Friday mailbag part 1: When will the Vikings have a GM?
Vikings fans are getting antsy waiting for the next leadership group to be announced
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone. Before you get into the mailbag, look up toward the football gods and pray for better playoff games this week. Alrighty, let’s get into it…
@rgonzalez021991 You think the wilfs loyalty to the past GM and coach cost them a Súper bowl?
If you stopped the question at “cost them,” I would say yes. A Super Bowl? I can’t say that. If they fired Zimmer and Spielman after 2019 and had every decision go exactly right — let’s say they traded up for Herbert, didn’t trade Diggs, hit on a bunch of defensive draft picks and signed all the right guys and then hired the right coach with the right scheme, maybe you’re talking about them still playing this weekend. Even then it would be hard to say Super Bowl. If they hired George Paton and Kevin Stefanski in 2020, they still would have had a ton of work to do. I think a lotta folks, including Zimmer/Spielman/Wilfs, underestimated how hard it would be to replace half the defense with no cap space and then still make improvements on offense. Would they be in a better overall position had they made those changes then? Absolutely. The next group wouldn’t have been panicked to “win now” to save their jobs and justify the Cousins contract.
@kevingustafson When do you think we get a new gm and coach.
They are still interviewing the first round of GMs, so I’m thinking next week we get finalists and somebody named. It won’t be too long after that for a head coach to be hired. I have to think that a major part of the conversations with the Wifls and their search party is about the next head coach and getting everybody on the same page with who they want.
@SchielBrian As a group, do you think the 2021 draft class is the happiest to see big changes? They now have a chance to be evaluated without the backdrop of the Rick/Mike cold war.
Everybody is relieved that the Rick/Mike cold war is over but I’m not sure the 2021 class was victimized. Who was really ready to make an impact? Wyatt Davis had a 40.3 pass blocking grade in preseason and wasn’t in shape, per Zimmer. As long as I covered Zimmer, he was not wrong often about player evaluation. And it’s fine if Davis developed for a year rather than playing. Chazz Surratt was never going to play in Year 1. Neither was Mond. Patrick Jones showed that he wasn’t ready. Maybe the next coach will want to use Kene Nwangwu more but he was hurt half the season, so we can’t say they completely botched using him. All of these guys have the potential for big steps forward but that’s every draft class. It’s rarely the case that they come on the scene and change the franchise.
@SrEconomy Early entry for your mailbag… “How the Viking’s draft goals may changed based on new GM? Or HC?”
I would love to take a shot at this but we don’t even know who these people are yet. It will be really interesting to study their philosophy in their first draft. We got used to the Spielman classics of picking third or fourth-round D-linemen and fifth or sixth-round receivers every year with hopes of recreating Hunter/Diggs. The biggest change might be drafting a QB in the first, which we haven’t seen since 2015.
@mikekerrane Do you think the Vikings are actually “casting a wide net” in their HC search? Or just a different net than the one we expected. You’d think a wide net would include more than one current offensive playcaller.
Not having talked to Daboll or Leftwich yet is curious but sometimes the last person interviewed is the one they wanted all along. There’s no limit on how many potential coaches you can talk with, so it seems like they’re meeting with all of them. My mind has been on the offensive coaches since they fired Zimmer too but Sean McDermott and John Harbaugh are two elite coaches without offensive backgrounds, so I don’t think it absolutely has to be a current play caller to be a success.
@blurapala What is the latest date GM and coach need to be hired so they are not behind in prepping for next season?
I would assume the answer here is the Super Bowl. They’ll need to evaluate the roster and formulate a free agency plan pretty quickly but every team that plays in the Super Bowl does that same short window.
@rinkygolf Do the HC interviews ahead of hiring a GM signal ownership wants to just slim down the candidate pool for HC, by ruling some people out? Does it signal ownership is the final say on the HC vs. the new GM making that decision?
