Friday mailbag: OTAs and coach rankings

Vikings fans want to know if the vibes are good from OTAs and where Kevin O'Connell ranks among coaches

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! We’re in Phase Whatever of the offseason program so we have some stuff to talk about while you’re packing for the cabin this weekend, let’s dive in…

@eleysium Do you expect KOC and KAM extensions after this season?

Not after this year. If the reports were true from when Adofo-Mensah was hired that they got four-year deals, then extensions would most likely come after the 2024 season. Usually ownership wants to avoid having the GM/HC go into the final year of a contract but there’s very little incentive to do an extension before that unless they reach the Super Bowl. Zimmer and Spielman were about to go into the last season of their deals in 2020 when they gave them both three-year extensions. That’s why if we’re talking timelines, the 2024 season is going to be pretty important for them to either be ready to seriously compete or on their way.

@skoltheboat With the addition of Addison, any chance Nailor gets any additional looks in the offense or will he continue to be buried as WR4 at least and just another season as a special teamer?

I would never say there is no chance that he gets on the field because injuries are always possible and I’ve seen first-round receivers struggle before but in any world where Jefferson/Osborn/Addison are healthy we aren’t going to see Nailor all that often. He has speed and maybe some potential but if they thought he could be WR3, they wouldn’t have drafted a receiver in the first round.

@tony_trout Could signing Josh Oliver and drafting Jordan Addison indicate Vikings intend to trade Justin Jefferson this offseason for multiple first round picks to trade down to the #1 pick in 2024 and build a 12-personnel offense around a rookie QB?

It definitely does not indicate that they intend to trade Jefferson. They signed Oliver because they were a putrid running team last year and they need to find ways to improve on that and Hockenson isn’t a good run blocker in comparison to the massive Oliver. They drafted Addison because having a pair of super talented receivers is the best way to an elite passing game. Plus KJ Osborn is a free agent after this year. Even if Jefferson told them that there’s no way on Roger Goodell’s green turf that he’s ever signing an extension, they would still most likely keep him through his fifth-year option and presumably do the same franchise tag thing the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson. There could be a scenario where he is traded but it would be shocking if that happened before 2024. He has no leverage to force a trade now. And, bad news on the No. 1 pick: Whoever gets it isn’t trading it. They’re taking Caleb Williams.

@Russforallofus Any UDFA’s stand out in your opinion?

Really hard to say in OTAs. They only ran a handful of plays when practice was open to the media and I was standing on the side with the starters. In the past we have seen UDFA guys make a name for themselves in minicamp but normally it isn’t until a few weeks into training camp that we see them getting second or first-team reps and then we know something’s up.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Do you think the NFL will eventually let all 53 players on the roster dress for games? Seems it would be a good option considering the longer season and having more non-sunday games (although I don't know the financial implications)

Someone is going to have to explain to me why that isn’t already the case because I’ve never understood it. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens sooner than later or at least an increase of the allotted number of active players. I would guess that teams are looking at usage data and considering how they can get some star players more rest with all the non-Sunday games and the 17-game schedule and only one team getting a bye in the playoffs.

@kyleshaner Former Vikings including Joe Kapp, Ed Marinaro and Matthew Hatchette became actors. Which current Vikings could be actors?

First guys that come to mind are Alexander Mattison, Harrison Phillips, Brian O’Neill, KJ Osborn, Jordan Hicks and Cam Bynum. They’re all naturally good speakers with some personality.

Josh… The comments from Darrisaw about last year’s defense were frustrating. Obviously it’s hard to change a scheme wholesale mid-season. But can we draw any conclusions about KOC based on how he didn’t fire Donatell mid-season or at least make him adjust last year? Yes, they were winning — but everyone could see the D was hanging on by a thread each week until someone made a key stop. Do we just chalk it up to first-year coach inexperience?

That one is tough. In the moment it’s very difficult to fire a coach when your team is winning and making big plays on defense at the right times. On the other hand, ruthlessness is sometimes required. I remember the Ravens firing their OC in favor of Jim Caldwell en route to the Super Bowl in 2012. The signs were definitely there that Donatell’s system was not going to get turned around and he wasn’t implementing the changes that KOC talked about week after week. I’m not sure if that was a first-year thing or if there was belief they could get better or if ownership didn’t want to see the thing go too Zimmer-y or if they thought it was the players’ fault until the Giants playoff debacle. There’s a lot to that situation I would like to understand better and maybe we’ll learn more about it as time goes by.

Jeff… Is there really anything we can learn from Rookie mini camp / OTAs (outside of unfortunate injuries)? I mean I guess what I am trying to say is we can see negative stuff (injuries and young players who clearly are not getting it) but is there much positive to be gained outside of a coach talking up a young player (Asamoah got some love)?

We used to be able to get a nice first look at rookies in minicamp when Zimmer was out there throwing them into 11-on-11s but that doesn’t happen anymore. We can see who’s out there playing with the first stringers in OTAs. Getting a glimpse of a fully-recovered Lewis Cine was a pretty big plus. Minicamp has a little more intensity and sets the stage for everyone’s starting point in camp. It’s mostly just listening to how they talk about things and reading between the lines. Coaches talking up players this time of year can be hit or miss though.

