Friday mailbag: Playoff time

Vikings fans are preparing for Vikings-Giants in the playoffs...and some are nervous

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! Well, we made it. It’s playoff time. Let’s get right into your questions.

@Aoki5Chuck New OT playoff rules...am I crazy, or should every team think about onside kicking now? As I read the rules, technically the kickoff is the opportunity to possess. So if you could surprise and get the onside, you could end the game on a FG. Worst case, you'll still get the ball!

Well it’s not going to be a surprise now that you told them, Chuck! I forgot entirely about the new overtime thing. Pouring more salt in the ‘09 Vikings’ wounds, aren’t they?

I like where your head is at on this. If you don’t recover the onside kick you still have a huge margin for error. You can give up a touchdown and still have a decent chance to respond and win the game. A field goal is probably the most likely outcome on a failed onside kick, right? Or you might cause the other team to have a really tough call on a 54-yard field goal or whatever and if they miss you need like two first downs to win. I’d be surprised if anyone goes for this but I dig it.

@smccullough5 Our run defense is baffling. Sometimes stingy and sometimes porous. Tomlinson and Phillips have lots of highlights, but still, there are lots of yards given up on the ground. Is this due to d-line rotation, attacking the edges, situational viewing bias, all of the above?

In the big picture they are a mediocre run defense, ranking 19th in Expected Points Added vs. the run and 20th in yards per attempt. It’s odd though because PFF grades them very well (second best overall) and Duke Shelley is the only player with a below average grade vs. the run on the entire defense. The gap exists in the explosive runs. They’ve allowed 52 runs of 10+ yards, which isn’t horrendous (14th) but it’s far from the best (SF with 23). Circumstances play into it too. The Cowboys, Colts and Packers were all up by huge margins and ran over and over again. Also the downside to the edge rushers playing nine-technique (wide outside the tackles) and two-deep safeties has always been giving up some yards on the ground. You’d take it if the benefit was great pass defense… but it hasn’t been that way for them. Put Harrison Smith in the box and demand that Daniel Jones push the ball downfield.

@headcoach21 Do you see some similarities between the 2022 Vikings and the 2008 cardinals team that went to the superbowl??

Maybe if I squint. The biggest difference is that team was No. 3 in scoring and No. 3 in passing EPA. Their QB made the Hall of Fame and had the fourth highest rating by ESPN’s QBR and third highest traditional QB rating that year. Their No. 2 and 3 receivers both went over 1,000 yards.

Some similarities: They were 28th in points allowed, which was fueled by some terrible blowouts. Their running game was not scary. They had an Expected W-L of 8-8. And the road to the Super Bowl wasn’t the hardest (Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia).

In my opinion, the league has changed too much since then to make the comparison. The funny thing about this team is that all of the recent similar teams didn’t win anywhere as many games. The 2018 Falcons lost a bunch of one-score games and finished 7-9 but they were 10th in scoring, 25th in defense, Matt Ryan had a good overall year and they couldn’t run the ball. The 2017 Lions were 7th in scoring, 21st on defense but they had four one-score losses and went 9-7. Maybe the 2016 Raiders? They went 12-4 while ranking 7th in scoring and 20th in points against but Carr got hurt and that ruined their playoff chances. I dunno man, there’s never been a team quite like this.

@bigrose9 For some reason I believe Vikings will lose their first 1 score game of the season. Why because it’s the playoffs and Vikings are gonna Viking in the playoffs. Idk if it’s just me, but it feels like the Vikings cursed franchise. Can you help me get over this feeling please!

You have plenty of reason to feel that way based on this team’s history and the natural laws of regression. The best I can do is to say that I think the Vikings are the better team. When Kirk Cousins faces bad defenses, he usually does very well. Even with their advantage up front, the Giants are a bad overall defense. If that doesn’t comfort you, try this: No matter how much you worry, it has no impact on the outcome. Neither does Gary Anderson or Blair Walsh or 41-0 or any of that stuff. So get some pizza and see what happens.

@smccullough5 I'm from the future and I can tell you that Kirk's Ironman luck wore out and he got injured in the first quarter but the Vikings still made it to the NFCCG. How did this happen?

You had a fever dream and imagined it.

@WarleyOwl Put yourself in Kwesi’s shoes - what are you thinking as you approach this game?

Kwesi should be proud of his team. He put together a group with a lot of heart and the culture they envisioned upon hiring Kevin O’Connell came to fruition. His signings of Phillips, Smith, Peterson and trade for Hockenson worked out really well. Now it’s all up to the football gods. I wouldn’t be thinking about the future at all right now. There’s plenty of time for that after the season.

@SamRoot43 Not really sure how to put this into a question, but after an extremely frustrating game and a quiet performance in a nearly meaningless game, I think Justin Jefferson is going to explode for a monster post-season ala '08 Fitzgerald - Thoughts?

The Giants have a pretty bad secondary, even with Adoree Jackson so I expect Jefferson to make plays. I’m not sure many receivers ever will recreate Larry Fitz’s ‘08 postseason. He had 30 catches for 546 yards and seven touchdowns over four games. That’s a 16-game pace of 2,184 yards. A few years ago PFF found that it’s usually the secondary receivers that make the difference when it comes to the playoffs because No. 1s can only do so much. Is that Hockenson? Osborn? Thielen? Irv? Jefferson’s going to make plays, it’s about not making big miscues and someone else rising up.

