Friday mailbag: Playing starters, O-line issues and coach of the year candidates

Answering fan questions leading up to Vikings-Bears

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! While I can’t guarantee Vikings-Bears will be compelling, I can tell you there’s lots of great questions in the mailbag, so let’s get right to it…

Andrew via email ESPN has the Vikings with a ~96% chance of being the third seed. Reed was bad at blocking generally and much worse at “playing” centre.  #67 remains the worst pass-blocking G in the NFL.  Udoh was the third-string tackle for a reason.  It makes sense to try and get this unit as cohesive as possible going into the playoffs, but there seems to be a material chance of multiple pass pro busts in the first half.  What exactly is the benefit of putting Cousins behind this OL in its first game together?

There have been a lot of enjoyable games for Vikings fans this year but this will not be one of them. This is going to be several hours of fans holding their breath, crossing their fingers and knocking on wood that nobody gets hurt. Maybe there is some type of argument for Cousins and Reed to work together in case Bradbury isn’t healthy enough to return (he hasn’t even practiced on a limited basis this week). But aside from that, playing Cousins feels risky because of the O-line situation and sheer number of hits he’s taken this year. The one benefit is that Chicago’s pass rush unit is downright pathetic. Their leader in QB pressures has 28. That’s 50 less than Za’Darius Smith. So in the best case scenario, Cousins doesn’t take many/any hits and it’ll be a confidence builder.

@FaasDootball You said this past game reminded you of the Green Bay game in 2019, and I see the parallels. But I thought of another game. The 2016 Vikings game vs the packers at lambeau. The only reason why is because of the players not listening to coaches, while going against a game plan is different than not wearing the recommended cleats, it is still wild to think an organization that plays at lambeau every single year would have a misstep like this. Wes Phillips also seemed pretty annoyed by it when he was asked and kinda got into a stern dad mode. Thoughts?

O’Connell seemed about as irritated as I’ve seen him when he was talking about the cleat issue. What Jefferson and Thielen said was that the field in Green Bay changed once the temperature went down and the grass got really slick. Jefferson talked about how running in the longer cleats as a receiver is different but Patrick Peterson said he didn’t feel like they are that different. So, I dunno. It’s probably a thing the coaches are upset about because of the final result. The difference between ‘16 and ‘19 is that in ‘16 the season was over and everyone threw up their hands out of frustration with Zimmer, whereas ‘19 took the air out of everyone’s balloon about the upcoming playoffs. Even the biggest believers took a gut punch in Green Bay.

@ChadBurkitt Is there any evidence that Udoh is actually a decent right tackle? I think I remember him being a terrible right guard, though still significantly better than me.

No, there isn’t. He graded under 40 by PFF in both games (60 is average) at tackle last year and allowed eight pressures in two games. The fact that he dropped down the depth chart behind Brandel is pretty telling. The only thing going for him is that he is really athletic. If he can hold on for dear life and not get demolished, they might be able to work around it with help from Hockenson.

@lpeterson830 Will the Vikings have an even semi-decent offensive line one time before the end of the century?

It’s absolutely wild. By PFF they are currently grading 26th in pass blocking, which makes the fifth straight year they’ve ranked below 20th. The last time the Vikings graded in the top half of the league was 2013. The fact that they have invested either a first or second-round pick in every player on the O-line and this is still the result… wow.

@PFF_Steve Is Trevor Lawrence already the second-best QB in Jaguars history?

I’m gonna say that David Garrard and Byron Leftwich still have better resumes. Garrard won a playoff game in ‘07 after going 9-3 with 18 TDs and 3 INTs and Leftwich had a two-year stretch where he went 16-9 with solid numbers and got them into the postseason once. But the bar isn’t particularly high. The question is whether Lawrence will challenge Brunell someday. That team is set up to be pretty darn good (in a bad division) going forward, especially if Lawrence keeps playing the way he has in the second half of the year.

