Friday mailbag: Roster reduction, throwing deep and the best Super Bowl team
Answering the best football questions that Twitter had to offer this week
*Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
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Happy Friday everyone, let’s see what’s on Vikings fans’ minds this Friday….
Kristian L G Nielsen: what is your most pessimistic or realistic guess on when the NFL season will start?
The most pessimistic is that it won’t start at all. The thought that keeps running through my mind is: What kind of training camp outbreak would it take for the NFL to have to put the whole league on hold? What’s an acceptable number of COVID cases they’ll accept and keep pressing on? And how does it all work? If a QB gets it, do the other QBs have to quarantine? What if a head coach gets it and becomes seriously ill?
Realistically, I still think the league is going to start on time. Teams will urge players and their families to take precautions and they will test like crazy and get through camp — which could be helped by practices being outside in the heat, where (not a scientist!) it seems to spread less.
The potential trouble could be if we get into the season and this thing hasn’t subsided. Could it get to a point where the season has to be put on hold? So many questions that we just can’t answer but they seem to be pushing forward as hard as possible. I’m going on the assumption this thing is going to happen.
@OleMart26434417 If 2020 became the last season with Coach Zimmer. Which coach would fit Vikings the most moving forward?
Let me say first: Beware of getting rid of a coach who you know is good. We can debate whether we think he’s a top 10 or top 15 coach but we all agree he has one of the best records since coming into the league and his defenses have been consistently very good (which is not easy to maintain). The team has been at least in the playoff mix even in his worst years and made the NFC Championship game during his best year. He’s the best coach they have had in a long time. I’m not saying there’s no scenario where they should move on, just remember the grass isn’t always greener.
All that said, it would depend on Kubiak. If Kubiak wasn’t going to stick around as offensive coordinator, it would make sense to look for someone who has previous success as an offensive coach and has been around the NFL awhile. In 2021 this roster is going to be ready to win so picking the hottest college coach would be pretty risky. Someone like Eric Bieniemy would fit the bill. Or Greg Roman? Obviously Kirk Cousins is different from Lamar Jackson by a million miles but he’s an offense-focused coach who knows how to maximize his QB.
If they wanted to stick with Kubiak as OC and the same type of defense, Andre Patterson would deserve consideration. Maybe someone with previous experience like Todd Bowles if they go the defense route?
@ATKing53632390 Which super bowl-winning team of the past 10 years do you think was the best? Broncos defense was pretty pretty good...but that offense...
I’d give my vote to the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. One of the most dominant defenses of the era. They picked off 28 passes and allowed just 16 touchdown passes. Opposing QBs had a 63.4 rating against them. In other words, on average they turned the opposing quarterback into Nathan Peterman.
That year the Seahawks also had a very efficient offense that scored on 40% of their drives (which was top five) and had the sixth lowest turnover percentage. We didn’t think of Wilson as an elite QB yet but Seattle’s passing game that year was fourth in Expected Points Added and No. 2 in yards per pass attempt.
That’s not even mentioning the final score of the Super Bowl, 43-8, over an amazing Denver offense.
Behind them, I think the next best team is 2015 Carolina even though they lost in the Super Bowl. Panthers were first in points scored, sixth in points against. After that, I would order them like: 2019 KC, 2017 Philly, 2016 New England, 2018 Patriots, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens, 2015 Denver.
@alexjjlarsen Whose style will more impact the other: Bill Belichick or Cam Newton?
Unless Cam goes 2015-level bonkers, the Patriots are still going to win with defense. Heck, the won 12 games last year despite having a QB with a rating under 90.
Cam is going to work with one of the smartest offensive minds in the game in Josh McDaniels so there’s a very good chance that he’s put in a position to succeed with higher percentage throws but it’s still hard to see them becoming an elite offense without his accuracy finding early 2018 form.
What the Pats should be looking for is to have an offense that can move the chains and maintain possession without turning the ball over and then hope to get the occasional explosive play from Cam’s arm or legs. That might be enough to have them toward the top of the AFC East.
From what I’ve heard from players who have been around Cam, I don’t think there will be any issue with him and Belichick getting along. They both will be seeing 2020 as a grudge year.
@benjackson0812 With out Everson Griffen do you see Daniel Hunter move to the right side?? Does it matter what side the DE lines up on??
Could see Hunter sliding over to the left side occasionally to give opponents a different look but… why change a good thing? Reggie White was mostly on the right side and he did OK. I don’t think there’s a big difference in the value of the two positions and there might be an advantage to having Hunter face most teams’ second best tackle.
The concern you might have is that teams put a lot more focus on Hunter with chips from running backs and tight ends. I asked the good folks at PFF about the split between extra blocking help between Griffen and Hunter and was told that Griffen (as you might expect) drew more attention. It will be up to the rest of the D-line to make them pay if Hunter is being double teamed on every passing play.