Yeah. I’m assuming they have a pretty good idea from talking with all these GMs who they are most likely to hire. It has to be one of the first questions, right? So if you hear from three GM candidates that they like DeMeco Ryans, ownership can talk to Ryans and get their feel for him before making the GM hire and then they don’t have to start from scratch when the GM comes aboard.
@HereWeSkol What's the max we could get for Kirk if we were to trade him. I'm hearing 3 firsts for Russ. According to my Twitter feed Kirk is better then Russ. Another said a second and we pay half his contract. So where in the middle do yall land?
You’re going to have to work on that Twitter feed. It’s a wacky place out there. Somebody needs to take the Pro-Football Reference keys away from some folks online. Anyone trading for Cousins takes on a $35 million cap hit, which makes it tougher to get crazy good return but it would be really surprising if they couldn’t get more for him than the Jets got for Sam Darnold or Philly got for Carson Wentz. Heck, maybe the Panthers will do something nutty again. Teams get pretty desperate when they look at a roster they believe is good enough and they don’t have a good QB. See: 2018 Vikings.
@ECH33K Which GM HC combo would have the biggest potential upside for the Vikings? Kwesi and Raheem? Poles and Hackett? What combination would be a disaster?
If we’re being honest, nobody knows, man. Unless it’s Urban Meyer and Matt Millen, how could anyone pretend they have any idea how it will play out? I lean toward it being a better play to get a cap-focused type of GM and an offensive-minded HC but there’s plenty of examples of other types of backgrounds from GMs and HCs that have worked out. Try to find people who have a modern approach who are known for forming good relationships but that’s about all you can do. It’s like Mike Tyson said: Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Everybody’s got a plan until they’re actually a GM and HC.
@fish3320 Not sure what side of the Cousins fence you sit on, but if we get rid of him as many suggest we should, who do we get and how does that make us better? I'll hang up and listen.
Call me crazy but…there’s a fence? If we remove the meaningless final week games over the last two years, they’ve won 13 games. People can yell at each other over who’s fault it was and QB rating and PFF grade all day long but the team hasn’t been remotely successful. Is this where I mention the “definition of insanity” thing?
Realistically, you have two routes to winning in the NFL: 1) You get a decent QB in the draft and stack the roster around him 2) You draft a legend like Mahomes. There’s other ways like San Francisco acquiring Garoppolo or Brady showing up in Tampa Bay but those are pretty rare. Favre’s not coming back and there isn’t a Jimmy G-esque backup to trade for, so onto the draft.
@ryantrobinson Year prediction when the offense line is fixed
I’ll say it’s probably soon. Having locked-in tackles is a good thing. Cleveland looks competent at left guard. If they put some money into the right guard and center positions, they’ve got a chance to be decent within the next year or two.
@TyTyBuckets Gun to your head. If you’re starting a team do you take Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson?
The “gun to your head” thing is a little unnerving but I’ll take Jefferson with the slightest of slight edges. Chase might have a little bit more explosion, Jefferson might have a little bit more all-around route-running talent. But the answer is: Give me either one, seven days a week. Both incredible players. Weird how the LSU coaching staff probably wasn’t the reason they won the national championship.
Len via email: will you guess a surprising cut/trade and is surprising keep/resign.
Surprising cut/trade would be Adam Thielen or Harrison Smith. Surprising re-sign would be Patrick Peterson or Tyler Conklin. It feels like there’s no chance Anthony Barr is back.
@MannyHill84 What’s the best course of action in re-tooling/rebuilding a defense that was horrendous against the run and couldn’t cover anyone in 2021? Where do you weigh drafting vs spending in free agency (assuming Cousins’ is moved and you have some $$ to work with)?
It starts with the secondary. At this moment, the only experienced players on the roster are Harrison Smith and Cam Dantzler. Taking the long approach by drafting several CBs and aiming to sign players who are not top-of-the-line free agents but guys with some experience and potential is the way to go. I know I use Buffalo examples all the time but, well, they’re good, and they got Micah Hyde from Green Bay in free agency and he’s turned into a star. Find one or two guys like that.
