Friday mailbag: O-line and D-line offseason approach

As Vikings fans wait for a QB decision and free agency, eyes are starting to turn to the draft approach

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, you get a little break from hardcore football over the next week but there’s a lot still on the way. I’ll be at the NFL Combine in less than two weeks and then things really heat up. For now, we speculate. So let’s dive into your questions…

Mark… I realize the Eagles are a very talented team, but why were the Chiefs so bad? Obviously the Eagles werewolves owned the Chief’s O-line, but it also seemed like Mahomes lacked targets. Scheme problems? Did you notice any Chiefs adjustments after the half?

What happened in the Super Bowl was a tale as old as time. We can all think of a bunch of Super Bowls where the same exact script played out. The 2000 Ravens vs. the Giants, the 2013 Broncos losing to the Seahawks, the 2015 Panthers vs. the Broncos, the 2020 Chiefs vs. the Bucs…

If one team is physically outmatched up front and makes mistakes like Mahomes’s interceptions early in the game, there’s no recovering. There is no adjustment for getting your butt whooped up front when you’re losing. The Eagles were able to rush four D-linemen on every play, giving them seven coverage players to guard four or five receiving options. With Travis Kelce looking cooked and Rashee Rice out, the only legitimate weapon that Mahomes had was Xavier Worthy.

The Vikings ran into the exact same thing in the Wild Card round. The Rams had four stars on the D-line versus the Vikings’ one exceptional O-lineman and when the Vikings fell behind because of turnovers, there was nothing that could really be done because they could drop so many coverage players back and force the QB to wait for his receivers to get open.

The NFL playoffs are like high school basketball. If you have a team with one great player, you can win some games but eventually that one player isn’t going to be able to do it all himself when he plays against the school with a bunch of 6-foot-6 guys.

Bill F… Matthew- isn’t it logical the Vikes need to trade some talent to get draft capital? Addison? Van Ginkel? And are Vikings using same scouting staff as past two years?

Getting rid of the good players would not be my preference. This team is about winning now, right? Next year Jordan Addison and Andrew Van Ginkel combine to make up $16.1 million on the cap. That’s pretty good for the combination of a receiver who averages 900 yards per year and an incredibly versatile edge player who had 11.5 sacks.

There’s no way the Vikings can get enough return for either player to make sense. Nobody is giving up a first-round pick for either and there’s no way I’m trading proven players in their primes for second-rounders.

The only argument that anyone could make for trading Addison would be the off-field stuff and maybe you think Van Ginkel is going to regress but trading away veteran players who are in the final years of their contracts like AVG is something you do when you’re tanking, not trying to get back to the chase for the top seed in the NFC.

We gotta get back to thinking about winning, my friends, not rebuilding.

As far as the scouting staff, they made some changes two years ago, I think. I never pay attention to stuff like that because they haven’t shown me all the scouts’ reports for me to have any idea what to do with that information. I know the question is probably you hoping that they fired all the Spielman scouts and whoever was responsible for any 2022 pick so… I’m sure they got rid of the scouts who loved the bad players and hired the ones who love the good players. That’s how it works, right?

Eldon… With how hard it will be to fully rebuild the offensive line is it possible the Vikings will go after a guard and center but keep Brandel on the left side. He seemed to play well with Darrisaw next to him and they might not be able to replace all 3.

Brandel was 34th in PFF grade with Darrisaw next to him and 55th of 58 with Robinson by his side, so you’re not crazy for thinking that, though it was actually his run blocking grade that was much worse, not his pass blocking (65.9 vs. 64.1).

They might have to keep somebody from the interior on the boat because replacing all three is difficult. First they have to analyze which players are actually going to be an upgrade from Brandel, Bradbury and Risner and then how much it’s worth to get those improvements. Trey Smith is going to be way better than either of those guys. Is he $25 million per year vs. $4 million better? Maybe. Smith was top-10 in PFF grade and gave up zero regular season sacks but his QB is a king wizard who threw 64.2% of his passes under 10 yards versus Sam Darnold who threw 54.7% under 10 yards (and even his short passes were not out of his hand as fast).

What does it all mean? Probably that making the massive gains everyone wants will not be an easy task with this offense if it remains the same. That said, the Vikings were 15th in pass blocking and they lost their No. 1 player on the O-line, benched the right guard and had a guy playing left guard for the first time. A solid upgrade would put them into the top 10 with a fully healthy Darrisaw (which is where they were when he got hurt).

