Friday mailbag: Offensive line options, Anthony Barr's future and trading picks

Free agency is nearly upon us and the Vikings once again have major questions up front

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By Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom

Happy Friday everyone! We’re one weekend away from free agency so let’s get right into your questions..

@GBeckTV For the Friday mailbag can we get a pie chart of the potential outcomes for a starting-left-tackle Rashod Hill experiment? Maybe based on range of PFF grade or a comp to the success of other Vikings linemen during your time here

Sam: I like your second suggestion. Here’s how it breaks down:

61%: 2018 Rashod Hill — Yes, I think Rashod Hill’s best doppelganger is Rashod Hill. If Hill is retained it feels like a seat-warmer situation like we had in 2018 after Brian O’Neill was selected. Hill started the first five games before O’Neill took over in Week 6. The same could be true with Ezra Cleveland if he flips back to left tackle. Hill wasn’t spectacularly but didn’t get Kirk Cousins killed.

27%: 2016 Andre Smith — Was brought in to start for a year at right tackle. Played four hideous games, ranking 77th out of 79 qualified tackles, then got hurt, and there were no vigilantes to come and save the day. It’s possible Hill is the bridge tackle that is counted on beyond his capability and flounders. Interestingly, one of the tackles that Smith graded better than was…

12%: 2016 T.J. Clemmings — This is the section reserved for total system failure. Clemmings was bottom 10 in pass-block grade, sacks allowed, QB hits allowed, pressures allowed, penalties and pass-blocking efficiency. Hill hasn’t hung around this long by being a bad tackle, but he only has 633 career snaps on the left side. We can’t rule out things going terribly, terribly, wrong.

@CerpinTaxt138 is 1 out of 7 day three draft picks enough to dedicate to the o-line? That is what the Vikings have allocated since 2015. Excluding TE. This seems low to me but what do I know

Sam: And it’s actually nine picks now that compensatories have been added. Feels like finding two guys — maybe a tackle and a guard — would be smart to cast a wider net. It’s rare for Day 3 lineman to contribute; that’s not a Vikings-exclusive problem. There were basically only three Day 3 rookie lineman that were average to above average last year: Kevin Dotson (fourth round), Michael Onwenu (Patriots) and Justin Herron (Patriots). That’s out of 30 taken. Obviously a fourth-round pick is different than a seventh-round pick, but in generally there’s only about a 10% chance you get something from that player in Year 1. If you’re the Vikings of the last decade, it feels like less than that.

@SkolBanger just one mans opinion here: They threw Cleveland out at RG because they were desperate. I don’t think it says anything about his ability to play LT. Ezra at LT HAS to be the play in 21

Sam: The right guard decision was out of desperation, but putting him at left guard in training camp was not. If he had legitimately been in the running to win that job, that’s one thing. But Dakota Dozier and Aviante Collins were the only ones considered while Cleveland ran with the backups. The Vikings didn’t have rookie camp or OTAs to get a glimpse of their second-round pick, and they weren’t curious to see him play left tackle?! That’s still weird to me!

You’re still correct that he’s not disqualified from being a left tackle in the future. I just wish we’d learned more about his capability in 2020.

@alexjjlarsen Play out two draft scenarios - Fields/Lance is available at 14; would you rather the Vikings take him or trade back? Slater/Sewell/Waddle/Chase/Pitts is slipping to 10, 11, 12 - would you rather the Vikings jump up or wait and see what happens?

Sam: Fields/Lance, take them. Players with Kirk Cousins’ resume and age should not have a lifetime pass as the unchallenged franchise quarterback. If you have an opportunity to get the succession plan underway, go for it, as long as you love the prospect. That could also empower the Vikings to find a trade partner for Cousins who they might have hung up on before.

I think the only time you trade up is if you’re passionate about getting your next quarterback. Otherwise, there is a ton of talent that fits the Vikings’ needs where they can be satisfied taking whoever falls. If quarterback isn’t in play, I’m looking to trade back versus forward.

