Friday Mailbag: NFL Combine edition

What do we know about the Vikings plans now that the brass has talked in Indy?

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! I’m back from the Combine and ready to dive into your questions. (The reason I come back on Thursday rather than staying for the events is that I want to listen to Daniel Jeremiah talk about the prospects. I get more out of that than being there). Anyway, we learned a lot during the few days in Indy, so let’s dive in….

Florian K… It seems free agents have maybe three main concerns going into their decisions on where to sign, the money, the chance to win and the state of the organization structure as a whole from, say, solidly run to dysfunction junction. Players often say it isn't about the money but, yeah sure. Care to take a pie chart guess on how much those factors are truly important to them? Are there other factors they balance that we plebs might not think about? Does it also depend on the where the player is in terms of tier? As in stars can pick and chose while backups are just happy to get a contract?

It’s always going to be different for every person. The money is going to rule the day in the vast majority of instances because there are so few opportunities to hit the jackpot in football. Most good players get one or two chances for a big contract and then they’re past their prime so you have to take full advantage while you can. Otherwise I would guess that the team’s chances to win and the reputation of the franchise are more like tie breakers.

If you’re Jonathan Greenard last year and you have the Vikings and Jaguars offering similar money, it’s a no-brainer. The fact that the Vikings can basically win all of these types of tie breakers because of their head coach, ownership and locker room (as demonstrated in the NFLPA survey) is a pretty significant edge. But that doesn’t mean if they had been many millions less in their offer that he would have signed here.

Bradley P…. What did you hear about the steam on a Darnold trade? Will a quarterback who’s 10 years older than him really garner more in return?

It sounded to me like one of the Vikings’ main goals at the Combine was to find out whether anybody would be willing to “jump the line” and make a trade for Darnold on the franchise tag. The Stafford vs. Darnold thing isn’t exactly apples to apples. If you are trying to save your job (i.e. Giants) or get a bumbling franchise bag into playoff contention immediately, Stafford feels like a safer choice. If you are looking for a guy who could potentially be a multi-year option (Titans? Steelers?) then it would make sense to check in about Darnold. The fact that the Rams could just decide to stick with Stafford raises the price, whereas the Vikings are more likely in a spot to just move on to McCarthy with the hopes of getting anything back in return.

Paul… With all the Vikings quarterback talk going on, Brett Rypien seems to be the forgotten man. Does the organization think he's capable of being the first backup? Presumably to JJ McCarthy.

At this point we can pretty definitively say that KOC is always going to have a bunch of quarterbacks in the mix. I’m sure they have some reason for liking Rypien and also want to have a true veteran backup with a lot more playing experience to go along with JJ McCarthy. It’s not a stretch to guess that KOC was hoping when they brought in Daniel Jones that he wants to pull a 2023 49ers Darnold thing this year. If he has better offers, it would be really surprising if they didn’t have somebody who has started a lot of games as QB2.

David S…My thoughts are the vikings are going to strike in FA at OL and the Secondary no matter whether they bring Murphy or not. I also think DL, CB, and RB will be priorities in the draft.

No disagreements here. I could see them taking a first round (or trade back and early second round) guard if the right guy like Tyler Booker is there but otherwise trying to pick somebody in the mid rounds to start right away is always tough. Guard is a position that usually affordable in free agency but now that Trey Smith has been franchise tagged and the league has taken notice that guards are out here getting smashed in the playoffs, anybody who can play is likely to get overpaid. The Vikings probably just have to bite the bullet there and make the highest offers.

I’d prefer they chase DT in the draft because there are only a couple FAs that move the needle and there’s reports that Osa Odighizuwa is negotiating a new deal with Dallas. The good thing about a stacked RB class is that they can likely wait until the third round to take one. If they don’t love a corner, I would guess they have to mostly address that position in free agency.

So if they went with two free agent guards, two free agent corners, re-signed Cam Bynum, then they could draft DT and RB and maybe (just for me) toss in a slot receiver who can get open quickly.