Matt D… We’ve talked a lot about improving the short yardage game by adding iOL and RB talent. But we all know KOC loves to pass. Any WRs out there in FA or the draft that could improve that part of the offense with their short area quickness/ YAC ability?

You’re onto something that has my interest this offseason. With respect to the fact Justin Jefferson can do anything/everything, the Vikings pretty much had three of the same type of receiver. All downfield guys, nobody really specializing in yards after catch. Jalen Nailor has long speed but he isn’t a short area quickness guy. The Vikings really didn’t have YAC as part of their game at all. Out of 110 receivers in the NFL with at least 30 targets, the Vikings receivers were 38th, 64th and 69th in yards after catch per reception.

YAC is absolutely a schematic thing but it’s also a skillset. Arizona’s Greg Dortch is an interesting guy for this. He’s a free agent and ranked 5th in YAC. Dyami Brown probably priced himself out of being a cheap option for something like this but he was that type of guy for Washington. I think they view TJ Hockenson is the answer to this but one more option to give them more options would be helpful. I thought it was going to be Brandon Powell after his strong 2023, that just never happened.

Rick C… Explain the defense Flores plays... its a 3-4 but we don't seem to want to get a big NT? Phillips is not a true NT. Why not get a big Casey Hampton type NT and move Phillips to a DE.

Appreciate the Casey Hampton drop. One of my favorite players ever. I’ve talked to Bryant McFadden (former Steeler) about him and all those guys knew that it started with Hampton.

I don’t think the role in Flores’s defense is exactly like the old school Gilbert Brown and Ted Washington type dudes that just plow straight forward into two linemen and hold them there. If you watch Phillips, he’s moving around all over the place, jumping gaps to move blockers with him to create lanes for the linebackers. He explained it to me for an article earlier this year. It’s actually pretty wild how he’s able to do it. They would be a lot more static as a D-line if that one 350-pound dude couldn’t move but defenses used to play that way. It’s really changed a lot over the last decade.

Not to mention that those monster truck DTs are few and far between these days. I used Pro-Football Ref to look this up: Only 12 players that weigh at least 330 pounds made 10+ tackles in 2024. There might be five impact DTs in the entire NFL who are that big. So instead the Vikings got a little more nimble guy who’s 300 pounds and Jonathan Bullard who is really strong and did the best they could.

Brent O… In looking at available Free Agents, it appears that the available interior offensive line help is either a lot more expensive (Trey Smith) or older (Zach Martin, Brandon Scherff) or injury prone, does that make it more likely the draft is most direct path to address that need?

Yes and no. The draft isn’t exactly loaded with guard talent toward the top. Using Brugler’s top 100, the interior linemen rank 18th, 38th, 52nd, 66th, 69th and 83rd.

Forever and always, the best way to get talent is taking guys in the top three rounds, it’s just that the Vikings have so few picks and there’s a lot of risk involved in taking a guard. If you take a DT that needs development, you can play him 400 snaps. If you take a guard that needs development, your quarterback is going to get hit 20 extra times per season because you’re trying to figure out if your investment can play (see: Ingram, Ed).

If they took Tyler Booker 24th, I wouldn’t give them a hard time. We would have to be realistic about whether it could be a huge upgrade right away though because the transition from college DTs to NFL DTs is enormous.

Mark T…Matt, I have done a number of mock drafts online and find that DL is going fast since the Super Bowl. Usually I will pick with number 24 verses trading down because the supply & demand. Generally my top picks are Kenneth Grant or Walter Nolen, but now even they might be gone. What is your take on who the Vikes should pick at #24? OL, DL, RB?

Luckily for the Vikings, if they want a defensive tackle then there will be more available than just Grant and Nolen in the back end of the first round. With the strength of that position in this draft, they could also wait until the third round to see if there’s a potential starter there (I took Darius Alexander from Toledo in the third in my first draft sim).

I’d be surprised if they went with a running back considering DT is now considered a “premium” position and the fact that they have no cornerbacks other than Mekhi Blackmon and Dwight McGlothern. I’m looking at the cornerbacks as a weak unit in the draft, which could play in the Vikings favor. They might be able to trade down and still get one of the top guys of the board.

More than almost any other year that I’ve covered the team, the options are wiiiiide open for the Vikings in the first round. That means there will be a lot of scenarios to talk about.

Jason… What’s the prospect where if they get to you at 24 there is no way you are trading back?