Joe… It would be interesting to compare the 2020 dolphins defense to the 2023 Vikings defense. I’m wondering what kind of expectations we should Brian Flores given how quickly he was able to turn things around in 2020

It would be unfair to Flores to expect him to make this a really good defense right away. He has to spend a lot of this year finding out whether these guys are part of the future. When you’re as blitz-happy as Flores, the range of outcomes is wide. It could be like 2020 where they improve greatly or it could be like his 2019 Miami defense where they had lots of unproven players and struggled. Some of that might depend on whether Danielle Hunter is here or not.

Jeff… If you are Kwesi.... Do you call in Matt ‘Punt God’ Arazia for a tryout? I really hope we call in Luis Aguilar who hit 8! FGs in one game including 3 over 50 yards.

Don’t they already have Large Punt God in Ryan Wright? I agree on Aguilar, he should get a look in the NFL and there’s no reason not to have legit competition for Greg Joseph.

@jasonskog Any indication of a “vibe change” from last year since this is now the second camp with new coach and GM at the helm? Still all high energy and positivity? New DC altering anything?

I’m not sure I can really assess a vibe during OTAs. We are only there for one practice each week. Maybe you get a little sense in minicamp if something is off (see: 2018) but otherwise it isn’t until a few weeks into camp that you get a feeling for the team overall. The only noticeable thing is the comments about Flores’ defense. Players seem excited to play in a way that has them flying around.

@MrEducational What percent chance would you give Kirk having a ‘21 Stafford type season? Year two in the offense and first time as a Viking he has the same OC & play caller, plus the addition of Addison. I believe Staffords stat line was 4800 yds & 40 TDs

Could they play in a bunch of shootouts and see him increase his box score stats? I suppose that’s possible, though I don’t expect it from a team that has talked endlessly about wanting to run more/better and signed a blocking TE to a relatively large contract in the offseason. The Year 2 thing has been studied and found to be overrated. I’m not sure if Addison is going to be better than Thielen right away. That might take some time. Stafford also had multiple seasons like that in his past and the best pass blocking line in football that year. I guess May/June/July is the time that folks imagine Kirk being different but he’s usually the same exact guy every year.

@DonDeCourcy How have the RBs looked so far? Any of the non-Mattison backs standing out in any way?

Well, McBride didn’t practice when we were out there and nobody’s allowed to tackle anybody so it’s pretty hard to draw any conclusions. However, the backup RB battle will give us something to watch closely during preseason games.

@tjkill81 Do you think the new kickoff rule will cost Nwangwu his spot on the roster?

I don’t think so. The fair catch rule will help teams with bad returners get to the 25-yard line but teams with good returners like Nwangwu are still going to run back kicks and try to score.

@JesseCa88568330 Does Jalen Raegor appear to be developing a real passing relationship with Kirk?

That ship has sailed. If Reagor is on the team, Nailor is likely ahead of him on the depth chart. It’s very possible Powell beats him out for a spot on the 53 as a punt returner and occasional offensive weapon.

@dreski83 Has coach Brian Flores completely tipped his hand to what (players/coaches/team/etc) drew him to Minnesota, or has everything been the usual coach-speak standard???

I didn’t think there was a whole lotta questions about it. I’m sure he didn’t believe he was going to get a head coaching job so he took a position where he could improve the defense and work with a head coach that matched his philosophy. I’m also guessing they paid him decent money out of their wallets after Evero went to Carolina.

@airbear8785 How do the rookies look? Any surprises? Both good or bad.

McBride and Addison weren’t participating. I got a few glimpses of Blackmon and he seemed to move really fluidly but that’s about the best I can do at the moment. I didn’t watch any of Jaren Hall when he was working out on the field with the backups.

@BIG_dannn Rumors of cook having a change of heart and wanting to stay on a lesser contract and become a FA next year like Ekeler.. but is Cook still a fit for the Vikings if the money makes sense ? Or is it mattison and Co. time?

There’s no universe where it makes sense to keep Cook. I’m going to be completely baffled if they do. Mattison deserves his chance and there are three other draft picks on the roster who should battle it out for position rather than hoping to reverse the clock with an older, expensive player coming off his least effective season. That’s a very Spielman/Zimmer era thing to do and it cost them on numerous occasions.

