Friday Mailbag: Picking apart the pieces
Vikings fans have a lot of questions and critiques for the team's offseason
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone. Championship weekend, already? Whew. Let’s dive into your questions…
Thomas S… Think we’ll ever find out how long KOC’s extension is for and what the salary is?
I would assume that we will find out the terms soon enough. The money part of it doesn’t matter at all though since there’s no salary cap on coaches. We can pretty safely figure that the length is going to go through JJ McCarthy’s rookie deal. As far as I’m concerned the Vikings should want KOC to lead them through thick and thin going forward. You want to be the team that has an Andy Reid, John Harbaugh or Sean McDermott or Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan that’s there every year and has a chance to keep building as a coach.
Alan G…Did Cam Bynum get exposed in the run game vs the Lions. Felt like Gibbs ran around him like he was a middle schooler.
Who didn’t Gibbs run around like a middle schooler? He averaged 5.6 yards per carry and tied for the most 10+ yard runs in the NFL. I wouldn’t judge John Randle off trying to catch Barry Sanders or Deion Sanders if he got beat by Jerry Rice.
Bynum graded 19th by PFF of 63 safeties in tackling and 33rd in run defense. He’s a good player, man. Just because they had two bad games, we can’t just forget how guys played in the bigger picture.
However, there is a question about whether the Vikings should re-sign Bynum. There’s going to be a lot of interest in him around the league. There are six safeties that make above $15 million. If that’s where teams are offering Bynum, the Vikings probably shouldn’t match that. Guys in his ballpark usually make around $10 million. That would be more manageable. Then they could either pair him with Theo Jackson or move Metellus back with him in the Harrison Smith role if Harry doesn’t come back.
Matt R… Who is your pick for "under the radar" Vikings free agent the team should prioritize bringing back?
Trent Sherfield and Jonathan Bullard would be the two for me. Sherfield was an elite gunner and did a good job as a bit player in the run game. Bullard was a real bang-for-buck type player in the run game. I’m sure nobody wants Risner back after the interior O-line thing but if nobody else around the NFL wants to sign him and he’d come back at $2 million, that’s fine with me as depth.
Ben…. Can you explain to the anti Kwesi crowd why extending O’Connell and firing Kwesi is the WRONG move??
Is there really an anti-Kwesi crowd or just the same handful of people who run into every comment section or every social media platform and try to start fights because they have nothing better to do? We have to stop treating trolling as real legitimate opinions.
The Vikings signed foundational superstars to long-term contracts last year, won 14 games and have the 7th most cap space in the NFL and an answer for the future at quarterback. Nothing more needs to be said about how the front office has managed the roster.
Like I wrote the other day, when Kwesi and KOC took over the job, they were ranked 6th out of 10 for the situations that new regimes were taking over. To be here at this point is beyond impressive. There’s no other rational way to look at it.
Brad L…It looks like Flores won’t become a HC. Others loss is our gain. Is there a more important/impactful offseason “move” than that?
There’s a lot of good things about Flores staying but maybe the best is that he gets to continue on with the development process of the next wave of players. Dallas Turner is at the top of that list but also Mekhi Blackmon, Dwight McGlothern, Levi Drake Rodriguez, Jalen Redmond, Theo Jackson, Gabe Murphy, Bo Richter… and a handful of others who have a chance to become something with Flores. It also gives you more trust in the free agent process. He seemingly hand picked Van Ginkel and Cashman and played a role in getting Gilmore to Minnesota. They’ll need to make good choices there again.
Steve C… I'll be very interested in the rest of the hiring in the NFC North, when the hires are announced. MCDC has both coordinators to replace, and I'll be interested to see what Ben Johnson's staff looks like. Extra credit if you can get Donatell an interview :)
Yeah the Ben Johnson thing is interesting on a few levels. Being good at scheming up screens and play-actions is great but being a head coach is so, so much more than that. Matt Eberflus was good at the X’s and O’s of defense and really poor at managing a locker room and a game. As for the Lions, it’s hard to see a world where they fall off too much. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be exactly the same though. We saw that in 2017 when the Falcons lost Kyle Shanahan and they weren’t quite the same as the team that reached the Super Bowl.