@ramseykincannon how should the Vikings prioritize scheme fit vs adjusting schemes in order to maximize talent? With our OL you have to stick with OZ since you have that player type, but it frustrated me that Yannicks failure here was because he didn't fit Zimmer's "play the run then rush the QB"

Sam: I remember raising an eyebrow when Andre Patterson said he intended to change Yannick Ngakoue’s style of play to fit his own, especially when Ngakoue barely had any time to practice with the team before the season. Now he obviously didn’t do enough with Ngakoue to make him care about stopping the run, but that general approach might’ve hurt Ngakoue’s ability to be a long-term fit.

There’s a balance between fitting role players into your scheme and letting stars influence the way you operate. The Vikings, as you alluded to, are particularly rigid with the offensive line and seem too willing to sacrifice pass-blocking prowess in the name of ‘reaching the second level’ in the run game. Usually these things end up being cyclical, though. Teams that don’t adapt to their talent and end seasons with losing records aren’t kept intact very long.

@RickJamesB4 Do you think the Vikings have interest in trading for Orlando Brown Jr? If so, what do you think a deal looks like both in terms of a trade and a contract?

Sam: I’m not sure how the Ravens don’t look at the Laremy Tunsil trade and ask for a boatload. Yes, there were some other players involved in that deal to complicate our comparison, but Miami received two firsts and a second for a tackle with three years of experience that had been good but not spectacular. That’s about how I would describe Orlando Brown Jr., who could ask for between $12-15 million per year in an extension. Also, he’s never had to protect for a statuesque quarterback like Cousins. I’d steer clear.

@ATKing53632390 Would you have rather covered the Brett Favre Vikings or the Love Boat Vikings?

Matthew: Brett Favre, hands down. It’s not even remotely close. First because of the historic nature of just covering Brett Favre. That’s the 1% of the 1% athletes who have ever played sports in terms of greatness. I would have loved to look deep into what made him so good. Second, there are some reporters who love chasing stories of off-field stuff and crazy things that go on… I am not one of those reporters.

@vikesfan1930 Pie chart: Anthony Barr A. Restructures deal B. Gets traded to team x for picks C. Holds fast, nothing changes D. Gets released and Mike Zimmer falls into a great depression @MatthewColler@SamEkstrom#friday mailbag

Matthew: I’m going to go 50% restructure, 40% nothing changes and 10% the other two things. It’s just so hard to see Mike Zimmer letting him go, even if it does benefit their salary cap. Convincing him that somehow they’ll be able to bounce back without one of the centerpieces of his defense seems like a tough sell.

@WarleyOwl What do you think to the Ravens OT suggestion? Comes with decent backing!

Matthew: The quick recap of the idea is the team that wins the toss gets to pick where the ball goes and the other team decides if they want it or not.

It’s sounds wild but I’m going to tell you the truth: I don’t quite get it. Why would the team picking where the ball is placed put it anywhere except like the 5-yard line? They’d want the other team to either have to come out from there or give themselves just enough room to operate if the toss-winning team chooses to give them the ball. I don’t see a ton of other ways to go about it. Maybe I’m missing something.

How about this: Play four quarters and call it a day. You might think that’s boring and would result in a bunch of ties but I don’t think it would. Teams would play to win more. They would go for two if they scored late or choose to go for it on fourth down rather than playing for field goals. How many overtimes a year do we get anyway? It has to be less than 10.

@MikeCastellino Ever think Zim will make Barr an edge rusher like he was at UCLA feels like such a waste to use him in pass coverage constantly considering he's below average in pass coverage against TE's

Matthew: This comes up pretty often… let’s go through why that wouldn’t happen:

A) Barr has become a Pro Bowler who played every snap as the quarterback of the defense for teams on consistent top-five defenses. You’re really missing a LOT if you look at a PFF grade that ranks him 20th or whatever and think means he’s the 20th most valuable to his team.

B) Could he have blitzed Barr more often? Yes. Should a guy who isn’t a twitchy athlete without a bevy of pass rush moves and who isn’t big by that position’s standards switch positions at age 28? No.

C) His coverage is not “below average.” It’s mid-pack almost every year by PFF grades and that only factors in when you’re targeted. The Vikings have consistently been great against tight ends and running backs in the receiving game with Barr/Kendricks and that isn’t *all* Kendricks because Barr ranked 20th, 2nd, 20th in yards allowed per snap from 2017-2019. It’s not like they have abused him.

