Friday mailbag: OK, who are they drafting?
Vikings fans are getting antsy to find out if the new regime will be different in the draft
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone. This is the last Friday mailbag before the draft, so let’s get right into it…
@roberttseaman Pie chart! What position do you think is most likely to be taken first by the Vikings in the draft? (Maybe it is #12, maybe we trade back, who knows!?) CB, WR, QB, ED?
I’ll go 40% corner, 30% pass rusher 25% receiver and 5% quarterback. Because it’s a new regime, I’m not feeling confident in figuring out which direction they’ll go. The way they have handled everything else this offseason makes it feel like it’ll be chalk and they’ll take the obvious defensive player but it keeps going through my mind that there’s a chance we’ll see the rebuilding part of “competitive rebuild” during the draft and that would be in the form of a receiver or QB.
Jordan via email: Listening to the podcast with Zach Hicks and the idea that Kirk and Matt Ryan have basically been similar the last few seasons. I need you to talk me into the hype that Matt Ryan has gotten other than his draft status out of Boston College. Being a Vikings fan I haven’t followed Ryan’s career super close, but the times I have watched him, it hasn’t felt like watching the other elite QBs the Vikings play against. Talk me into buying the hype of the career arc of Matt Ryan as a superior to the upper second tier of QBs (8-12), peaked higher than Kirk, but overall similar talents. What am I missing/not seeing in Ryan other than the playoff run in 2016?
I’m not really sure how to compare Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins because they’re so different. Ryan was a top draft pick who instantly turned around a franchise that was in complete and utter misery. In 2007 that team is 4-12 and was reeling from the Vick and Petrino stuff and then Ryan opens his career by going 56-22. By his fourth year, they were a play away from the Super Bowl. From 2008-2012, the Falcons were sixth in the NFL in points and the only teams ahead of them had Brady, Manning, Favre, Rivers and other Manning. Ryan was elite in those years when you look at QBR, which would factor game situation as opposed to traditional QB rating. The box score numbers just weren’t like they are now, either, so it looks weird to have a 90 rating guy being called elite but that was like having a 100 rating now. With his last good situation, he had an MVP season, which is also one of the greatest seasons ever by a QB and he was absolutely great in the Super Bowl. Cousins is a much smaller, much less physically gifted QB without the intangibles of Ryan. They really aren’t similar in many ways as players. Kirk has settled into consistently solid seasons where he thrives with good circumstances and has pretty glaring weaknesses. He’s good enough to produce mid-pack offenses and doesn’t elevate a franchise the way that Ryan once did with Atlanta.
I think Ryan is a lot like Eli Manning. Early in his career he’s gunslinging and having peaks and valleys but the peaks were extremely high. What we’ve seen in the last few years is someone with high enough IQ to still make the right decisions but he’s on bad teams and is fading physically. Ryan has still scored decent PFF grades but he doesn’t have nearly the arm that he used to. At his best, he’s only below the GOATs of the mid-2000s. These days Cousins is better, so long as he continues to play at the same level as the last few years.
@Scott_Roberts25 Mailbag/Fans Only question: I’m on the current WR3/future WR2 train like many Purple Insiders. Where do you draw the line of raw talent vs a more polished receiver in the draft? I’m not gonna lie having receivers who are strong technical route runners is where I lean vs a Patterson type unless you have a true plan for how you will unlock him if route running doesn’t develop. Is that fair? Would you take a complete talent at receiver or a freak athlete that can do a couple things well but is limited in other spaces if they are relatively comparable prospects?
I think about prospect weaknesses more than strengths. What could undo the guy? There have been a lot of great receivers in recent years but the ones who failed were usually those who couldn’t master the details of playing receiver. Patterson is unique in that his talent is with the football in his hands. Most receivers aren’t on his level with that even if they are freaks physically. In the NFL, it mostly comes down to technique and hands. Can you create space? Can you track the ball? When you have all of those things and the physical freakishness, you get somebody like Jefferson but I’m not sure there’s a guy in this draft with everything. Jameson Williams might be the closest.
@alstrain Thielen and Jefferson are both very technical receivers. Would the Vikings benefit from drafting true x receiver (football!) to be their version of DK Metcalf
It’s not a good idea to pigeon hole yourself into saying “get this type of receiver.” If you have three guys who are all versatile and technical, that sounds good to me. It’s not like a basketball or hockey lineup where you’re trying to find particular skill sets that compliment each other. Sometimes it works out that way but most passing games these days require receivers to run short, intermediate and deep and line up in the slot. Not to mention that I saw a stat that Jefferson was among the best in the NFL in “go” routes over the last two years. He’s as good going deep as DK and better at other stuff. Take the best receiver, find what works for him and do it over and over.
