Friday mailbag: QB questions and safe picks
Vikings fans are seeing more and more buzz about their team taking a QB and want to know if it's legit
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By Matthew Coller
Countdown to draft day folks, we’re almost there. Let’s dive right into your questions…
@kyleshaner The Packers going all in on receivers, after years of not investing in weapons for Rodgers, would be funny … perhaps only eclipsed by the Jets drafting a quarterback in the first round. What potential draft comedy would you like to see?
If we are going for absurdity here, the Texans drafting Bijan Robinson No. 2 overall would be hilarious and isn’t completely impossible because…. Texans. I know the Broncos don’t have any picks but it would be funny if they took the Purdue quarterback. Imagine the Falcons passing up on Anthony Richardson and taking a tight end. What if they Bears did their whole Justin Fields song and dance and then picked Richardson with the ninth pick anyway. I could see Jim Irsay drafting a household plant at No. 4 overall or the Cardinals staying at No. 3 and going linebacker. What if the Patriots picked a tall sixth-round QB from a Big Ten school to send Mac Jones a message? You could probably roast any team here. Vikings kicker in round three… on and on.
@rk2022 Are receivers like Zay Flowers at any disadvantage being less than 6 feet. I wouldn't want take a quarterback at 5 ft 10 like Flowers including Bryce Young.
There’s a cutoff, historically speaking. If you’re under 5-foot-9, it’s going to be a tough ride. There are very few players who have worked out at that height. Yet at 5-foot-10, there are a handful of players like Antonio Brown and Tyler Lockett who have been very good. The thing with Flowers is that he isn’t just 5-foot-9, he’s also 182 pounds. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that there’s no easy way to tell if some of this year’s undersized guys will work out despite their size — and that’s definitely true but the risk factor is definitely higher with Flowers because he’s that small.
@Brian_0008 What would be the Vikings equivalent of the Twins scoring 9 runs in the first inning at the Bronx?
Making every field goal in the regular season?
@chadthelesser With all the talk about the Vikings interest in Will Levis and then suddenly Hendon Hooker, how likely is it that it's all smoke to cover up the player (qb or no) that they're REALLY interested in?
I don’t think the idea that they’re looking long and hard at the QB class is smoke. That’s just common sense with Kirk’s situation and the way they have talked about this class has been different than last year. Some years we have been able to pin down exactly what they were going to do in the first round (like 2020 when it was obviously going to be receiver and corner) and other years have very much been up in the air. I feel like this is one of the hardest years to guess.
@Zenkid__ Do you think it’s a total cop-out for ppl are this time of the year to say “oh they prob look at qbs next year who knows the USC kids pretty good”. Especially with Kirk and the risk-averse nature of the Wilfs. Seems like total nonsense.
I don’t think it’s a cop out to talk about 2024 as the year they’ll draft a quarterback instead of this year, it’s just a realistic scenario. If the top three QBs go off the board as quickly as expected and they don’t have confidence in Levis or Hooker, they won’t have any other choice but to wait. If we’re being honest with ourselves, there’s a good chance they are drafting higher than 23 next year and will have more draft capital to move up to get their guy than this year.
@nurseintime If the Vikings had traded down with New Orleans last year and had the 10th pick, who would they target? Would they have to trade up for a qb?
If they had the 10th overall pick, they would probably be desperately trying to get a hold of Arizona’s No. 3 overall selection to take one of the top three QBs. If they couldn’t get into the top three and missed out on the best QB prospects, probably Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Maaaaybe Jalen Carter but I’m not sure how they would view some of the problems.
@GriffRobMike What Vikings player is most likely to be traded on draft night to move up in the 1st?
I suppose they could try to use Dalvin Cook or Za’Darius Smith to move up a couple spots if that’s possible but that doesn’t seem like a particularly likely scenario. If either are traded, I would expect the best they could do would be a third or fourth-round pick for either of them. I would say Danielle Hunter here if he didn’t carry a significant dead cap hit if he’s moved before June 1.
@kyleshaner Instead of putting franchises in Europe, the NFL could increase the number of international games by making every team’s 17th game an international game. That would be 16 international games instead of the current five. How likely do you think this option is for the NFL?
That’s a much better option than having an international division but the NFL understands that it’s becoming a worldwide game and they’re going to do everything they can to take advantage of that. It’s hard to see players being OK with being drafted and having to travel to Germany — though for millions of dollars maybe they won’t mind, I’m not sure. One thing is for sure though: If they’re going to send every team overseas, they need to make sure the turf is better wherever they play than it was last year.
@John2Quick4Me Vikes seem like prime candidates to trade back as they need to reload the roster with talent. But whose a R1 player you think they can’t pass up if he is there at their original pick?
Aside from the obvious quarterbacks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Joey Porter Jr. and Calijah Kancey are the three who have realistic possibilities of being there and can’t be passed up.
@tjmamme Which position or position is statically most safe in rd1. Like historically has the best probability of success.
The website Arrowhead Pride looked at the defensive positions and success relative to position and the most noticeable part of their investigation was that almost every All-Pro at edge rusher and cornerback was a first-round pick. The rates at which they became Pro Bowlers were lower but if you want the best of the best you can’t hope that mid-round steals are going to happen at those freak-athlete positions. I’m not sure anything is really safe in the first round. When PFF looked at positional draft success for each team, it was all over the map, as you’d expect. I do think positions like tight end and linebacker are harder to evaluate the jump from college than receiver or offensive tackle but there’s no exact science to it.
@KyeBaxter Rodgers went from MVP to looking average in an offseason. Kirk keeps himself in outstanding shape, but father time is undefeated. Are there signs to look for when reviewing Cousins last season that were concerning?
