ESPN in Minneapolis to move to Minnesota to cover the Vikings about a year later and it was the best thing that’s ever happened to me (outside of the wife saying “yes”). I love covering this team and living in this place so I’d say it’s pretty darn tough to top. The Vikings are a top-notch organization who are very helpful with the media. Not every team is like them. The team is endlessly interesting and the fans are loyal and never stop obsessing over every detail. Beats better than this are hard to find.

I would probably pick a sport that I haven’t been around before. I haven’t covered basketball before so the NBA or WNBA would be interesting. I’m jealous of my colleagues getting to cover this Wolves run right now. The Strib does good Lynx coverage but a lot of W teams get shortchanged in the media coverage. It would be cool to bring a type of in-depth analysis that I do for football over to that sport.

I don’t see anything changing any time soon though. You guys have made Purple Insider a success and I can’t tell you how much I appreciate that.

Jeff…Most books have the Vike's '24 win total at 7. Same as last year. This seems crazy to me so I'm taking the over. Our offense is at least as good as it was last year - even without Kirk. We know Darnold has a stronger arm and the silver lining to his interception rate is the big plays he is willing to attempt. With better protection & weapons I think Darnold will be just fine this year. On defense, losing Hunter is bad however we've added 2 veteran edge guys plus a 1st round draft choice to replace him. We've also added depth talent. I think a second year in the Flores system will mean a level of improvement all by itself. Detractors might say that our division is stronger than last year. That's true, but we went 2-4 in the division last year and it's not crazy to think they could do the same this year. Can they find 6 wins in the other 11 games? Or 5 plus one more division win? It's worth the gamble to me, and I'm far from a wide-eyed fan - although current GM & Coach have me feeling positive for the first time in decades. Decades.

I would never try to give anybody gambling advice because I don’t want you to lose money because of something I said. I can say that I think sportsbooks are a little more down on them than they should be. Coaching matters a lot and offensive weapons matter a lot. It’s hard to completely dismiss a team that has both of those things.

Joe J… Matthew - I love Harrison Smith and am glad he’ll be back as most Vikings fans likely are. I’m curious about your HOF line in the story. I know we Vikings fans probably have pretty strong feelings that Smith is a future HOF, but what about outside of our fandom? Do you think he has the backing nationally? I just never get the feeling he has been appreciated nationally as much as we appreciate him.

I wrote an article last year making the case for Harrison to one day make the Hall of Fame. It’s my opinion that, compared to his defensive back peers, he has a strong case. What I discovered in my research is that defensive backs generally have an absurdly high bar for getting into the Hall. By Pro-Football Reference’s Hall of Fame monitor, his chances are low. We’ll have to see how that argument plays out. The Vikings haven’t had much luck with Jim Marshall or Kevin Williams getting in, so it might be hard unless he gets a championship and some great playoff moments on the national stage.

Jordan D…Do you think Kirk could actually help make Kyle Pitts an elite, top producing NFL tight end, or do you think Kyle Pitts is what he is and just like "budding superstar" Irv Smith Jr. we should expect more of the same from Kyle Pitts even if there is a lot of hype that next year will be different?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitts puts up better numbers. Will he ever justify the draft status? That’s harder to say.

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