@vikingsjazzfan Talk me into believing the draft approach from this group will be any different from the previous regime when nothing else seems to be.
I can’t because I have no idea. The differences between teams in their draft strategies are pretty subtle these days and we never know what they intended to do. We can only judge on what they did, which is dictated by 31 other teams. I don’t expect that we’ll be talking next week about the shocking draft approach that flipped the NFL universe on its head. It might be as small as valuing one trait or element of a player’s game higher than the previous regime. That said, if they draft a WR or QB early, it will be quite different.
@mynamelshunter What do you think about this potential trade: Dalvin, 2022 1st, KJ Osborn, 2023 5th to 49ers for Deebo, 2023 1st, and Elijah Mitchell Frees up $ for Vikings to give Deebo a contract, allows the team to pivot into a pass 1st offense, and offers ammo to move up for QB next year
I was following along until you gave the Vikings a 49ers first-round pick. The 49ers do weirdly tend to spend money on RBs, so it might be somewhat fair to have Cook/Osborn/1st/5th for Samuel and Mitchell but whoever trades for Deebo is going to have to trade a lot. The Dolphins and to give up a first, second and fourth-round pick in 2022 along with fourth- and sixth-round selections in 2023 to get Tyreek Hill. Especially when the 49ers do not have to move Samuel, they have the leverage to jack the price way up.
@youvikethat1 Is there anyone less worthy of so many commercials in their time in the NFL as there have been for Baker Mayfield? Are there other comparisons? It seems like for years every commercial break had a Mayfield commercial.
Tim. Tebow.
@tadfundermann Where are you putting your money today on the first round pick? The obvious things of trade back, WR, falling EDGE/CB, etc are there. However, are there any out of left field options we should be prepared for?
The wisdom of crowds has been pretty accurate in recent years about this team’s draft picks. A lotta mock drafters were in on Bradbury in 2019, receiver/corner in 2020 and Darrisaw 2021. By that logic, cornerback would be where the smart money is. It’s really hard to figure out an out-of-left-field option unless it was a trade down to pick a linebacker that Ed Donatell fell in love with. That would be a complete shock though. I guess we should prepare for just about anything but I suspect everyone who projected them to pick a defensive player will probably be right.
@BIG_dannn every time I hear of a trade back scenario of the Vikings trading back into the 20’s of the draft they expect the Vikings to get a next year first round pick back but last year all they got was two thirds.. which one is more realistic to happen if we trade back?
All depends on how many teams are trying to get to that spot and who they’re trying to take. If the Saints and Steelers are both looking to move into the 12th pick to take Malik Willis or something, maybe there’s enough bidding war to get more value than expected. By the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart — which is still used, according to former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff — the 12th pick is worth 1200 points and No. 20 is 850. A mid-second round pick is a little over 400. So maybe a 2023 second-rounder?
@mattverick I like that for the first time in a while, Vikings fans don't know who/what position the GM is going to pick. While CB seems obvious need, WR also seems just as plausible. But how would fans react if they went completely off script and took an OT or LB at 12?
At that point, we would want to know if somebody slipped something into Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s drink before the offseason because there’s no argument for tackle or LB (unless the linebacker is a pass rushing outside LB). At least in trying to figure out what’s going on with their contract restructures and half measures to be competitive, it made sense that ownership wanted them to remain in the hunt. Picking a linebacker or tackle would be flat out bizarre and I’m guessing fans would react the same way that Jets fans did when they picked Kyle Brady instead of Warren Sapp back in the day.
@MattAnderson_8 Typically drafting specialists is a no-no That being said, would you support the #Vikings drafting the Punt God Matt Araiza? If so, at what point would you feel comfortable doing so?
I don’t see any point to ever drafting a punter. How good would he have to be in order to have more worth than an average player at one of the key positions? Drafting a guy to play 40-70 plays per year and add about five yards more net yards at best in an offensive environment where there are going to be fewer and fewer punts every year… I can’t find the value in it unless the guy kicks it 60 yards net every time.
@NicholasM_1993 What is your favorite non-vikings sports venue to attend in the Twin Cities?
