Friday Mailbag: QB decision made, preseason arrives

Matthew Coller answers fan questions about Kyler Murray being named QB1 and the start of preseason action

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone!

No practice recap for Day 13 because it was just a walk-through as the Vikings get ready for their preseason opener. Luckily we have a ton of great questions, so let’s dive in…

Brent K…. I can see the potential of Murray in the offense, but his historical inconsistency is tempering my excitement. What can KOC and the team do to smooth out the inconsistency?

There’s a few things that stand out. Staying out of third-and-long situations is massive with Murray. From his career splits, he has a 113.9 rating on third-and-3 or less, 92.5 rating on third down and between 4-6 yards and then just 76.0 on third down and 10 or more. He has 33 TDs to 6 INTs on short or medium and 8 TD to 11 INT on third-and-long.

How does that compare to the rest of the league? Glad you asked… On third down with 5 or fewer yards to go since 2019, Murray has a 108.5 rating, seventh best among QBs with 200+ passes in those situations and ahead of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. On third down with 7+ yards to go, he’s 27th in rating.

It’s not exactly a coaching point to say, “don’t get third-and-long!” because nobody ever wants third-and-long but the consistency of the short passing and run game could be huge in terms of keeping him ahead of the sticks.

The other thing is not leaving it to the variance of him being pressured. In 2024, he was 6th in PFF passing grade when clean with 21 Big-Time Thows and 3 Turnover-worthy Plays. Under pressure he was 33rd in PFF passing grade with 13 Turnover-worthy plays, second most in the NFL.

Again, it’s hard to avoid pressure altogether but limiting the toughest spots for him will make a difference.

Jason… What are we watching for in preseason games? Who are the guys that can really show they belong?

Biggest thing for me is going to be the rookies. The early returns on the class have been very impressive from some players like Jake Golday, Charles Demmings and Max Bredeson and we are looking to see flashes from Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange.

The guys that can make a case for themselves in terms of a roster spot will be depth players like DT Elijah Williams, OLBs Chaz Chambliss and Tyler Batty, safety Jacob Thomas, TEs Ben Yurosek and Gavin Bartholomew, WRs Jeshaun Jones and Dontae Fleming and whoever else might pop up along the way.

AnToni… There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm from many sources about Chuck Demmings- something seems unique in the clarity he’s evoking as a stand out, different kind of player. Setting aside that it is still VERY early in his career… I’m curious about:
- pro comps for his possible ceiling/floor
- if you recall another player(s) with a similar consensus vibe/ fervor in camp?

The guy that comes to mind for the most similar consensus as a rookie is Jordan Addison. It was so blatantly clear that he was really good at route running, ball tracking and making spectacular catches.

In terms of a pro comp, Ahkello Witherspoon came to mind. Tall and skinny, really good athlete and highly competitive.

With guys like this, you always want to pump the brakes a little because we might not see them actually play for a while. But in terms of showing early promise, it isn’t often that you see someone come in as a fifth-round pick and hang with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison without looking out of place. That’s unique. Where it goes from here, we’ll see.

JB… Any advice on how to watch the pre-season games, Vikings or otherwise? With starters on most teams out, what else should we be looking at?

Preseason is the best time to just pick a guy and watch him for a few plays. See if you can pick up anything from somebody like Elijah Williams or Charles Demmings, if the camera gives you a good enough look at the cornerbacks.

This year the Vikings have intriguing skill players who might matter. The two names that come to mind most are Demond Claiborne and Tai Felton. These dudes have legit speed. If they can make some big plays, that would give the preseason some shine.

There’s a surprising number of fairly young players to keep eyes on during the early and later parts of the game.