@rk2022 Are Clowney and Griffen gambling on waiting to long and taking a chance the cap may lower with no fans
Oh they most certainly are. I still have questions about why Everson decided to post an Instagram statement about leaving Minnesota before he had another team ready to sign him. It would have made sense to leave that door open just in case. Now that everyone’s spent their money, it would be downright shocking if Griffen got a multi-year deal for big money. But if you’re a contending team, a one-year deal for a decent chunk of change still makes sense (say for Seattle or Arizona).
Clowney overplayed the heck out of his hand. He’s a good player. On the Vikings’ defense, he’d be a wrecking ball. But there are a lot of very good defensive linemen in the world these days. Who’s spending $15-$20 million on an oft-banged-up player who had three sacks last year? The old “prove-it” deal seems in play with him. Hey, it worked for Sheldon Richardson.
@McKinneyMN In a distance throwing competition, who would win among the NFC North QBs and how far is you think each QB could throw?
I’m going to still say that Rodgers has the No. 1 arm in the NFC North and a top three arm in the NFL. His mobility isn’t what it used to be but there’s plenty of juice when he lets it rip. Plus it flies so perfectly through the air that it just keeps sailing. Matt Stafford is next. He would be very close. Sometimes I think Stafford is like a golfer on the Tiger Woods video game who will drive the ball a million yards but makes you nuts with the number of shots that miss the fairway. But if he’s rearing back and firing it long, he’s beating out most others.
Mitch Trubisky might be able to sling it a little farther than Cousins. He’s not good at quarterbacking but there’s a reason he was drafted so high. Tools are there. Foles and Kirk could be close. Cousins ran up to throw a Hail Mary two years ago against Detroit and it still went only about 60 yards.
Based on watching the old QB Challenge at the Pro Bowl, I’ll guess Rodgers throws it 75 yards, Stafford 72, Trubisky 68, Cousins and Foles 64.
Side note: Bring back the longest throw competition!
@BaseballNorm with potential of salary cap staying flat or not jumping up next year, what players on Vikings could be cap casualties
Our friends at OverTheCap.com make the candidates easy to pick out. Whether they would actually cut them is unclear. Harrison Smith can be let go to create $10 million in cap space with no dead money. That one screams restructure. They could make around $8 million by letting go Anthony Barr but would have to eat an equal amount of dead space. Same with Kyle Rudolph, who would create $5 million but carry just over $4 million in dead space.
It will depend on how they all play. In 2017 we wouldn’t have expected Xavier Rhodes to be a bottom five cornerback just two years later. If Barr and Rudolph aren’t major contributors, they could be out.
Riley Reiff could make the Pro Bowl and won’t be coming back with Ezra Cleveland behind him and $11 million in space created by cutting him.
After that there are so many young players that options are limited. The side effect, however, of that many young players is that they’ll probably be able to afford to keep everyone they want even if the cap goes down or stays stagnant. They created a lot of 2021 money this offseason.
@Vikesfan691 Not considering contract implications, which QB would you rather have going forward: Burrow, Murray or Wentz? I’m struggling quite a bit with this one.
I’ll go Kyler Murray.
Of the three, he has the best arm talent and most special playmaking ability/athleticism. My pal Derrik Klassan (who writes for Football Outsiders about QB tape) said he was blown away by Murray getting through his reads quickly last year. Add that with his athletic gifts and an MLB arm and you’ve got a superstar.
Wentz is very good and capable of winning an MVP if he’s got an incredible team around him but there’s some inconsistency in accuracy that would drive you a little crazy and the injuries are a serious concern.
I couldn’t pick Burrow without seeing him play an NFL game. He’s also like two years older than Murray.
@Erikjeriksen Who are the highest paid current Vikings at risk of not making the final roster
Something pretty serious would have to happen for Reiff to be cut this year so barring a surprise drop off the face of the earth in talent from someone else I’ll go with Pat Elflein and Tajae Sharpe.
If other guards emerge, they could move on from Elflein just two years after thinking he’d be a Viking for a very, very long time. Injuries and moving positions have really made for a tough last two years and it was clear he couldn’t handle interior pass rush at guard. Who knows what Sharpe’s going to bring. It reminds you of Jordan Taylor and Kendall Wright from the last two years. He’s also at the disadvantage of not knowing Kubiak’s system like others in the receiver competition do.
Jorticus of the Frozen Lands: since you just brought it up a bit ago: who's your favorite non-superstar in a Madden game?
How much time do you have?
On the old school Madden’s for Super Nintendo guys like Rocket Ismail and John Jett had outrageous speed and the CTH rating didn’t really matter that much so I loved using the Raiders.
Later on, bad QBs who had speed were always loads of fun. Seneca Wallace comes to mind right away.
I’d take kick returners like David Palmer, Devin Hester, Tamarik Vanover, Dante Hall etc. and put them in the backfield and then throw screens to them all day.
Of course, any extremely fast tight end. On a recent Madden, MyCole Pruitt became a megastar.
For the purpose of a memorable rags-to-riches guy on an old game, I turned Antwan Randal-El into the GOAT receiver because I liked his name.
@KrisKUSTRADIO You are responsible for re-naming the Kansas City and Washington football teams. What are the names and why?