Ben… Troy Vincent saying putting down flags from NY is non starter when it comes to replay reviews has to be a troll job right?? What sane person looks at what happened with refs missing calls this season and say “aww shucks he just made a mistake and we have to live with it”

I don’t like the idea of somebody watching on video and tossing flags from New York unless it’s an egregious personal foul (i.e. a facemask that nearly rips off Sam Darnold’s head) but I do think every penalty should be subject to challenge and review from someone that isn’t in the stadium.

CJ M…On a 1-10 scale of “FOOTBALL” for people “in the League” events… where does the Combine rank? Unrelated (maybe related): The broader coverage largely feels like an alumni mixer for a fraternity that is previewing potential pledges.

It’s a 10 out of 10 for the football folks. It’s the great football get-together. Like a week-long football-y carnival of meeting with football players, talking to football agents, having football meetings with vendors, seeing old football-y friends. That’s why they want to keep it in Indy. It’s such an easy downtown area to walk around and meet up in places. If they moved it to L.A. and the whole thing was spread out, it wouldn’t be the same.

Matt D… Any late round LBs who can cover? Seems like they need a solid cover guy to pair with Pace when Cashman misses time, which he is wont to do.

I think linebacker is the position where you can most likely draft in the third to fifth round and develop a guy who has one particular strong suit like coverage. Am I capable of telling you right now which Day 3 linebacker prospects might be able to cover? No sir, I am not. That would be total guesswork. I do think they need to seek some depth there.

Thomas H… Sorry if I missed this, but has Kwesi’s contract been extended yet?

I was not given any information at the Combine to suggest that he’s been extended nor have I seen any other reporters say they heard anything about it. But they aren’t obligated to reveal contract statuses to us and there’s no OverTheCap.com for GM contracts.

Pickle Enjoyer…. I have a bonkers idea for a Sam trade (that's dependent on Stafford going somewhere other than Vegas): Vikings trade Darnold and the 24th to the Raiders for the 6th. That way, Vegas gets a QB who doesn't stink and they still pick in the first and the Vikes can either take a true difference maker or trade down and gain more value. I know this is Madden-level lunacy, but HUMOR ME!

I can never underestimate the lunacy of a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2002 but I don’t think it would make much sense for the Raiders to move out of a draft pick that high. I estimate Darnold’s value as being an early third-round pick and change, which is worth (by the draft value chart) somewhere in the range of moving up from No. 24 to about No. 16. Definitely not No. 6 unless they were adding more to the mix.

They don’t have to make this overly complicated. Tag Darnold and trade him to the Raiders for the 68th and 144th overall picks and call it a day.

David S… even if Harrison Smith does or does not come come back we are going to need to retain Bynum or bring someone else in because Metellus true position in this defense need to be as a rover and not a true free or strong safety. Theo Jackson has to be one option but, again, with out without Smith which is short term at best to me Bynum is key or an experienced FA safety who can replace him. Don't think alot of people are thinking about that and why I think there may be multiple secondary pieces retained or replaced in Free Agency with the additional cap and the ability to be able to extend it out future years with it heavily projected to regularly increase and scale up rapidly.

I think Metellus could play Harrison Smith’s spot because that’s been a roving type thing for many years. The idea of keeping Bynum is fine because he’s a high-IQ, high-character player with a great health record but there’s also a ton of safety options if they need to dip into that spot. I know it’s hard to look at Theo Jackson as an option when he’s played so little football but I believe the team has a high opinion of him.

You might be right about the challenge of replacing multiple secondary pieces, though they did it last year with Griffin and Gilmore being brought into the mix and they adapted fine.

GM…. I don’t think enough talk is being made about how fortunate we were (as well as the rest of the NFC North) to have played the AFC South this year. Is it just bad luck that along with the Packers and Lions, we were one-and-done this year in the playoffs after the three of us combined for a .784 winning percentage during the regular season? I feel we’re a good team that seems to be headed in the right direction but in looking at the teams we play next year, I don’t think anyone should be shocked if we struggle to get to double-digit wins next year,

We haven’t even started the offseason yet and the Vikings are already winning five fewer games, huh.

