Friday mailbag part 1: Harbaugh mania ends

But Vikings fans still want to know what happened for the Vikings to end up with Kevin O'Connell instead

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. What a week. The Vikings have a new head coach and we were overloaded with Harbaugh drama. Apologies if I missed anybody’s questions. There were a lot that came my way this week (which I greatly appreciate). Let’s dive into it..

Jonathan via email: Might need a pie chart for this one. Who is the favorite to be the Vikings starting QB in 2022? (Cousins,Rookie QB,Bridge QB)Sounds like with the hire of O’Connell a Kirk Cousins trade became more likely.

I’ll go with: Bridge QB 40%, Rookie QB 30%, Cousins 30%. I can’t be sure how to interpret O’Connell’s hire as it pertains to Cousins. We can only connect the dots with Kirk’s contract, where the team stands and potential interest around the league in acquiring him. Cousins and O’Connell could be tight and he might believe he has the magic formula or it may have been a big part of the interview process about which QB he wants to draft. The way I look at it, you don’t change coach and GM and then stay with a veteran QB who hasn’t won. Yes, it’s not all Cousins’ fault but it’s usually a total reset in these cases.

@RevJASquires Can anything be deduced about what you think O’Connell’s idea of what an ideal QB might be from looking at the QBs he coached in the past: 2015 Browns = Johnny Manziel 2017 WFT = Kirk Cousins 2018 WFT = Alex Smith 2019 WFT = Dwayne Haskins/Case Keenum 2020 Rams = Jared Goff 2021 Rams = Matthew Stafford

The thing that sticks out to me is that the Rams moved on from an immobile QB who had limited physical capabilities to a big-armed former No. 1 overall pick. It couldn’t have been lost on O’Connell that having a dude at QB who can make a special play outta nowhere can make a coach look a lot smarter. Aaron Rodgers described guys like Kirk and Goff as “paper quarterbacks.” They can handle the X’s and O’s but can’t take it to another level. Goff had huge QB ratings and yardage totals in 2017 and 2018 but there was something missing.

@McMark47 Do you think O’Connell will want Kirk? Any ideas in an OC?

If I was taking over a team that wasn’t super duper desperate to win the Super Bowl next year, I would want to pick my own quarterback and hope to build around that guy. Take the example of Doug Pederson in Philadelphia. They had Sam Bradford under contract and Bradford was actually pretty good the year before under Chip Kelly. But they drafted Wentz, traded Bradford and stacked the roster around the young player. As far as OC, I wondered about Bill Callahan. He’s a former OC who is considered one of the best O-line coaches in the league (currently working for the Browns as OL coach). Here’s a name that would be really intriguing: Zac Robinson. He’s the QB coach in LA. Former QB who worked for Pro Football Focus for a year-plus. Talk about leaning into the analytics.

@CokinosJohn Who is next DC for Vikings

So many options. I do think they should look for someone with experience when you have a first-time head coach. Here’s a list of potential DCs by CBS’s Jonathan Jones. Some recognizable names that stick out: Teryl Austin (Steelers), Jim Leonhard (Wisconsin), Jerod Mayo (Patriots), Kris Richard (Saints).

Jason La Confora of CBS is saying Mike Pettine is a name he’s hearing. Mike was in Buffalo when I was there and had a ton of respect. His last two defenses in Green Bay were ninth and 13th in scoring. Packers fans in the mentions were not so impressed by his work.

Jason La Canfora @JasonLaCanfora

With Kevin O'Connell going to Vikings, I keep hearing Mike Pettine as the likely DC there.

@theephillg Did Son of Bum, Wade Phillips, just hint at being D coordinator?? Does he have KOC or KAM ties?

Yes, Wade seemed to be applying for the Vikings’ defensive coordinator position on Twitter. Wade is also 74 years old. Not that I’m saying he can’t do it. Wade’s defense was still really good the last time he was the Rams’ DC. I just wonder if they want someone a little younger who can be here over a number of years. Much respect to Wade for still wanting to grind.

