Friday mailbag: QB and interior O-line questions -- oh, it must be the offseason
Vikings fans want to know how the Vikings will approach the QB situation and rebuild their O-line
By Matthew Coller
Well, happy Friday, even if it’s the first Friday since September where we don’t have a Vikings game. That’s how it goes. Onto the offseason questions…
Alan G…. What do you think Daniel Jones will get in the QB market? Is he $10M/year like Darnold?
That seems about right. The only question I have about him staying in Minnesota to back up McCarthy is whether he might have a better opportunity to win a job somewhere else. He’s going to know that McCarthy will get the benefit of the doubt.
Bradley P…. What’s your pie chart of blame on the last two games offensively? Coaching, quarterback, offensive line, pass catchers?
Both games combined? I’d go quarterback 40%, O-line 25%, coaching 25%, pass catchers 10%.
At the end of the day, you can’t miss wide open guys all over or get sacked nine times, no matter how bad the options are. Did Darnold get a lot of help? Not really, no.
Brad L… Pie chart: Who is our DC next year? Flores? Someone promoted within? Someone from outside the organization?
I would put Flores at 70%, then someone from within 20% and outside 10%. He’s deserving of a head coaching job and he’s got interviews but I’m still thinking that a lot of these teams are going to want QB whisperers. One team that should seriously consider him is Jacksonville. Their defense has been pathetic for years and Trevor Lawrence will still like him better than Urban Meyer.
Billy J… Do you think in addition to a run game coordinator should/would KOC get an in game time management/challenge coach? He wants to call the plays and that seems to take his concentration away from the in game stuff.
They have a run game coordinator. That’s Curtis Modkins. He has a pretty successful history with the Broncos as RBs coach and Bills as offensive coordinator. Guys like CJ Spiller and Phillip Lindsay had huge years with him. But it’s just not working. The last three years they have finished 28th, 20th, 27th in rushing EPA. As bad as it was in 2023, they averaged 4.0 yards per carry and this year it was 4.1 per rush.
I think KOC’s game management and challenges have been fine. The only one that he really blew was the first half of the Green Bay game but I can’t think of many examples where they totally botched it. They also have someone in the booth that is in his ear with stuff like that already named Ryan Cordell. I thought the biggest problem was just getting the play calls in quickly, which they seemed to resolve midway through the season. I’d also like him to take a look at why so many games that were blowouts ended up being close in the end because “aggressive” can sometimes end up as reckless.
Brian_H…. My perception from the recliner is that KOC simply refuses to make things like a simple quick slant part of his offense, which is unfortunate as a short passing game could keep the defense honest similarly to a running game (which they also lack). Is this perception inaccurate or do we need to have KOC show us on the doll where Bill Walsh hurt him?
So here’s the thing: On passes that traveled between 0-9 yards, Darnold was the 5th best passer by PFF grade and fourth by QB rating. But he was only 16th in terms of the percentage of short passes and the fact that he threw 15 touchdowns under 10 yards tells me that a lot of the quick stuff ended up being in the red zone.
It’s tough because they got to 14-3 by being a top explosive passing game and Darnold was elite in Big-Time Throw percentage. How are we supposed to say: Stop aiming downfield on all those throws that are… driving you to a top-10 passing Expected Points Added this year! I always said about the Vikings offense that it was like a home run hitting baseball team. The bats can go cold in a series (2019 Twins, for example) and you just lose. No matter who they sign at guard, it’s never going to be a flawless O-line that never has a bad day. There has to be a counter punch and some patience.
I was thinking about how Brady had some years of his career where he only threw to the slot receiver, running back and tight end. There was one drive in the Rams game where he hit Jones, CJ Ham and maybe Josh Oliver and I thought… yes, do that. And then they never did that again.
Kip N…. Whose some surprise cut candidates or surprise players ( other than QB) that they choose not to resign? Like, whoa, didn’t see that coming type of transactions ?
It’s hard to find too many stunners on this roster. If the goal is to vastly improve the interior pass blocking, they could look for a new center. Bradbury was top 10 by PFF in run blocking and did a really good job working with Darnold but graded 28th in pass pro and led the league with 37 pressures.
Maybe it would be a surprise to some if Cam Bynum didn’t come back but I expect him to have a lot of interest around the league.
Scotty H…. We need help across a few positions, but thinking specifically about iOL, DT, and Corner, how do you see Kwesi ranking those needs and how feasible is it to add multiple starters across these holes?
When the head coach publicly pleas for interior O-line help, it’s pretty clear that you have to slide that up to the top of the list. The Blake Brandel experiment failed badly. He finished as the 6th lowest graded starting guard in the league. There are several free agents like Trey Smith, Teven Jenkins and Brandon Scherff who would be massive improvements there.
They need bodies at corner. They only have Mekhi Blackmon, Dwight McGlothern at that position if Griffin, Gilmore and Murphy all leave.
I know that DT in this system isn’t a traditional pass rushing spot but you see the impact when teams have interior pass rushers. The Vikings did a good thing keeping Jalen Redmond by re-signing him on Thursday.