Target Field on a July night is hard to beat but I really enjoy the environment of Lynx games. I’ve been a Lynx season ticket holder since 2018. The St. Paul Saints need a shoutout too. I haven’t gone since they switched to Triple-A but I like the small ballpark and effort they put into the games to make them fun. Not to just name all of them but I went to a United game two summers ago while knowing zip about soccer and had a good time. You’re right on top of the action and the crowd is nuts.
@chinanderm Ben gave his crystal ball take on an episode this week, but what’s your whackiest/most outlandish scenario that could happen on night one of the draft? Both Vikings-related and not Vikings-related.
Non-Vikings related would be some type of crazy player trade. Maybe Deebo Samuel or whatever other disgruntled player (Kyler Murray?) ends up getting moved for some insane amount of draft capital to Team X that’s trying to copy the “Rams Model.” The wackiest non-QB related Vikings scenario would be Adofo-Mensah going complete galaxy brain and trading back a bunch of times and going right out of the first round, then giving us some bananas analytics formula explanation on draft night.
@Jon_Vaala Obviously the 2015 draft was a great one for the Vikings. As we move into a new era, what are the top 3 drafts of the Spielman era? What was the worst?
The best three were 2015, 2020 and 2014. Getting Jefferson makes it easy to ignore what happened with Jeff Gladney. They also got two other reasonably good players in Cleveland and Dantzler. In 2014, yes, they passed on Aaron Donald but overall Anthony Barr had a good career and they gave themselves a shot at a franchise QB. Even Teddy getting them to a division title is a win for the 32nd pick. The worst is easily 2016. The best player in that draft was Mackensie Alexander, who had one OK season as a slot corner. David Morgan had some moments in 2017 but they got mostly nothing.
@SkolGeek Which position group is deepest in this draft? Do you think the Vikings will be able to take advantage of that? If so, how do you foresee an opportunity like that unfolding?
Edge rusher appears to be the runaway answer to that question. Taking advantage of that might mean picking one in the second round or trading back knowing that there will still be a really good pass rusher available in the back half of the first round. They also might be able to pick David Ojabo later in the draft because of his Achilles injury.
@BIG_dannn What’s the Over–under for diet Dr Pepper being drank on draft night??
Well, the draft probably goes four hours, so I’d say at least one per hour during the draft and then a post-draft wind-down Dr. P will be in order to reflect on it all.
@kyleshaner Who are your player comps for some of your podcast guests and fellow Vikings reporters (only one can be Danielle Hunter)?
Eric Eager of PFF played tight end in college. He is a Rhett Ellison type. Courtney Cronin isn’t that athletic but she’s a competitor. She can be Case Keenum. Paul Hodowanic is a prospect with upside but needs refinement. His comp is Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Brian Murphy is the grizzled vet. Our Terence Newman. I can be Danielle Hunter because I was much better after college too.
@headcoach21 Out of all the pre- draft connections and stories in recent years do you think the “Mike Zimmer loves Johnny Manzel” story line made the least amount of sense??
I wasn’t here for that one, so I’m not sure if there was truth to all draft rumors but I do think based on Zimmer’s frustration with Cousins’s competitive fire, maybe he would have liked Manziel’s moxie. I always felt like Manziel could have been good with his head on straight. I’m blanking on strange pre-draft connections of previous years. You’ll have to remind me of some of them. Probably the pre-draft buzz that had the least amount of chance of happening was based on trades. I remember Daniel Jeremiah talking in 2018 about how they could trade Kyle Rudolph and we did the same dance in 2020. They tried to get Trent Williams. But nothing ever came to fruition.
@CoachE_8 Guys I assume are gone by 12. Juice, Kayvon, Aiden, Neal, Ickey, Stingley, Malik, Cross, and Trayvon. If true, who are you running to the podium for out of everyone left? If these guys are gone I'm tempted to draft London or Hamilton, otherwise I'm trading back.
Not that I fancy myself a good predictor of success when it comes to the draft but I really like Kyle Hamilton. It stands to reason that the counterpunch to more dynamic and versatile offenses would be more dynamic and versatile defensive players. It looks to me like Hamilton can do just about anything and we’ve seen from Harrison Smith what a complete safety means to a defense. London concerns me a little with the speed thing. There might be other receivers who have better odds to be good.
@RobDN1 Lots of discussion this week about Jefferson’s future contract. How many premium contracts (QB1 APY) can teams afford?