@mattverick Since you are going to the lowly Soldier field food spread, I have a hypothetical for you. The Vikings come to you and want to take their media food from good to #1 in the league using only foods available from other stadiums, what do they serve?

The Eagles have these tremendous pretzels. Get the brats from Green Bay. Take the metal cups from the Chargers that keep the diet soda ice cold. Los Angeles also had this unreal candy spread (though the Vikings do a great job with that too). I have to say, the Vikings rank pretty darn highly when it comes to the whole experience. Maybe only San Francisco challenges them.

@tadfundermann If JJ goes out and dominates in the first half with 150 yards and the team is up by 3 scores, does KOC pull starters or give JJ the chance to get 44 more yards in the 2nd half to break the record (79 for 2k)?

I think they’d try to get him the record. If they’re going to play him, they’re already taking the risk so they might as well just go for it.

@jrm531 2022 cap is bad. seems like they can create a lot of wiggle room,esp if they can restructure AT/HS. Cut others like EK. LT/C/RT/TE/WR1 appear set long term. Safe to assume 2023 won’t be a “competitive rebuild”(except on D)? It seems they are too young at good spots to rebuild now

Yeah, I don’t see any way they could win 13 games and then start tearing the thing apart. It’ll probably be a very similar offseason where they create as much cap space as they can, sign a few solid players who help them and then hope for a vastly better year from the 2022 class and contributions from the 2023 draft. It won’t be easy though. Danielle Hunter needs a new deal (and has earned it) and they should try to extend Dalvin Tomlinson. It’s gonna be tight again. But I agree with you, there’s no competitive rebuild when you have Cousins under contract + Jefferson and Darrisaw.

@bobh332 Really not excited to drive 3 1/2 hours and spend a lot of money for son’s first playoff game with all the uncertainty of this team. But is this team heading to a possible playoff drought with age and contracts?

There’s always uncertainty with every playoff game. Cherish the day with your son. Don’t rest the value of the experience with him on the outcome of the game. It’s hard to say exactly what’s going to come in the near future but with Detroit and Chicago looking like teams that will be dangerous and Rodgers probably coming back next year, I do think the road is going to be harder. Since 2000, every time the Vikings have won 11 games or more, they missed the playoffs the following year. Of course, there’s a ton of work to do in the offseason and they can break that trend but there’s a lot of older star players to replace or supplement on this roster if they’re going to remain very good.

@headcoach21 It’s clear the Vikings don’t match up well with the 49ers, but are you ruling it out completely that they can beat the 49ers??

Of course not. I was in the building for the Minneapolis Miracle and the comebacks in Buffalo and against the Colts. I never count out anything with this team. The 49ers are clearly a difficult matchup but it’s hardly impossible. It’s more like if they played 10 times, I’d pick the 49ers to win six of those. We still have such a small sample size on Brock Purdy, it’s always possible he has a shockingly bad game at some point. I also think what Davante Adams did to the 49ers does give some life to the idea the Vikings’ offense could play with them.

@smccullough5 Should the NFL just cancel the BUF-CIN game and base playoff seeding based on win percentage? Better yet, let's abolish the current system and just rank the top 14 teams, regardless of conference, and let them duke it out. I know you wouldn't mind.

At very least they can get rid of the division winner system that allows the Bucs to host the Cowboys. That happens way too often. I don’t even care if winning the division gets you an automatic bid to the playoffs but let’s not reward them with a home game. That’s leaving way too much value to the quality (or lack thereof) the rest of the division. I’m going to be honest, I have no idea about the best way to handle the Buffalo-Cincinnati issue. I got lost trying to understand the neutral site scenarios that the NFL is proposing. They just have to do the best they can.

@TheBuenoSport do the Vikings want the matchup the two seed comes with? Thanks as always Matthew.

Trying to make the argument that it’s better to be the No. 3 seed is pretty much just rationalizing. It’s obviously better to have the No. 2 and if you can’t beat the very flawed Lions or Packers, well, you weren’t going deep in the playoffs anyway. Not that I see it as a massive difference. One way or another they will need to beat someone who’s really, really good if they’re going to reach the Super Bowl. It would have been easier to do at home but if they’ve got the goods, they can do it on the road like the Rams did last year.

