Friday mailbag: On the brink of the future

The Vikings face Chicago and fans want to know what's going to happen next if they win or lose

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By Matthew Coller

Alright everybody, happy Friday the 13th. Nothing spooky could ever happen to the Vikings, right? Let’s dive into fans’ questions, which unsurprisingly are not focused much on the X’s and O’s of the matchup…

Jeff in Tokyo… your guess at chances Kirk Cousins is traded at the deadline?

I’m going to say 10%. There are a lot of moving parts. They probably have to lose to Chicago, find a trade partner, agree on a price tag, have the salary cap situation work for both teams and get him to agree to the trade. Not impossible but it’s much more likely that they just let it all play out and maybe at the end of the year they sit him i.e. Derek Carr last year so he doesn’t get injured. If they beat Chicago there is a decent chance they are 3-5 after before the deadline. I’d be surprised if they made a massive tear-down move at that point.

Andrew…

1.       there did seem to be a markedly different atmosphere around the facility, however it’s also much easier to be cheery on a 13 win team.  Do things seem to be drifting towards a Zimmeresque cloud hanging over everyone?

It doesn’t feel as tense but there is no comparing this situation to anything during the Zimmer era. From the time Blair Walsh missed wide left Zimmer’s teams were in Super Bowl or bust mode and every season was Armageddon. That naturally raises the temperature in the building with every loss. There was also way more drama that was out of his hands, whether it was the injuries to Bridgewater in ‘16 and Bradford in ‘17 or the Everson stuff in ‘18 and ‘21 and a dozen other things that went down along the way. KOC is always going to be way more on the positive side of things than Zimmer but this regime hasn’t really faced any adversity yet.

2.       if someone wants to take credit for something, they must be prepared to be blamed when that thing stops. I had material skepticism about it being possible to create “situational awareness” last year; we now know the answer. Has KOC shown any willingness to acknowledge that was all bullspit?

I do not think the start to this season proves that their focus on situational football was BS. There have certainly been some issues in big spots that have been costly though, like the non-spike and timeout/delay of game issues vs. KC. Here’s my theory: In his last three seasons Kirk Cousins has thrown 718 passes when losing and 381 when ahead. If you are losing 65% of the time then every week is going to come down to a fourth down, a timeout, a field goal, a final drive etc. Every single one of those becomes a referendum on whether your team is or isn’t clutch and your coach is or isn’t brilliant in game situations. If you don’t want to rely on situational mastery all the time then stop playing every game to the final moments.

The close games are such an illusion because you feel like your team is almost there but they truly are not. The reality is that this team is 21st in point differential since 2020. They are minus-61 and No. 1 Buffalo is plus-568.

Brian… Every time I watch Brock Purdy he reminds me of someone but I can't quite put my finger on it. A bit of Romo, a sprinkle of Mark Bulger, but I feel like I'm missing an obvious '90s-'00s comparable. Who is it?

I like right-handed Mark Brunell as a comp. The obvious one that seems insane might be Kurt Warner. If Warner was doing his Greatest Show on Turf thing now we would spend every week arguing whether he was actually good rather than enjoying the awesomeness of the story. Kurt didn’t have a monster arm but wasn’t a weakling. He wasn’t a playmaker but had pocket presence. The thing he did best was process, throw on time and find the right dudes who were wide freaking open. Purdy could also be something like Andy Dalton. From 2013 to 2015, Dalton went 31-13-1 with unreal teams and then the physical shortcomings got him when the team strength fell off. I’m not going to pretend I know whether he will fall off at some point or not.

David… Does it sound like Addison is going to play?

I’m assuming so. He has been limited both days in practice but there hasn’t been any hesitation from anyone talking about his role in the offense this week.

OldDrummer55….Have you seen steady improvement of Ed Ingram’s play?

It’s too early to say. He was very good against Kansas City. His PFF grades in pass blocking game by game this year go like this: 40.3, 63.4, 47.9, 61.2, 71.5. Last year he had seven games under 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. That doesn’t mean it’s good because he’s still 43rd of 62 guards in pass blocking. He has been doing better by run blocking but that was never really the issue, they just got slammed by the Bucs and Eagles’ terrific D-lines in the first two weeks. At this point they should just let him play and see if it comes along. We all know by now that OL is the toughest development curve so we have to wait and see if he continues to creep toward average of if he just had a few OK weeks after the Risner signing.