I don’t think that guy exists unless you’re talking about a shocking fall from one of the elite prospects (which did happen last year with Dallas Turner). Maybe the Michigan corner Will Johnson? My very early impression of this draft from reading guys like Brugler and Jeremiah is that there is going to be a lot of really similarly rated players between picks 20 and 50. The only problem for the Vikings is that might cause teams to not want to trade up.

Garrett P… Is it me or is EVERYONE have the same ideas about building the trenches now? I think it was you and some other guys talking about this three years ago and the Vikings just didn’t or couldn’t address this. Now all teams I read up on are talking about copying the Eagles path to glory.

The good news is that nobody in the NFL has ever not had the same ideas about building in the trenches. Forgive the double negative there. Everyone has always wanted to have five amazing O-linemen and eight amazing D-linemen and just smoosh all the other teams. The whole “Eagles model” thing is what everyone has to do (including me) after champion is crowned.

There’s only so much talent, only so many dollars and only so many draft picks. It’s hard to stack. Think about the Vikings. We all think that they haven’t done jack squat to fix the line, right? Funny because since 2018 they have spent two first-round picks and three second-round picks on the O-line. Want a DT in free agency? Well, the Vikings coulda got Christian Wilkins but signed AVG and Greenard instead. They would have loved to get all three but they had a lot of dead cap money.

The odds of the Eagles hitting on as many picks as they had (even based on their previous record) is probably about the same as winning the lottery on back-to-back days. They did it, so they get to be the model. The best I can say is that having Kirk Cousins off the books should help the Vikings close the gap but matching what Philly did is almost impossible.

Foster… You've mentioned the tag-and-trade as a plausible option, and perhaps more appropriate than letting Darnold test the market. O'Connell recently said that Sam "earn the right to be a free agent." Do you think that this is a genuine comment, and if so, does that imply that the franchise tag for any purpose is off the table?

You also earn the right to make $41 million on the franchise tag. Even with Taco Bell prices going up these days, that’s still a lot of dollar, dollar bills. The only way the franchise tag would be off the table would be if no team was willing to trade the Vikings anything better than what they will get in terms of compensation. I don’t see how that would be possible with so many teams needing a quarterback.

I advised this after the snafu with the Lions writer at the NFL Honors and I’ll say it again: Don’t try to look into KOC quotes about McCarthy and Darnold. I promise you he’s thought about the message he wants to convey in public about the situation and he’s not telling anybody what they’re doing. We went through this with Kirk last year. He’s not showing his cards.

Thomas H… I was surprised to see that Nick Muse is on the Philadelphia roster. Did that occur during or after the season ended? Do you think Johnny Mundt is likely to be on the team again?

That’s Super Bowl champion Nick Muse, to you. Once the season is over, the team has to sign guys to “futures” deals or they can go elsewhere. It’s actually hilarious that a team going to the Super Bowl can just nab someone else’s practice squad guy but they aren’t on the active roster so they’re free game. He was the last hope for the 2022 draft.

I know the coaching staff loves Mundt and they don’t have too many other guys in the pipeline so he might be back. That’s fine. It’s not like there’s a bunch of great TE3s hanging around.

Matt J… Is the offensive line woes in the interior scheme related. It seems like the PFF grades took a nose dive on the interior line at the end of the season. Better personal seems needed but is it also possible those positions tired out due to predictable play calling. What can KOC do better to alleviate the pressure

KOC had to walk the line between using Sam Darnold’s arm talent to its maximum and dealing with the pressure. For the most part, they did an awesome job at that. But over the final six weeks, Darnold was 31st of 39 QBs on the percentage of throws between 0-9 yards and 25th on throws behind the line of scrimmage.

I can’t exactly blame that strategy because in the middle of the season the same group of O-linemen scored above average in pass blocking for five straight games. The turning point was against Arizona when Jonathan Gannon discovered how much they struggled on blitzes from the second level. After that it wasn’t the same. They also faced tougher D-lines in the final stretch like Seattle and Detroit.

I think they just lacked a counter punch. They couldn’t flip a switch and suddenly dominate on the ground or start getting a bunch of YAC because they didn’t have the horses. It’s something both KOC and the front office have to think about a lot this offseason.

Howard R… Matthew, as ever - many thanks for all your great work on our behalf. Please can ask you for some help re the off-season key dates, especially as the Vikings have cap space (and might add to some by adroit restructuring). For example, I read that the Jets can save $14million cap space in 2025 by designating Rodgers as a post 1st June cut. What are the dates to try and tag/trade Darnold, agree terms with Harrison Smith, start talking to free agents and why is 1st June a significant date? Do you think the plan should be to maximize cap space for 2025 and invest in free agents this year or take a more nuanced approach ? Finally, is there any sign of the flores case against NFL being resolved? Very best.