Rob via email Give me two unheralded players (one on offense, the other defense) that will make a difference against the Giants. Mine are Reagor and Shelley. And I’m calling two upsets this weekend with Tampa Bay and Jacksonville winning their games, what do you think?

I might go deep in the weeds and call another Jalen. The Vikings got a little bit of a look at some depth players and Jalen Nailor stood out. I’m not sure he even gets a single snap but a deep shot to him would be an unexpected wrinkle. If we go with a little more obvious pick, either Oli Udoh or Blake Brandel. If the right tackle position is halfway decent, they’ve got a great chance to put up points. On defense, Harrison Phillips doesn’t get a ton of attention but with the Giants guaranteed to run Barkley a lot, his play will be a big deal.

Your two upset picks make sense.

@leo_olson5 If the Vikings win the superbowl this year, which players on this team do you think that would elevate into Ring of Honor status? To me, there only a couple guys on the roster who are ROH regardless, but many that you could make the argument for if they were on the first SB team

The most obvious answer is Kirk Cousins. Everyone else who’s going to end up there from this era is already pretty much solidified. Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Adam Thielen are pretty set. Maybe Eric Kendricks’s status gets elevated but I’m not sure. There’s a bit of a backlog of deserving players.

@rk2022 Should the Vikings have dismissed Donatell half way through the season and tried Mike Pettine?

There’s a case for that. I do think he made the appropriate changes after the Patriots game and they’re playing better now than they were earlier in the year. It would have been really difficult to make a mid-season change when they were winning. Remember how that worked out in ‘16 when Norv Turner quit at 5-2? Probably best to make as many tweaks as possible and hope that works.

@AES64 KOC has a great approach/style, but that wasn't the key pitch to the fan base. Whatever happens in the playoffs, did this year's team make actual gains/progress in winning around the margins, and if so, where do we see it? E.G., they lead the NFL in delay of game penalties (despite having a veteran QB start every game) and there doesn't seem to be a repeatable skill demonstrated in the close wins.

Depends on how we define the margins and who we credit or blame. They have not gotten any sort of edge when it comes to fourth down decision making. They have been amazing in terms of penalty differential. In terms of close wins, one thing that’s noticeable is that Kirk Cousins no longer has those wacky moments (outside of the end of the first half in Chicago last week) where there’s confusion over timeouts or throws to the middle of the field that run the clock out etc. That might be coaching. I’d say the biggest difference is the pass-first approach. Is that a “margins” thing? I’m not sure. But we wanted a modern approach and got it.

Jeff in Tokyo: Mailbag question... ZaDarius has been playing hurt for the last few games but claims with the help of being off the last game he has healed up his knee issue. Hunter took some time before heating up this year. Were there any games this year where both played well? if so, how did the team do? Guestimate on what the Duke’s next contract will be?

It was more toward the middle of the season that Za’Darius was hurt. He’s been healthy recently, it just made sense for him to rest up even more in Week 18. The Giants game was their best as a duo since Week 6 in Miami. They put up 15 total pressures combined and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again. The Giants have a very mediocre pass blocking unit, ranking 24th by PFF.

I would imagine Shelley re-signs for something pretty reasonable. Maybe like two years, $6 million? He’s been a great addition but it’s a pretty small sample and he probably projects as depth in the future.

@kyleshaner The Vikings franchise routinely does things — positive, negative and the mundane — in bizarre ways. Looking into your crystal ball, what craziness lies ahead in the playoffs?

The most likely scenario is what everyone thinks it is: Winning this week and coming up short on divisional weekend. But who knows. I’ve never had much confidence in my ability to guess what’s going to happen in NFL games and look how crazy last year’s divisional round was. The 49ers beating the Packers on a blocked punt, Rams-Bucs epic, Tannehill meltdown, the Chiefs insane last-second drive and OT win. The only thing the crystal ball tells us is that we’re going to be shaking our heads in disbelief at something in the postseason… I just have no idea what.

@tuffytime74 Here’s a Friday Mailbag question for you: What was the Viking’s blitz % in the NYG game? Is Jones effective vs blitzes and what’s your prediction for the defensive game plan on Sunday?

They only blitzed him about 24% of the time, which is less than usual for the second half of the year for them. That’s probably because he’s good at beating the blitz. But I don’t think they can avoid them. It has to be in the big situations, particularly third-and-longs. If they get too aggressive on early downs Barkley might be able to rip off a game-changing run or two and they don’t want that.

@SkolToast18 5 keys to success against the Giants? (You can do less if 5 is too many)

Easily No. 1 is protecting Cousins. Related to that is running effectively to slow down the Giants’ blitzes. Getting a turnover or two against the Giants. Being on the right side of the special teams battle. Some of those things can be controlled, others cannot.

@JoshuaR_Smith In 2022/23, would you rather have Jeff Hostetler or Daniel Jones as your Giants playoff quarterback?

Well, Jeff is almost 62 years old so I’d probably go with Jones for this Sunday. Seriously, back in the day I considered Hostetler to be a really good quarterback. Tough, fearless. He never had a losing season as a starter. It certainly shows you how different the NFL is now when Jeff had an 80.8 rating in his one Pro Bowl season. For QBs from 1990-1999 with at least 2,000 passes, he was 14th in QB rating… the highest was Steve Young at 101.2 and next best was Favre at 87.1. Crazy Stuff. Anyway, yeah, Hostetler was a better QB than Jones.

@vikesfan1930 What’s the final score predictions? Who wins ?

I’m going 31-28 Vikings.

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