Never Played Madden… What offensive schematic lessons should KOC learn from this season.
Teams like Tampa Bay, Detroit and Green Bay averaged over 4.7 yards per carry this year without running QBs. They have to figure out what they’re missing that those teams do. I don’t think the answer is entirely on the blockers.
Also, next year every single team is going to do the same stuff the Lions and Rams did. They have to find answers for it. Maybe it’s on Darnold but I felt like there wasn’t the same type of consistency with getting the ball to Hockenson to keep the chains moving that there was when he was with Cousins.
And for the love of all that is holy in football, figure out how to convert third-and-2 with something simple.
It’s hard overall to be too upset with the scheme that produced a top-10 offense on a 14-win team.
Pickle Enjoyer….. I'm a huge fan of Sirles idea for the G position (one stud, one guy who is ok in FA / draft a guy). I think the same can be done at CB and DT/E (Resign Murphy, sign an ok dude, draft a guy; sign either the Dallas, Detroit, or Philly FA DT, sign a role player, and then draft a guy). However, this necessitates a trade down. How comfortable are you auctioning the 24th pick for multiple bites at the apple?
If Kwesi trades down out of the first round, I’m sure the response will be really unfriendly because of what happened in 2022 but the area from 20th through like 35th is usually about the same in terms of caliber of prospects, depending on the year. If somebody gets desperate to move up, they should be very much ready to slide back and pick up extra picks.
IceColdNorth….I enjoy the video podcasts you do with Jeremiah Sirles. I'd be curious if he's shared with you the body type/weight that would better position our guards/center to hold the point when pass-blocking against big interior defensive linemen, like Kenny Clark. Is there a particular weight or other characteristic that we should be seeking in free agents/draft prospects?
To show you how outmatched all centers are in terms of size/power, there were only five centers who graded over 70 by PFF in pass blocking this season. If you go back to 2017, there were 21 centers with over 70 grades. Defenses have changed to attack the middle so much more with pass rushers than they used to do. A lot of the centers that rank at the top are around 310 or above but I don’t think it’s exactly a height-weight thing as much as strength, technique and ability to react quickly to stunts/twists.
The Vikings also have to avoid second-and-8 all the time when they run. Every opponent knows they aren’t running again on second-and-long and they treat it like third-and-long with the rush plan.
Andrew K…. I know everyone wants to look forward, and I understand not wanting to re-live the pain of yet another epic disappointment. However - in the many analyses of what went wrong at the end of the season no one has mentioned what seems to me like potentially THE reason for the last 2 games' nauseating results. Darnold's pinky on his throwing hand was taped up. So, my theory is that this injury hurt his accuracy (hence him overthrowing people vs (most) of the first 15 games where he dropped pinpoint accuracy throws. He was nervous about his accuracy, which led him to hold onto the ball a long time and not pull the trigger when a number of receivers were wide open. Things cascaded with the 6 sacks in the first half and Darnold's will was broken. Matthew - what do you think of this? If true it raises questions (why didn't they try a different gameplan on offense/why not try Mullen/etc.) and - it seems to me - could improve the outlook for Sam's career and the value of his huge new contract.
That finger was taped up against the Packers and he played incredible football that day, so I don’t know if you can look at that as the reason he wasn’t on point. What I saw was more about his feet. Hopping around in the pocket because he was concerned about the blitz and then not having his feet set when he was pulling the trigger.
After every loss ever, we ask: Why didn’t they try a different gameplan? Even if the gameplans got them to 14 wins. My thing was just that they needed a counter to the Rams winning at the line of scrimmage and it didn’t seem to be there. KOC appeared to suggest that it was there and the ball didn’t come out. I didn’t really see much of that on the tape but I don’t know the play calls, so maybe. It seems to be KOC’s nature to fight through it, keep swinging for the fences. Sometimes that worked, sometimes it didn’t. It didn’t at the worst time.
Jason… With the last two weeks, the Tua comments, and the ongoing lawsuit all taken into account, how realistic are the chances Flores actually gets a head coaching job?
It’s realistic. For all the warts and issues with Miami’s ownership, the man won football games. In the NFL, they will look past a lot of things if they believe someone can win them football games. I still don’t think it’s better than 50% chance but I buy that Flores has taken a lot from working with Tomlin and KOC and could be a better version of himself with another chance.
Ben… How much of a gap do you see between the Vikings and the top NFC teams and are there avenues to get there this offseason??
There is a pretty big gap on the O-line between them and the Lions or Eagles. Aside from that, it depends on QB play. This year they got regular season QB play that was at the level of Super Bowl contenders. They just didn’t get it when they really needed it. Aside from that, Philly’s interior D-line and coverage is pretty special. The Lions run game is very special.
Can they do everything this offseason to bolster all of those things at the same level of those teams? No. Can they improve them to the point where their offense can have the same or higher ceiling to even up those comparisons? Possibly.
This was a weird year though. How many times do you multiple 14+ win teams where everything just seemed to go right for them all year?
