Friday Mailbag: Pre-Combine speculation

With the Combine next week, the Vikings' plan should start becoming more clear

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Alright folks, we’re in a little bit of a calm time in Vikings land but the NFL Combine starts next week and I’ll be there bringing you updates from the HC and GM press conferences and side sessions with beat reporters.

A request: Get your Combine news directly from the people who put in the actual work i.e. Purple Insider, Star Tribune, Pioneer Press, The Athletic etc. rather from the hack aggregators on social media who steal from us, thanks :)

Anyway, let’s get into your questions…

VicStorm…. this whole franchise tag and trade thing…I’ve been struggling with how it could work. First, it seems, much like with Kirk last year, KOC saying Darnolds earned the right to hit FA. Second, there are conflicting reports (no surprise) of Vikings tagging him/not tagging him. I really wonder though…does the rest of the league almost collude and say… Dare you to franchise him, you’re on the hook for $41 mill, we ain’t trading for him. Such that, if Vikes really don’t want him, they CANT franchise and have to let him go as a full free agent. Then rest of teams can get him wo trade compensation. I would love the tag and trade, just seems that it’s not likely.

It works like this: First you tag, then you trade.

KOC’s quotes on QBs shouldn’t be taken with any sort of seriousness. He’s always going to make sure he has the player’s back.

The rest of the league could collude and agree not to trade for Darnold so they can sign him in free agency but I’m not sure what good that does the teams that want him. If you’re the Raiders and you let him get to free agency, he might pick someone else. Trading for him assures that you actually get him to play for your football team. What other QBs are these teams gonna get? Russ Wilson? Danny Jones? Justin Fieldsy? Darnold is 10x better than the next best option.

I still think the tag and trade is the most likely scenario because if the Vikings let him walk and then spend big in this year’s free agency then they might get nothing in terms of compensation for him in 2026. Even if they traded Darnold for a third-round pick this year, that would be better than letting him walk. With the increase in cap space, teams shouldn’t have any trouble taking on Darnold’s cap hit for 2025 and they can negotiate an extension with him when he arrives.

That said, one of the biggest goals for the Combine is the Vikings finding out whether there is interest in a trade.

Ben… Let’s say that McCarthy is the guy going forward for the 2025 season and beyond and he’s healthy and plays in every game, How long should we wait until we can make a definitive statement on weather he’s the guy or that the Vikings made a big mistake there??

Judging by the NFL analysis landscape, he will only be considered a good quarterback when he’s raising the Lombardi Trophy and even then if his defense played well in the Super Bowl he still won’t get any appreciation.

Snark aside, there’s nothing tougher than answering that question unless the guy is instantly elite. How good is Justin Herbert? How good is Trevor Lawrence? We just saw Sam Darnold go from bust to 14-game winner. We just saw Brock Purdy go from MVP candidate to 6-game winner. It’s a moving target.

From the research I’ve done in the past, usually three years as a starter is the bar for having a big enough sample size to have some certainty about what a quarterback is going to be. But that’s still not definitive because circumstances matter so much.

M.B… So the cap is going up more than anticipated. Yay!! That’s great news for the Vikings! But also great news for every team! So is it possible that this unexpected bump reduces the amount of free agent movement among the premium names (ie now it’s easier for KC to retain Smith, Miami/Holland, etc)

Yes, it’s possible. I would argue that the cap bump impacts some teams way more than others. The cap-screwed teams didn’t get less screwed. The Dolphins have $1.5 million in space. I can’t see them being able to keep Holland. The Chiefs have $7.9 million. It also won’t matter as much if your team sucks. The top two cap space teams, the Raiders and Patriots, have new coaches so that might help but I’d have to imagine that those franchises being horrendous recently will have some impact on the stars they can attract.

It definitely could take a few guys off the table but if you’re a cap healthy team that is seriously competing like the Vikings, it does increase your ability to raise the bar to another level with top FAs or keep your own players.

Evan… Could we franchise tag Darnold and transition tag Byron Murphy Jr?