There isn’t a simple answer to that question. If you have an expensive QB, there are ways to time everyone else’s contracts around it so you have a window to win with a bunch of expensive players who aren’t that expensive for a year or two or who don’t have their peak cap seasons at the same time. There are also ways to move money around to fit whoever you want to fit, if you’re willing to pay the price later. An all-in team could probably find their way to four or five players whose average annual salaries were elite at their position if they needed to do so (the Rams have four and have done a lot with the cap). But then that team has to have stars that take cheap deals to win, and good players on rookie contracts.
@BenOlsonMN If you’re the GM what would you do at 12? Trade back, trade up, select a player. Who are players you’d move up for if they’re falling on draft night?
I’m taking the best receiver at No. 12 and apologizing to nobody. I don’t think there’s anyone worth trading up to get unless it meant moving up two spots to take Malik Willis. I’m expecting that he’s not going to be there at 12 and that it would be expensive to move up and pick him. Maybe Hamilton or Thibodeaux if it was only one spot and didn’t cost that much but this team isn’t really in position to move up.
@Tannn_The_Man Overall I’m not a fan on the depth in this class, and getting some 2014 vibes from it, great players but not great depth. That said if at 12 your evaluated great players are already gone. Do you still take BPA since you are trying to be competitive this year or do you try and get the best outcome for next years draft by moving down (maybe out of the 1st round) and collect at a minimum a projected top 15 next year?
I’m looking at this draft like it has very few true elite talents but lots of good players into the second, third, fourth rounds. I do think trading down is an option because of that, depending on what other teams are willing to give but I also think that the 12th pick is still a place where you can get a franchise changer. Moving down is a viable option and is backed by some of the studies of draft value but it’s not likely that they’ll get a 2023 first-round pick for moving down. If that option is on the table, yes, I’d do that over taking the pick at No. 12.
@chinanderm What’s the deal with Kirk’s no-trade clause? I often hear you mention it only kicks in for 2023?
To clarify, I have wondered aloud if it only kicks in at the start of 2023 or if it exists for this year and next. We don’t get press releases with the details of no-trade clauses, so I’ve been curious about the details. I’m not reporting that it kicks in for 2023 but in an offseason where tons of wild things have happened, it ran through my mind that the craziest thing the Vikings could do would be shocking everyone with a Kirk trade. The odds are about 0.0001% but that would be some 3D Kwesi chess that we never saw coming.
@draftguy09 Do you think NFL front offices pay any attention to mock drafts (whether from fans or NFL media people)? Obviously they should form their own opinions on prospects, but do they take into account things like fan support, etc. when evaluating prospects?
I don’t think there’s much attention paid to media mocks but I know that teams do their own mocks and I’m sure they have people reading everything about the teams ahead of them in order to project which players could be available. The times in which teams have drafted players to excite the fan base are usually when the owner is calling the shots. The GMs aren’t consciously factoring in whether fans will like the pick or not but the concern they might have is that outside criticism would get back to the owner, who wouldn’t be happy that the GM made a pick that fans don’t like.
@vikings_cg What is one player being mocked around 12 that you would be upset if the Vikings took? Thanks!
Well, I’m going to have a great night no matter what happens. But a player that I’ve seen mocked to the Vikings that I would really question is Jordan Davis. I do not understand that at all. They have Tomlinson and Phillips already, there’s no need for another nose tackle.
@alexjjlarsen What's the most realistic (based on team needs/reports and draft projections) player the Vikings could draft at 12 to absolutely disappoint/enrage the fanbase? i.e. who would be the worst (still reasonable) pick?
I’ve gotten the feeling throughout draft season that Vikings fans’ hearts aren’t really in this draft and I think that’s because it’s hard to find a player who they could pick at 12 that wouldn’t be mostly met with approval. They have so many clear immediate and long-term needs that it’s hard to miss the target. The thing that would set many people off would be passing on Malik Willis if he somehow ended up available at No. 12. Then we’d be arguing about that for years.
@DanielVroman2 This is such a weird draft season. I have so many questions about how the new leadership will conduct things and how different they will approach things. That said I guess my question really is how much can we expect to learn over the course of next weekend?
It’s either a lot or nothing. If they take an unexpected path and pick a QB or do something radical with trades etc., then we will get the impression that things are different now and they’re going to have some draft hacks we didn’t see coming. But playing it straight seems like a much more likely outcome i.e. picking a corner in the first round and then maybe grabbing a receiver later on. Possibly trading down. These things are coloring within the lines but also very reasonable decisions considering where they stand. In that case, we wouldn’t be able to make any grand statements.
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