It’s not a one-step process though. Rebuilding entirely through one-year free agent signings doesn’t work. They have to make a decision on Hunter and then either spend a ton of money or high draft pick on another edge rusher. We’ve seen over the years that the slow development process of mid-rounders isn’t all that fruitful.
@GodfreyJon I know he's a defensive guy and probably much too closely tied to Zimmer, but shouldn't Andre Patterson get an interview for HC? He seems like a great football mind and communicator that players love and it seems like he should get at least a look. Am I missing something?
Andre is a highly respected coach who is loved by his players. From all indications, he’s a truly caring person as well. That’s all laudable. But there isn’t much of a case for him as a head coach. His only two years as a coordinator in his career are 2020 and 2021 as Co-DC and the defense was abysmal both years. If they’re looking for someone to modernize the team, I don’t see how it would make sense to hire Zimmer’s right-hand man.
From a reporter perspective, Andre has always been incredibly accommodating and seemed to really enjoy teaching us about football. I’ll miss that part of covering him.
David via email: you talked about Buffalo Wings last week in Buffalo. Have you found any here that are decent? I understand it isn’t the same lol.
I don’t mean to insult our great state here but…I gave up on wings in Minnesota. The problem with wings is that if they are mediocre, they’re bad. It’s not like my golf game where I can play really average and have a good time. Wings are a tricky art. When I see on the menu that the sauce options just say, “Buffalo,” that means it’s not really an art here. I’ve gotten lots of suggestions and I appreciate them, it’s just not the same as the universe’s No. 1 wing city. That’s how it goes. I’ll try hot dish and fair food.
@rk2022 Is it kinda odd the Vikings haven't brought in 2nd in command Assistant General Managers
I would assume after they hire a GM, that person will have someone he/she wants to be the No. 2 in command.
@tua76466_g Percentage chance Kirk gets traded or extended. Even if he gets extended, chances new GM drafts qb at some point in next 2 years? Thanks!
I’ll say 60% traded, 80% not the QB by 2023 and 90% they draft a QB in the next two years. Even if you think Cousins can win with better guards, he’s not young or growing or getting to the next level. What you see is what you get and there’s clearly no all-in mentality from him about being a Minnesota Viking. See: The fact that he hasn’t said a word yet about his coach and GM getting fired. That’s not what I’d call invested. So they’re going to be looking for someone who does have upside to build around, the same way KC moved on from Alex Smith, Cincinnati from Andy Dalton or Buffalo from Tyrod Taylor.
@NorthStarsNHL What do you personally think happened that caused the Wilf’s to change their mind from retaining Spielman as GM or in another role as people were reporting to outright firing him?
There are some rumors about details there but broadly what makes the most sense is they realized how toxic things had become and how frustrated people in the building were and decided they needed to start completely new.
@HandAvenue I feel like the 49ers OC has some real Brandon Staley vibes (and then some). I see Miami is interviewing him now, too. Think MN will kick the tires at all?
Mike McDaniel? Sure, why not. He’s taken a Stefanski-like path of working up the ladder, even working in the UFL (go Sacramento Mountain Lions!). He’s coming from an offensive system that has succeeded in a lot of places, too. That’s worth a look.
@fish3320 Who on the Vikings roster would be addition, by subtraction; whether it's for financial, production, or chemistry reasons?
Well, there’s an obvious answer here but aside from Cousins it would be financially wise to move on from Harrison Smith and Dalvin Cook. I know nobody likes that answer but if you think about both players A) still having trade value B) likely to fall off in the coming years, then neither is worth paying what they’re set to make next season. I’d be surprised if a new GM came in and started trading away guys who have been staples over the last few years but I’d respect the calculated approach.
@WarleyOwl Given the cap situation, is there effectively a decision between having either Cousins or Hunter on the roster next year (or neither)?