*That isn’t to say his price tag was worth it*

@NorthStarsNHL Prediction on what you realistically will feel what will happen with the Hunter situation and what you would personally do.

Matthew: I’d move him. He’s an incredible player and still young but singular stars are only worth so much in the NFL. Draft picks and the ability to sign multiple other players with the cap space he opens up down the road is just worth more than one ridiculously talented DE.

I think this gets ugly. Maybe I’ll be completely wrong and they’ll work something out soon but it just doesn’t feel that way. It feels like the guys who would have once convinced him to get it figured out are all elsewhere now. And I know there’s some of you that want the team to play hardball but this is a guy who made like $40 million in cash over the last few years and can afford to chill for awhile. It does the Vikings zero good to hang onto him if he’s valuable and doesn’t want to stay.

@TheWizardofWasz I have two for you. 1. Is there statistical evidence that LT is more valuable than RT, or is that the belief because of old school thinking? 2. Can we count on you for amplifying any and all rumors that the Patriots are picking a QB at 15, boosting the value of the 14 pick?

Matthew: PFF’s Steve Palazzolo did a study on LT vs. RT a few years ago so the data is a little outdated but he found that LT/RT are a lot closer in value than the NFL values them. Teams are moving rushers to the right side pretty often these days.

Still the quality of competition factor goes beyond what PFF numbers tell us. If a right tackle moves over to left tackle and suddenly faces a great rusher 12 times in 16 games instead of 6 times in 16 games, how does that impact the pressure rate? We can’t say. My guess is that it would by a significant margin. It’s similar to when a third line hockey player has a good scoring rate and then he’s moved to the first line and can’t handle Sidney Crosby.

There’s so many teams behind the Vikings that could pick quarterbacks that I don’t think you’ll need me. Chicago, New Orleans, Washington, Pittsburgh…

@MikeFanKato Is there enough legit/feasible financial maneuvering left with the team and cap, to sign 2 legit guards??? Let Cleveland and O'Neil be tackles and really focus on Defensive needs in the draft! Or is this just a dream?

Matthew: Since there’s only two legit guards in all of free agency, I’m going to say it’s not particularly likely. Most guard signings do not go well. Last year the Miami Dolphins gave Ereck Flowers $30 million of American actual money to sign as a free agent. He had four games that graded above 65 by PFF. Brian Winters didn’t work out for the Bills. John Miller was bad for the Panthers. Greg van Roten was just that in New York.

They need to luck out and find a cheap, serviceable player or two in free agency and then draft like four guards in the middle and late rounds. That other stuff is not a dream. Moving Cleveland to left tackle makes the most sense.

@grant_schwieger PIE CHART % chance the Vikings Week 1 starting LT is 1) Ezra 2) Rashod Hill 3) a rookie 4) a free agent (bonus one, O’Neill?)

Matthew: I’ll go with Ezra 30%, Hill 10%, a rookie 10%, O’Neill 50% … if they bring back Hill, he’s probably playing right tackle. Also decent chance Ezra goes to right tackle so I have O’Neill as the favorite.

Right now, we really don’t have any idea what they’re thinking with this decision. We’ll know much more if they do draft a left tackle in the first. If not, we’ll have to wait until OTAs to get our first peak (if there are OTAs).

@EthanShutt Who do you you think is biggest name signing we could see the Vikings get?

Matthew: Is saying Anthony Harris a cop out? He’s striking me as the free agent who thinks he’s going to get a big deal and then nobody offers what he’s asking and then he comes back.

Otherwise I’ll go with someone like Kawann Short. He’s looking for a redemption season and the Vikings can offer him playing time.

@VWO_UK With some key defensive players coming back, If the Vikings miraculously sort their offensive line this year, and the weapons we have ... do you think Kirk has it in him to take us to a Super Bowl ?

Matthew: Asking if he “has it in him” is a hard one because I watched with my own eyes as Nick Foles took a team to the Super Bowl. By that measure, there’s a lot of QBs who have it in them. Yeah he’s probably good enough if things went super, super right for them. Is it more likely that even if they were to build a great team that he’d eventually have to face a great defense and get beat in the playoffs? Yes.

