Friday mailbag: Offensive philosophy, positional value and Saints gameday

Vikings fans are starting to look toward the future with two weeks left

Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

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Merry Christmas everyone! Reminder: Just enjoy having football on today.

Let’s have a look at what’s on Vikings fans’ minds heading into Week 16…

@skolmurasaki Who is the next Stefanski on the current Vikings coaching staff? By that, I mean are there anyone the ownership should not let them slip away (like Tomlin and Stefanski)?

I’ll admit it’s been more difficult getting to know the assistants this year because of COVID restrictions but two names that come to mind are Andrew Janocko and Daronte Jones.

Janocko is the receivers coach presently but he’s building a Stefanski-like resume. He worked as an offensive assistant with Tampa Bay and then with quarterbacks as a college coach and then was an assistant offensive line coach before getting bumped up to working with receivers. So he’s done a little bit of everything and seems to be their up-and-comer on that side.

Jones is in his first year in Minnesota. He took over as defensive back’s coach for Jerry Gray. He brought in a system of teaching corners how to watch film to prepare for games that they seem to like. He’s had a really tough gig here and appears to have done a good job working with guys like Gladney/Dantzler.

One coach who was here before he left with Stefanski that’s worth watching is Drew Petzing. Really bright guy with a lot of energy.

@realJeffMastro If the Vikings face reality & commit to rebuilding, will they go all-in on it? Like release/trade all of the veterans making real money then build from the feet up through draft choices, undrafted FA's & waiver wire? Or will they continue to stay stuck somewhere in the middle?

Very unlikely that they view this offseason as one where they’re going to tear down and rebuild. There will be some tough choices — namely with Riley Reiff, Anthony Harris and Kyle Rudolph — but they viewed last year as the offseason where a lot of veterans would need to be replaced. This time around, they’re not likely to move on from guys like Adam Thielen and Harrison Smith, who you’d consider trading if they were in a full rebuild mode.

Overall they have turned over a massive part of the roster over the last year though. The 2021 defense probably ends up with eight different starters from the guys who started in the 2019 playoff game against New Orleans. And if they move on from Reiff, you’d be talking about a new left tackle, left guard and right guard from that game and a new starting tight end.

That doesn’t mean they won’t stay stuck in the middle. That’s a plausible outcome with the current QB and his contract and status quo at the other key spots in the organization but if they do end up 7-9/8-8/9-7 next year, it won’t be because they didn’t make a lot of changes recently. They just didn’t make the BIG changes at QB/HC/GM.

@jasdol07 Did you see Barnwell’s article about the quarterback reshuffling that could happen in the offseason? What’s your take on the Vikings scenario?

Yeah so Barnwell has the Vikings trading Cousins to the Colts for a third-round pick. It’s a great deal for the Colts if Rivers retires because they aren’t picking high enough to take one of the top QBs and Cousins could sit behind an outstanding offensive line there. Barnwell suggests they replace Cousins by trading for Garner Minshew.

Read his whole piece here.

In order for it to make sense to me, the Vikings would have to take their first-round pick, tack on all their thirds and next year’s first and trade up to get one of the top four quarterbacks in the draft.

It’s a philosophically good idea. Someone with Minshew’s talent level would be in the Case Keenum ballpark so the team doesn’t automatically have to sink to the bottom of the league. With the weapons on the team currently, they’d probably still be competitive (especially with cap space to spend in free agency) while setting up for the future.

Even if you replace Minshew in this scenario with Marcus Mariota, it can still be justified. Mariota was a winning QB in Tennessee and would make a good placeholder.

Do I think any of this is going to happen? No. Cousins played well this year. It’s hard to see the front office saying, “Hey remember that contract extension for Kirk? Whoops!”

@_Born2Early_ Vikings have a lot of holes to fill next year, but could you see them taking another 1st rounder on a corner?

