By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Kirk’s back, just like we all expected when the season started so… off we go…
Brad L… What is our contractual obligation to Cousins beyond this year? How hot is KOC’s seat if Kirk doesn’t turn things around?
Basically the Vikings owe Kirk $10 million guaranteed and they will need to release him before the fifth day of the league year or $80 million guaranteed kicks in. Obviously they’re not going to let that $80 million kick in. So they could work out an extension with him and bake the $10 million into it or just have to eat that as part of the cost for acquiring him.
I think if we look at all the boxes that would need to be checked in order to satisfy the “hot seat” label, there are a lot of them that are clicked.
Hasn’t won a playoff game. Failure(s) at QB. His side of the ball is flailing. Ownership that’s not really famous for their patience with coaches.
The Wilfs have not tolerated missing the playoffs in the past. If this thing goes from 6-0 to missing the postseason and the offense finishes 28th, I think we know there’s a good chance that they will make a change. To me, that’s the definition of “hot seat.”
It’s obviously an inflamatory term and I’ve usually been on the side of KOC’s win-loss record, his management of the building, his game management (usually) and I thought the adjustments that were made during the 11-game win streak were impressive even if it wasn’t flashy.
But there’s no defense for what we’ve seen lately and there’s no defense for letting a 6-0 season fall apart. If that happens, it’s realistic to think the Wilfs could react.
I think the question and discussions are justified after what we saw against Buffalo because that sure looked like a calamity was on the way. It’s very possible that getting Kirk back gets everything on track and we see the KOC and Vikings offense that we’re used to seeing and that conversation goes away.
Matthew B… How will interior of the OL hold up for Cousins this time around?
I’m in a weird place with the O-line because they’ve graded well (9th) in pass protection by PFF and I think that they’ve held up alright in that area since Donovan Jackson went down. Per PFF, Joe Huber has given up six QB pressures this year and has a 63.3 grade. That’s managable. Blake Brandel is 12th in PFF pass blocking grade. Obviously Will Fries is the one who has been the weakness.
Still it’s going better than past years with Kirk where they had some guys who should never be on the field.
They really won’t be facing top pass rushes much in the coming weeks. By PFF pass rush grade, Green Bay is 21st, San Francisco 27th (Buckner helps), Atlanta is really good (4th) and Carolina is 24th.
Plus Kirk has been great this year at avoiding sacks. He’s at the top of the NFL in pressure-to-sack ratio. However, he’s 25th in grade when pressured and has five INTs under pressure this year.
It’ll be something to watch.
Robert S…. Will Kirk be smart enough to protect KOC from himself by taking check downs early and often instead of incessantly hunting explosives and getting demolished?
I felt like Cousins got really good at that in KOC’s offense in 2023. That’s when he was using TJ Hockenson the most. He’s thrown almost 60% of passes under 10 yards but his intermediate passing has been outstanding and his average time to throw on passes between 10-19 yards is 2.8 seconds — that looks like he’s getting the ball out.
If you’re asking whether it’s a serious concern that KOC’s offense has constantly had the issue of getting QBs hit and sacked and wondering if Kirk struggles more with that problem here than in Las Vegas, then my answer is: Yes, absolutely.
It doesn’t seem to be just the idea of “hunting explosives,” it’s also that there seems to be the idea of waiting until the very last second for an opportunity to present itself. Kirk took a ton of hits waiting to get throws into those windows and so did Darnold. We’ve seen a deer-in-the-headlights look from McCarthy/Murray/Wentz sitting in the pocket too.
Kirk knows that he can’t take hits, so I’m guessing he’s going to do anything and everything within the scheme to make sure that ball is going somewhere quick.
Michael… How would you characterize KOC’s strengths? He is referred to as the ‘QB whisperer’, play call genius, locker room galvanizer… it seems as if he and the org in general does not have the ability to DEVELOP QB talenT - meaning whatever pathway post 2026 must include established veteran and not a younger QB to be taught and cultivated. Your thoughts?
The QB whisperer thing is not real. Nobody is a QB whisperer. Kyle Shanahan drafted Trey Lance. Bruce Arians’ book was called “QB Whisperer” and he never mentions Jameis Winston. There’s no such thing. Everyone looks way smarter when your QB is good than when you have a bunch of guys who other teams didn’t want and the 5th QB taken in the draft who wasn’t ready to play.