What I know is that there’s no way to know who’s going to be good or bad on the day they get hired. Go back and look at the reactions to Dan Quinn being hired by Washington last year. Nobody liked it.
Brad L… Where are you placing the odds that we trade for Cam Akers a third year in a row?
KOC loves that guy. He’s been really good for them both years. I’d say 60%. And I have no problem with that. He just can’t be the only guy back there.
Eldon… Do you think the Vikings bring back Daniel Jones and if they do what do you think it means for the Darnold discussion?
The timing of these things is likely to tell us the answer. If Jones re-signs before the franchise tag decision is made, then it’s pretty darn clear that he’s the backup/bridge. If Jones wants to wait until free agency to see what the market has for him, then that will be beyond the franchise tag deadline and we’ll already have the answer.
With Jones, there has to be at least a handful of teams that would want him to compete for a starting spot. If the Steelers don’t trade for Darnold or bring back Russell Wilson (who might retire, apparently), who’s playing QB for them? Justin Fields? Andy Dalton? Bubby Brister? Jones would have a good shot to start there. If Jones stays in Minnesota, McCarthy is very, very likely the Week 1 starter. I’m not sure he wants to be a pure backup.
Adam…. Kwesi has previously stated he might have tried too hard to fix all the roster needs (or words to that effect) in 2022, leading to that disastrous draft. With so many things to address, do you think he’ll now focus resources on a really solving a few key areas long term (say 3 new starters for iOL) and make do with what we have or lower tier options elsewhere (e.g. let Jackson play rather than add another safety)?
This season shouldn’t be all that different from last year. They have a QB decision with a lot of moving parts and then a lot of free agent maneuvering to do and not a lot of draft picks to work with. It’s likely to be the same approach. They will have to assess the price on guys like Bynum and Murphy Jr. the same way they did with Danielle Hunter last offseason and then they’ll look for one big money player and then several second-tier free agents to hold down the big areas of need. One thing they have to be careful about is drafting guys to fill needs right away. We know from Turner that everyone isn’t ready on Day 1.
But overall, after several offseasons of doing this, it seems that the coaches and front office have an understanding of the cadence and know how to execute it together.
Jason…How many years are you trying to add to KOC’s contract if you are the Vikings? What about if you are KOC? This question presumes the terms still haven’t come out now.
Four would make sense to me. All the way through McCarthy’s rookie contract before you’re negotiating again. I want him and McCarthy tied together with no questions about KOC coming up until they’re deciding on a long-term deal for McCarthy and then in the best-case scenario they can do both of those contracts at the same time too… but that’s getting a ways ahead of ourselves.
Pickle Enjoyer…. When you were in college, did you ever in a million years think that you would end up living in Minnesota? What's parts of it do you like/dislike?
I assumed that I wouldn’t be staying in Buffalo forever. I didn’t really envision Minnesota but I always aimed for a top-25 market. When I saw the 1500ESPN job come up back in 2016, I jumped on it immediately. I was familiar with Reusse and Judd already from Twitter and I thought the Vikings would be a great team to cover. I had already had an interview in Seattle a few months before that, so I saw myself as being close to a big(ish) market type of job.
I don’t have anything I dislike about Minnesota other than the fact that drivers treat 55 mph like it means 52 mph in the left lanes and the merging is an absolute disaster. It’s been a dream landing spot for me and the wife. When people ask where I’m from, I say that I grew up in Buffalo but I’m from Minnesota.
Bradley P… You’re in control of the Vikings. What steps do you take to fix the run game?
It’s a multi-faceted thing. I would want the offensive line coach or assistant to be the run-game coordinator. The run game is so driven by the O-line, I want the big fellas up front dictating the run scheme, not the RB coach. They need a running back in his prime with legit burst. Aaron Jones did a great job this year but the burst wasn’t the same as the year went on. They need new big guys up front who can push the pile. The Vikings only ran for 100 first downs this year (22nd) and 23 were by Darnold. KOC also has to be comfortable occasionally doing it twice in a row. It seemed like he was happy to run on first down but never again. It’s not statistically great to run on second down all the time but there were times where it was working and they would go away from it. I do think if he had beasts up front and a star in the backfield, they’d do it a lot more. That’s probably why they have to draft one this year.