Since Murphy Jr. moved back his void date, he can’t be franchised and each team can only use one franchise tag.

CJ M… Where do the Vikings rank on the “appealing place for free agents” standings? Emphasis on impact players looking to win 2025-2027

Probably top five. I talked to an agent last year who told me that everyone wants to be with the Vikings organization. They treat players well, have great facilities, have owners that aren’t cheap and want to win... All that stuff from the NFLPA survey matters.

Mark T… Matt, I wanted to get your opinion on the chances that the Vikes get some compensation (Draft Pick) for the fiasco of Kirk Cousins talking with the Falcons, prior to the free agent period. Rules are rules and are they to be followed or not?

That’s already been resolved. The Falcons got fined $250k and lost a fifth-round pick. No compensation for the Vikings. Rules are rules but tampering is akin to jaywalking. I don’t need the NFL trying to come down hard on every team that talks to a free agent before they are allowed. That would be a waste of everyone’s time and silly penalties abound. They need to worry about the important things, like celebrations where The Griddy is performed too close to the opponent.

Mike T… Matthew, on a show this week you kind of dismissed fans who think a quarterback winning a national championship means anything and that the pressure at the NFL level is completely different. I'm not going to argue that, as there is no correlation between winning a national championship and winning a Superbowl. Only Joe Namath has won a state championship in high school, national title in college and a super bowl. However, if I have the choice between a quarterback who has won at the highest level at every stage and one that hasn't, I guess I want to go with the one that has wouldn't you? Surely you think there are some benefits to what he's been through and proven to be successful?

Nope, it truly means nothing. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson didn’t win a thing in college. Neither did Tom Brady (he threw 15 passes on the team that won in ‘97), Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger or Dan Marino. Those are the guys with the most passing yards in history. Hilariously, Peyton Manning’s Tennessee team won the next year after he graduated with Tee Martin at QB.

There is nothing similar about college football to the NFL. The competition is a million times harder and almost every week is an incredibly difficult opponent. You can’t just have 19 draft picks on a college team and kill everybody. JJ McCarthy threw for 140 yards on 18 passes in the National Championship and I’m supposed to think that’s a meaningful data point toward projecting his success in the NFL? Nah. In my world, you gotta prove stuff like that and there’s no proof.

Not to mention the fact that I’ve seen him in practice and a preseason game already and those are the only things I’m considering when weighing his potential. I’ve already thrown out any Michigan information because it is irrelevant. (Aside from his lack of playing experience, which may weigh into the decision with Darnold).

What I saw from JJ McCarthy was a dude who made incredible strides and flashed all the arm talent and athleticism of an above average starting NFL QB. He’s a natural born leader with A+ work ethic and attitude and his arm strength is quite a bit above what it was projected to be when he was coming out. I moved on from the college stuff after the first rookie minicamp practice.

Florian K… It seems free agents have maybe three main concerns going into their decisions on where to sign, the money, the chance to win and the state of the organization structure as a whole from, say, solidly run to dysfunction junction. Players often say it isn't about the money but, yeah sure. Care to take a pie chart guess on how much those factors are truly important to them? Are there other factors they balance that we plebs might not think about? Does it also depend on the where the player is in terms of tier? As in stars can pick and chose while backups are just happy to get a contract?

Len…. It seems like the Vs had their plan in place with drafting a rookie QB. If McCarthy had started last fall day one it would have been a surprise and contrary to their plan. If he had stayed healthy and never started that would have seemed contrary also. But McCarthy not starting this fall would also seem contrary to plan, only to happen if he was still hurt, not very good, or if the team believed Sam could win the SB. Seems like the smart money is betting on him to start. With Jones? Mullens? or player X?

The plan was to have Darnold start in 2024 until the wheels came off and then go to McCarthy but the NFL rarely allows everything to go according to plan. While I totally agree with you that it would be contrary to the plan to have Darnold return in 2025, I think there’s way too much fear of that happening among Vikings fans. It seems like folks believe that if Darnold returns for 2025 that the entire rookie contract is out the window and they’ve gone full Kirk-era cap calamity and they need to move the franchise to St. Louis. I just don’t see it that way.