@MySKOLReport do you think Wade is saying Wes Phillips is coming with Kevin O'Connell to Minnesota

I’m not sure. Wes Phillips, Wade Phillips’ son, is on the Rams staff as the passing game coordinator and tight ends coach. Maybe he’s an option for QB coach?

@Seth_Keymon Initial reaction: Do you think the Vikings or Bears will be happier in 3 seasons with their GM/HC decisions?

Great question. That really comes down to Justin Fields and whoever the Vikings pick at QB, right? I saw that the Bears want to transition to a Shanahan-style system for Fields, which could be scary if he has an OC that’s giving him easy reads and rolling him out. The Bears are one year ahead of the Vikings with the whole rookie QB thing (if the Vikings move on from Cousins), so they might be able to stack talent around Fields before the Vikings are ready to really contend. The fact that both teams overhauled at the same time makes it really interesting to track.

@dreski83 Seriously starting to wonder... has ANYONE heard or seen Cousins lately?!

I got a few messages about me pointing out on the podcast how many days it’s been since Cousins spoke but it’s remarkable that a guy who spent four seasons with Zimmer and got paid a brinks truck full of money by Spielman wouldn’t so much as release an Instagram post with a comment about them getting fired or about the new GM/HC. That doesn’t exactly scream that he’s invested in this thing, does it? It’s also pretty telling about “accountability.” Usually franchise QBs put everything on their back, rather than disappearing when the team needs a leader.

@jrm531 QB market seems primed for FA. Think all the qbs on the move increases Cousin’s value? seems other teams don’t see the deficit that Commanders lol and Vikings do in Kirk, and once the star qbs are gone, there are still going to be a handful of teams thinking they are a “qb away”

The one to watch is Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s considered around the league to be similar in talent to Kirk and his contract situation isn’t all that different. It feels like Jimmy is likely to get traded before Kirk because John Lynch has known that he’s trading Jimmy since the day they drafted Trey Lance. But to your point, there’s five or six QBs on the market and a bunch of teams looking for a veteran. This game of chicken is going to be Kewsi Adofo-Mensah’s first real test if they want to move Cousins.

@thecsmm Do you think we should go with inside LB in the first round? With the highly likely departures of Anthony Barr and Nick Vigil. While star prospects like Nakobe Dean and Devin Lloyd will be on the board.

Definitely not. If Adofo-Mensah is all about positional value, he’s going to look at quarterbacks, edge rushers, cornerbacks and receivers in the first round. They should be hoping to develop the next partner for Eric Kendricks. It doesn’t look like that’s going to be Troy Dye but it might be Chazz Surratt. Draft other dudes in the middle-to-late rounds, get them in the game and go from there. It’s almost as batty as drafting a running back to take a middle linebacker in the first round these days.

@skiyouMeeko Give me your prediction for OC, DC, STC and OL coach

I don’t know how anybody would be able to give special teams or offensive line coach predictions. We have no idea what the team is looking for in those guys. I do think Zac Robinson has a legit chance at OC but aside from that, your guess is as good as mine.

@orangesuds What’s the EPA grade of your Diet Dr Pepper intake these days?

During a GM and coaching search, Diet Dr. Pepper consumption has risen 40%. Gotta have the energy to blast out reaction pieces and emergency podcasts. Dr. P gives me life.

@terryrheault How can the leadership possibly believe that O'Connell is a better choice than Harbaugh? Harbaugh is a proven winner in the NFL and a quarterback whisperer. This is a colossal mistake by the new regime that they should fix right now.

Huh. Well, first, nobody is a quarterback whisperer. That’s not a real thing. We all agree that Mike Zimmer is the farthest thing from a QB whisperer, right? How about this stat: From 2014-2021, the Vikings had the sixth best QB rating in the NFL. The only teams that are higher were quarterbacked by Brees, Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady. The Vikings are also 28th in attempts during that span because the Vikings tried to only throw when it was advantageous to throw. That’s what Harbaugh did in SF. They were third in rushing yards and 30th in passing yards during his time there but his QBs had good efficiency numbers. Call it the Tannehill Conundrum. Also, if the QB is bad, nobody has an answer. There’s no magic potion.