Yeah, by every statistical measure except game-winning drives, his numbers went down. He had his lowest completion percentage, yards per attempt, QB rating, QBR, net yards per attempt and PFF grade since joining the Vikings. One NextGen stat kinda stood out — his longest completion was 50 yards in the air. A few years ago he hit one from 60 yards. Leading the league in QB hits taken is pretty concerning too. That doesn’t exactly prove age is coming for him soon but it’s enough evidence not to sign him to a fully guaranteed three-year deal. Good QBs do not usually play great into their late-30s and 40s like the legends do. It becomes extremely risky to lock into an older QB.
@tua76466_g Ben Goessling said on 9 to noon that he thinks Vikings would let levis slide even if available at 23. Assuming this is true, is it much more likely we select a qb in rounds like 3-4 this year? Also what is your % chance Kirk is qb here in 25?
Nobody truly knows until it happens. It seems like momentum started building with Levis’s pro day that his accuracy is so concerning that he might be the guy that drops. We have been sold on huge-armed guys being top picks before like Malik Willis and Christian Hackenberg and then it turned out the league was meh on them. It wouldn’t shock me if that was Levis. Though I’m always afraid of overconfidence when it comes to predicting the draft. I’m not sure that they will bother with a mid-round QB with so few draft picks. That would seem wasteful considering the odds of success are so low and they have so many other needs. I’ll go with about 3% chance Cousins is still a Viking in 2025.
@JPM3_MN Could drafting a 3rd round or later OG like Chandler Zavala be a decent strategy (assuming there's no other good fits/values at "need" positions available at the pick), given Cleveland's contract status? Could develop for a year, and possibly step in for '24 if Ezra leaves.
I get where you’re coming from — and yes, if there’s no other good fits or values in the middle rounds then it makes sense — but after watching the debacle of them chasing their tails with high and mid-round interior offensive linemen, I think free agency is probably a better place to get IOL. I don’t mean scrap heap players like they have been forced into during the Kirk years. Legitimate proven players once they are in better cap health.
@headcoach21 Who really has the leverage, the Jets or the Packers??
Everybody and nobody. Both teams have something the other wants. Both teams need it to happen. Both know how this is going to look if they don’t get it done. They have already promised the public that this is going down, it’s time to just bang out the deal and release us from this nightmare TV debate topic.
@matthewkrier Do you expect Dalvin Cook to be traded before the draft?
“Expect” is a strong word. It’s plausible. I’ll be keeping Schefter notifications on. I don’t think it absolutely has to happen before then. They could wait and see if they can move him to a RB-needy team when the dust settles from the draft or take this thing all the way through the summer. There’s no desperate need to trade him right this instant and they might actually get more in terms of draft capital when the other team doesn’t have to pay the bill until later. I still think it’s going to happen, I’m just not sure when.
@PatThePingu Hey Matt, Friday mailbag question: Are the vikings in genuine Christian Ponder territory with feeling desperate for Hooker/Levis
My golden rule of draft season is to never mention Christian Ponder. It just ruins every conversation about the Vikings picking a quarterback. I don’t feel like they are in desperation mode at QB. They have Cousins under contract and there’s more options than ever from year to year (see: Brady/Stafford/Wilson/Garoppolo moving in the last few years). I’m hesitant on both Hooker and Levis because there are some serious historical concerns. Very few players Hooker’s age have made it. Very few big-armed QBs with pocket and accuracy issues have made it. But how many times have we talked about all the things a QB can’t do and then he becomes good? Quite a few. If they did it, I’d be behind it because it gives them an answer after Cousins. It’ll mean that they were all-in on that QB, not that they panicked and reached.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, NFL.com’s NextGEN stats grade on Ponder was a 78 out of 100, which is the same as Josh Allen’s. Sometimes things just don’t work out.
@Skol_Doc Talk me into trading out of the first round
That’s easy. There appears to be a cliff in this draft when it comes to corners, receivers and pass rushers. If the top players are gone and the caliber of prospect has already fallen off at their positions of need by the time they get to No. 23, it’s an obvious decision to move back and look to get an additional third or fourth-round pick. We’d be assuming that the 23rd and 33rd players aren’t that different and you get an extra body.
Dan…1. You are marooned on a remote island. The only way to be rescued is if you successfully pick a player who must be available at pick 23 AND will make at least 3 pro bowls as a starter during their career. Who are you picking? If you are wrong, you can try again next year.
2. What consensus top 10 pick not named Jalen Carter is most likely to be out of the league in 5 years due to being a total bust?
I don’t have any good way of guessing whether someone will be good in the NFL or not but if I absolutely had to pick someone to save myself from the island I’d go with Bijan Robinson or the Georgia tackle Broderik Jones because I think those positions have the best chance in the late first to be good.
It’s HARD to be out of the league in five years as a top-10 pick. Actually almost impossible. Let’s say bouncing around the league a la Laquon Treadwell. I’ll go with Devon Witherspoon here. His profile is amazing but when corners fail they fail hard (see: Okudah, Jeff). A defensive lineman bust might still be able to be a situational player, a failed top receiver might be a No. 3 but a failed corner is a total mess.
@NorthStarsNHL I know you wrote about the subject and discussed it, but what do you think the chances are Cook and/or Smith gets dealt before or at the draft with it so close now?
I’ll say 50-50. What’s interesting is that the situations are paired together but they are pretty different. It seems like the Vikings want to move on from Cook because they didn’t run the ball well last year with him, he didn’t bring much to the passing game, he’s expensive and he’s in the danger zone with age/workload. It feels like they want Za’Darius back but he wants a new contract, which would be pretty hard to get at this stage in the game. Both situations are weird, honestly.
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