If Kevin O’Connell would prefer to give McCarthy all the time he needs to be sure he’s 100% ready to roll when he takes the field, I’m not going to be the one to tell KOC he’s wrong. He has proven clearly knows what he’s doing with QBs. You would much rather say, “darn, they were too cautious with McCarthy” then “shoot, they rushed McCarthy.” If they need to make some cap adjustments or bend around a contract to give themselves a legit chance to win in 2025 while developing JJ in practice, then that’s a fine outcome for me. I am very, very, very, extremely, ridiculously, absurdly, painfully aware that it is not fine with many Vikings fans.

If KOC thinks McCarthy is good to go Week 1 2025, then that’s great. Right on schedule and off we go. Obviously it’s better for the franchise if that’s the case, nobody disputes that.

Doug S… Does the team ever ask players about potential free agents meaning asking JJ who he thinks plays corner really well?

There might be some of that in the middle of the season. Jefferson might say to the coaches, “hey, this guy is amazing, we should get him,” but otherwise players aren’t part of these decisions very often. They have personnel meetings with the GM, scouts, coaches, analytics folks etc., and they go around the room and give opinions on players. That’s what they’re paid to do, so they’re usually the ones to do that job. Now if Tom Brady says he wants a particular receiver, sure, you’re listening. If Jefferson played with a guy in college, you might ask him what he thought… that kinda thing.

Gary A… With Sam Darnold probably leaving for richer pastures, what are the pros and cons of the Vikings signing Daniel Jones to a one year contract? I'm thinking he'd get $10-13 million for one year

I don’t see many cons aside from the price tag being a shade high for a backup. I’m skeptical whether DJ is going to want to be McCarthy’s backup. If I ranked all the best QB options for the QB-needy teams, I’m getting to Jones’s name right behind Darnold and drafting a QB. The Steelers seem like a really good fit for him. I’d be surprised if he prefers to be QB2 if there are QB1 options out there.

Joe… Given the Lions and Eagles are stacked right now, How about the Vikings positioning themselves for a championship run in 2027-2028 when these teams will have have key rookie deals expiring and free agents galore. Just dont think the Vikes are anywhere close to them right now.

The playoffs really break our brains, don’t they? The Eagles had the same record as the Vikings and almost lost to the Rams in the playoffs and outscored opponents by +160 vs the Vikings +100 and you want to start planning for 2027? There are going to be good football teams every year, man. The Vikings should be going after it 100% every year from here on. This is their Super Bowl window. They have superstars in their prime, a top-10 QB draft pick, a bleep ton of cap space… this is the dream scenario for building a winner, brother.

I don’t even know how you would plan for 2027 this offseason. Tank?

I can’t say I’ve ever seen anyone decide in February that the next two seasons were already over. This is a new level for Vikings fans fatalism and that is a super high bar to reach.

Dan… Let's say the Vikings roll with McCarthy and don't bring back Darnold (or Jones). That would mean they don't have to push all of the salary cap buttons to sign the players they want. Should they push all of those buttons anyway to be as competitive as possible next year?

They are still going to structure contracts that have bigger cap hits in the future because the cap goes up and those cap hits become smaller percentages of the cap later on. I would imagine that they wouldn’t be afraid to do some restructures if they need a few extra bucks. Outside of that, if Darnold goes, they shouldn’t really need to do it unless they signed Trey Smith, Milton Williams, DJ Reed and brought everybody else back or something totally wild like that. Going forward though, yes, pull all levers, push all buttons… whatever it takes. Once you win 14 games and have superstars in their primes, it’s go time.

Kip N… How many trade backs do you see Kwesi trying to pull off ? 2-3 ? Just based on how deep the draft is ? Hopefully he doesn’t end up with 13-14 picks like Rick did a few years back. Besides doing media things at the combine, what are some fun things to do or observe at the combine ?