That’s not to excuse what’s happened but my take on this stuff was shaped by watching coach after coach get blamed for the Buffalo Bills being bad with Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor and then suddenly they were great with Josh Allen. Players not the plays — usually.
What’s happening is actually to same as with Mike Zimmer only the opposite side of the ball. When Zim didn’t have his bunch of All-Stars, he was a lot less of a defensive wizard.
O’Connell is clearly an elite coach when it comes to culture and communication with his players. He manages the franchise as well as anyone. You have no way of understanding how many people need something from the head coach at all times and how much goes into every week within an organization. Many, many coaches crack.
Aside from the game against Detroit, I think he’s also been an elite in-game manager. The timeouts, clock, fourth down decisions… even clutch play calling. They’ve had a lot of games with final drives and big moments where they’ve come through even during the offensive drought. Against Chicago, Miami, Indy and even Detroit they had big late-game drives. Not to mention that it was KOC’s idea to hire Brian Flores and they’ve worked together extremely well.
Look, football is such a bizarre sport sometimes that you never really know where something’s going. I thought for sure that Zimmer was cooked when the 2019 Vikings were going to New Orleans and then he pulled out an unbelievable gameplan and saved his job.
KOC has done a lot of winning here so I’ve always felt that you better thinkg looooong and hard before you fire him. There’s a lot of coaches out there who can’t handle the job and drag franchises down into the depths. That has not at all been the case with KOC.
Douglas J M… Kind of a broad question but what is your theory as to why the run game isn’t better. Is it scheme? Personnel? Basically the same question since 2022
PFF has them 25th in run blocking grade, so that’s a start. Losing Donovan Jackson was enormous. Not having that left side to lean on is tough. I’m also not sure that they’ve found an identity. Per PFF, Jordan Mason has 27 zone runs and 17 gap runs this year. Aaron Jones has 63 zone and 50 gap. It seems like they haven’t really figured out what works and they’re mashing the keyboard a little bit trying to find something.
I’ll also toss this out there: They lost CJ Ham. When he was in the game last year, they ran really well. It’s easy to forget that he was an elite IQ player and was tough as heck. It helped a lot in the run game for Mason to be able to follow him. Dalvin Cook used to say something like, “I just run where CJ goes.” Max Bredeson is just a young player and doesn’t have that veteran element to his game.
So it’s kinda a combination of everything. Also a warning that offseason narratives are oftentimes best-case scenarios and don’t guarantee it’s going to work.
Jason… Talk me into this not being like Brad Johnson’s return.
This newsletter will never besmirch the great name of Brad Johnson. However, it’s true that 2006 did not go the way he wanted. I guess I’d look at the receivers from the ‘06 team as part of the issue there. Travis Taylor, Troy Williamson, Billy McMullen, Jermaine Wiggins — not exactly Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson there.
I think the way Cousins has been playing is important to remember. He’s PFF’s 14th best QB and ranks 13th in passer rating. Even if there are some struggles when it comes to reacclimating himself to the offense, he should be able to get them going to some extent. The ‘06 defense was also OK but it wasn’t No. 1 in the NFL like this one is.
But there’s always a chance it doesn’t work. Any time you’re hoping that the next QB who came from another team is the guy who’s going to get you there, it carries along risk.
Jonathon M… I know you’re not the legendary Erving Goffman, however what are your thoughts reviewing impression management on two QBs alter egos with Cousins’s “Kirko Chainz” and McCarthy’s “NINE”? Do you think there was an authenticity gap with NINE trying to create this intense and dangerous persona vs Kirko Chainz who is really just a goofy suburban mini-driving dad having fun? Seems to me that people generally enjoy confidence more when it’s accompanied by self-awareness.
Did Erving Goffman play slot receiver for the Bucs in 1993?
I’m not really sure how to analyze these guys’ personalities. Everything I saw from JJ McCarthy was that energetic kid who had never been punched in the mouth and hardened by the ways of the pros. He brought a very college-y approach but his joy for the game and energy was authentic. I only took that as a sign of the maturation process that was needed for him. I didn’t think it was because he’s phony. I know that teammates genuinely wanted him to succeed and I’m certain that if he’d won and played well that it would have been received much differently by the internet.
