Friday mailbag: Panic meters, corner questions and second guesses

It may be Friday but clearly Vikings fans haven't gotten past last Sunday yet

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Happy Friday everyone. There is a football game again on Sunday so it’s a good day. But there are still a lot of questions after what happened last week so let’s dive right in…

@vikesfan1930 At what point can we start to panic/coaches to be fired ?/ move on to 2021? I don't see 4-12, but 6-10, would Zimmer/Rick lose their jobs ?

Packers losses really do something different to Vikings fans than any other team, huh.

I wouldn’t tell you that last week pointed to a whole lotta good things for this team this year but talking about the jobs of two people who just signed multi-year extensions during training camp is leaning pretty heavy toward the overreaction side. In 2015 they got killed in Week 1 and won the division. In 2016 they went 5-0 and missed the playoffs. I don’t think we’re anywhere close to talking about this team being in the bottom of the NFC. Another loss or two, maybe.

But since Purple Insider welcomes overreactions, I’ll take a shot at it anyway: If they go 6-10 Zimmer and Spielman very, very likely keep their jobs. Ownership has to understand that this is a transition year and expectations should be higher for 2021.

With that said, even the 8-8 or 8-7-1 seasons have included a lot of drama with this team. Is it possible a bad season really blows up within the building? Yes. There was even tension last year and they were good.

But I’m nowhere close to coaching search columns. Let’s see some more football first.

@CoachE_8 Kline and Snacks. Why not? Cut Pat and Shamar. Neither is needed long term. Add those two on one year vet min deals. How are we not better? Unless they want more money of course.

I’m not sure Josh Kline will play again in the NFL. He wasn’t great last year and then got hurt several times. I haven’t heard of him having any visits and the circumstances around his release were foggy. I also don’t know that Snacks Harrison is going to play again. Sounds like some teams asked about him but nobody agreed to a deal with him. Snacks had a tough year in 2019 and never really pressured the QB when he was at his best — that’s the real area they need to improve.

Stephen isn’t really the issue with the D-line. You can survive a nose tackle that doesn’t get after the quarterback if other players can penetrate the O-line. But with few pressures created from the D-ends or three-technique, they were in tough against the Packers. That has to improve fast but I’m not sure where that comes from aside from Yannick Ngakoue getting into shape and Armon Watts potentially stepping up.

The Vikings clearly didn’t want to go the route of veteran depth players aside from signing George Iloka and they also didn’t have the cash to do it with the Ngakoue trade and Dalvin Cook extension.

The issue with not having those vet minimum deals is that if one guy goes down, the dominos fall. That’s what we’ve seen with Hunter being out.

@jvangelder When would be an appropriate time to start panicking about the defense

If they can survive the first quarter of the season without going 1-3 or 0-4 because of the defense, that will be a victory and then there’s a chance to get better over the middle weeks of the season.

You could see a situation where the corners improve, Mike Zimmer solves some schematic things, Hunter and Ngakoue get hot and then all of the sudden the defense is decent-to-good. But that doesn’t appear it’s going to happen until they get Hunter back.

What they really need is to have one or two games in which the offense bails them out and gives the defense time to get its feet underneath them. The Colts’ defense offers a decent opportunity to do that.

@theonlyhus How did cornerback play last week compare to Waynes/Rhodes of last year? Feel like they got carved in a similar way, just no pass rush last week hurt more.

Last week was much worse than last year. Rhodes was one of the worst statistical corners in the NFL last year but Waynes wasn’t and Mackensie Alexander was a top half of the league nickel corner. Waynes allowed 7.5 yards per attempt into his coverage and a 105.6 rating against and Alexander in 2019 a 90.2 rating on 65 attempts.

Those numbers aren’t awe-inspiring but Dantzler/Hill/Hughes allowed 19-for-23 passes for 249 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a QB rating of 151.4.

The other thing is: Waynes/Rhodes/Alexander were terrific tacklers. That wasn’t the case for the Vikings’ corners in Week 1.

@JMike5490 Here is a take that borders on conspiracy theory. What if Joe Woods met with Aaron Rodgers and gave him all of Zimmer’s tells? What if Xavier does the same this week with Phillip Rivers? Thoughts?

Are we really sure it wasn’t Deep Throat or the man on the grassy knoll?