Against good defenses, it usually requires tight-window throws, escaping the pocket when pressure comes and making some big time plays on third down. We just haven’t seen that when they’ve played top 10 passing defenses at any point during his career. But there’s always the chance that things fall into place. It’s certainly happened many times before.

@benjackson0812 Let’s say the Vikings are making space to sign one of the top guards available. How much better would Joe Thuney make the Vikings offense and team as a whole??

Matthew: Not that much versus the cost. When Cousins had the 7th graded O-line in Washington in 2016, he was pressured 32% of the time (his career lowest). Last year, he was pressured 38% of the time. Reduce his pressures by 6% and you get a whopping 13 drop backs over a season.

I also noticed that Thuney’s pass blocking grade went down when Tom Brady left. Probably not a coincidence. If Thuney is the next Will Shields and Ezra Cleveland struggles at left tackle, the pressure rate won’t change much. If the right guard plays like Tom Compton, teams will attack that and the pressure rate won’t change much.

If it was Brandon Scherff, it might be different. He’s so good that he could make everyone better. I’m skeptical if Thuney can have that type of impact.

@gunnerviking If you could be the GM for the Vikings for exactly one free agency signing, which player or position would you sign?

Matthew: If they don’t get good cornerback play, nothing is going to matter so I’d go with someone like Ron Darby.

Pass rush is needed and trying to separate rush vs. coverage is really tough but I think even having decent pressure with bad coverage doesn’t help *that* much. If you have elite pressure it would, not average. The Eagles had the third most sacks and gave up a 102.4 QB rating against. Houston got 11 more sacks than the Vikings and allowed a QB rating against of 109.6.

The Vikings can’t afford to have the poor cornerback play they did last year. They play way too many good receivers in 2021.

@mattverick I still think that Rick will trade back in Rd 1 to pick up 2nd rounder. But, let's say they really want too Tackle talent that is available at 14 and don't want to lose that player. What other options do they have for getting a 2nd round pick?

Matthew: Here’s a draft pick calculator to play around with.

I don’t think it’s all that easy to convince anyone to let you into the second round unless you’re trading down in the first as part of the equation. With the calculator, I was able to get pick No. 57 in exchange for the Vikings’ the 78th, 119th, 125th and 178th picks. That’s a lot.

It might be worth it this year but I’m not sure teams are giving up seconds in a year with so much uncertainty in the draft.

@benchwarmerjim Which Viking would most likely get a line of cereal like Doug Flutie had with Flutie Flakes

Matthew: Cousins already has a cereal called “Snaps.” That aside (and all the potential one-liners that go along with it), how about Jefferson Jacks? Mewele Moore’os?

@RickJamesB4 Do you think the Vikings have interest in trading for Orlando Brown Jr? If so, what do you think a deal looks like both in terms of a trade and a contract?

Matthew: It feels so much like the move the Vikings have made in recent years that I do think they’re making that phone call.

If I’m Baltimore, I’m starting with the 14th overall pick and some fourths. Everyone realizes that the Texans’ price Laremy Tunsil deal was insanity and Tunsil was already fully established as a top left tackle so you have to kinda work backward from there.

I don’t think it’s worth it for a guy who’s going to demand so much money on a contract extension when there are four or five tackles in the first 50 picks who could be starters.

@MikeCastellino do you think Shamar Stephen is next to take a significant pay cut or be released?

Matthew: You’d think he would agree to a restructure. Nobody in the NFL is going to value him as much as the Vikings do.

@IvanCarter My Q: how much rope do Spielman/Zimmer have? Given the investment in the QB, can they afford a 7-9 or 8-8 season with the idea that smart moves would lead to something bigger in '22?

Matthew: Ownership keeps a tight ship, so nobody has implicitly said that everyone’s fired if they don’t make the playoffs in 2021 but putting dots together it’s hard to see them staying the course with one playoff appearance in four years after 2017.