I’m with the people who said Redtails as an homage to the Tuskegee airmen. That’s cool. I always thought it was cool to call them The Washington Football Club. Kind of a soccer-ish, throwback kinda thing. Someone on Twitter said they Washington Expos.
KC I’d go with the Monarchs. First, an all-time great Negro League team. Second, I use that name for my strat-o-matic baseball team. They have the coolest jersey/hat combo. I haven’t seen a whole lot of pressure for the Chiefs to change. I could be wrong. Maybe just get rid of the “chop.”
@Ry_Rael If you had to build a starting roster consisting of only Vikings Players you’ve covered what would that team look like.
Ry clarified that he meant players I’ve covered from a “most interesting” standpoint rather than “good at football,” so here goes:
QB: Sean Mannion — A really smart guy who loves talking ball. Most starters are tough to really get to know.
RB: Latavius Murray — One of the most intelligent, accessible, thoughtful players I’ve been around. The first time we spoke was for a story about his friend who had recently been murdered and he was very open and trusted me to do justice with the story. That was unusual.
(Dalvin Cook and Alex Mattison are both insightful and easy to talk with… Latavius is an all-timer)
WR: Stefon Diggs — It took a lot of trying to get him to talk on the record for stories but when he did, it was great. Brilliant about the game. Once broke down Tecmo Bowl tape for me.
(Give Adam Thielen credit for always being accessible, even if he’s answering his 20,000th question of the week)
OL: Rashod Hill — Hands down the nicest person for reporters to talk with. Great attitude, likes to joke around and will break things down really well.
DL: Tom Johnson — Tom is smart as all hell and very serious about his craft. I learned a lot from him.
LB: Eric Kendricks — This offseason people really found out about what kind of person Kendricks is with his COVID and social justice efforts.
DB: Terence Newman — Up there with Latavius Murray as the GOATs of my reporting career. Newman would break down things in more detail than you could understand and was willing to teach you what it all meant.
@vike_you If the 2017 Vikings were an action movie, what action movie would they be?
I can’t say that I’m any kind of movie expert but I enjoy Bond movies. It’s a lot like Skyfall because Bond went through a lot in that movie and there were some pretty wild moments but the end was pretty tragic.
The Minneapolis Miracle game alone was like Mad Max: Fury Road.
@BIG_dannn Will singing Barr be the ultimate “maybe we shouldn’t have done that” move during the Cousins era ? In that that money could of gone of been used else where to help improve the team. If so what moves would you have made for the team then and now
As much as I believe Mike Zimmer when he talks about Barr’s hidden value, linebackers just aren’t getting paid these types of big bucks unless they are elite in coverage. That makes it hard to justify what Barr was paid on his fifth-year option in 2018 and what he’s set to make over the next couple years. Last year wasn’t a problem since he only carried a $5.6 million cap hit but that goes up to $12.7 million this year and $15.5 million next year.
If they hadn’t talked him into returning rather than going to the Jets, they might have been able to add a guard and veteran corner with that space.
Eric Wilson’s success as a fill-in makes it tougher. Over 16 games, there would be a difference but whether that’s worth big money is questionable.
Still Barr isn’t the worst when it comes to cap space vs. production. Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph’s 2019 space combined for around $25 million and neither was anywhere near the player they were when they signed extensions.
@VikingAfterDark Now that your on your own independent platform are you able to have guests on that you weren’t before? Really enjoy the new guests so far. Are radio stations constricted on who they can and cannot have on their network? Or do you just have more freedom to bring new people on?
I hope so!
Tyler Conklin and Alex Mattison were both terrific podcast guests. Aiming to do more long conversations like that in the future.
I’m sure there are rules in the broadcast partner agreements about how many interviews are supposed to take place and things like that. I definitely have more freedom now that I’m not with a “competing” station of the broadcast partner. Hopefully I can catch up with Paul Allen or Ben Leber and have them on the show sometime. I wouldn’t have been able to do that before.
@jasnyder123 Why are people writing off Odenigbo still sliding inside on 3rd with Wonnum as a the edge pass rusher.
I wrote a few weeks ago that it would make a lot of sense to continue to move Odenigbo around. He was very good rushing over guards and they should continue doing that if possible. Zimmer is going to have to be creative with his versatile players all over the defense.
The problem is that we don’t know if Wonnum can play or if Zettel has anything in the tank or if James Lynch will be able to step right into that third-down rushing role. If there’s nobody coming off the edge that is disruptive, it might be better for Odenigbo to stay in the same spot all the time.
@PalpatinesRobes How does the pandemic play in developing a roster. Despite the cap situation, will lower round draft picks and free agents have less of a chance to make the roster due to the lack of OTAs and a shortened preseason?
There are a bunch of spots on the active roster that rookies can fill. The rest probably end up landing on an expanded practice squad. There could be some agreement about signing other teams’ rookies that they cut (or maybe an unwritten agreement not to do it this year). The guys who will be hurt the most are the UDFAs who never see a single day of practice. ESPN reported that teams won’t be taking 90 guys to camp.
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