It would be very surprising if they did with the way Gladney/Dantzler have played down the stretch but — hear me out — not the craziest thing in the world. We’ve seen the impact this year of both poor pass rush and poor coverage. One of them is easier to find help in free agency than the other. Usually you have to pay top dollar for coverage whereas there’s always some rotational pass rushers floating around on the market (the Vikings just ignored them this year to trade for Yannick Ngakoue). And with Danielle Hunter presumably coming back, there will be improved pass rush from that alone.

If Mike Hughes doesn’t come back healthy or either Gladney/Dantzler doesn’t turn out or gets hurt, they’re right back in Playing Chris Jones Every Game Land. Whether it’s another first-round pick or third-rounder or free agent, they can’t look at the cornerback position and say it’s all set.

@KyeBaxter Say Zimmer and Spielman were fired after the season. How quickly are they both snatched up by other franchises?

Zimmer would be immediately. Think about a team like Cincinnati that desperately needs to get back to being relevant. Zimmer would be terrific with a team like that or a team that was on the cusp of being a winner but needed to improve on defense.

Spielman, I’m not sure. He’s got great experience in the league and has been a part of building competitive teams but GMs don’t seem to recycle the same way coaches do. Teams usually seem have the next person on tap. If there was a team that needed to get their s— together, Spielman would be a good choice because of his experience.

@scatonato So are we going the hybrid 4-1-6? Wilson and then all active DBs? This is....uhhhh....something for tomorrow....

No Eric Kendricks. No Anthony Barr. No Troy Dye. Todd Davis doubtful. Folks we are down to Eric Wilson, Hardy Nickerson Jr., Ryan Connelly and Blake Lynch playing linebacker for the Vikings. Not exactly how they drew it up.

What it says to me is: Defense usually fluctuates from year to year because of things like injuries. The Vikings had unbelievable health on D from 2015 to 2019. This year they hit the wall with it on that side of the ball. It’s part of the reason offenses generally drive success — because defenses can lose a few players and look like a shell of themselves.

How Zimmer will handle it against New Orleans is probably not any different than if everyone was healthy. My guess is they look to pressure Brees up the middle as much as possible and cut off underneath routes. One thing going for these LBs is that they’ve all been on the team all year and should know the defense.

That’s the best I’ve got.

@JSherman6918 at this point, how much better has Bradbury been than Elflein his rookie year? That pick should be considered a miss imo. He’s returned about third round value and think positional value should be a bigger part of the discussion this offseason.

By PFF metrics, 2017 Elflein and 2020 Bradbury are only separated by a couple points. Elflein ranked 21st as a rookie and Bradbury 23rd this year. So the numbers are comparable, so are the strengths/weaknesses. It’s unfortunate that Elflein suffered those injuries in the NFC Championship game because it clearly derailed a career that got off to a good start.

It’s an interesting subject because the Vikings got what they wanted with that draft pick. Bradbury’s already an above average run/screen blocker and usually O-linemen don’t reach their peak until their fourth year so he’s still going to improve. But with his size, he was never going to be someone like Frank Ragnow, who’s 6-foot-5, in terms of pass protection.

That’s where you might question where the selection was made. Is a very good run blocking center worth more in Wins Above Replacement than, say, a receiver like Deebo Samuel or AJ Browh that they could have picked that year? Probably not. Is his improvement this year noticable and would you project more going forward? Yes. If you draft a long-time starter at any position late in the first round, it’s hard to say that it went wrong.

Also maybe next year the Vikings should try giving him quality guards and see what happens. PFF’s studies have found O-Lmen do impact the player next to them.

@rk2022 What are the chances Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr are on the team in 2021

I’ll go 75%. With so many spots on the defense to fix, it’s really hard to see them bailing on two Pro Bowl players and leaving even more gaps to fill. The Vikings always work really hard on these cap issues so it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising for Hunter to end up with a re-worked contract that put more cash in his pocket (and lowered his cap hit for 2021) and for something to happen with Barr i.e. converting base salary into bonus money.