I don’t think it comes down to that exactly. It’s more about how efficient they believe it is to keep both. They could extend them and lower each of their cap hits and work around those. Is that the right way to go for a team with many needs, though?
The Vikings are in a position they haven’t been in a long time — where it makes more sense to be moving on from good players than it does paying them. We’ll see if the new GM thinks that or if they want to aim to get back into the playoffs quickly.
@CLYNCH17 Likelihood we trade Kirk this off-season? And what we could expect to get back in return ?
Do we think the Mond draft pick and (mild) attempt to trade up for Fields were hints about where ownership wants its new GM to go with Cousins? I tend to think that. Yes, it’s a new regime, but I can’t imagine the Wilfs think they’ve gotten good return on investment from Cousins. There was some buzz before last year’s draft that they wanted to pick his successor. The question for me isn’t what they can get back as much as: What’s the least they’ll take in a trade? A second-round pick? Having to take back some of the money to get a first? A conditional first? A player? Hard to know.
@headcoach21 Who are some former head coaches or coordinators that owners should put on the “ do not call list” when it comes to their head coach openings?
I don’t think there’s anyone out there in the hiring cycle that I’d say they shouldn’t call. If we’re talking recent head coaches who don’t have HC jobs now there’s quite a few. Put Matt Patricia up there on the NEVER EVER CALL list. Same with Urban Meyer. Joe Judge. Jay Gruden. Hue Jackson. Doug Marrone. It feels like we’ve hit a point where the next crop is more promising — then again, Jason Garrett (also on the list) was a great looking candidate at one time.
@ATKing53632390 You've discussed that no teams have a track record of being "great" at drafting and there is a lot of randomness involved. Is free agency the same way?
PFF wrote a piece about the teams that approached last year’s free agency the best but it would be a much tougher task to figure out hits/misses with free agency than the draft. With the draft, if the guy becomes a starter, it’s a good pick. If he’s an All-Pro, it’s a great pick. With free agency, let’s say a team with no chance to win the Super Bowl spends over market value to get a decent player and then that player performs well and the team goes 6-11. Was it a great signing? I do think that there’s a huge edge in the sport between teams that get it and teams that don’t get it when it comes to when to pay free agents, including their own. Maybe the Vikings can get back on the right side of that with a new GM.
@NicholasMMiller Let’s just assume the candidate we have so far are the final candidates. I know it’s tough because we don’t know a ton about these GM candidates, but what GM/Coach pairs do you think make the most sense and what do you think their philosophy might be?
If you’re looking for GM resumes that have a background in a data-driven approach and coaches who come from modern offensive systems, you could see something like a pairing of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Nate Hackett. To tell you the truth, I’m going to look at whoever they put together and try to figure out what their approach will be based on what they say and do rather than coming up with a baseless blazing take about the choice. That’s why I’m not writing RANK THE CANDIDATES articles. Because nobody knows. There’s so many smart people and accomplished coaches on the list, I’m sure we won’t be walking into the first press conference going, “what were they thinking???” It’ll be quite the process of sifting through generic platitudes to try and pick out hints about the direction. I’m looking forward to it.
@CoreyHermanson You have clairvoyant abilities for scouting one QB prospect, who you know with 100% certainty will turn out exactly like Derek Carr. How high do you draft that player?
Number one overall. But you have to understand that you’re making that pick to play him for five years and then likely move on unless you’re on the doorstep of a Super Bowl roster wise. Carr’s 2016 Raiders team was 12-3 and then he got hurt, costing them a chance at a deep playoff run. Had he not gotten injured, maybe they end up in the Super Bowl. The only AFC team to produce more points in ‘16 was the Patriots. We’ve seen teams have legit chances to win with loaded rosters as long as the QB on a rookie deal meets a certain threshold.
That’s my contention about this year’s draft. Carr and Jimmy G were second-round picks. Sam Howell is kinda in their ballpark as a prospect. If that’s who you get, you can build a winner around that as long as the guy isn’t taking up huge cap space.
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