Friday Mailbag: Oh, the draft scenarios!

Vikings fans have turned their eyes to the draft with most of free agency in the books

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. We’re in that strange time where free agency is over and the draft isn’t quite here yet. That leaves plenty of time to talk about stuff, so let’s dive in….

Thomas H…Considering the total 53 man roster, last year the Vikings had at least 4 different TE’s active at some point in the season. This year they lost Mundt and Muse, plus Oliver is in his final contract year. Is it possible or likely that we see a TE drafted on Day 2?

It’s always possible but I’m out on drafting a tight end for this roster. You can find TE2s and TE3s in free agency and undrafted free agency every year for very reasonable prices. Just look at Tyler Conklin. We all know that he can play, yet he was available for practically nothing as depth in the free agent market.

Griffin… Does KOC's comments of essentially "Yes Best Player Available is nice but we want them to be on the field as well" change what you think the Vikings will focus on with their first round pick?

Nah. Like I wrote in my article the other day, I can make a really good philosophical argument for wide receiver but it’s not a particularly practical pick before the third round. I’ve always viewed their draft approach as being Best Player Available at cornerback, safety, guard and defensive tackle. Anything else would be a pretty big surprise. All of those spots could get the guy on the field right away — even if it’s just in a rotational spot — and develop them for down the road.

Pheaney… I missed the Overbaugh accidentally causing the Minneapolis Miracle story. Could you re-share that?

Well, pull up a chair, this is a good one.

In Week 16 of the 2017 season, the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau. In the victory, their long snapper Kevin McDermott got hurt. The next week they signed an undrafted LS from Alaska named Jeff Overbaugh. While Mr. Overbaugh did a fine job snapping the ball in the famed playoff game against the New Orleans Saints, he made a grave error midway through the game as the Vikings were protecting a lead. It was later revealed by the special teams coach that Overbaugh blocked the wrong way and allowed a Saints rusher to come in and block Ryan Quigley’s punt. Drew Brees scored quickly, helping set up a Brees comeback that would ultimately be thwarted by Stefon Diggs’s sideline, game-winning touchdown. Without Overbaugh’s mistake, it’s very possible that the Saints wouldn’t have been able to take the lead in the final moments of the game because they wouldn’t have had the benefit of the field position from the blocked punt.

Next time you see the Miracle on NFL Network, watch for Overbaugh’s blunder.

If you guys didn’t know that I wrote a book on the Minneapolis Miracle back in 2020… well… I did. You can read it here.

Bradley P….Die on the hill for one prospect the Vikings should absolutely want. Who you got?

I’m clearly going to die on the wide receiver/Luther Burden hill here but let’s say within the bounds of those four positions. Probably Derrick Harmon. The data behind him is so, so strong. He had a pass-rush win rate of 17.8%, which is downright ridiculous. Size, fluidity, highlight tape, numbers. The big fella has just about everything. If they play guys like Hargrave and Allen 500-600 snaps, they can still give Harmon plenty of early rotational time and he can develop into a long-term game changer.

Anglo Vike…We have now have Jordan Mason to spell Jones or provide a change of pace/style and a lot is being said about these two. So does this leave CJ Ham out in the cold and a potential cut or waiver later this year? I love the guy but he didn’t get much love as a FB from KOC before Mason’s arrival and now seems to be forgotten about- your thoughts?

I don’t think it changes anything about Ham’s role. He is still a huge presence on all phases of special teams and they can use him intermittently in the traditional blocking role with the run game in front of Jones or Mason and he’s carved out a spot as a third-down pass blocker as well. Ham brings value to the team still.

Eldon…Ben Goessling of the star tribune tweeted that Kwesi 's contract runs through the 2026 draft is it possible that we will see an extension right after the 2025 draft much like KOC at the end of the season?

Possible, yeah. Both Kwesi and Mark Wilf said they were working on it and indicated they want it done. For right now, we can put away the tinfoil hats and take their word for it that it’ll get worked out. If we get to training camp and nothing has happened, it becomes a little more curious. But Mark was very strong in his statement that he wanted this leadership to continue. When he put it that way, I’m inclined to believe him.

Joe J… I know you love comp pick questions, so here we go: Since FA signings after the draft don’t count against the formula for next year’s draft, do they go into the calculation for the year after or just not at all?

I believe the answer is not at all. But since the formula isn’t public, it’s always really hard for me to say anything definitive about it. All I know is that the Vikings know the formula and they act accordingly to maximize comp picks, so I don’t spend any time thinking about it. I wait until they announce it and then I do a draft sim.

Wade M…Is there anything to the Asante Samuel steam, as far as you can tell? Any other signings we might reasonably expect once the compensatory pick window is closed?

I dunno. There certainly has been a lot of hot air this offseason, so I’m always inclined to just wait and see. Samuel does make sense for the Vikings if they don’t draft a corner though. I would expect a backup quarterback, possibly interior O-line depth depending on the draft, maybe if they ignore my cries and don’t take a wide receiver they call Keenan Allen and see if he wants to play. Probably a handful of new dudes show up for minicamp.

Florian Kubes…Several different national sportswriters (people who should know better) stated J.J. McCarthy is recovering from two major surgeries with one being an ACL repair. Is it just a slip of the fingers in writing or trying to beat a deadline? Or do some writers just glance at twitter feed and write from what real reporters write? Seems like lazy/sloppy journalism.

It’s a bad mistake since it’s a totally different injury but it’s also hard to keep track of all 32 teams’ injuries. Editors should be fact checking those things. As always, follow your local beat reporters!

Jimmy G…Who will Minnesota draft in the 1st round, or trade back?

