Friday mailbag: Let's get to the draft already

Vikings fans ask about why QB would be considered and which receivers are the best fit for the Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Let’s get right into your questions…

@PP_26_No1 Explain why we should draft Willis like you advocate in ur recent podcasts? We have Kirk under contract for 2 years (no trade clause!!).This erases every advantage of a rookie QB... I would understand this move in 2023 but not now. What am I missing? Other than that: great content

Yeah, I get where you’re coming from. Here’s my line of thinking on this: If they draft Willis, he could sit for a year and give the Vikings a full season to assess whether he’s ready to become their starter in 2023. If that’s the case, they can take trade offers and see if Cousins will accept a deal somewhere. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses accept a move when they aren’t wanted anymore. But Cousins’s contract is also a parachute if Willis isn’t good or isn’t ready. I’m not so concerned about wasting one year of his rookie deal because of how poorly rookies usually play anyway and the fact that Willis won’t be ready in Year 1. If Cousins said he absolutely would not waive the no-trade clause and they had to play it out through 2023, I don’t think that’s the worst thing in the world because you can have 2024 and 2025 with Willis being paid almost nothing and if he’s a star, you give him an extension to maintain a low cap hit for 2026. Both Allen and Mahomes’s first expensive years are in their sixth seasons. That’s a lot of space to still get the most out of a rookie deal still. And remember, if the guy turns out to be amazing, you won’t care at all about paying him. Willis is the guy in this draft with the best upside toward being amazing, so take that swing. If it fails, they can swing again.

@jeffintokyo1 One question for the mailbag... So what do athletes do in the offseason workout program? Are any kinds of drills done? Or is it just general athletic training/diet maintenance? Film study?

I’ve never asked all the details of it but it seems like they get in the weight room and have meetings, presumably about the bones of the scheme. The NFL describes this as “phase one” and “activities limited to strength and conditioning, meetings, and physical rehabilitation only.” Not exactly the most exciting stuff. They can start running plays in OTAs and minicamp. Here’s a rundown of how the offseason program works.

@BIG_dannn I know 12 personnel isn’t the team future but I feel having no real back up to Irv is a mistake we don’t know how he will respond after the injury or that he will play a full season. Is Mundt and Davidson it? Or do you think a rookie TE round 3 pick coming this way or a FA vet?

It’s probably a sign that we’ll be a seen a lot of three-receiver sets. The Rams’ No. 2 tight end finished with four catches last year, so I expect that the days of 12 personnel in Minnesota might be gone. To your point, it might be tough to woo any free agent tight end with receiving chops to an offense that doesn’t plan to use that type of player. Agents are pretty good at identifying the teams where their clients will have an opportunity to play and this doesn’t look like one for TE2. I do think TE becomes an area of interest in Round 3, not just due to depth but because Smith Jr.’s future isn’t certain. We still don’t know for sure what he will do in the TE1 role and he’s a free agent after this season.

@Jordan_Fisk Do you think there's any chance Barr comes back? The Smith signing probably significantly lowers the chances. Also do you think there's any realistic chances of signing JC Tretter? I could be wrong but I feel like we have enough money for one of the two.

I would be very surprised if he returned. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talked about that in his press conference and didn’t really leave the door open for it happening. I don’t think it was the Za’Darius Smith signing that indicated Barr’s time in Minnesota was over, rather adding Jordan Hicks. That’s the role Barr has played for his entire career. At one point, bringing back Barr was worth considering because it would have possibly helped a little with the cap to extend him rather than have the entire dead cap hit just sitting there, but we’ve gone past the time where that was an option. I do think there’s a realistic chance of signing Tretter. Once the draft is over, nobody is getting paid what they are worth. Sheldon Richardson signing for $3.6 million last year is a good example of that. So if nobody is handing out big dollars, Minnesota would be one of the few places that would offer a starting job at center that late in the free agency game.

@jasnyder123 When can teams sign players without potentially losing comp picks (excluding players that were cut)? Is that after the draft? With all the void years flying around now, do teams lose potential comp picks if a player is released if void years are remaining?

Comp pick formulas make my brain overheat. Teams don’t get a comp pick for players signed after the draft. On the void years thing, I believe if a player wasn’t an unrestricted free agent, there’s no comp pick.

@Farm_Fields204 Which one of the following Vikings weaknesses from last season, if improved, would make the biggest difference: A. Clock management B. Better 3rd down efficiency on offense C. Giving up TD's on nearly a third of all opponents drives in the last 4 mins of each half

I’d go with B. Out of the top 12 teams on third downs, 10 made the playoffs and the other two were Los Angeles and Indy, who were both good teams but botched landing playoff spots in the final week. Your defense can’t melt down if you are ahead by two touchdowns, right? How many of those end-of-game defensive meltdowns happen if the offense just puts the other team away? We often separate offense and defense like they have nothing to do with each other. The Vikings were on the field for the second most defensive plays in the NFL last year. Long drives created by successful running against them played a role in that, so did three-and-outs on offense. The Vikings were 27th in plays per drive.

