Friday Mailbag: Let the offseason program begin

Rookie minicamp is kinda football

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everybody. It feels like somebody pulled the emergency brake on football, doesn’t it? Draft season was so intense that the last week or so felt like falling off a football-y cliff. Well, it’s time for the offseason program to start so ramp it back up. Let’s dive into your questions…

TheDude…. Hi Matthew.. A few questions.... For Rookie Camp and OTAs.... The basic takeaway is we can tell quickly who is bad/just is not making progress but we really can see who is looking good until pads come on in training camp? After all the people you have spoken to about JJ (QB) what is your pie chart for his next 5 years going from total bust to top 5 QB?

It’s really hard to tell who is looking good during rookie camp and OTAs. Minicamp (early June) they do more intense stuff and you can tell if a receiver is standing out or if a cornerback is making a lot of plays. My approach is usually just to get a feel for how comfortable players look and who’s being used in which spots.

This has gotten much harder under O’Connell than it was with Zimmer. Old school Mike liked intense practices. They would run a lot of 11-on-11 stuff and be pretty physical. It’s much more 7-on-7 type stuff with KOC.

To your point, the third week of training camp is normally where we start to see the separation. I know the Vikings value highly the joint practices so that’s when we will really get a feel for who’s thriving and struggling. Until then, I’ll mostly focus on observations and interesting things that get said by the team about their progress.

As far as the pie chart, I’d go with 10% chance he’s elite, 20% above average, 30% average, 20% below average, 20% not good. That’s about the normal distribution of QBs in the draft and I have no idea where he’s going to land on that spectrum.

CB… Where are we at with a Justin Jefferson signing, and when do you think we might hear something

We aren’t anywhere different than we have been. I still fully expect them to get a deal done with him. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah confirmed that they were talking before the draft and put talks on hold until after the draft. The way he talked, referencing them wanting to have a whole week belong to Jefferson when he signs, sounded pretty confident that they are going to get there. If I had to fancy a guess, I would say they’ll get it done right before mandatory minicamp. That way they can have him there for the most important days of the spring and then the entire training camp. I don’t think Jefferson wants to miss camp and I don’t think the Vikings want to have him miss time with new quarterbacks.

Randy… Hi Matthew! I'm still excited for the draft from two weeks ago. I really appreciate your coverage! Looking at the later rounds, do you see either (or both) of the linemen (Rouse and Jurgens) making an impact this season? Each seems to fit needs for the team and I like what they did in college. Also, your take on the kicker, Reichard? I think it was a great pick to fill a need that can be underrated in the draft. Why do other analysts think he was the 2nd or 3rd best kicker in the draft?

There haven’t been too many times I can remember a guy being picked that late in the draft and being asked to jump right into the mix so I would expect both players to end up being depth on the O-line this year. In fact, if either can be trusted as a direct backup that’s a win. Rouse is pretty much a pure swing tackle and Jurgens might have potential to some day start at guard in the best-case scenario.

I’m not generally a fan of picking kickers in the draft. Every study that has ever looked at kicking can’t find any evidence that drafted kickers are outperforming undrafted kickers. I will say, however, that Reichard has a massive college sample size, which could help them better predict what he’s going to be in the NFL. I do like that Reichard has played in a ton of huge games under a lot of pressure.

I couldn’t tell you why analysts think one guy is better than the other. I mean, how in the world would they even know what to look for other than just kicks attempted vs. kicks made? How many draft analysts put any time or effort into the kickers or have any idea about kicking technique? Lotta made up stuff out there in the draft, I tell ya.

Mike T…Hey Matthew, after reading the substack article about JJ's development since he was an elementary school kid, I was reminded of Todd Marinovich. Being groomed for a career like this is pretty unusual. Do you predict we're going to see a different result?

That was a pretty unique case that also involved very serious drug addiction. In college Todd got suspended and arrested for cocaine and then it got worse in the NFL. That was also a really, really long time ago. Every quarterback that makes the NFL now has been working with private QB coaches since they were 12 years old. It’s the way of the world. Nobody is throwing a ball through a tire in the backyard and getting called up to the big leagues. McCarthy appears to have a very genuine enthusiasm for the game and in particular seems like he loves leading a group of teammates. If there were any concerns about the way he’s put together mentally then he wouldn’t have been a top 10 draft pick. Marinovich was more of an arm-of-gold type of guy

Mark S….Hi Matthew. If the Vikings release Shaq Griffin do they get their compensatory pick back?

My understanding is that used to be a rule but it isn’t anymore. Also Ben Goessling reported that they never believed they were getting two third-round comp picks anyway, which is why they signed Griffin. I’m aware that some people on the internet disagree with that but I’m not sure what I’m supposed to say since they don’t release the formula and they don’t release the list until next year.

Kyle S….How long until Will Reichard breaks our hearts?

Well, he has to make the team first. Let’s start there and then see what happens.

john OG…I wonder what strategy the Vikings use now around roster building. Considering their lack of draft capital next year. Do you think they stop trying to thread the needle or do we now see a shift towards loading up on valuable picks. I understand they have a lot of cap space, but in the end drafting often, near the top of the draft (Ala - Eagles, Bears, Lions) is the best way to add elite talent.

They really don’t have a way to load up on valuable picks because you only get those by selling off talent. I have a hard time seeing anyone on this roster being valuable at the trade deadline except maybe Aaron Jones. The strategy starts with the fact they have most of the valuable positions filled with players who will be here for years to come. They need to spend next year in free agency to get the final pieces (presumably interior OL, DL and CB) and then add veteran depth players and hope guys develop. The Andre Carter II, Jaquelin Roy, Jay Ward types are going to have to grow into serviceable players or they are going to be left a few cards short of a full deck.

Jeff…. Matthew - you talked about this a few times now so I hope you don't mind quickly revisiting it; giving up too much draft capital for Dallas Turner. My take the "point system" for evaluating trades is that they only apply to the picks at the time of the trade & not after the player(s) have been chosen. The context is completely different. Prime example is Randy Moss. How many points was the draft pick the Vikings used to acquire him worth on the day before the draft? Now how many was it worth after Game 1 of the season? Now, outcome based thinking shouldn't be the determining factor here so I look at the value of the prospect on draft day. If you were not concerned about the character questions surrounding Randy, you just got the top WR prospect in the draft.

Yeah, I’m pretty exhausted of the entire Dallas Turner trade value discussion, to tell you the truth. Turner’s potential upside is so high that they felt it was worth giving up and I think that’s a viable thought process. The problem with draft charts is definitely that they can’t factor the quality of player. The 17th pick is not the same every single year. The team drafting 17th isn’t the same every year. We have to work those things into the analysis.

After rookie minicamp starts, Turner is another guy on the team to me, not a draft value chart debate.

Ben….Name a player that you think could have a breakout season for the Vikings this year.

I’ll go with Mekhi Blackmon. He showed some flashes last year and had a pretty solid overall first season. I think we’ll see him on the field a lot more.

Miranda C…I've seen the teams projected win rates, what are your thoughts on the where the Vikings will land for next year's draft? What team will have the first overall pick?

If I’m guessing right now, I’d say the Vikings are picking between 14th-16th next year. The No. 1 pick is an interesting discussion. The Patriots have to be a favorite for that honor. They have such a bad roster. If Will Levis is bad, Tennessee has a good chance. Maybe the wheels completely come off the Giants or Bo Nix completely bombs with the Broncos. That’s a wide open race.

Jason…What does your best case for Addison in year two look like?