Certainly the schedule is going to be harder for everyone next year unless there’s a ton of QB injuries from their opponents but I have no idea how we can even begin to project what the 2025 Vikings are going to be when they don’t even have a QB decision made yet and we have no idea how they’re going to address the OL, secondary, DT etc.

Nobody thinks that repeating a 14-win season is a reasonable expectation because those types of seasons are so difficult to repeat and there was an inordinate number of bad teams in the NFL in 2024. I’d still say that this team is in its window to win and has an opportunity in the offseason to build a team that’s a serious contender. That’s the standard we should hold them to.

Brad L…What was your biggest surprise at the combine? From the outside Bynum appears to be a great “locker room”, good for team chemistry. How much do they weigh that in resigning guys like Bynum, Jones or others? Or does talent just trump everything?

The biggest surprise was two NFL insiders fighting each other at Starbucks. The other was Trey Smith being franchise tagged. Nobody thought that was going to happen.

Bradley P…Matthew, do you think we’ll see tons of teams following the Eagles front office blueprint of massively backloading deals for 2-3 years down the road?

I don’t think it’s going to inspire teams that haven’t been doing it to suddenly start doing it. For smart teams, the amount of cap shenanigans really depends on where the team stands in its window to win and its cap health. Last year the Vikings pushed contracts out into the future because they knew McCarthy was on the way and they would be entering a phase where they were going to be cap healthy. They won’t have to do that as much this year if Darnold leaves unless they sign a boat load of players. But if they bring back Darnold, then they are all in on 2025 and they would move every dollar down the road that they could.

Ownership plays a huge role because it requires putting money up front and not all owners want to do that.

After going to the Super Bowl in 2022, the Eagles understood that they had a chance in the following few seasons to get back with the foundation of their roster but they also knew they would need to pay Jalen Hurts, so they did everything under the sun to make it work just like the Saints famously did with Drew Brees’s final years. It will catch up to them but not for a while and they have a ring to show for it.

Paul V… Matthew, what’s your favorite Gene Hackman movie? (And what is your favorite Gene Hackman movie if you can’t say Hoosiers or The Replacements?)

I can’t tell you how many times I watched the Christopher Reeves and Gene Hackman Superman movie when I was growing up. How many actors can be unbelievably good in so many roles as hero’s or villains?

Also loved him in Unforgiven, The Firm, The French Connection… and obviously Welcome to Mooseport.

Gene is one of the GOATs, man. I’m not a movie buff but he was one of my favorite actors of all time.

Bill B…

How about the Vikings , in light of their history, hiring the best OL scout or scouts in the league. The Wilfs , thankfully, are not afraid to spend. Any thoughts on why this hasn’t happened?

As a follow up, what kind of $$$ does a scout in the NFL earn ?

It hasn’t happened because… how would anyone know who was the best OL scouts in the league? It isn’t like there’s a scoreboard and scout free agency. Normally scouts aren’t bouncing from team to team all that often. If you have a good one, you know it in house and move that person up your ladder internally.

Also the hit rate on scouting isn’t exactly how they evaluate their scouts. They aren’t saying “love” or “hate” at the bottom of the report. They’re gathering as much information as they can on a player and trying to provide the sharpest observations about what type of player they’re going to be and what they’ll need to succeed. The Vikings scout who watched Lewis Cine saw a guy who ran a 4.37 and dominated the NCAA title game. I’m sure that scout was wowed. They couldn’t predict he would break his leg or that he’d struggle with the NFL environment.

As far as money goes, I’ve never asked. I get the impression that it ranges from being similar to your local Applebees manager at the lowest level to your lawyer at the highest level.

Do NfL scouts specialize? Are the hiring processes similar to those for coaches? I.e. to hire a scout away from another team must a promotion occur?

I don’t believe so. They have contracts. When those contracts are up, they can seek other employment. I’m sure if a scout had a contract and another team wanted to make them a top executive then their franchise would let them go but I have never heard that there are rules in place for the scouts. I could be wrong.