Appreciate it, Howard! The Vikings have to decide whether to tag Darnold by March 5. They can talk to their own free agents whenever. They could extend Harry tomorrow if he wants.

I don’t know why the NFL picked June 1 but here’s an explainer on it. The short version is this from Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap: “Prior to June 1 any player removed from a teams roster, either by release or trade, will have all their remaining salary cap allocations accelerate into the current League Year…after June 1 that “dead money” charge now splits between two seasons. Once released the team only needs to account for the current years prorated money in their [current] salary cap accounting.”

I would guess they use June 1 because the offseason is over at that point, so teams can’t use the June 1 designation to solve all their cap problems before free agency. Someone can explain the “why” behind it in the comments if they know more about that.

The Vikings’ approach to free agency for the next 3-5 years should be to chase top talent. Do whatever they need to do with the cap to make it work. They are trying to win a Super Bowl while Justin Jefferson is in his prime and JJ McCarthy is not expensive. Go big.

There isn’t any sign of Flores’s case being resolved, so far as I can tell. There was a ruling a while back that basically said it’s not getting thrown out.

Stanley H… Isn't it interesting that no one was writing about two black quarterbacks in the Super Bowl? We have come a long way since Doug Williams, "How long have you been a black quarterback?" was the query to the Redskins' Doug Williams. That required a two-part answer, and Williams replied: "I've been a quarterback since high school. I've always been black."

Think about how recent it was that the ways of thinking about the QB position were still pervasive. Lamar Jackson’s draft freefall was less than a decade ago. Bill Polian loudly said he should play running back or receiver. Nobody thought he could throw despite pretty clear evidence in college that he played in a pro system and made a lot of NFL throws. They questioned his personality when he didn’t participate in certain Combine drills, which all the QBs do now. And by Year 2 the dude was the MVP of the league. After that, they did the same thing to Jalen Hurts in 2020.

Those two guys specifically owning the stupid NFL executives who didn’t think running QBs could win really broke down all the walls that the NFL held up about black QBs for so long. We will always talk about and deeply respect Williams, Cunningham, McNair, Moon etc. as the trailblazers but it wasn’t until Lamar, Mahomes, Hurts forced the league’s hands that it became a best-man-for-the-job position. Now all the kids who are just starting to play the game are trying to play it like these guys and it’s only going to get better and better because everyone gets a chance at QB, not just certain types of people.

Florian K… Reinforcing the IOL and DT positions will be all the rage in the copy cat NFL this year. Many teams will be chasing the Eagles blueprint and competing for those scant few difference making players available in both the draft and free agency. So, guessing they're not going get all the pieces they want what ways can KOC adapt his offensive philosophy to minimize or counteract the emphasis on the interior rush? What kind of zig can he do to offset the zag everyone else is chasing? Staying ahead of the curve, innovation, seems to be the smart thing to do.

How much do we want Kevin O’Connell to change? The biggest overreaction to the way the season ended was that KOC was wrong in his approach to the offensive philosophy. They took a quarterback who was 39th of 39 in QB rating among guys over 1,000 passes since 2018 and made him a top 10 quarterback and now KOC is supposed to make big changes? (I know this isn’t your question specifically, more about the broader reaction).

There is no easy button to beating a team that has a killer four-man rush. The Eagles were No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt against the 9th in rushing yards allowed. Similarly, look at the Rams down the stretch as their young players came into their own. That doesn’t mean KOC shouldn’t change anything, I just think they need better blocking, better running scheme, more explosive backfield, better/more screen passes and at least one guy who can get yards after catch. I wouldn’t change much fundamentally.

And some of that will probably come naturally if they move to McCarthy. He throws the ball short/intermediate in the middle of the field better than Darnold from what I saw in camp last year.

It’s always going to be about the players though. I laughed at this:

Adam… Mailbag/fans only pod question: The Vikings can’t match the Eagles roster build in one off season (especially with our poor past drafting). Given that, should we double down on the aggression on both sides on the ball to try to do something different? So investing all resources in pass protecting OL, WR etc for the explosive passing game and a game wrecking DT + maybe even Garrett for the D - while scrimping and making do with the cheap vets in secondary and RB, using in-house options like Jackson at safety etc.