That really doesn’t address your question though. Here’s what I think: They made the right call. Harbaugh winning many years ago doesn’t guarantee he’d do it again here. Picking someone who’s working in lockstep with the GM in the same way as a Lynch-Shanahan, Beane-McDermott or Stefanski-Berry situation is the way to go, not having a head coach who ends up running the entire team when some pragmatic decisions need to be made and a clear path needs to be forged.

I’m surprised at the number of people who are mad their team hired the OC in the Super Bowl.

@bulldogs13tv Which players do you think have a decent chance to get moved that would shock the fan base.

As far as players who would make sense to move and would shock fans, the list is pretty much Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Dalvin Cook. Maybe Adam Thielen gets included here too but that one would surprise me somewhat. Eric Kendricks getting moved would really be stunning. Hunter is easily the one with the highest chance to go because of the way his contract is structured. Moving any of the others would be a pretty bold and ruthless start for Adofo-Mensah.

@NevarezLuiz So O'Connell is for sure the guy? Seems like they're in a position where there's enough time between now and the Super Bowl to not get their guy.

Yeah, he’s taking the job.

@au_mschmidt If they aren’t primarily focused on 2022 results, who of Smith, Kendricks, Cook, and Thielen has realistic trade value (2nd thru 4th). Can’t seem them going full tear down but redistributing cap to premium positions might be in play.

Broken Julio Jones was traded for a second-round pick last year. It feels like if Thielen was out on the market, that’s about what he’d get. I’m not sure about Cook. Most teams have figured out the whole expensive running back thing and Dave Gettleman didn’t get hired anywhere, so that’s a tougher sell. With Smith’s age and contract, he’s probably a second round type trade value. Kendricks you’d be asking for a first. That’s an All-Pro in his prime. I don’t think they could justify shipping him out without getting amazing value from a team that’s in Super Bowl Mode (a la Kansas City).

@rinkygolf Now that we know O’Connell will be the new HC, is he more likely to change personnel or adjust scheme to fit current personnel? Would it be more likely we see a year of evaluation before making personnel changes are made offensively?

One thing about hiring O’Connell is that players who are staples like Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Brian O’Neill, Irv Smith Jr. won’t have to undergo some crazy offensive change. The McVay style isn’t a far cry from the base of a Kubiak offense. Certainly there will be details that are changed about how certain routes work and what type of lingo they use but there are lots of similarities. To your point, every coach should be changing the offense all the time to fit personnel. What Los Angeles has done with Cooper Kupp’s ability to get open 1-on-1 is absolutely incredible. There’s a guy in Minnesota who could benefit from that type of treatment. I do think that having some time to get his feet wet allows for O’Connell to really see what works with players who will be a part of the future i.e. Kene Nwangwu, KJ Osborn, Ihmir Smith-Marsette etc.

@LudPLud Juju Smith-Schuster might be a good wr2 addition? Just a thought

They could use another receiver, especially if Thielen is moved. I’m not sure they have to be in a rush to sign expensive veteran receivers unless I’m a billion percent wrong about them taking the longer road to being a contender. If there’s some world where O’Connell is going to go all-in on Cousins and try to win it all in 2022, I suppose they’d look to add another quality veteran receiver. Where they’d get the cap space to do that, I don’t know.

@kyleshaner 6% of Americans think they could beat a grizzly bear in a fight. In your estimation, what percentage of NFL players, coaches and owners think they could beat a grizzly in a fight?

Does Brock Lesner count as an NFL player? (He was in camp with the Vikings once upon a time, so maybe him). There’s probably a handful of players who are so big and strong they might have a fighting chance but Google informs me that Grizzly bears are eight feet tall. If the bear knows it’s in a fight, it’s crushing everyone. I bet you could find 6% of people who think anything. About a year ago there was a bunch of dudes on Twitter claiming they could win a point against Serena Williams. Uhhhkay.

