Friday mailbag: Reagor time?
Vikings fans want to know if we are going to see more Jalen Reagor soon
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by Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone. Let’s get right into your questions…
@JoshuaR_Smith What’s up with the Vikings’ first-down struggles on offense? They seem to consistently throw incomplete or run for little to no gain on first, which is problematic for any set of downs. Do the stats bear that out? Is this a KOC weakness so far?
Your instincts on this one are right. The Vikings are 26th in yards per play on first down. Now here’s a weird stat: Somehow they have the second most first downs gained on first down. This is a completely boom-or-bust offense. Here’s a funny example: Kirk Cousins has the fourth best completion percentage in the NFL on throws over 20 yards. The only guys ahead of him are Tua, Mahomes and Geno. But Kirk is only throwing it over 20 yards on 8.7% of his passes, second lowest in the league. The other thing I notice in the stats is that they aren’t running very often on first down. They are 20th in rush attempts on first down. Maybe a little more Dalvin on first down would help them set up play-actions on second-and-medium. Right now Kirk is averaging less yards per attempt on play-action than without, which has never happened in his career. So, there are a lot of layers. But they need more consistent production on first down so they aren’t relying on high variance of third down conversions all the time.
@bgarmani I’m alarmed at the number of players on the injury report with an illness designation. Any idea if any or all of them are likely to play Sunday? Any word on Dantzler and Darrisaw?
I’d be surprised if Darrisaw played since he hasn’t been fully participating in practice. Dantzler sounds like there’s a good chance based on the way they’ve been talking about him. Hunter missing Thursday with the illness is a little concerning. I’d be surprised if anyone else missed the game.
@BrodziakKyle Who is the more important receiver the rest of the season: Reagor or Osborn?
It’s still Osborn by a country mile. They clearly trust KJ to be a complete receiver, run the whole route tree, have the details of the offense correct and run block. They just don’t seem to have anything that’s dialed up to highlight what he can do. I might be wrong and maybe Cousins is checking out of those plays but based on the fact he thrived last year, it just seems like he’s mostly a checkdown option or decoy to get Jefferson open. If there’s any game where they might be able to get him rolling, it’s against Detroit. I think they should use Reagor more — but like 10 plays per game, not take the role of an all-around receiver who’s been in the offense since Day 1.
@jrm531 Ty Chandler was a stud in the preseason, but wasn’t used before his injury. Is he a 2023 guy to look at? Or do you think he could provide anything meaningful to this offense for the late/postseason? Also, what do you see, that keeps Reagor off the field with a struggling WR2/3?
He’s definitely a guy to look for next year. They aren’t taking Cook or Mattison out of the game unless one of them is injured. It’s great that Chandler flashed in preseason but he literally carried the ball 15 times against horrendous competition. With Mattison’s contract up, he’s next in line for RB2 (assuming Cook is still on the team) but you won’t see much of him this year unless he plays Week 18 in a meaningless game. As far as Reagor goes, it’s pretty simple: They don’t trust him to be able to handle any sort of load. Wes Phillips alluded to him still trying to get the details of the offense down and they aren’t going to cater things to him the same way they might with TJ Hockenson. He should be used in a handful of plays to get the ball in his hands per game but as a complete receiver, well, there’s a reason he’s here and not in Philly.
@smccullough5 The fact that Cousins isn't on the injury report is truly amazing - he was pummeled like hamburger meat by the Jets. Assuming Cousins stays healthy, the Viks clinch soon and the team wants to rest Cousins, do you see Mullens being able to win a few games to keep the 2 seed alive?
They won’t rest Cousins outside of Week 18. I can see the logic for sitting him down for two weeks if the No. 1 seed is out of reach but there’s a balance between getting a guy healthy and sitting him for so long that he’s not in rhythm when he comes back. Based on his career record of health, I don’t see them as being afraid to play him through Week 17.
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Who gets more catches the rest of the year: Johnny Mundt, CJ Ham, or Jalen Reagor?