If I were handing over free advice as a person that has no life outside of studying things NFL teams do, I’d say this: Playing this game where the coach and GM are in win-or-get-canned mode every other year isn’t all that productive.

@Skolllllllo Future outlook on LB and Safety lineups? Wondering about futures of Harris and Barr

Matthew: That’s a tough one. Even if Barr stays, it still feels like he’s not going to end his career as a Viking.

Everything is on the table with Harris. I could see him back on a short-term deal, longer deal that lowers his Year 1 cap hit or being gone on Day 1 one of free agency. Zimmer likes his guys and there aren’t too many left if Harris goes.

I’d be very interested in knowing Harrison Smith’s opinion on the state of affairs. We’ve always assumed that he’s going to sign an extension and keep on truckin’ but he’s such a private person that he’s given no indication how he feels about all the guys from the ‘17 team being gone and the entire process of rebuilding the defense. He seemed pretty worn out by the end of last year.

@Jeff_M_Mastro If you know things about renegotiation/release/trade that you can report on - we'd love to hear your rumors.

Matthew: I’m not really a “rumors” reporter.

There’s a lot of different ways you can report on the NFL. You can hunt for scoops by forming relationships within the team or with agents and put out tidbits of information or breaking news or you can take an analysis-based approach. I’m the second one. When I talk to people, I’m trying to make sure I’ve got the right thought process when reporting on different decisions, player evaluations, dynamics within the locker room and coaching staff etc.

@Erik04172824 Do you like AVT more than Darrisaw like I do?

Matthew: You’re referring to Alijah Vera-Tucker. I tend to defer to the people who truly know offensive line play. I’ll be sure to grind some tape with Jeremiah Sirles before we reach draft day.

My feeling on that is Vera-Tucker’s floor is much higher. If he isn’t a home run pick, he’ll be a double. Darrisaw strikes me as someone who will be a home run or strike out. His physical gifts are incredible, so I’d lean toward his upside.

@benjackson0812 Which coach in 2021 besides Zimmer could be on the hot seat if things don’t go well??

Matthew: I’m not sure anyone is on a “hot seat.” I can’t see Zimmer making a chance with Andre Patterson or Adam Zimmer, especially since Mike is calling the defense. Klint Kubiak has a lot of pressure to keep up the level of offensive production they’ve put up the last two years. If the offense doesn’t perform to those standards it would be problematic but that’s not different from any other OC.

@matthewkrier Will Mike Zimmer ever have a successful kicker?

Matthew: He’s had briefly successful kickers. Blair Walsh, Kai Forbath and Dan Bailey had their moments. Kicking is always compared to golf. The funny thing about golf is that Tiger Woods won all the time for a long stretch and everyone else shuffled around. It’s that way with kickers too. There’s Justin Tucker and Matt Prader at the top all the time and everyone else has hot and cold stretches. I’ve never quite bought the idea that Zimmer “ruins” kickers. I think this is just who they are.

@NorthStarsNHL Looks like Mannion might be back as the backup. Besides the prep he assists Cousins with, how much better is he now than year three of Browning? Is Browning more prepared than Sloter was? Interested to check in on this subject and hear your thoughts.

Matthew: It seems they’ve been grooming Browning. He’s not a Sloter type. In practice 2019, Browning had a better grasp for the offense than Sloter. He isn’t as physically gifted as other QBs but he seems to get it. I wonder if they let him battle it out with Nate Stanley and/or Draft Pick X.

@DanielVroman2 is there any sense that there is communication from ownership on preferences in draft vs free agency? It seems like strategy would change based on gm/coach security?

Matthew: We’re really going to have to judge by what they do. The fact that they wanted Reiff back tells us that they aren’t thinking that they’re trying to clear out the old and bring in the new.

I have also wondered if the strategy would be to lean fully into rebuilding through the draft direction if there was no pressure to win in 2021. We’ll see by their approach to free agency, I suppose.

@vikingsjazzfan Make a good case for the Vikings not entering a rebuild mode.

Matthew: Well, they gave Kirk Cousins an extension already so they might as well go for it and see what happens.

The secret is that they’re presently in rebuild mode. They have been dragged there kicking and screaming so it doesn’t really seem that way but take a look at all the inexperienced players on the roster and all the veterans who have left in the last two years.