If I’m guessing today, I’ll say they stick and pick Georgia safety Malaki Starks with the 24th selection. But if I knew the answer, it wouldn’t be any fun, right?

Bradley P…. Sanders or Dart go first?

I’m having a difficult time buying the Jaxon Dart buzz. One thing that’s clear from the last five years is that the mock draft community really struggles with the quarterbacks. Last year they had Penix and Nix as second rounders and they both went in the top 15. Many thought Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder were first-round picks and they went in the third. So I don’t have any confidence that they’ll nail it with Sanders or Dart but it feels like Sanders should go higher because he was always considered the better prospect.

Roger N…Is there any talk about NFL team movement or expansion? Would the next NFL city be US or international?

I don’t think so. It’s clear they want lots and lots of international games but the logistics of moving a team to another country is probably too difficult to overcome. I’m sure that someday there will be a commissioner who wants 40 teams and I’m sure there would be 40 cities who would have no problem supporting the popularity of the NFL. I would despise that though. The product is perfect just the way it is right now. The only thing I want them to change is putting a referee in a booth watching the same TV broadcast we have and buzzing down to the refs when something needs to be fixed.

Jeff… With regard to the injury concerns of a few of the high-end free agents Kwesi signed, I think you have to look at the specific injuries before declaring these as high risk signings. Jonathan Allen is coming off a torn pectoral that was surgery repaired. Hargrave had a partially torn triceps that was surgically repaired. Fries had a tibia fracture, again surgically repaired. Mason had a high-ankle sprain. Kelly underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on his knee. It's possible these could become problems again, but other than Kelly, the injuries seem like the kind that are fully resolved within a year of so. I think the gamble on these guys was worth it. How do you see this?

I don’t disagree that a lot of these injuries are one-time type things. We saw Danielle Hunter have some injuries and keep playing. Anthony Barr with his torn pec too. And I totally buy the thing about the medical staff being a difference maker. It’s just that players who have as much milage as guys like Hargrave, Allen and Kelly come along with an inherent risk. We can’t pretend it’s not there, it’s just the history of human beings playing football. I do think DT is a position that has a fairly good reputation with aging.

The truth is, nobody can ever really predict injuries. It’s the most frustrating part of the sport. Turn injuries off, like Madden!

Dan… Do you think the recent rise of NIL will create a short period of time where there are fewer 1st / 2nd round graded prospects in the draft and therefore water down draft quality? Without NIL, these prospects would be incentivized to leave early, whereas with NIL, it could reduce the urgency for them to jump? After 3 to 4 years, the whiplash effect of NIL would no longer be felt as the situation would have normalized. I could see an NFL team in the short-term slightly deprioritizing late 1st / 2nd round picks if more players are staying in college.

I’d be shocked if NIL changed anything. If guys are projected to be drafted in the first or second rounds, they are going to come out in the draft. There’s no comparison in the type of money they can make, even if it feels like they’re getting crazy rich in college. It’s probably the guys that are later round picks who might stay and remain college stars for another year but they will be replaced by players who already stayed longer in college.

Isaac… Andrew Van Ginkel is a dawg. Dallas Turner = Van Ginkel except swap dawg for traitsy. Kind of like a tweener where he can play edge and off ball but isn’t great at either.

If you’ve been following long enough, you know one of my oldest sayings: It’s about what they do, not what they say. If the Vikings went out and signed a Patrick Jones replacement immediately in free agency as a priority, then I would have gotten pretty concerned about Dallas Turner. They still haven’t added anyone, meaning that Turner is in line to take a big leap in playing time in 2025. Edge rusher traditionally is one of the hardest positions to play as a rookie, so let’s give Turner another year before we start calling him a bust, OK? He’ll be the rough old age of 22 next year, so I might even go crazy enough to give him even more time than that to keep developing.

I don’t disagree that Van Ginkel is a dawg but I doubt he was as dawg-like over the first couple games right after they drafted him. I’ll never understand people’s need to “call it” with players when we’ve seen a ton of guys over the years start slow and turn into great players.

I also don’t even agree with the “traitsy” part of Turner. He was super productive in college and he has high IQ and very natural football ability (i.e. intercepting the pass in the Seattle game). He’s not just a walking athletic profile.

Bernt… would KOC allow the Rodgers stuff to continue as a way of protecting JJ McCarthy? If Rodgers wasn’t a thing, there would be a ton of attention and expectation on JJ right now. As long as Rodgers is out there, we’re all not talking about JJ just as we aren’t talking about recent FA signings. JJ, in a sense, benefits from reduced attention and expectation as long as Rodgers is a storyline, and I think KOC trusts his relationships and reputation with players that they all will give him (KOC) the benefit of the doubt on whatever is going on.

This is a No Tinfoil Hat zone. KOC wasn’t playing 3D chess with JJ McCarthy by talking to Rodgers. He was talking to Rodgers because Rodgers wanted to play for the Vikings. They talked about it, decided not to sign him, end of story (unless something happens to JJ).

Todd… Ok here is a solution for LG I would sign Jedrick Willis Jr. and ask him to compete for the LG position with Blake. He projects out at 9.56 Guard and could play OT in a pinch. His PFF scores are not great but would be a great back up. PS I am a Henry Byrd FAN so I do not say this lightly.

It’s totally fine to take a swing at a guy like Wills who failed at tackle. Maybe a Mekhi Becton situation. For no money, sure, why not.

You know you’re hardcore when you say you’re a Henry Byrd fan. Whew.

Jeremy… How would you describe what Flores is looking for in a nose tackle? Phillips certainly gets it done inside but doesn't look like the prototype big guy. He is more of a DE for me. I would love to add a big 320 plus guy in the middle to provide stout run defense and push the pocket with power!