Replacing Barr with Eric Wilson isn’t a crazy idea but Wilson is a free agent so they’d have to make that decision before he hit the market and find a way to move Barr. With Mike Zimmer’s affinity for Barr (and presumably a great deal of power in these decisions), it’s hard to see them moving on.

@KrisKUSTRADIO I am a Vikings STM and I REALLY love watching Patrick Mahomes. I was so excited when my gf bought me his jersey. Who is one non viking (never been a Viking) player you would recommend Vikings fans to support? What player would be a huge no-no for Viking fans? (Other than A Rod)

Mahomes is certainly a good choice considering you have the checked boxes of AFC player, similar Midwest franchise that’s living your dream and seemingly pretty cool dude.

DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson are great choices for QBs who will be with their teams for a really long time and remind you that QBs can be mobile. If you’re obsessed with the guard position, Quinten Nelson of Indy is a good choice. Buffalo’s a tortured franchise with a really good receiver whose jersey you could buy. I mean Cole Beasley, of course.

Kidding aside, Tua is a guy to root for and Miami has some really sweet versions of their uniforms. Justin Herbert is fun and the Chargers’ jerseys are top five.

I’m not the law when it comes to jersey buying because the only ones I own are a Tim Couch and Kyle Orton. Someone gave me the Orton as a hilarious going away present when I moved to Minnesota. That said, I’d stay away from anyone who’s done some concerning stuff in their past like Ben Roethlisberger or anyone who’s probably on their way out like Odell Beckham — unless you’re trying to be ironic.

If I were to wear a player’s jersey, let it be a classic fullback. Lorenzo Neal, hook me up bro.

@sgarvey03 Vikings finish 7-9. Can we draft a QB in the early rounds, give Cousins another shot in 2021 with this roster (older, improved, get guys back from injury) and then make a decision for 2022? Seem feasible?

It is feasible. What hurts that possibility is not having a second-round pick. I saw Mike Renner from PFF called this the deepest QB class ever, which might mean somebody interesting is still around in the third round but the second round would have been ideal if they didn’t want to go all-in on spending a boat load of draft picks to move up to take someone like Justin Fields or Trey Lance.

They could get Mac Jones from Alabama or Kyle Trask in the first but those are probably overdrafts. They could also wait and see if Jamie Newman (strong-armed kid who sat out this year) is there in the third round.

It’s a good strategy. There’s nothing more important than QB. But the issue is the sheer number of positions that they will have needs. Off the top of my head: Offensive line, receiver, three-technique, defensive end, corner, safety.

Not saying I would pass on a QB this year. I’d take two. But they might look at it much differently.

@Lagos_Jeremy Knowing the outcome of the 2012 playoff game vs the Packers, do you think it would have been worth it to go to overtime in week 17 to see if Adrian Peterson could break the all-time rushing record?

Questions like these are the reason we have a mailbag that runs strong each week.

Coaches are always going to have the mentality that winning is more important than anyone’s stats, so even if they knew the outcome, they’d still say it was the right decision to win.

But there’s also the fact that 31 teams’ seasons end without a ring. If you’re not going to get a ring, get something awesome like an all-time record. If I knew the outcome of the playoff game, I’d take it to OT.

@vikesfan1930 Matt, it seems that the vikings offense is "1985" and that nothing will change. Do the Wilfs/Speilman try to convince Mike to throw more or else they move on next season? I feel like it's "Mike is not willing to adapt to the times" Thoughts?

I don’t think it’s the place of either the Wilfs or Spielman to tell Zimmer to change his philosophy. The Wilfs have a huge sample of Zimmer ball and they signed him to an extension. So he can tell them: If you don’t want this, why did you extend me? And Spielman can try but it’s not his job to tell Zimmer how to coach. Just like if you manage one department, you don’t walk over to another one and say, “do this instead!”

While I’m fully in agreement with fans that want them to tweak the philosophy to focus more on the passing game and set the goal at being a top five scoring offense, we may be going a little far.