PalpatinesRobes How many starting veteran defensive starters will not be on the Vikings roster next year? Your over/under number is three.

I’ll definitely take the over there. At cornerback alone I’d expect two new starters. The Duke Shelley story is nice but he’s more of a depth guy. They’d prefer that Andrew Booth Jr. emerges and they clearly need a new nickel corner. At least one linebacker will be different and I’m not sure if Dalvin Tomlinson is still here. Cam Bynum might not be the starting safety next year either, depending on Lewis Cine’s recovery.

@MIvikesfan any chance we see more QB roll outs and perimeter runs (like we saw when Stefanski was OC) to counter the injuries we've seen on the offensive line?

There’s only so much they can adjust at this point in the game. The play-action rollouts haven’t been very effective in this offense, possibly because opposing defenses aren’t afraid of the run game in the same way they were in the past. If anything, they have to be very good in the quick game, screens and running in order to avoid unfavorable situations for the O-line. Cousins’ sack rate skyrockets on third down. From 6.0% on first down to 4.4% on second down to 11.4% on third.

@Just1SBB4IDie Vikings lose in first round Ed Donetell gets fired percent chance they hired Denver's DC Ejiro Evero.

I’d be surprised if Denver let go anyone from the side of the ball that was good last year. If they do, yes, make the call. If they lose in the first round and have a really poor defensive showing, it’ll be almost impossible to bring him back as DC. The defense has been flat out unacceptable this year.

@vikingskolchant You’re in front office meetings this off season. Make the case for drafting a QB rd1 and letting Kirk play out his final year while sitting the rookie. Then make the case for trading Kirk, drafting a rookie and starting him week 1. #whatwouldkwesido

It’s pretty simple: Look at Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson’s extensions. Those were signed about the same age as Kirk and they blew up. He’s been good this year in the big moments but he’s going to ask for massive money for the future. I’m not sure how that can be done with Jefferson and Darrisaw extensions coming soon. We’ve also seen that picking a QB and letting him sit has some big benefits. This would be the Alex Smith succession plan. Makes a lot of sense. The problem is that we might see four QBs taken in the first 10 picks, depending on what the league thinks of Anthony Richardson.

@1Sween How many yards does cousin throw in our 1st playoff game and how many yards does jj get?

Uhhh how about 243 and 108? If it’s the Giants, they can pass against the Giants. They can also run against the Giants. It’s sacks/turnovers and defense that should keep you up at night.

@Curt_Gast Who are significant players you feel will not be around next season?

Decent possibility of them moving on from Kendricks, Hicks, Sullivan, Tomlinson and Cook.

@dantaylor26 Record predictions for next year? We have the NFC South and AFC West

With approximately 10,000 questions to be answered between now and then, I’ll go 10-7.

@somatg3 How long will the Vikings starters play ? Do they rest the older vets ?

From what Kevin O’Connell said, it sounds like they are going to give some rest to the veterans by playing guys like Metellus, Jones, Wonnum and Asamoah. Maybe we’ll see Jalen Reagor or Nailor or some bigger packages to get Thielen off the field. Aside from that, everyone’s gonna be in it to win it. If they’re up three touchdowns, they likely pull everyone.

@1Sween How many games does Lewis cine play next year if any? What is the update on him.

There hasn’t been any sort of update lately aside from that he’s rehabbing. Based on the severity of the injury the best case scenario might be that he’s able to play a few weeks into the season. I’ll say he’s in 12-14 games next year.

@blurapala any chance to improve O line?

Unless they talked Andrew Whitworth into playing right tackle, there’s nothing they can do to improve the line outside of hoping that Bradbury’s back heals and he’s able to play in the postseason. It’s worth noting that Bradbury is a free agent after the season and it might be a tough sell to ask him to risk his future by returning. Those back injuries are nothing to mess with.