@GriffRobMike How quickly will we find out their plans in regards to the QB position? At least in respects to the trade/keep/extend Kirk decision

Within the next three or four weeks. By this time last year, Matthew Stafford was already (unofficially) a Los Angeles Ram. By February 18, 2021, Carson Wentz was a Colt. Teams don’t want to sit on their hands with the quarterback position. If the Vikings are moving Kirk, they’ll do it soon and start preparing to draft a QB. If he’s getting extended, that will have to come quick, too. The last time they extended him, it happened on the first day of free agency. And then Rick Spielman explained that they had to do it in order to sign Michael Pierce.

@RobDN1 Malik Willis, talk me out of the Vikings drafting him

No, good sir, I will not talk you out of the Vikings drafting him. I don’t know better than anyone else about which one of these potential first-round quarterbacks is going to be the best of the group but Willis seems to have the most impressive skills. The folks who are down in Mobile, Alabama, covering the Senior Bowl seem to be raving about what he’s shown in practices there. Your best bet is probably picking the dude with the best physical gifts.

@RalphVixCPA Are you relieved you didnt lose me as a listener when you heard the news Harbaugh wasnt hired?

I’m only relieved from the standpoint that it would have been a constant fight within the fans, the same way Kirk Cousins has been. Harbaugh wasn’t even the coach yet and there were fans attacking other fans nonstop on my Twitter feed. It gets pretty tiresome.

@1JasonLutz With the decision to go with O’Connell over Harbaugh, doesn’t this increase the odds that the Vikings will be looking to trade Cousins because O’Connell probably won’t have the win now outlook that Harbaugh probably would have had?

I can’t completely put a finger on whether it changes the odds or not. It does feel like the chances were higher that Harbaugh would have wanted to stay with Cousins and try to win right away. At the same time, you could see Harbaugh thinking he knew which QB in college football that he wanted. If I had to say one way or the other, I’d guess the decision has been made by the GM and ownership and whatever coach they were going to hire had to be on board.

@jhallada316 What is meant when it's said that Harbaugh didn't prepare for the interview like he was a candidate? Would he have come unprepared to discuss personnel, or were the Wilfs put off by reports that he'd said goodbyes?

The way I understand it is that Harbaugh really, really wanted this job so his side clearly put a bunch of stuff out there to Michigan media that made it look like he was THE guy but that was clearly not the case. The Vikings didn’t fly to L.A. to interview O’Connell and Raheem Morris for their health. It’s certainly possible that some people weren’t comfortable with everything Harbaugh wanted and they couldn’t get on the same page, so they went with O’Connell. I’m not sure what to make of all the other buzz.

@paul_pj5 Florio believes the Vikings are dysfunctional because they chose O’Connell over harbaugh. Do you see it as the Vikings being dysfunctional and the wilfs making the choice over what KAM wanted?

I’ll give it to Florio, he knows how to get clicks. If the Wilfs made the call and not Adofo-Mensah — which I don’t know to be true — I’m not sure how you could ask owners of a team to give out a long term contract and gargantuan amount of money to somebody they don’t want to hire. Dysfunctional would be forcing a coach on a GM. Based on Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell’s backgrounds, it doesn’t look like that’s the case.

Also, is the Vikings’ new coach in the Super Bowl next week or am I taking crazy pills? It’s dysfunctional to hire the offensive coordinator of the team in the Super Bowl?

Thomas via email: Matthew, What is the future of the fullback position (and C J Ham) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, assuming he deploys the system now used by the Rams?

McVay’s offense hasn’t used a fullback. That doesn’t mean O’Connell will absolutely be against it. This might make a few of you laugh at me because Cousins checks down to Ham too often but CJ can be a legit weapon. When you have someone who can line up all over the field and either run, catch or block, it gives you options. Pat Shurmur used him really smartly, so did Kevin Stefanski. O’Connell shouldn’t dismiss Ham just because he wants more 11 personnel.