The Vikings are fourth in total yards this year. The edges need to be sharpened. It isn’t a case of them having no idea what they’re doing. They just put themselves behind the sticks sometimes trying to avoid Cousins turnovers.

Fun thing about 1985 though: Teams did love downfield passing like the current Vikings do. There were 12 teams that averaged more than 13 yards per completion. This year there’s zero (Vikings are at 12.1, fourth).

@jvangelder What if culpepper’s knee didn’t explode and Miami signs brees instead? What happens to New Orleans?

I would assume the Saints draft Vince Young instead of Reggie Bush and Young has a pretty similar career. Or maybe Sean Payton coaches the heck out of Young rather than him being put with Jeff Fisher and he ends up being a Hall of Famer. Maybe Vince Young would have been a rich man’s Taysom Hill.

@benjackson0812 I have not been a fan of Zimmers 1990s philosophy of offense. Do you think Gary will sit down with Mike and explain to him that Jefferson needs more targets for the offense to maximize its potential??

Gary said that he evaluates his offense statistically by using yards per play and they’re fourth in that area.

Now, you and I might look at the schedule and point out that the Vikings have played the 30th, 31st and 32nd ranked defenses this year and zero defenses in the top nine of points allowed. We might say that the Vikings’ stalled drives are what hurts them most and they’re 19th in percentage of drives producing points and we might say that a LOT of their yards have come playing from behind (59% of Kirk Cousins’s passing yards have come when trailing) and you would be right. They’ll have to be better next year than this year in order to produce the same results — which weren’t good enough to win them more than six games.

But you don’t hire Gary Kubiak to avoid the running game. Gary has done the job he’s asked to do and it’s unlikely to change.

@scatonato Did Brett Jones do something awful to Spielman and Zimmer that he can't play over Dozier? If we get into the top 10 do they consider a more mobile QB and eat the Cousins hit on a trade?

I think it’s pretty straight forward: Dozier is more athletic in the run game so they go with him over Jones and they don’t care at all what PFF says about it. What PFF does for us is quantifies the difference between Dozier and Jones. But if you ignore the data and don’t realize Dozier is dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, it might be hard to understand just how much one player is impacting the pass protection. Teams are usually great at evaluating players but this is one whopper of a blind spot for the Vikings.

I’ll put the possibility of drafting a QB is somewhere around 25%. Drafting one by trading up in the first is even lower. With that said, nobody thought Kansas City would trade up for Mahomes with Alex Smith in place either.

@VikingsFan426 Is it safe to say Andre Patterson has lot his fastball? All of our developmental guys have went bust, or are we so far away from peak Griffen, Linval, Hunter days talent wise that coaching can only do so much?

So here’s the thing about coaches: They aren’t witch doctors. If you have two fourth-rounders who can’t play in the NFL, another fourth-rounder who’s a rookie, a veteran role player who should be handling 30% of snaps, an undrafted guy who’s the size of a linebacker and a solid situational rusher in as your defensive line, there isn’t a coach on earth that’s making them good. Phil Jackson was a great coach but if he didn’t have Jordan and Shaq, the guy wouldn’t have a record any better than Sam Mitchell.

Danielle Hunter is one of the greatest athletes in the history of the NFL. Everson Griffen is was a five-star recruit out of high school who would have gone much higher in the draft if not for some personal issues and Linval was a Super Bowl champion starter.

It’s about talent. Coaches help maximize that talent, which Patterson does a tremendous job of doing. This D-line is the least talented in the NFL as currently constructed.

@smccullough5 Who were the top 3 OL and DL rookies in 2020 and what rounds were they taken in and who did the Vikings take instead in those rounds?

By PFF metrics on the O-line:

1) Michael Onwenu — 182nd overall. Vikings picked KJ Osborn with their last pick before him

2) Tristan Wirfs — Vikings had no shot at him

3) Mekhi Becton — Vikings had no shot at him

D-line

1) Chase Young — Vikings had no shot

2) Doug Costin — UDFA

3) Justin Madubuike — third round, Vikings took Ezra Cleveland with their last pick before him

(Raekwon Davis and Alex Highsmith right behind)

So yeah, picking a punt returner over a guard probably wasn’t a great choice. Otherwise, as it usually goes, the higher picks were the ones that produced the most.