@dkall2 What are the chances that S.F. loses on purpose to lock in the 3 seed to not face the Packers?

Zero. The 49ers are not afraid of the Packers at all based on their recent histories. They want to play in Santa Clara.

@LiamKPlays Is Nathan Peterman the final boss to determine if any professional quarterback can move the ball against this Vikings defence?

In hoping to gain confidence from a win, they do risk having even less confidence by giving up actual yards/points to Peterman, yeah.

Andrew: This wasn't exactly the first trip to Lambeau, yet most of the roster was wearing the wrong shoes. There also seemed to be no recognition of--much less planning for/adjusting to--the challenges of playing a third-string C who had never actually played the position. The best WR in football has been shut-down in 25% of games. STC Daniels--whom some thought should become a DC, HC or maybe take over NASA--has a unit that now gives up game-changing plays on a weekly basis. Are we at the point where touting "winning on the margins" should be considered as meaningful as having "the best pizza in town"?

A) When were they supposed to prepare for the third-string center to play? There’s only so much practice time that’s allowed. I’m not sure which team in the NFL would have been dedicating enough time to the third-string center (rather than the starting starter, who’s already a backup) to have him fully prepared. I’m also not sure that would have mattered considering he’d never done it before. Not everything that goes wrong needs to be blamed on someone. It was just an unfortunate situation.

B) I don’t understand the point about Jefferson.

Davante Adams has games of: 12 yards, 36 yards, 3 yards, 28 yards and 15 yards this year.

Tyreek Hill has games of: 33 yards, 47 yards, 44 yards, 55 yards

1998 Randy Moss had games of: 37, 52, 14, 6 and 32.

There’s a reason no receiver has ever reached 2,000 yards: Sometimes teams slow them down. Someone else has to step up. Am I supposed to be criticizing someone for Jefferson’s all-time great season?

C) I’m not playing along with the sarcastic Matt Daniels jab. They’re a top-10 graded special teams unit by PFF and have positive special teams EPA in 13 of 16 games (per Pro-Football Ref). That kick return TD was terrible but Daniels has put together a unit that’s actually dangerous and he’s galvanized that group in pretty remarkable ways. I still feel the same way about him as earlier this year: He should start getting attention as someone with a future as a head coach.

@1Sween After year 1 before the playoff run what grade would you give this administration for their draft and season?

If we’re talking from office…Big picture, they did what they set out to do: Put this team in a position to compete for a Super Bowl this year. Credit for keeping Hunter, re-signing Peterson, signing Za’Darius etc. They did not do anything to improve their odds in the future and made some blunders that probably kept them from having a better chance in the postseason. The draft doesn’t look good, the Hockenson trade was very good. So I’d go with a B.

If we’re talking coaching, again, probably a B. The offense is more dangerous, the players have come together in the way everyone wanted after moving on from Zimmer but we can’t ignore that the defense is abysmal and the losses have been total meltdowns.

Do you feel pretty good about the front office and head coach for the future? I’d say yes.

@eric_thomas12 Late to the party, but why isn’t KOC being considered more for COY? I know there are plenty of deserving candidates (Dabol, Sirianni, Taylor) but going 11-0 in one-score games has to be a huge consideration, is it not?

After this last week, I don’t know how anyone except Sean McDermott could get the award. His leadership through the Damar Hamlin situation combined with all of the adversity that team has faced this year with injuries on defense, a mass shooting in their community and multiple deadly snow storms (one that moved a game)… and to still be in position to play for a Super Bowl. What an unbelievable job.

Some folks might credit an 11-0 record in one-score games, others might look at that as the team not being all that strong overall.

My list would go like this: Sean McDermott, Kyle Shanahan, Nick Sirianni, Zac Taylor, Andy Reid, Kevin O’Connell, Brandon Staley, Brian Daboll, Mike McCarthy, Doug Pederson, Mike Tomlin.

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