Substack user… Hi Matthew, Sorry for being late to the party! My question is on the potential compensatory picks for the Vikings. I have read in many places that these are important considerations, mostly for Darnold and Daniel Jones. Given the Vikes cap space, limited draft picks and multiple needs, how realistic is it for them to be on the plus side of this equation?
The Vikings picking up Jones was partly because they knew they might be able to grab an additional 6th rounder if he leaves and signs elsewhere but I don’t think Darnold’s situation has much to do with compensatory picks. The QB spot is about what’s best for the entire franchise as a whole. If they think that having Darnold start 2025 is the best thing for them long term with JJ McCarthy, then he’s going to start and comp pick be darned (or delayed). Also, needs to be noted that any comp pick would be in the 2026 draft, so that’s why the tag-and-trade is being talked about a lot.
The whole comp pick thing has always been maddening for me. If the Vikings sign several free agents, they won’t get much or anything back in the comp pick market. The comp picks are also — aside from Kirk leaving — 6th and 7th rounders that rarely move the needle. You’d think the way they’re talked about that comp picks are shaping franchises or something.
Thomas S…Thanks for your outstanding coverage this year, Matthew. Your perspective and insights were much appreciated! A very random question for you: Why in the world is Arthur Smith getting HC interviews? He failed miserably in Atlanta and didn’t distinguish himself in Pittsburgh.
Appreciate it, sir. This offseason in particular it seemed like teams that needed head coaches were doing tons and tons of interviews. Maybe they were just hunting for insights rather than seriously considering guys like Smith. Funny how the NFL works sometimes though. It wasn’t too long ago that Smith was masterminding the renaissance of Ryan Tannehill and dominance of Derrick Henry en route to playoff seasons in Tennessee. Weirdly, when he attempted to play football with Desmond Ridder, he was a bad coach. Same goes for Pittsburgh. Russ Wilson hasn’t been good since the beginning of 2021. I have no idea if Smith is a good coach or not. He might have just been doing what he felt like Wilson could handle.
Jon D… Talk me into the Vikings trading away the last few draft picks this year so they all can have a nice long holiday rather than grinding away over the spring for three picks?
Hey now, that’s going to be FOUR picks after the Kirk Cousins comp pick!
It might be six picks if they tag and trade Darnold.
The more likely answer is trading down. I don’t think Kwesi should chase his losses from the past and worry about what happened in 2022. Trading back into the early part of the second round is probably a good idea this year.
JAY FULLER… Hey Matt, honestly, what are the odds that the Vikings tag & trade Darnold?
Maybe 60%? If they believe McCarthy is going to be fully ready to roll out Week 1, then it makes the most sense to tag and trade. Somebody like the Raiders can acquire him and negotiate a new deal from there. If I’m the Vikings, I’m asking for a second-round pick because… who else is going to play QB for the Raiders? Tom Brady? Rich Gannon? Josh McCown? You could say the same thing for Pittsburgh or Tennessee if they don’t love Cam Ward or Cleveland.
Matt D… Any interesting scheme or play calling data out there on the teams that have been more successful over the last few years in the run game, especially in short yardage? I know having guys like Barkley and Hurts helps, obviously, but are those teams doing anything dramatically different aside from just trotting out better players?
The QB being a difference maker in the run game is by far the biggest factor. The top 4 teams in rushing had Lamar, Hurts, Allen, and Daniels. The fifth best team was the Lions with their amazing O-line and first-round RB. The team that’s most intriguing to me is the Bucs. Their O-line ranked 16th in run blocking by PFF yet they averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Bucky Irving was fantastic but there has to be something schematic about it.