I want to say Reagor because it makes sense to start working him in more often but the logical answer might still be Johnny Mundt. If Reagor gets even a few plays per game, he could have an impact based on his explosiveness alone but Mundt is going to get those little play-action checkdowns and such when they put in big personnel. Maybe the tally ends up 5-4. One thing we can say O’Connell missed in scouting the Vikings’ roster when he got here was the one or two plays a year that CJ Ham has that end up going for 30 yards. He catches somebody off guard every so often and we haven’t seen that yet this year. It’s time to run the FB draw, Kev.
@jtlaurie With injuries plaguing our CBs (Booth Jr. gone for rest of season, Evans now on IR and Danzler coming back from IR), what do you think the Vikings will do to address this issue? Pick up a CB from someone’s practice squad or FA, maybe add Metellus into the mix or something?
They have Shelley and Kris Boyd and then two guys on the practice squad in Tay Gowan and Parry Nickerson who have been around a little. That’s about the best they can do at this point. And pray that Dantzler stays healthy.
@NicholasMMiller You've talked a lot this week about the Vikings having the opportunity to get closer to the stats of a real contender over the last 5 weeks. What roughly do our numbers need to be to reach that on average? Would be nice to know a benchmark while watching games.
Usually teams who reach the Super Bowl have top-five offenses. The Vikings average 24.1 PPG at the moment. They’d need to get to 26.5 to crack the top five. I’m not sure having a top-five passing EPA is going to make it unless they go completely nuts through the air. So far this year their passing game has been worth 56 points over expected while the top five are all over 100. Defense is a lot more muddy but right now the Vikings are 22nd in points per game allowed at 23.3 per game, which is on pace to allow 396 points total. The only teams to make the Super Bowl since 2010 with more than 396 points allowed were 2013 Denver, 2011 NYG and 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Two of those three had MVP QBs. And as far as point differential, only those same weird 2011 Giants had a negative point differential and reached the Super Bowl. Everyone else was over plus-50 and only five of the 24 teams were below plus-100.
@headcoach21 Is the Russell Wilson trade the most one sided trade in recent memory??
If the Arizona Cardinals weren’t a garbage fire, the DeAndre Hopkins trade would be talked about never-endingly. Trading second-rounder pick and a washed running back for one of the top five receivers in Roger Goodell’s football league is hysterical. And it was instantly made worse by Diggs getting a first. The Raiders traded multiple picks for Antonio Brown and he didn’t even make it through camp. Trent Richardson for a first. This one is horrific, for sure, but not alone in its badness. Caveat emptor, and such.
@NicholasM_1993 Is Ed Ingram turning a corner?
It’s possible but he’s only three weeks removed from giving up seven pressures. The quality of competition down the stretch might help his PFF grade at the end of the year but I don’t think there’s reason to be less concerned. It’s not like the problems only happened in September.
@StockMarketSco1 I’m concerned with bringing Darrisaw back too soon. Should the Vikings just wait until the playoffs to bring him back? Can Kirk survive that long??
Concussions are very hard to put a finger on. If he’s ready to go and they wait an extra week or two, that’s probably smart. Asking him to sit until the playoffs and then throwing him in against Montez Sweat or something would be quite the challenge, even for a player of his caliber. But you’re right to be concerned. Multiple concussions in any season is scary.
@ryanbrown77 I have a theory about Kirk's numbers/efficiency (non-JJ) dropping this year: our screen/swing game is garbage. Passes that in years' past reliably gained chunk (or at least positive) yards seem to consistently lose big yardage. Is that bearing itself out in the numbers/film?
A little. Compared to his best screen year in 2019, yes. This year he’s gaining a putrid 3.6 yards per screen attempt and screens have only gained 236 yards, just 8.0%. Under Stefanski he gained 7.5 yards per screen attempt and totaled 642 yards, which made up 17.8% of his total passing yardage. But in comparison to regular years, not really. Last season was 4.5 YPA and 9.4% and 2020 was 6.2 and 9.3%. It’s a factor and it needs to be better but it isn’t the reason his numbers are down. It’s the lack of deep passes. Only 8.7% of his throws are going 20+ whereas that number has been over 12% every year since 2019. The intermediate stuff (10-19) is also way less efficient. He’s never been below 11 yards on 10-19 throws since ‘19 but this year he’s at 9.4.
A combination of things, as Kirk often says.
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