@au_mschmidt Does it make sense to extend Irv Smith if he has good season? He’s undersized, not great at blocking. If he is a slow 3rd ‘receiver,’ why not go with actual receiver? What would be the cost?

I think it does, yes. The price of a good tight end isn’t all that expensive relative to other positions. The top guy in the league is only making $15 million. If Irv is good but not Kittle/Kelce good, he probably gets around $10 million per year. That’s reasonable for a mismatch weapon. As far as his blocking, he’s graded as an average run blocker the last two years, which is fine. Being dominate would be great i.e. Gronk but it’s more about not being a disaster.

@headcoach21 Which do you think is more pointless the NFL adding the 7th seed to the playoffs or the NBA play in tournament??

Most of the playoff expansions are pointless. Going to 68 teams for the NCAA Tournament is probably the most preposterous. Just by the sheer randomness of each sport, the NBA’s play-in is less likely to turn into a legit playoff contender. The NBA is the least random of all the leagues. If an NFL team got suddenly healthy or lucky, it’s plausible they could make a run. I can’t see a play-in team ever reaching a finals in the NBA.

@AlNotino If you were setting betting odds, what would your current over-under be for the number of years until the Vikings win a Super Bowl?

I’ll go with 14.5 years. They’ve come close in every decade, so this gives them enough time to maybe get a couple shots at it but not so much time that it’s basically forever. I also tried to pick a number that would make the most optimistic and pessimistic fans both go, “No way!”

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Because it's draft szn... I think there's such a thing as draft root beer, but is there a draft Dr pepper?

I spent several minutes googling what “draft root beer” was supposed to be and it turns out the answer is… a marketing ploy. As a Diet Dr. Pepper purist, I won’t succumb to any of their attempts to lead me astray from my true soda love. Zero sugar? No. Cherry? Outta here with that.

@SrEconomy Shouldn’t we rank TE’s with Inline skills, avg. speed and athleticism, much higher than the mismatched big, receiving TE? Or is the big receiving TE just a band aid due to a team maybe not having explosive WR’s?

Hm. I’m not sure about that. I think it depends on the player. Receiving tight ends like Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts are averaging between 12-15 yards per catch and some of these guys are pushing 70% completion percentage. Seems from the numbers like the mismatch receiving TE is pretty darn effective. If you could have that with great blocking ability, sure, then you’re talking about an Andrews, Kittle or Gronk who are the superstars. Those would seem to be more rare. It’s like saying, would you prefer a defensive end who gets 10 sacks and can’t stop the run or 10 sacks and can stop the run? Give me the run stuffer but there’s only like a half dozen like that. Usually the inline guys end up with 9.2 yards per catch and nobody’s afraid of them.

@heavydirtyskol Star Tribune reported that the Dalvin Cook case was supposed to be heard at the end of March. Did it get moved again? What’s the status?

There was supposed to be a Zoom hearing on April 11 but I haven’t seen any information about what came of that.

@JesseCa88568330 Would you like a Drake London at 12. Or a trade back and Treylon Burks in the 20s with an added 2nd rd pick this year better?

I’d take Burks and an additional second-round pick without question. It seems like the gap between the best projected receiver and the sixth or eighth best isn’t much these days. Legit superstars have come from the late first or second in recent years like Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf. I’d be willing to roll the dice at not getting the highest rated guy to land another second-round pick, especially considering the number of needs the Vikings are trying to fill in this draft.

@dcaron28 more likely scenario: stay at 12, trade down, trade up

Trade down should be the favorite here, then staying, then trading up. If they trade up, it has to be to take Malik Willis and nobody else. There’s far too many good players at their positions of need that could be available at 12 for them to trade up for anything except a QB. Same logic applies to trading down. If someone is desperate, like the Jets were last year for some reason, make that move and get a fairly close prospect in quality.

@reggiepeterson Bigger upside: Ant or Justin Jefferson

It has to be Edwards because a true franchise NBA player is like having an elite quarterback. Just by proxy of having him, you’re an instant contender. As we’ve seen from Jefferson, that’s not that case at receiver. I also think that Jefferson is who he’s going to be — which is a top-five receiver. His job is to maintain this success. Edwards still has a ways to grow into his 20s.