@Skolllllllo How can they scheme for them this year - Last years gimmick of inside pressure worked. What can they possibly do this time?

Ah yeah, the game against the Saints. They can’t. What you’ve seen recently is that there’s no scheme fix for not having a front four that can pressure the QB. Maybe for a game against Nick Foles but not against Drew Brees. The best they can do is try to catch Brees by surprise with some coverages and see if Harrison Smith or Eric Wilson can get in the backfield once or twice on a blitz.

As always, the key part of last year’s scheme was Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter being really good at football.

@doublerick1 Why must Vikings fans always be in pain?

It’s probably as simple as never lucking into a Drew Brees/Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers/Patrick Mahomes type but I’ll leave the door open for all types of curses.

@dixdickiemo I know Zim and Kubiak are buds but we know Zims relationship with OC’s. Any chance Kubiak says ‘I’ve had enough’ and bails at the end of the season?

I get the impression Kubiak and Zimmer love working with each other. I can’t see Gary going anywhere. Zimmer said something like, “I wouldn’t want anybody else.” It wouldn’t be surprising if Kubiak remains the Vikings’ OC (barring any health issues) for as long as Zimmer’s here.

@Scott_Roberts25 Given job security may be getting tenuous in the near future any chance Rick changes to the quality over quantity approach on the number of draft picks he needs to make? Or can he just not help himself?

It’s smart to draft a ton of players because they’re all rolls of the dice. Usually trades down are much better than trades up. But we never really know what way they’re going to go. Would anything shock you? They traded up for guys like Patterson and Teddy once upon a time. They traded down about 14 times in the third round to pick a running back two years ago.

Maybe picking half of the seventh round isn’t really needed though.

@Scott_Roberts25 In a bizzaro world we likely don’t live in which of the all in offense options in the draft sounds the most fun to you? Third good receiver, exceptional tight end (Pitts), or the annual we need to use all our picks on offensive lineman?

The most fun is Jaylen Waddle of Alabama. Add his outrageous speed burst to Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and you have the most explosive offensive weapons in the league.

Part of the equation for picking a weapon is getting a decent guard or two in free agency. People rightfully obsess over the line but the last time the Vikings’ offense was very good they had Nick Easton and Joe Berger — two average/solid guards who they found with savvy moves. They haven’t accomplished that again but it’s not impossible. It is impossible to find receivers with Waddle’s freakish speed anywhere but the top of the draft.

@HokNate Offence, Defensive and Special Teams have all had some questionable plays throughout the year. How many changes do you seeing coaches wise this off-season?

@G3R4LD26 Who has been more detrimental to the growth of this franchise - Zimmer, who is a NFL dinosaur that has kept the team in the stone age in terms of philosophy? Or Cousins, who has handcuffed the team financially and the team refuses to draft a young QB out of fear of upsetting him?

Did Zimmer’s offensive philosophy possibly limit their potential at times? Sure. He’s not alone in that around the NFL. Was he detrimental to the franchise? Heck no. He’s the reason the bar is set at NFC Championship. Do you remember where this team was when Zimmer took over? They were a bus fire. The roster was bare, the culture was bad and they hadn’t been legitimately relevant in a very long time. He was at the forefront of the Vikings becoming a premier franchise again. We gotta be fair when we look at these things.

Might Zimmer’s philosophy hold them back to some extent in the future? Possible. Maybe it’s not the same fit as it once was. But detrimental to the franchise? Whew. That’s like Matt Patricia or Adam Gase language.

I could see the case for the formula of what Cousins is capable of doing vs. his contract not adding up. Overall they’ve gotten about what they should have expected out of Cousins — a little bit better version of what he was in Washington. Why I wouldn’t put that on Cousins’s shoulders is that he didn’t sign himself to the contract. The team decided they could stuff his massive contract into the cap and be fine. After three years with one playoff appearance, I’d say they miscalculated. Now it’ll be about hitting home runs on players on rookie deals and finding good/cheap free agents.