ThePurplePlague… What is your pie chart of these options happening before the trade deadline if the Vikes win on Sunday? (1) Players except Kirk are traded (2) Players including Kirk are traded (3) no one is traded (4) Vikes try to UPGRADE with a trade!

I’ll go with 50% option 3, 40% to option 2 and 5% each to No. 1 and 4.

Bradley P… I understand turnovers have killed this team but is that the only issue on offense? It’s odd that they supposedly have a top 10 OL and QB and the best WR and they’re middle of the pack. What’s your pie chart of blame for the offensive woes?

Turnovers are a massive part of the issues, for sure. There is no downplaying how much giving the ball away 11 times crushes scoring chances, especially when paired with the opposing team holding the ball longer than them in every game. They are 31st in average time of possession and 20th in total plays run. But they are only 10th in net yards per pass attempt and 13th in rushing yards per attempt. It’s hard to pie chart exactly because it’s something different every game. Sometimes blocking, sometimes lack of running game, sometimes drops, sometimes missing throws that were there. Has a familiar feel to an offense that has often seemed almost there to being really good but couldn’t quite do it.

Ben… Let’s say the Vikings are able to get a top QB in the draft. How quickly can they turn it around??

Because the hardest part of getting star offensive players is already done, it shouldn’t be that long if the QB is good. Most guys that click are there by Year 3 but there have been some examples of guys like Roethlisberger, Dak, Purdy etc. who inherited a good situation and thrived instantly.

Tim… Do you see any sure wins on the schedule? How ‘bout them Wild?

There’s no such thing with this team. Denver and Las Vegas are pretty putrid. By the time they get to those teams they will have needed to beat Chicago, Green Bay New Orleans and Atlanta and that might be a tough ask for a team that only held on against the Panthers.

Thomas… Has Mike Smith returned as outside linebackers/pass rush coach? Do you think his absence has reduced the effectiveness of the pass rush, or is it simply availability of Davenport and insufficient depth?

He has not returned yet. I don’t want to downplay Mike’s work because he has a great reputation as a coach but it’s pretty clearly personnel. They have been rolling out Wonnum/Jones for a few years and there’s never been a sign that either player could consistently beat offensive tackles.

Kyle… How will Justin Jefferson’s absence affect Jordan Addison’s development? Will it have a positive, negative or neutral effect?

Even if it doesn’t go perfectly I see it as a positive. Getting thrown into the deep end without JJ to make life easier is a good experience. I’m not sure there is much outside of injury that could throw him off in terms of development. He’s a very talented player.

Brian… What are your keys to the game? And by that I mean how do we pass the Bears in the race for the #2 pick?

We all know exactly how losses to the Bears at Soldier Field go. They struggle to get rolling offensively and then something ridiculous happens and that’s that. Is there a world where they win fewer games than the Bears? With Kirk that seems pretty unlikely. I guess ya never know.

Scott… Given that Justin Jefferson is on IR, is there a chance that the Vikings and his agent could reopen contract extension negotiations? It seems like a longshot to me, but I am curious...

I wouldn’t expect that they are going to suddenly kick extensions back into gear. It’s going to be next offseason.

Kelly… Will Justin Jefferson being out, Maybe help the offense in the long run? I mean getting Addison more looks and Tj more looks as well as Powell.

Only in the way that Addison can continue to grow. That probably would have happened anyway considering how he started the season. I respect that you are trying to find a silver lining in this.

Kelly… In your opinion, how far up the draft board do you think the vikings have to be to make a move up the draft to get there qb? I mean if they are 20th will they trade their draft to get in top ten, or you think they have to be closer to make a big trade up?

Right now there is no way to tell. We have no idea what the draft board is going to look like, which teams will be in the market for QBs and how many QBs are actually going to be first-rounders. Judging by recent history teams like the Bears and Chiefs have been able to move up from the later middle part of the draft to pick QBs and it usually takes the following year’s first-rounder and change.

Jason… If you had to choose one under the radar game, nothing like the immaculate reception, for people to go back and watch on YouTube, what would it be?