David H… It might make sense to tag Darnold and see which QB stands out after camp. OL continues to limit playoff expectations for any QB.
Don’t say out loud that it might make sense to tag him, David. You might end up with thousands of fans at your door with pitchforks.
I think what the blocking struggles versus the Rams really tells you is that matchups in the playoffs are everything. That team had the exact personnel and the exact coaching to beat their line. They were fantastic just two weeks ago against the Packers and then, bam, it’s over. My theory on the O-line’s struggles is that teams figured out where Brandel and Robinson were struggling and took advantage over and over. The final six weeks of the season were brutal by the numbers for both of them.
Scott M…. I still believe that Dallas Turner will be a good player someday but watching Jared Verse have an incredible rookie season has shades of 2014 when the Vikings picked Anthony Barr and a few picks later LA took Aaron Donald. Drafts are a crap shot, no doubt, and everyone is quick to lay the blame on the GM for "bad drafts" which isn't always the case. There is a team of people who support the process. Can you share what you know about how this works for the Vikings and how it might vary for other teams?
It is a crap shoot and I’ve always been in the camp that the drafts will even out once they actually have some draft picks to work with. At the same time, you can’t slide all your chips to the middle of the table to move up to get Turner and then have Verse be a dang megastar. It was an anti-analytical type move. I understood the logic and wasn’t against it at that time but Turner has to be outstanding for that bet to pay dividends. He has a ton of talent and I think he’ll greatly improve next year. Still, at the moment it’s a bad, bad look to have the other guy be the next Myles Garrett out there while your guy plays 8 snaps. No way around it.
To your question, yes, the scouts, executives, analytics people and coaches are all in those meetings giving their thoughts and ideas. There are a lot of folks involved in the process. Still, the GM is the one who makes the final call. He deserves to have the blame placed at his feet.
To be clear: The work between the front office and coaching staff to get free agents this year was excellent and the work in the past to move on from fading, expensive players set them up for success ultimately. That deserves a ton of credit and belief that they are a competent franchise. But some of these picks are going to need to come to fruition, no matter where they were taken or UDFA.
hastypudding…. How much did Aaron Jones's play fade due to age/injuries/the season grind, and how much was opponent/game plan/O-Line in your opinion?
I’m not sure. From Week 13-18, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, which was 9th among guys with at least 70 runs. That was quite a bit different from the first five weeks where he gained 5.4 YPC. He only had seven runs of 10+ yards down the stretch though. Not getting explosives was an issue. Losing Christian Darrisaw really hurt them. Robinson just wasn’t a good run blocker, whereas Darrisaw was top five at run blocking in the league. Some of the run failures have to be schematic. Like everything else, everyone is responsible for them not running better and more consistently.
Hutch J… Spend ALL your money on an o line. You don't have a qb, you don't have a running back without an o line.
Of course I agree that it’s time to finally spend those dollars on interior O-line after years and years and years of doing it on the cheap. It has driven me crazy just like you and it seems that KOC had enough after the playoff game. However…
Absolutely nobody wants to hear this but the Vikings finished 14th in run blocking and 15th in pass blocking by PFF during the regular season. The Lions were 18th in pass blocking, the Rams 30th. The top 3 teams in pass blocking also got eliminated in the first round.
It’s really hard to have a flawless offensive line, especially when injuries happen so frequently. If they had Darrisaw, it’s a different ballgame but that’s life on the line. You have to have answers. Two of the biggest sacks of the game came on unblocked cornerback blitzes that had nothing to do with the interior O-line. On fourth-and-2, KOC sent every receiver except one at least 15 yards downfield. The Vikings were top six in defensive pressures but couldn’t get to Stafford because the Rams had a better plan. It all ties together.
Bradley P…. How important is it to get younger? I believe the Vikings were the second oldest team. And who are the young guys on the team that we think will take a step in their development next year?
On one hand, it’s probably the most overrated thing in the sport. Historically older teams have won more often. That makes sense, right? The guys who know how to play 17 games and into the playoffs are the ones who have an edge over inexperienced players without fully developed bodies.
At the same time, you can’t just always plan to fill the roster up in free agency. The FA pool can be like the draft in some ways. Free agents go bust some times (See: Davenport, Marcus) and you can’t expect free agents to always sign with you.
They need players like Dwight McGlothern, Mekhi Blackmon, Theo Jackson, Levi Drake Rodriguez and Jalen Redmond to all take a step forward.
Griffin…. What are the top interior O-line and top interior D-line Free agents? Seems like a weak CB FA class - might be better to use draft capital there
The thing about naming top free agents is that one-third of them just stay with their teams, so the lists aren’t that relevant until after the Combine. That said, there’s no question that Trey Smith and Teven Jenkins are the top guys. Past that, it’s not that great. Maybe SF’s Aaron Banks.
As far as DTs, Osa Odighizuwa, Levi Onwuzurike, Jarran Reed and Milton Williams are all great candidates.
Matt R…. With you being connected as anyone, is there any juice to the rumor there is tension between KOC and the Wilfs?
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Purple Insider to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.