@tua76466_g %chance Kirk gets traded now with KOC?

I’ll go 70% he’s traded, 30% he stays.

David via email: I just saw John Elway’s statement about the Flores case. If you were Elway or Ross, wouldn’t you sue Flores for defamation if Flores was actually wrong?

Brian Flores isn’t blowing up his entire career for giggles. Everybody knows he’s right about what’s been going on for years in the NFL. You can’t tell me that only one black man is qualified to be a head coach. This has been an issue for far too long and we’ve made zero progress. Someone was bound to say “enough.”

@TheRealSir_D What do you see the Vikings doing at DC? Do they give the reigns to Coach Pat or bring in someone else

O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah are likely to have their own vision of what they want at defensive coordinator. It’s possible that the Wilfs would like Andre Patterson to stay but more likely they’ll want to clear out all the Zimmer guys and start fresh. You still want someone experienced to pair with an inexperienced head coach. If it does turn out to be Mike Pettine, as La Confora is reporting, he has previous head coaching experience in Cleveland.

@MikeHutton22 With the long term QB situation unknown, it seems that Vikes are wasting Jeffersons peak value on his rookie deal. What kind of a package would it take a team to pry away JJ and would there be an argument that using those assets to get your QB of the future would be worth it?

I wouldn’t trade Jefferson for anything short of one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. Even if they aren’t likely to win the Super Bowl next year, there isn’t a very compelling argument to throw away a 22-year-old superstar. That’s like the old Chapelle skit, “when keeping it real goes wrong.” When rebuilding goes wrong, you trade away a franchise player for the next 10 years. Jefferson is a great argument to draft a quarterback and turn it around quick. What are the young QB’s chances if he has Jefferson? It doesn’t take that long to rebuild. By Jefferson’s fourth year, they should be aiming to compete for a Super Bowl. Then you’ve got the fifth-year option year before having to face a massive contract, which won’t yet be when the next QB needs to get paid. You can have expensive players, they just have to be really good and at the most valuable positions. Jefferson is both of those things.

@shormle Is there just a verbal agreement with O’Connell at this point or has a contract been signed?

I don’t believe he can sign the contract until after the Super Bowl.

@IAmKunji What are the chances for coach Patterson to be retained as the DC? Would love to keep him around

I’d be very surprised. Andre is very well respected by everyone in the organization but they’ve had one of the worst defenses in the league the last two years.

@spardisjx I’m sure you’ve been asked this question already Coller, but now that KOC is going to be the new HC what do you think he’s going to want to do with Kirk Cousins?

I like getting similar questions so I can try to think of different angles to answer. How about this: One thing to keep in mind is that with so many quarterbacks available via trade, the free agent quarterbacks should be pretty reasonably priced. How much would it take to get Marcus Mariota? In 2016, Mariota led the 14th ranked offense in points and No. 3 on third downs. In 2017 he graded by PFF as the 12th best QB. It’s amazing the guy wasn’t a starting quarterback somewhere last year. He’d be a really good bridge option to keep trying to win and develop the next guy at a decent price. That seems like a better option than pouring $35 million per year into a Cousins extension.

@Ponysolder6969 was this whole thing about getting a young agreeable guy in who could be molded (Yes man) vs Harbaugh who would possibly be confrontational and problematic over time? Maybe I’m simplifying this but that’s the only thing that really makes sense. I hope KOC proves me wrong but this sounds disastrous.

That’s not the only thing that makes sense. When you turn on your TV on Super Bowl Sunday, you will see Kevin O’Connell on the sideline coaching the quarterback who had the third most passing yards and third best yards per attempt this year. People are making it out to seem like they hired the Jaguars’ water boy here. The Wilfs strongly said they want a GM and HC who are working in conjunction. That’s what they’re trying to get out of Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell. If you hire Harbaugh, it’s Harbaugh’s team, no matter who has “roster control.”