First one that comes to mind is the 1989 AFC Wild Card game between the Bills and Browns. The Browns win 34-30 in a game where Jim Kelly threw for 405 yards in the slop and Bernie Kosar had three touchdowns and Cleveland scored on a 52-yard TD, 44-yard TD and 90-yard kick return. Complete madness. Another is the ‘08 championship weekend games between the Cardinals and Eagles. Philly was down 24-6 and came back to take the lead then Warner led a go-ahead TD drive. Crazy game. There are so many games just as good as these, they are just two I’ve watched fairly recently.

Thomas… If you and Courtney devised misery indexes for the Vikes and Bears which franchise is in worst shape for the next few years?

Hard to know. You could see it working or busting for either depending on the QB situation. If Fields plays great and they still draft No. 1 because of Carolina and then trade down for another whole bevy of picks that could be a problem for the NFC North. If they draft Caleb Williams, that could also be a problem. But if the Vikings get a good QB prospect who drops in right away and then they use the Kirk money on the defense that could work too. Or both teams could completely fall on their faces with the QB situations. We are far from being decided whose new-ish regime has their team on the right path.

Dionte… With all the talk about the last 2 draft classes with kwesi can you compare them to the last few years of Rick Spielman drafts so people can understand how hard it is?

The strange thing about Rick’s drafting is that he picked Jefferson, O’Neill and Darrisaw in an act of completely bananas stupid luck. JJ and CD were projected way higher and fell in the Vikings’ lap and nobody knew BO was going to be this good, which tells you that it’s not just the luck of which players work out but also which players end up being available. Aside from those guys they didn’t land too many starters after 2015.

At his first Combine, I asked Kwesi about draft randomness. He acknowledged that it’s random but added that there are ways to swing the odds. So far we have a tiny, tiny sample size on whether any of that is working or not. The 2022 draft looks like a hot mess but could be viewed a little differently if Evans and Ingram are trending the right way by the end of the year and Addison is clearly a good player. We’re only talking 16 total players. Spielman picked 26 between 2020 and 2021. I know we all want to decide right now IS THE GM GOOD OR BAD. It’s just going to take time to see how a larger accumulation of decisions works out.

Unnamed Subscriber… Really enjoyed the pod with Austin Gayle. It made me think about technology in the game. Teams use tablets instead of photographs to look for tendencies/formations in game but coordinators still have to call plays within seconds. Coordinators still use laminated play sheets that have plays for different scenarios, which I’m sure is a result of their PFF/internal analysis during the week. 1) were you able to review any play sheets during your research for the book? 2) when do you think coordinators begin using tablets in-game instead of a sheet? Is that allowed per NFL rules?

I did not get an up-close look at a play sheet — though if you were following Twitter you saw Sean Payton’s sheet up close on the Amazon broadcast. Whoops! I’m sure the tablets are wonderful but the sheet will never malfunction so I’d be surprised if they ever went in that direction. As far as I know the tablets are only programmed to show the photos and nothing else for now. Possible that might change. In the NHL, their tablets have real-time data on them like player ice time. Wonder if that could happen soon for the NFL with snap counts. Thanks for listening to that pod!

Jeff…. Addison’s lack of size means he’s not the best choice for some of the contested catches that resulted in JJ taking big hits on routes inside the hashmarks. Addison also needs to be shielded from getting jammed at the line of scrimmage. How do you expect the offense to adapt to a new #1 receiver, who isn’t built to be put in the same spaces JJ was?

Oh, I don’t think I agree with that. He’s still learning how to fight through contact but I’ve never found size to be an absolute requirement to win contested catches or get off the line of scrimmage. That’s all about natural football talent and technique. Diggs and Terry McLaurin are contested catch beasts. McLaurin, Calvin Ridley and Ja’Marr Chase lead the NFL in snaps at outside receiver and they are all not big. I’ve seen Addison roast corners off the line this year and he’s played 75% of snaps on the outside. He’s definitely not built the same as JJ as far as the leaping ability but he can win on those double moves JJ runs. The defenses will be so much different than when JJ is playing that he won’t have to take on the true Jefferson role, just win his matchups and he will have a chance to succeed.