Jonathan…. Thoughts on Ben Johnson’s public, arrogant comments about wanting to surpass the 2013 Broncos offense scoring record, wanting shutouts & blowouts? I feel that he’s put a huge target on his back for the rest of the league, not smart doing that before you’ve actually won a Super Bowl (the only thing that matters)

One thing I like about it is that football coach types never seem to change. There’s the motivator type, the nerd wizard, the old gruff tough guy who has seen it all and so forth. Johnson seems to be taking on the trash talking coach who does not give an F’s about what anybody thinks. If it works, that coach can really be wild. That’s how you get a Mike Ditka or Bill Parcells. But if it doesn’t work, you have Josh McDaniels.

I think Johnson has already shown that he knows what he’s doing as an offensive mind and had a really good year last year as a head coach. The NFL does have its way of humbling people though, so we’ll see if he can keep rocking this bravado when his team hits some stumbling blocks.

Personally, I’m always for more personality and more rivalry type stuff, not less.

Bradley P… What do you make of Jeremiah’s comment when he was on the shouty show that Kyler is going to be Broncos Russell Wilson 2.0?

You guys know how much I love and respect Sirles, so I always appreciate his viewpoints even if they are different from mine.

Here’s where Sirles and I are different: He needs to see it to believe it. If rookies have a good game, he needs to see a lot more before he buys into them. If a team is suspect and is playing well, he needs to see them win in the playoffs to believe they’re actually good.

I’m more apt to use data and the information I gather to project where things could go and then form a range of outcomes. People have been trying to label me “PRO KYLER” when really my mind doesn’t work in “for or against” players, coaches, teams. It’s more that I think Murray’s history and the supporting cast have a lot of evidence that suggests a really good season is probable if he remains healthy. That’s all it is.

We don’t know how it’s going to turn out, so we’ll have to see.

JB… In the interview with Chase Edmonds, he said that giving Kyler some Run/Pass Options would be helpful to getting the most out of him. Do you see KOC actually installing some of these types of plays?

I could definitely see that. I try not to make too much of the scheme stuff that we’ve seen in camp because every gameplan is going to be different but it does seem like they are going to be quite dynamic in the run game, which should play off RPO type plays well.

I’ve always felt that we needed to differentiate between criticizing some of the Vikings’ shortcomings under O’Connell like short yardage or the tendancy to get the quarterback smacked too many times and the idea that he can’t “adjust” the offense. He definitely adapted it to Darnold to be very different from 2023 Cousins and he’s coached with all sorts of influences through the years, so I don’t think he’s going to try to run out the same offense with Murray that he did with Darnold or Cousins. It will be fascinating to see which parts of it are new though.

Evan… Why don’t the Vikings keep players with the International Pathways Program? I understood not keeping Oscar Chapman last year because Ryan Wright was very good. But why not keep Brett Thorson and develop him? Johnny Hekker has been just okay the past few years I think

They might. I’m not sure they saw enough potential with Chapman to keep him around but they will keep Thorson if they really like him. The international exception applies to the practice squad. You get one extra PS squad spot if you decide to keep the guy and develop him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thorson shows potential if they keep him there.

I do agree with you that the punting situation is something to watch because Hekker hasn’t been as good recently as Wright was last year.

Brad Lindberg… I apologize if you’ve answered this a million times already. What, exactly, makes this offense supposedly so much more complicated? The actual routes, etc? Verbiage? Presnap stuff? Something else? All of it?

I’ve asked wide receivers before that there’s two different explanations. The first is that they have a lot of formations, alignments and motions. It’s a matter of getting every one of those memorized and then knowing how each one of them works in context of the actual play with leverages and techniques.

The other part is the options that the QB has when he goes to the line for adjustments and options for routes. They need to know all the calls and signals and read the coverages the same way as the quarterback or the ball is going to the wrong place. Adam Thielen described it on ESPN a while back. He said that he’s been on teams with a handful of changes, where has KOC has like 50.

So imagine the quarterback has to know all that stuff for every single receiver and then has to lock in with the offensive line on how to adjust the pass protection for every different type of look that they are getting.

It’s a huge mental load. It’s also not impossible. That’s the standard for being a pro quarterback, even if it might be more than some offenses.