@ramseykincannon Where do the Saints rank in the “hated teams” category for the Vikings? Intentional injuries in 09, lots of high profile matchups...

I think the fact that Payton is still there puts them as a top three or four team that Vikings fans dislike. Might be No. 2 behind the Packers. They lose to Chicago but it doesn’t feel like hated with Chicago. It feels more like fans see the Bears as, “I can’t believe we lost to Chicago again.”

Both teams being good and having the Brees vs. Zimmer and two playoff classics recently put the spark back into it. It’s unfortunate that this Christmas day game doesn’t have quite the juice that it would have if the Vikings were in the playoffs.

@Russ_K33 Anyone on practice squad with potential? I remember some Kenny Willekes excitement in training camp.... before his injury.

If they’re still on the practice squad on this team, there probably isn’t anyone that’s going to become the next Adam Thielen but the answer is: Nobody knows, even the team. Sometimes a guy has a decent first training camp and shows flashes and then keeps developing into something good. Most times they never see the bright lights of an NFL game. There’s no predicting which guys will be the outliers. I can’t tell you “whew watch out for this guy!” Because if you’re on the practice squad, you’re right on the cusp of selling insurance.

@robbQthibault OK Matt, Merry Skolidays <> if a team needs a quarterback for the long term, why not use every draft pick you have on quarterbacks? Let’s not forget Brady was a six rounder and the more dice you have the better the odds? #RollMoreDice

Drafting QBs with every pick wouldn’t exactly be a great plan because you have to find ways to play them all in order to find out who might be good. Drafting two? Sure. Drafting one or two every year in the first three rounds until you find one? Yes. Washington got mocked for picking Cousins when they took RGIII and, well, that situation just shows how unpredictable it can be.

There’s no position more important and it isn’t even remotely close. Find one who’s really good on a rookie contract and you have a golden ticket.

However, picking them in the late rounds is a waste of time. There’s a reason why Tom Brady still gets brought up as the example from the later rounds: Because there’s basically nobody else past the fourth.

From Aaron via email: 1.  Assuming Eric Wilson leaves in free agency, what is the anticipated 2022 compensatory pick compensation?  Would a "tag and trade" strategy be wise?  (Feel free to revisit the decisions and outcome of the attempted "tag and trade" of Harris from last off-season in your answer.)

Tag and trade isn’t a great plan because nobody’s trading for Eric Wilson on the tag price. They should have traded Harris last year but even with his terrific performance in 2019 teams weren’t willing to shell out for a safety carrying an $11 million cap hit. If

Wilson nets them a fourth rounder as compensation it would be a big win.

2.  In a vacuum (i.e. not considering what would happen at the other O-line positions), who has better up-side potential (and down-side floor) at LEFT tackle in 2021, Ezra Cleveland or Brian O'Neill?

That’s a great question and it’s hard to know the answer with Cleveland playing right guard but my instinct is to say O’Neill by a wide margin. We know O’Neill is a really good NFL player. If Cleveland becomes even in the ballpark of O’Neill, the pick will be a home run. The fact that they stuck him at guard from the outset makes you wonder if the team sees him as a guard long term. That makes it hard to pick Cleveland here.

@chrisugarte11 What’s the story with David Morgan? Career ending injury or is there a chance he is back? He is like an extra Tackle that can catch.

Yeah David was a big part of the Vikings’ 2017 offense as a blocker and occasional outlet receiving option and generally a very friendly guy to chat with in the locker room. I got the impression the injuries were too much and that he’s done playing. Haven’t heard anything to the contrary. David, if you’re a subscriber, let us know!

Me: Who’s going to win the game?

Well thanks me, Merry Christmas, I think we’ll see a fairly competitive game that ends up being something like 27-21 Saints.

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