@jdbondy Ok...will this Vikes off-season be a Brian Griese, AJ Feely, or a Kerry Collins?? don’t really see how they pull a Daunte Culpepper or even a Brad Johnson.

Matthew: I’m not sure how to interpret this exactly. I guess it’ll be the most like Kerry Collins where it will have its moments but ultimately will not take you where you want to go.

@dreski83 With 12 picks in the upcoming draft and financial woes... can anyone convince Spielman to work with half those picks?

We talking about a trade up? Here’s what I know: Those picks are moving. Which way, I’m not sure. This is a team that traded up and took three guys in the first round once, they traded up for Teddy, they traded down about 14 times in the third round a few years ago. They love to trade on draft night. If there’s ever a year to trade down in the first and up into the second, it’s this year. With lots of guys who opted out or had weird years, it stands to reason that the NFL wouldn’t be as sharp in getting the order right.

@swervin_mervin Any chance of some more guys getting restructured to allow for a splash or two in a potentially cheaper and expansive FA market.

Definitely. They’re getting ducks in a row here before the first day of free agency by letting go Reiff and Bailey and restructuring Colquitt. Opens the door to making a run at a few players right off the bat.

I do see mid-tier and bargain guys being around longer into the summer than usual and maybe cheaper but the big names are still going to get paid top dollar. JJ Watt and Dak Prescott showed us that teams have the money for the best players.

@BIG_dannn If no tackle is signed or picked in the draft.. does Cleveland become the most important player this upcoming season for the Vikings?

Either way his development is going to be pretty vital. We’ve seen what happens in recent years what happens when you have a weak link. Even if he stays at right guard and doesn’t take a big step forward like Brian O’Neill did in Year 2, they’re going to end up with the same issues they’ve had since Cousins arrived.

@CoreyHermanson Make sense of the Orlando Brown rumors for me? Wouldn't trading for an LT you still have to pay pretty much admit you don't think much of Ezra Cleveland?

Your instinct on that one is right. It would also reek of desperation because there’s rookie left tackles in the draft who will be there at 14. It’s favorable to draft one and have him cost controlled vs. trading for Brown and paying both him and O’Neill huge deals. That’s why I have a lot of trouble seeing it happening.

@Shea_Carr why isn't there more outrage from the players over the cap situation? Lots of good players just having to take it on the chin right now, it seems. TV contract coming and a "normal" season in 2021...

They negotiated it last July. Most of the focus from media was on protocols and such but they worked it out to spread the shortfall over the next four years. The original agreement actually was going to have the cap at $175 million. Turned out to be $182.5 million.

@JoelDubiel Youre GM for the Vikings. What’s the first thing you do?

I’m trying one season of all-in with Kirk Cousins, using everything I have to jack up the offense with more playmakers and pass protectors. If it didn’t work, then at least we’d know that wasn’t the answer.

@petermtowey Which big QB contract is the most team friendly? As in they get paid more money then we’d know what to do with, but keeps their team competitive.

Assuming we’re not talking rookie deals, Tom Brady had a $25 million cap hit last year. He’s worth, what, twice that? Watson’s only making $15.9 million on the cap next year and Mahomes $24 million. Those deals eventually get worse but the NFL will have its money back.

@andrew_schuba Which stadium serves the best press food?

Green Bay and San Francisco. Our neighbors to the east serve brats at all times during the game and SF has about 50 different options, including various meats, candy, gram crackers. It’s quite a time.

@D79169761 Trade down for Moehrig and Barmore in late first = most Vikings move? How many fourths would it take to get back into the second round?

I’d prefer Barmore just because of positional scarcity. There’s no DTs that are game changers in free agency and this draft is short on interior rushers. I think teams view fourths as much less valuable than a second, so probably a lot of them.

@Donison10 do you see a fit with Dunlap? The obvious need for pass rush and his history with Zim makes it an intriguing option

I like the Dunlap fit. If he gave them 600 snaps, a handful of sacks and a decent pressure rate, he could mix in with Weatherly/Wonnum and whoever else they draft.

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