Players and coaches change locations all the time. Here’s the reality of the NFL: Most teams already know what the other team is going to do. They know the tendencies and even some of the other team’s signals (without Patriots-esque cheating). It’s all about whether you can stop it. Frank Reich has been in the league with Zimmer around for a long time. He knows what to expect and vice versa.

The few tweaks and wrinkles from week to week are usually the difference. They already know how Zimmer is going to play them.

@BaseballNorm my dad insists if the crowd was there Sunday Vikings would have won due to Packers not being able to audible and call out adjustments...I disagree and said no chance we would have won that game, they could have named their score as they dominated. Who is right?

Would they have been better? Yes. Rodgers’s history in US Bank Stadium vs. Lambeau suggests that. Would they have won? Probably not. Being able to adjust to the pressures helps and having everyone on the same page with the snap count is a big deal. But I don’t see it changing the bottom line, which is that the corners couldn’t stop anything. Maybe they don’t give up 500-plus. But they showed no signs of being able to slow down Adams or Rodgers.

Even though I’m on your side, make sure you appreciate the fact you and your dad have debates over football. It’s a great thing.

@GBeckTV Can we get a pie chart of who you think the best Vikings corner will be this year?

Ask for a pie chart and get a pie chart, that’s the rules.

Yes, that’s supposed to say Terence Newman in the top left. You never know, right? We could have a Kris Boyd appearance too.

Even though Hughes had a rough time last week, I’m not ready to call him a bust. I think both rookies have an even shot at it. Hill didn’t have any excuse for his showing Sunday. That was the most concerning of the bunch.

@mikekerrane How encouraged should we be with Bradbury’s performance in Week 1? 77.6 pass blocking grade, but a weird game with few offensive plays and the Packers D playing prevent

Maybe only a handful of those were against Kenny Clark before he got hurt so I can’t make anything of it. If he had been rocked, it would be a worrisome sign but handling a backup on a lot of four-man rushes where he can just help the guards or get help doesn’t tell us much. Against DeForest Buckner, we’ll have a better idea.

One area you have to feel for Bradbury is that he’s going to have a new guard next to him with Elflein out. Since coming into the league he’s played with Elflein, Dozier and Kline and next week it will probably be Dru Samia. Not exactly Will Shields and Randall McDaniel giving him a hand.

@mrpredictable1 Does the offense have enough to make up for the defensive regression?

Depends on your definition of “enough.” If you mean: Can they still make the playoffs with a bad defense if the offense operates similarly to last year? Oh yes they can. In 2016 Kirk Cousins went 9-7 with a defense that finished fifth worst in yards allowed. I’m certain there will be great games for Cousins and the offense and we see them win a handful of shootouts.

Can they carry the Vikings to an NFC Championship or Super Bowl? No. For that to happen, the defense has to be great.

We have seen teams have impressive turnarounds on defense after slow starts. I don’t think we can really know what their defense will be until Hunter plays.

@CoreyHermanson On the broadcast it seemed like Aaron Rodgers was getting multiple snaps with 0 seconds on the play clock. Do you think its a sync thing w/ broadcast? Or is it hitting 0 and its the officials judgement call whether to blow the whistle?

My friend Eric, a math PhD, will appreciate this. He asked me the same question awhile back and when I responded that the 0 shows when it’s at 0.5 etc., he explained it this way:

“The normal clock starts at 15:00 but takes one second before it shows 14:59.  So that suggests that time, for example, 13:46 means there is between 13:46 and 13:45 left.  So when the clock hits 0, it really means that there is no time left.”

So they should be throwing the flags when it hits zero. My guess is that just like pass interference, the refs know if they call it too much people will complain so they give an extra beat to let the offense have a chance to get the play off. Sorta typical of all NFL rules.

@theonlyhus I’ve been a HUGE Cousins defender the past 3 years. I think he gets unfairly criticized…. Saying all that, the way this team is constructed, and the philosophy of Zimmer, it truly makes NO sense to spend 30m a year on a Qb. If the goal is running and defense why not go cheaper route.

As they said in Tommy Boy: The guarantee is on the box. Cousins guarantees you a very predictable level of quarterback play that allows your team to be competitive each year and leaves the onus on the rest of the team’s strength to determine the outcome.

If you move on from Cousins and draft someone you might end up with Lamar Jackson or you might end up with Josh Rosen. Do people like Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman want to put their careers on the back of a rookie QB? Probably not.

They want to have a great run game but they’re aware quarterback play is going to determine the ultimate outcome of the season.