@JTMNskol Free agents you would love to see the Vikings sign that aren’t Defensive ends or CBs

The obvious answer is JC Tretter because he can impact their pass pro right away but I’ll give you two that might be an interesting idea and we’d be really shocked: Odell Beckham Jr. or Jarvis Landry. I know Beckham is coming off surgery but most guys come back the same after ACLs. If he could play 8-10 games in the second half of the season at a reasonable price or if Landry could come in and be the pure slot guy and quick game receiver to go along with Jefferson and Thielen, it would allow KJ Osborn to fit into a depth/rotational role and make their passing game that much more versatile. Look, if you’re trying to win this year, then really try to win. If it doesn’t work out, trade the guy at the deadline.

@vf10281 With PFF coming out with an article putting Hicks and Tretter as fits, which one would you choose if we could only sign one?

Tretter. It’s clear to everyone that Akiem Hicks is a great player but he hasn’t been healthy recently. Last year they got burned by not having Hunter/Pierce/Griffen together much. It would feel like the same kind of thing with Hunter/Smith/Hicks. If they’re healthy it’s amazing but what are the chances they’re healthy at the same time. Not that I’d criticize a 2021 Sheldon Richardson-like move for Hicks.

@mnjoker0015 Timberwolves or Grizzlies?

Memphis is probably going to win but the Wolves should look at Memphis and say…this can be us soon.

@BaseballNorm what could Kwesi do in the draft that would make you lose your mind and produce a viral must listen to podcast after?

Two things that come to mind are: Drafting a running back or passing on Malik Willis if he’s there at No. 12. One of those things seems possible.

@_RO28 Let’s get crazy and assume that Vikings’ management sees the light on the benefit of taking a 1st round WR, of which they may have the pick of the crop. Can you please pie chart the top WRs, not in terms of who’s best, but who’s best for Minnesota? I think I’ve settled on Jameson Williams because of the way that he’d compliment JJefferson’s skill set, but I’d like to hear your take.

I’m not quite sure how to pie chart this one but I would say Jameson Williams is No. 1 for me and then Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Drake London. Williams is on another level with his absolute blazing speed. There’s YAC potential there like nobody else. I slightly like how Olave fits over Wilson and there’s a gap between them and London because I feel a little less confident in a receiver known for contested catches. There’s a sizeable gap between those four and the next group but one guy I kinda like is George Pickens. Maybe he goes under the radar and ends up being a steal.

@vikingsjazzfan What is the realistic best and worst case scenarios for the season? I can’t see more than 9 wins, but I am a life long Vikings fan so optimism isn’t my thing.

The best case is that Aaron Rodgers’s cleanses make him weak and wacked out on clarified butter and the Packers have a surprising down year and the Vikings win the division at something like 11-6, then they go into the playoffs, win a game and give themselves a chance to get into the NFC Championship. I don’t know that I’d bet on all that but it’s a realistic best scenario if everyone is healthy and Kevin O’Connell does really well right away. Worst case is nine wins and missing the playoffs. That would take them out of contention completely for a top two QB in next year’s draft and they’d have to trade up for either the third or fourth best prospect if the QB draft is really that good. Alternative best-case scenario is that this entire thing implodes, none of the offseason moves work and they go 4-13 and draft a QB in the top three.

@NicholasM_1993 How long until WRs wearing 80s numbers is cool again?

I hadn’t realized how few receivers were wearing 80s numbers anymore. Only two of the top 25 receivers in catches last year had numbers in the 80s. Crazy. How about this: If the receivers are going to wear single digits and teens, why not let defensive linemen wear 80s numbers again?

@heavydirtyskol I keep hear takes like, “The Vikings have historically done ____ in the draft, so look for them to do that this year.” Is that an appropriate take with a new GM and HC in town? I get the scouting staff is the same, but it seems a bit over the top.

You’re correct that we can throw the history out the window. Whether it’s strategy with trades or the types of players they are looking for, the GM and coaching staff being completely new makes a huge difference. I think Adofo-Mensah is going to get the coaches what they’re looking for. I’m not sure there are a ton of “analytics draft hacks” that we will be able to pick out in the first year but O’Connell and Donatell are going to have types of players that they believe fit best in their schemes and that’s likely to determine the direction.

@HeyItsMattyFez Jefferson didn’t want to specify his goals for the season, but if you were a receiver with his talent/work ethic working with a coach who came from an offense with receiver usage like Kupp, what would your expectations or goals realistically look like?

If I was a receiver with his talent, I’d be building a swimming pool for all my money like Scrooge McDuck. Mike Zimmer certainly gave Jefferson a goal to work toward this year by not letting him get the single-season receiving record. But here’s the thing: If they distribute the ball to other receivers more and have a better offense and win more, none of the fantasy stats will matter. I don’t think we should assess Jefferson’s success and fit in the offense based on a catches/yards/targets as much as whether he’s driving the offense from the opening possession.