And if you ask: Why don’t they just simplify it? I think one reason is that it’s easier to dial back on certain things than it is to add more as the season goes along. The other reason is that defenses are really, really good and the NFL has mounds of data to look at every single route combination and analyze tendencies. Having a deep bag has appeared to really help them in the past with opening scripts and in clutch situations.

IceColdNorth… How many series might we expect each QB to get in the Vikings’ first preseason game on Saturday?

If we look at the past, probably one for Kyler Murray and the starters. I imagine if they went three-and-out, that KOC might send them back out there for another series.

I’m not sure how he’s going to approach JJ McCarthy but I see no reason for him to play any less than the entire first half. I’d do that for all of the preseason games just to get him as many reps as possible.

Chris C…

1. Talk me into a world where Kylers mobility and escapability combined with his arm talent is better than what Darnold was in our offense. (I can’t talk myself into it personally because I agree with what you’ve said many times that darnold was almost Tailor made for this offense)

2. KOC gets a truth serum and you can only ask him one question that he must answer directly and honestly, what would your question be and why? The question is intentionally vague and open ended so you can take it wherever you want.

As a Vikings fan living in Washington State where it’s Seahawks country I got a lot of crap when darnold won them the Superbowl. With that I personally would want the whole truth, full truth and nothing but the truth about the decision to go with McCarthy and let Darnold walk.

Question 1 — It’s pretty hard to do better in the offense than Sam Darnold but if we look at it from the perspective of data, ESPN’s Points Above Average model in 2024 had Kyler ahead of Darnold. His rushing created 27 extra first downs and 19 runs of more than 10 yards in 2024. That’s a lot of chain moving with the legs.

Crazy stat for you about Murray: No quarterback had a faster speed (by NGS tracking) when scrambling past the line of scrimmage than Murray.

It will be hard for him to emulate exactly how effective Darnold was downfield, so it’s a hard “talk me into” but his rushing has been elite over his career.

Question 2 — I don’t think that there’s much mystery about letting Darnold walk. They lost in the playoffs and decided that franchise tagging him would leave them short with the rest of the roster, so they rolled the dice and lost.

As far as what I would ask KOC, it would probably not be anything mysterious. I don’t think this team has been opaque about what they’ve done in his era. What they’ve said has almost always matched up with what they’ve done.

I’d probably have him explain to me the entire process of designing a gameplan. I’d want to learn some football stuff.

Bradley P… When, and if, McCarthy flames out how does KOC and Teasley figure out how to avoid it in the future? What lessons can they learn.

Also, on a similar topic can you write an article about qb busts? Too many fans are saying KOC is to blame for McCarthy when Shanahan and McVay both had qb projects they failed (or gave up on).

The only lessons that might be learned from this is that it’s really hard to get a tiger to change his stripes at the pro level and that coaches shouldn’t believe in themselves too much. It’s great to have an amazing system and know all the development pathways and so forth but you can’t throw it for them. It’s the players not the plays, always and forever.

But even then, it’s a tough critique because sometimes stuff happens and then we want The McCarthy Trials where everyone has to testify to why he didn’t work out (to this point). There’s been many, many first-round QBs who just couldn’t see things fast enough and couldn’t deliver accurately with enough regularity to be pro level starting QBs. There’s only 25 guys in the world who can do it.

On blaming KOC, one thing I’m certain about is that there will be a section of fans who want to pin failure at QB on anybody but the player. That’s how it goes every single time with any QB who doesn’t work out. I don’t believe that KOC mishandled McCarthy. I do believe, however, that the circumstances were far from favorable when you talk about missing an entire year and then being asked to be the franchise QB when you only threw 700 passes in college. The idea that they could just coach that up felt lofty to me at the time and looks crazy now that we know the results.

Jordan D… Is it time to declare that we’ve progressed from the “this should work” phase to the “it’s working” phase with Kyler Murray being able to execute the offense?