Does that make his extension the right move with a team that’s in transition? Maybe not — though we probably won’t be able to truly judge the extension until after 2021.

@RobDN1 Donato Peko on a one year deal at NT?

Pass. At this point he’s not bringing anything more than Stephen.

@SamRoot43

Glad that we got another Venn diagram this week. I’ll go 20% Rhodes gives up TD and five-plus receptions, 40% Dalvin gets 130-plus and 40% chance of both.

They’re really going to want to get Dalvin going after throwing so much last week and Rhodes didn’t look good in Week 1 for the Colts.

@rufiox3 Is Ngakoue a one trick pony and is the league catching on? (He‘s notoriously known for chop/swim move)

I might end up being on repeat here but… it’s one game. He’s been one of the most successful rushers over the last four seasons and had 51 pressures last year. His game Sunday was a rarity. It’s only the third time since 2017 he had either one or zero pressures.

It’s going to take him a few games to get fully ramped up. There are tons of pass rushers who only have a couple moves (see Jason Taylor’s long-arm) and make it work year in and year out.

@TigerTige How would you grade our rookies based on individual Week 1 performances?

Not good. I’ll go with a D. We only saw Jefferson get targeted three times and that was mostly in garbage time, Ezra Cleveland wasn’t even active, Jeff Gladney played nine snaps and Cam Dantzler didn’t force a single incompletion.

This is the issue with relying on rookies to step in and play major roles: You have no idea what you’re getting until they’re already out there. We might see huge gains going forward, we might not.

@KyeBaxter The Colts can't make the Vikings look this bad again right? Right? If they do, are we looking at tank for Trevor territory?

If the Colts put up big numbers on the Vikings and win the game, it’s not even remotely close to Tank for Trevor territory. And even if they go 0-4, what are they supposed to do to tank? Trade Anthony Barr or Kyle Rudolph? They’re already playing young players. There’s really no tanking with this team unless it was Week 17 and they were one loss away from the No. 1 overall pick, then you’d make the case for starting Nate Stanley.

But this team is very likely not going to win fewer than six or seven games even in the worst case. We’re acting like they’ll play the same way they did against Green Bay every week. They’ve basically never had 18 minutes of ball control before so I can pretty strongly say that it won’t be that way week after week. I wouldn’t make a huge change in expected W-L record from the schedule release date just because of the Green Bay loss.

@ATKing53632390 Is Brady washed? He's washed, right?

I’ll believe he’s washed when he’s wearing a suit in the FOX or CBS booth.

@RealBHogenson Broadcasters during the Lovie Smith era in Chicago would always say "they practice stripping the ball". My friends and I still laugh about it. What's your favorite "factoid" that broadcasters ran into the ground, other than Adrian Peterson's strong handshake?

My two favorites are Adam Thielen being from Mankato and getting a $500 scholarship or whatever and Ryan Fitzpatrick wearing his wedding ring while he’s playing/being from Harvard.

As if anybody on earth doesn’t know Adam Thielen wasn’t a high draft pick or that Fitzpatrick is from Harvard. But even funnier is the mentions of Fitzpatrick being a smart quarterback as he makes super bad decisions or Thielen being called “not the most athletic receiver” as he makes acrobatic catches.

@youvikethat1 With Hughes and Hill playing so poorly, any chance Gladney and Dantzler are the starting outside CBs by the end of the year?

Sure there’s a chance. The guy with the shortest leash has to be Hill. They’ve invested a lot in Hughes and they know that Gladney and Dantzler have upside. If Hill struggles like he did against the Packers on a weekly basis, they’ll have their answer as to whether he can play.

That’s generally how it is for the Vikings and evaluating players. You get a couple years where you’re “young” and then it’s time to produce. Hughes will get some patience because of his past health but it’s time to produce for Hill.

@TheWiscoDave At what point do we admit Mike Hughes is a problem? Unfortunately it's hard not to see a lot of Josh Robinson in his game. Frequently in position but unable to make the play. His production simply doesn't warrant amt of playing time or level of support he gets from organization.

Think about it this way: At the same point in Trae Waynes’s career, he was finally just getting to start full time. Same with Mackensie Alexander, who everyone thought was horrible after two years.

The Packers game was extremely bad but his play last year wasn’t terrible. I’m not sure what “production” we’re talking about because the guy just had his 800th career play the other day — that’s about 3/4 of a season.