@jvangelder Will we ever see a rb/fb like Mike alstott again? Dude scored so many tds for his size. Peyton hillis maybe similar size/style but only lasted like 3 years

I don’t think we’ll see a backfield like Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn again with both guys on the field at once but Derrick Henry is a souped-up version of those guys. AJ Dillon too. There will always be giant dudes who run over people. Everything that’s old always comes around again in football. I would have told you there wouldn’t be another Lorenzo Neal or Sam Gash and then the Ravens got Patrick Ricard.

@SamRoot43 Please react to the fact that the player currently in the Vikings' TE/OL room* who had the most 2021 NFL receiving yards is Garrett Bradbury. *Assuming you consider fullbacks to be completely distinct from tight ends

I guess my reaction would be that you can say the same thing with almost every position and that’s why this roster is fragile. The thing that can change that is if some of the recent draft picks start to develop. If Zach Davidson emerges in camp or Ihmir Smith-Marsette takes a step forward or any of the linebackers show big improvement or the corners or D-linemen develop, there will be more of a safety net. Over the last two years, that hasn’t happened and every time a starter went down, the drop off was massive. It looks like it’s going to be the same way in 2022 but we won’t know until camp whether players are showing improvement. (I do think they’ll add another tight end, by the way).

@gonefishing58 Could you see the Vikings starting off a little slow because the players have to learn new systems on offense and defense? As a result hampering their already borderline chances of making the playoffs.

I’d be interested in seeing research on whether changing defensive schemes does come along with a learning curve or if these guys are so good with X’s and O’s these days that they can adapt on the fly. I would tend to lean toward a curve but the determining factor might end up being the schedule. Last year they started out against Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray. If they open against Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa, it could be different.

@_Born2Early_ Does Adrian Peterson have a legit case as a top 5 running back?

He’s a Hall of Famer but not top five. Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk and Thurman Thomas are on another level from the rest. To me Peterson goes in the second tier of all-time greats like Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Ricky Williams, Edgerrin James, Marshawn Lynch etc. He was as exciting as anybody and did legendary things but had some downsides to his game.

Jeff via email Why draft unproven rookies when you can use that draft capital on young veterans with discernable upside. Put more emphasis on scouting other rosters & practice squads for these players. If you need a QB you go all-in (using current & future draft capital) to move up to get him. Stop risking draft capital on lottery tickets.

Two reasons you can’t often trade draft capital for young veterans: 1) Teams don’t trade away young good players 2) You have to pay them a lot of money. A team might be able to do that occasionally if they can afford a guy that another team can’t pay i.e. Tyreek Hill/Dolphins but usually if a team drafts a player and develops him into a star, they are making him a centerpiece to their roster and not giving him away unless another team offers absolutely absurd return.

@chasehanson77 Could you discuss how you think James cook could fit in the offense and if he'd be worth a 3rd or 4th round flyer

I don’t see much reason for this team to pick a running back, even if he’s a terrific prospect. They already have the next guy in line after Dalvin Cook in Kene Nwangwu and the key to running backs is that they step in right away and have success. Draft them only when you’re going to make them your No. 1 guy.

@onerealeazye If Bradbury had been drafted by a team with a mobile quarterback how much better would his pff grades/rankings be if at all? Roll outs and PA passes would seem to be much better for his skill set.

It wouldn’t have changed his PFF grades but it would have changed how much his weak pass blocking impacted the offense. They have tried hard to design rollouts and play-actions and Cousins is very good at throwing on the move under those circumstances but he doesn’t escape interior pressure. Once the block is lost, he’s getting hurried, sacked or hit and there’s no way around it. If that was Kyler Murray, the center could lose badly 10 times a game and he’d just run away and still make plays. That’s why the Vikings should have built out a monster interior O-line for Cousins from the start.

@PunkRockTim Should be be concerned about our LB depth? After our starters, looks kind of thin.

Yes. I thought Blake Lynch showed some flashes last year but if he has to play every snap for six games, that might be tough. I’m interested to see where Chazz Surratt stands but there’s no proven player like Eric Wilson or Nick Vigil. It goes back to the theme of relying on developing players to fill the depth spots. Once upon a time, the Vikings had some of those guys hit. Diggs, Thielen, Hunter, Harris…they weren’t sure things and emerged into key players. There simply hasn’t been much of that in recent years.

@sk0lachev You’re in charge of a new NFL expansion team…what you naming it

The Washington Commanders? Hayoooooo.

I’ve always enjoyed team names that are random animals. How about the Duluth Dachshunds? Mankato Mastadors?

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