@BIG_dannn Curious, where do you rank KOC in a second year of coaching? Curious if some people think he might’ve done even greater last year if he had Flores instead of Donatell last year

Ranking coaches 1-32 is a pretty silly exercise because, similar to ranking QBs, it implies that the gap between each spot is the same. If I were putting coaches into tiers, it would go something like:

Proven top-notch coaches: Belichick, Reid, Tomlin, Carroll, Pederson, Harbaugh, Payton, Shanahan, McVay

Pretty sure they are good: Sirianni, LaFleur, Taylor, McDermott, Reich, Vrabel

Need more information but trending well: O’Connell, Salah, Daboll, McDaniel, Campbell

Need more information but I’ve got some questions: Smith, Eberflus, Stefanski, Allen, Staley

Pretty sure they are bad: Rivera, Bowles, McDaniels

I have no idea what to do with Mike McCarthy tier: Mike McCarthy

Noobs: Gannon, Steichen, Ryans

I don’t think KOC is in a different category if Flores is the DC last year. They might have won the playoff game against the Giants but their fate was probably going to be the same the following week.

@Ragnarskingdom Probably already been asked but give me just a position group where we could see a SURPRISE cut.... (yes i know surprises are surprises for a reason)

Hm. Usually surprise cuts are either veterans who we assumed were going to make it when they signed/stayed or recent draft picks who we expected they would give more time. By those two standards, Jordan Hicks and Dean Lowry are really the only ones I can come up with. It’s hard to see, even as a surprise, them cutting anyone who was drafted last year.

@JTMNskol What does KOC need to do to as a play caller/HC to upgrade the offense to the next level?

One: Stop with the trick plays. Two: Get the play-action game going and find ways to reduce the sacks/hits. Getting a better feel for when/how to use the run game could help as well.

@headcoach21 If Jaron Hall could beat out Nick Mullens for a backup job is there potential there??

Super unlikely. Mullens has been around the offense for a year. Remember how hard it was for Kirk to grasp it in camp? It’s going to be really difficult for a rookie.

@markedpurple There's been talk of changing the types of PA we use (currently heavy on inside zone & stretch play fakes). IF we use more man/gap blocking schemes moving forward, how will that effect the types of play fakes we use, & can you explain the differences....

There’s so many different ways that play-action can be used that it’s impossible to say how they could tweak it based on this or that running scheme but generally wide zone play-actions are usually designed to hit on deep crossing routes and give the QB a chance to rollout to safety whereas the gap stuff is more vertical routes like posts, seams and go routes but the QB is a little more exposed. It’s really a game-to-game thing based on how the other team is playing. We did see them use it effectively at times (Patriots game comes to mind). The reason it didn’t work, I think, is because nobody was scared of their run game.

John… So who will surprise us as a successful next step in the secondary? booth? Cine?

I would hope that those guys taking a step wouldn’t be a big surprise considering where they were drafted. Studies by PFF a few years ago showed that it takes every position except running back some time to adapt to the NFL so I’m always willing to give everyone a clean slate heading into Year 2. Just think about how uncertain we were about Christian Darrisaw.

@blurapala Do they still have cap money they can spend? Will they or save for future?

I haven’t yet seen the exact details on how much money they kept in the Za’Darius Smith trade but they don’t have a ton to spend. If they cut Cook, they will have enough cap space to be able to bring in a free agent or two if they want. If they don’t use it, it can be carried over toward the future, which is probably a good idea at this point.

@JoeyA226 I don’t think anyone is talking enough about how average our Dline is. Nice players like Phillips, Tonga, and Lowry. But if they’re serious about 2023, what do you think about Shelby Harris?

Yeah, no disagreement here. There is no threat to consistently rush the quarterback on the interior. I’ve always thought Shelby Harris was a good player. I guess it comes down to whether they want to see guys they’ve drafted fight for rotational spots like Esezi Otomewo or Jaquelin Roy rather than getting another older guy. I’d respect if they wanted to leave it up to a competition.

@scapar100 In honor of HBO Max become Max. You have to create a Vikings centric streaming service. What are the titles and premise of your first three original series, at least one must be fiction?

Fiction is called: Winning the Super Bowl.

I’m sorry, that was uncalled for but too easy.

You could do an original series on Vikings fans called Behind the Horns where they tell their stories of rooting for this team and where they were for the highs and lows. How about a show that tries to understand why Justin Jefferson is so good — like, the science behind it, his background and what led him to being the best receiver in the league.

@KyeBaxter I saw this question elsewhere this week. Who you got...Thielen or Harvin?

Thielen easily had the better Viking career but I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Harvin is one of the most dynamic and exciting players to ever play in the NFL. In Harvin’s first three seasons, only two players had more all-purpose yards. His 2011 season was absolutely bonkers. He had 87 catches for 967 yards, 52 runs for 345 yards and averaged 33 yards per kick return.

@rk2022 What's the difference between Booth Jr and Cine from 2022 and 2023. Neither were factors even before they were injured in 2022.

I’m not sure yet. They are both healthy right now and have a chance to improve greatly this year. II can’t begin to guess whether they will or not but I’m not making any judgements until we see them in camp.

@Skol_Doc what are the top 3 destinations for dalvin cook once he inevitably moves on from the Vikings?

It’s hard to find three teams that desperately need a running back. I suppose Miami might just go the Kyle Shanahan route and get all the available running backs. I guess Buffalo could look at him. Maybe the Rams? Do the Bucs have a running back? Could we get a Week 1 revenge game?

---