I’m also not sure what we’re talking about with “level of support.” He’s a first-round pick, did you expect them to cut him after Sunday? He has been injured and they’re finding out this year what they have in him before they have to make a decision on a fifth-year option. I think we’re a long ways away from having the book be written on Hughes.

@akalina08 Biggest mismatch Sunday: Thielen vs Rhodes, Stephen vs Nelson, Buckner vs Elflein or other?

I don’t think we’ll exactly see a Thielen-Rhodes matchup because the Colts play more zone coverage. You may see them matched up occasionally but it’s not really a shutdown situation. Thielen vs. the Colts secondary overall is absolutely a big advantage for the Vikings.

I also think Stephen can probably do his job OK versus Nelson. It’s Jaleel Johnson who might be in trouble. Remember, Stephen played 30% of snaps on the 2017 team in a run-stopping role and was solid. Johnson has barely played and hasn’t been an impact player when he’s been in.

But alas, Bucker vs. the interior of the Vikings’ OL is the biggest mismatch. He’s a superstar. He demolished them in 2018 with SF and now that Elflein’s out they might struggle worse in the run game. At least Elflein is good as a run blocker. We don’t know if Samia can play.

@KrisKUSTRADIO Why are some coaches horrible with time management? What is the impact on success when the duties are handed off to a specialist? What do analytics say that good and bad time management plays a role? Ie. Shumur called pass plays when up by 1 in 4th, Vic not calling TOs last drive

I think coaches are bad at it because they have so many things going on at once and because they are trying to copycat what past coaches of theirs did in certain situations rather than just going with the odds — and many of them don’t know the odds.

Though I’d say that’s clearly changing. Mike McCarthy made the right fourth-and-3 play the other night and got ripped for it but the fact he did it showed he’s made progress since Green Bay. Teams are going for it more on fourth down and making the right two-point decisions much more often.

I often don’t even think of it as analytics, rather simple logic. Like the Rams, who have a person assigned to these decisions, punting on fourth-and-1 when they could end the game with a first down. You need a single yard to end the game versus you need to hold a very good quarterback from driving for a touchdown. I’d choose the one yard every time.

But if you do what’s traditional, your fans, GM and owner are a lot less likely to question it. That always plays in.

Fangio and the timeouts was simply a matter of a guy being way in over his head as a head coach.

@pilhofer Obligatory offensive line question: I have not seen the PFF grades, but it looked to me like they played.. Ok. Which, if true, is a massive improvement. Can’t blame the safety on them, so one sack. Cousins seemed to have time. Cook had some decent runs. True, or wishful thinking?

I lean toward wishful thinking. It’s true that you can’t blame the loss on them but they were also in advantageous situations later in the game where they racked up a lot of those solid PFF scores. They’ll be tested by Buckner, Clowney and Watt the next few weeks, then we’ll really know.

Samia possibly playing (they could go with Collins) changes the intrigue on the O-line. They have a chance to be better there and if Bradbury improves you might see something like the 17th best O-line in the league. That’s good enough to win with.

@AdamBojak How can the NFL and all its teams seriously not have a horizontal policy on fans in stadiums? How are they allowing every team to act differently, which can seriously affect competitive advantage?

It’s very odd to see the NFL totally bail on caring about competitive advantage. If the Texans do end up with 15,000 fans, that’s an NHL game’s worth. That’s a fairly legit crowd. Way different from the Vikings playing with white noise in the background.

It’s clear the Vikings are trying hard not to say quite how annoyed they are but they have a right to be frustrated.

@benjackson0812 Is the colts defense good?? Minshew had a lot of success last week

I don’t think so. Houston and Buckner are game-wreckers and Leonard is very good but there’s a ton of gaps in talent. Their secondary looks pretty rough, which means that Cousins could be in for a big day. He usually abuses teams that have bad corners.

Minshew only threw 20 passes but he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. Guessing we see a lot of runs to the edges and play-actions deep this week. The Colts only had two players graded over 70 by PFF in the game. The door is open for the Vikings’ offense to go off.

@sabresjj My Dad is a Vikings fan as when he grew up in Canada that was the team he got on his TV. How long have you been a Vikings fan and how close were they winning it all with Brett Favre?

People watching football with their dads is the theme of this mailbag apparently. Tell your dad I’m sorry for the many heartbreaks I’m sure he’s gone through along the way.