As far as short yardage goes, I did some research on it and found that they passed so much more often than they ran and when they ran it was really ineffective. Ben Goessling had a tweet about this toward the end of the year. Basically, the Vikings RBs got hit behind the line of scrimmage 50% of the time they ran inside the red zone. This is where the O-line and scheme come into the picture. They couldn’t just plow forward and it didn’t seem like there was a ton of creativity in short yardage.
TheDude… Noticing a few teams picking their HCs before GMs... Is that a recipe for disaster?
Pairing them together makes the most sense. I don’t know about the order of operations but they better be on the same page.
Jeffrey Utz… Best guess on How many new starters Vikes will have in 7 mos and 10 days? On off and def?
I’ll go with four on offense… three on the O-line, one in the backfield. And one new DT, one new safety, two new corners on defense. This roster isn’t going to be overhauled all that much, just bolstered in a few areas.
Rzuppelli… Please rank (1-4) who should be most disappointed in their season in the NFC North. What compensation should we expect for the pending KOC trade?
The Lions should be most disappointed. Winning 15 games and running away from the NFL in scoring has to result in a Super Bowl appearance or it’s a disaster. There’s no way around that. The Bears are next. They could have easily won five more games with the slightest bit of competence. Green Bay after that because they didn’t go as far as last year. The Vikings certainly let everyone down in the playoffs but they overachieved by as much as anyone ever has in history vs. their over-under. I was thinking about the other day… if the Vikings won 10 games and got eliminated in the first round, we woulda gone: “Hey, good season, team on the rise!” Because they won 14, the playoffs were a complete failure.
Tony G… What was the last Super Bowl team to win with a subpar offensive line?
The Vikings finished 15th in pass blocking and 14th in run blocking by PFF. Overall, they were par, not subpar. The problem is that they faded down the stretch when teams figured out their weaknesses and they didn’t have a solution. I mean, they won 14 games with this O-line and then we treat it like hot garbage because the best D-line in the league won their battle (and also won it against the Eagles, big time).
Anyway, the 49ers made the Super Bowl with the 26th ranked pass blocking unit last year. Does that count? In 2021, the Bengals made the Super Bowl ranking 25th. In 2019, the 49ers made it ranking 19th.
I’ve been tired since probably 2018 of the O-line getting blamed for everything all the time. Literally every single game where the offense isn’t great, the masses cry out in agony over the lack of Steve Hutchinson and Randall McDaniel.
Certainly I’d like to see the Vikings find those guys too but the reality is: Defensive lines are going to win up front, you have to have counter punches. The Commanders are 22nd in pass blocking this year. The Rams were 30th. Find a way.
Speedi…Do you think having their ass kicked was better for the Vikings than, say, a 30-20 game where they were competitive? It clarifies how far behind the elite teams the Vikes are on the offensive line, running game, and short passing. It shouldn't have surprised them, as I am sure they read Purple Insider religiously.
Short passing is another crazy thing. Sam Darnold graded 5th by PFF on throws between 0-9 yards with a 113.9 passer rating, fourth best in the league. They weren’t far from the elite teams overall on the O-line considering there’s one team remaining who ranked lower than them and the Chiefs were only two spots ahead (yes, I know, Mahomes). In the playoffs, the short game just wasn’t there and the line just didn’t hold up. Matchups tend to dictate a lot. Same as Washington beating Detroit. They were better suited at QB and scheme and run game to evade the blitzes.
What I think happened was that the Arizona Cardinals discovered that the line could be taken advantage of with blitzes from depth (LBs, CBs) and they struggled with stunts/twists. Then they faced a Detroit team that was blitzing non-stop because they lost so many players and a Rams team that knew exactly when/what/where to rush and had massive one-on-one advantages. And the QB got shook and never recovered.
Yes, they need to make some changes. But I don’t think they have to look at the playoff games and start altering everything they do.