Brad P… Bear with me here, but why not trade Darnold for Stafford. We get a great quarterback for a couple of years, and all the while he mentors JJ who gets the odd snap now and then? Yeah, there’s the money thing but one can dream, can’t one?

If there was some world where Stafford was only going to play here for one year and it was affordable, I’d be all about that. But that scenario doesn’t exist. If they’re move on from Darnold, it’s McCarthy time.

And I’ve always felt that if KOC believes that McCarthy is ready to go, then it’s pedal to the metal.

Ron R…From what you've seen from JJ McCarthy which has been minimal does JJ compare to Sam in arm strength down field and mobility.

Raw arm strength in terms of velocity isn’t crazy different, which is a huge compliment to McCarthy because Darnold has one of the best arms I’ve ever seen. Touch and feel on the deep ball isn’t particularly close right now but McCarthy can improve that as he goes along. McCarthy is quicker than Darnold, though I don’t see him having a massive impact as a runner over what we saw from Darnold last year.

I think the biggest difference is how they see the field. McCarthy looks like he can see the middle of the field really well and that might open more slant or underneath in-breaking stuff whereas Darnold had a better eye for throwing downfield with great anticipation. You’ll probably see McCarthy get sacked less, use his checkdown more and even out the likely gap in explosives that way.

McCarthy is a really talented QB. Way more physically gifted than the draft folks made it sound when they were comparing him to game managers because of the way Michigan played.

Eldon…A fun question to throw out if you had to franchise tag one of the frequent guests on purple Insider which person would you tag?

I would have to tag Sirles. No offense to all my other great guests, but finding a former O-lineman who can articulate the game like Sirles and who has a natural enthusiasm and great sense for broadcasting is rare. I can replace other journalists haha.

David W….Do we not give Kwesi enough credit for getting them into the cap space situation they are now? Every comment section has people harping on the 2022 draft but do we not give him enough credit for finding value in the margins? Isn’t that his job, for the most part?

Comment sections are a brutal way to judge the majority opinion. The biggest turning point in this franchise becoming a serious contender again was Kwesi pitching a succession plan from the old and expensive players (Thielen, Cook, Kendricks etc) and Kirk Cousins to the Wilfs that allowed them to draft a QB in a year that was stacked with great QB prospects and be cap healthy when they young QB arrived. Then convincing the Wilfs to stick to the plan after a 13-win 2022 season. That is not to be overlooked in a league of GMs who would believe their own outlier results and crazy owners.

Dan…If McCarthy is for real, the offense is close to a tipping point, right? They have a big weakness (IOL) that they need to fix if they want to be great. It seems like they have the resources to do it, and the players are out there to make this happen. If they run out the same three guys next year, it'll be sad. I hope it's just smoke when KOC says "The replace word, I don’t know if I would necessarily use that." Are they building a potential top 12 offense or a potential top 3 offense? Only one of those sounds like a Superbowl contender. This off-season's availability of free agent guards to go with DT and RB in the draft tells me they have the opportunity to address all of the weaknesses and still run out a respectable secondary. Am I wrong to expect this?

KOC is always going to show respect for his players even if he wants them replaced so I wouldn’t look into that quote. I guarantee that he agrees with you that the final step of this thing is creating an interior that can dictate rather than survive. It smacked everyone right in the face during the Rams game and that’s why he said after the game that they have to get better there. I’m certain that they will be players for every big interior lineman this offseason, whether that’s in the draft or free agency.

I do think there are enough available players in free agency and quality enough prospects in the back half of the first round that they can address all of their needs. The question is how they go about it. Does it mean overpaying to keep their own guys? Is it a second-tier free agency type approach and look for a lot of good deals or would they try to throw big dollars at all the top players even if that means going crazy over the top? Plus, what’s the competition like for these free agents? I expect 15-20 teams to be asking about guards and wanting to draft pass rushing DTs. It will be a challenge but they have the resources to run out a more complete roster in 2025.