I have no doubts that Brett Favre wins that Super Bowl if he gets there. No team in the NFL was stronger than the ‘09 Vikings with Favre at that level and the defense was full of monsters like the Williams Wall, Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield. Literally an interception and coin flip away.

I grew up in Buffalo, NY but past early childhood the Bills were so bad that I focused on the entire league more than just one team. I played Madden constantly, had a million football cards and had random team gear like a Barry Sanders jersey etc.

I’d put it this way with the Vikings: I’m a huge fan of the rollercoaster. I love every crazy thing that happens, every trade, the wild swings from game to game and I can’t get enough of studying how the organization works.

Most of all I’ve enjoyed the fans — and if you think I’m just saying that, you weren’t in Philadelphia for the NFC Championship when their fans were throwing full beers at people dressed in Purple. This mailbag is evidence that Vikings fans are engaged and interested in knowing more rather than just casually watching along. That’s cool. I’m a fan of that.

@SirChrisAlot11 Is Kubs washed? That pre snap motion chart seemed pretty damming

If y’all missed it, ESPN published a chart showing the Vikings used motion where the player was moving at the snap less than anyone in the NFL. Yes, they should do that more because it’s statistically shown to succeed. Is Gary Kubiak washed? Not based on that. They didn’t use it last year either.

Here’s the thing about play calling though: A lot went right for Stefanski last year. They hit on a bunch of big plays. Will that happen again? Hard to say, especially with some unproven receivers. If it doesn’t go as well, we can’t just assume he’s washed. He was such a big part of the process last year that I still think they have the right scheme.

@sachikojohnson The defense blitzed more than usual last Sunday. I know that the pass rush was not getting to Rodgers, but the results were not so good. That might have been Caper's influence, but do you see them learning from their experience or doubling down?

When they blitzed they did cause some issues for Rodgers. He only averaged 6.6 yards per attempt on the 20 blitzes by PFF’s numbers and early on they got him in the red zone.

I think the Packers overall had the right plan for those blitzes by using a lot of quick throws. Against the Colts I wonder if we see less blitzing and more coverage disguising against the spread offense stuff the Colts do.

@BIG_dannn I know it’s only been ONE game, BUT does it feel the Vikings missed out on getting cheap vets like Kelechi Osemele/Others to help Balance this roster especially during a unique season where experience is everything or it would have not mattered Vikings embraced a youth movement

Yes. Very much so. I’m sure there were scheme explanations and so forth and maybe some fear over whether he could stay healthy but to run out Dozier/Elflein without even having anyone else to compete with them was always bizarre to me.

@jhallada316 impacts of Pat Elflein to IR?

I know we bag on Elflein and he’s deserved criticism about his pass blocking but he really is good in run blocking and screens. Very good. If his replacement isn’t better in the pass game and is worse in run blocking, it’s going to be noticeable.

@fan57028 With Pat Elflein going on IR could you see a scenario in which Dru Samia comes in and never gives the job back? Or do you think we’ll be wish we had Elflein back?

Could go either way. If they really felt Samia was great, he would have been starting in the first place. The grass is rarely greener when it comes to the offensive line. But this is his shot. If Samia shows well, he’s the guy going forward.

@DanielVroman2 What is the biggest advantage the Vikings have vs. the Colts that they need to exploit in order to win this week?

I think the fact that Minshew completed 95% of his passes pretty much tells you that they can’t cover anybody. If Cousins doesn’t get strip sacked, he’s going to find open receivers all day against that defense.

@mnsportsguy0 What do you think the organization expects from the team in 2020 in terms of wins/playoff appearance etc.?

I wonder if it’s a bit of a sliding scale. Nothing they did in the offseason said rebuild. They traded for a star, they extended Cousins, they extended Zimmer/Spielman. They expect to make the playoffs and win there. As the season goes on it’s possible they have to recalibrate those expectations.

My dad has a piece of advice that nobody should make big life decisions around the holidays because you’re usually extra stressed. The same goes for making any big decisions during COVID.

@alstrain Which back from the 90s would be the most successful in today's NFL (you're not allowed to say Thurman Thomas)

I assume you mean player. Steve Young. Mobility, accuracy, guts, leadership and he wouldn’t have been beaten up so much these days. Other guys that come to mind are Eric Metcalf being the 90s Christian McCaffrey and Tim Brown as a route runner would have shredded with these quicker passing offenses.

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