Arin J… Hi Matthew, I heard the argument for keeping Darnold, Salary cap, the point I would argue is that the Vikings would have significantly more cap room this year and would allow the front office to put more of the signings on this year's cap saving room on future years caps in case more signings need to occur in future years. Franchise tag and trade makes sense if there is a partner. Oconnell made Cousins, Darnold, Mullins better, why would anything he can't do the same thing with McCarthy or Daniel Jones. Maybe not the same level as Darnold but maybe better than Darnold under pressure. McCarthy s best attribute was off schedule play according to some scouts. It could be better. If he's ready.
I don’t have any problem with your logic, as long as McCarthy is ready. I don’t know what else to say about it, other than the assumption Jones is back here is a stretch because so many teams need QBs.
Any time I write or say anything that even remotely suggests that tagging Darnold would work, I get hit over the head with a sledge hammer from everyone with an internet connection and called a JJ hater (which is absolutely insane to anyone who follows this newsletter or the podcast). So I’m done talking about that side of it. Hopefully they move on so Darnold finds a place where it can work out for him because I would not enjoy the fans booing him and calling for McCarthy every time they went three-and-out if Darnold stayed.
Bradley P… If the Vikings tag Darnold is it correct to assume, if he’s traded, it’ll likely happen right after? I want the team to have that full $40M to spend.
I can’t say that for sure. They could pull the Sam Bradford/Carson Wentz scenario where they hang onto the veteran until they see that the young guy is really ready to roll and then wait for a QB desperate team. The problem with that is trying to trade a player on the franchise tag takes a lot of cap space. They would probably want to get it done sooner than later.
Evan… Does the KOC extension change your prediction of JJ starting vs. Sam coming back? I.e if he knows he isn’t playing for his job, is KOC more or less likely to play JJ at the start of the season do you think?
I never thought anything other than a KOC extension would happen, so it doesn’t change anything as far as my expectations. The other day on the pod, I went with 60% McCarthy and my pal Will Ragatz said 80%. Others in the media room went 100% McCarthy, so if I were predicting it last week or tomorrow, I would lean on the side of No. 9 starting next year. If KOC hadn’t signed an extension, I suppose it’s possible he would have been more likely to want the proven guy back.
Florian K… Is there any explanation why a 14-3 team, which was wildly more successful than expected, feels like under achievers?
When everything going into Week 18 pointed toward this team being a legitimate contender and then they didn’t look anywhere close to that for two weeks, it was a pretty enormous shock to the system. They beat the Packers in a huge game on a national state in Week 17, outscored opponents by 122 points prior to the Lions game and had a top-10 offense, top-5 defense and a quarterback playing on the fringe of the MVP conversation.
They lost two games all year before Week 18 by a grand total of 12 points. Every guest that I had on before the Lions game was picking it to be 38-35 or something crazy. After the Lions defeat, the team seemed to have bounced back emotionally and looked ready to roll against the Rams. They didn’t have any key injuries outside of Darrisaw and Sam Darnold had always been calm under pressure the entire year. Think about this: Before Week 18, Darnold ranked 8th in PFF grade under pressure and had the second highest pressured passer rating in the league. Then he is pressured on 51% of drop-backs, has a 56 PFF grade and 45.4 QB rating and as many sacks as first downs. Who saw that coming?
It was so insanely different from any other point in the season that it was a massive letdown. When O’Connell said that he watched back the tape way more times than what was healthy, I definitely related because I did the same thing. I watched back the Rams game twice and then watched some other film breakdowns looking for how the heck that happened.
It’s the cruelty of football. I was thinking about how if they had lost the Seattle game and never had the massive Week 18 game, they probably rest starters Week 18 in Detroit and then are at full strength against the Rams rather than going in having gone through the meat tenderizer that is Detroit. I also wondered how it would have turned out if they had ended up playing Tampa Bay instead. Who knows.
Every franchise has examples of this happening. How many times did Aaron Rodgers win 12 or 13 games and then lost in the playoffs for whatever reason? In 2011 the Packers went 15 and freaking 1 and got blown out by the Giants at home 37-20. There are dozens and dozens of examples of this happening throughout history.
We can look over all the different reasons but that’s just how the game goes sometimes. It’s always driven me crazy that the universe completely forgets about the entire season because of the result of one game at the end.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Purple Insider to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.