Cousins’ arc is interesting because he was called fake and phony early on and there was the “he just works here” thing that was a vibe for a while during the late Zim era. It was only when KOC empowered him to be himself and take a leadership role with a different version of the roster that we saw his personality start to become a strength.
Still, if he wins, nobody will care if he drives a minivan or a Porche or a scooter.
Oakdog… Is KOCs offense too good? This is kind of a troll question, but hear me out. In looking at some of the comments on Wentz’s performance it is almost like he had too many open people and could not decide which of the open people to pick.....
There seems to be a huge debate between Dan Orlovsky/Kurt Warner and Anthony Barr/Quincy Avery going on about whether receivers were open or not.
I’ll be honest: I thought there have been a lot of plays this year that went sideways for the quarterback where I wasn’t sure what he was supposed to do differently and then there have been a lot of plays where I thought… yeah, that throw is right there.
Monday night was a mix. There are plays we’ve seen work in KOC’s offense 100 times that weren’t executed and open receivers where the ball flew over them and then there were some times where everyone was pretty well covered. At the same time, if someone is one-on-one, the QB often has to “throw them open.”
I was thinking about KOC’s offense as I was watching a Kyle Shanahan interview today where he was talking about how he used to use 21 personnel and play-action stuff and said it was “easy” the way that it would cause problems for the defense. Then he said that the league figured out answers and they had to do some different things.
There’s a lot of ebbs and flows to this game and it’s on the play caller/designer to realize when the league has figured out some answers to stuff.
I’m not totally sure if they have with KOC’s offense or it has just been the QBs. There’s probably evidence on both sides of that.
Jimmy B… Matt gives us your thoughts on a realistic transition period Captain Kirk. With the next several games being what will probably determine the team’s playoff seating if everything goes well. 5 of the remaining games are against teams that could give the Vikings a hard time. if the Vikings only win 4 of those games what do you think the coaching staff will look like next season?
I’m a big believer in KOC as a motivator and a culture creator. But I’m losing my blind trust on game day. To me KOC is in a lose , lose situation. He has changed his philosophy on passing so much. Was this a directive from the new GM or the Ownership group? Regardless it is not working!! GM Nolan just might be giving KOC enough rope to hang himself with. But I truly hope he uses the rope to pull the team up. General thought?
The most realistic expectations that I can come up with is that he does enough for them to get to 11 wins and eventually in the playoffs the weaknesses will be too much, whether it’s his, the run game, the O-line etc.
If they only win four games and go 10-7, they can still be in the playoffs. If that happens, then I have a tough time seeing a change at the top unless things get toxic somehow. But then again I always keep in mind when Zach Lowe said that we should never, ever think that we have things figured out until the playoffs are over because they change everything. That proved to be true with Sam Darnold.
The thing I’d like to point out about your comment is that Nolan Teasley does not decide what happens with Kevin O’Connell. The Wilfs are the only ones who make that determination. I’m sure they will discuss it with Teasley but the GM is not in a position to “give KOC enough rope” or anything like that. The GM’s job is to win with whatever HC the Wilfs decide on.
Broadly, I think O’Connell is a really, really, really good head football coach and that fans always want the coach fired in football any time there’s a rocky patch. At the same time, “patience isn’t infinite.” If they collapse and it’s two straight years of totally disastrous offense despite having good weapons, it would be impossible to say that he wasn’t given a fair shot.
When you look around the league and see Malik Willis and a tanking Dolphins team outperforming the Vikings in passing EPA, what are you supposed to do with that? And if it doesn’t work with Kirk, it’s really going to stand out that his performance with the Raiders was very good.
Robert S… I am cautiously optimistic about Kirk’s return. This season has been one tease after another - the offense will work once Kyler returns, the offense will work when Jefferson returns, the offense will get better when Mason returns, etc. It would be asking a lot for things to work without glitches in the Green Bay game with only two days of practice.
Concerned about pressure up the middle with Will Fries having a tough season. Didn’t KOC roll Kirk out more than he has done with recent QBs? On the pod you guessed that the Vikings would pass ~26 times, I hope that means we are running well enough to get keep the time of possession close and not a bunch of three and outs.
It’s really been like that since 2024. McCarthy starts out with a big win over Chicago and then gets hurt and then Wentz plays well and then he gets hurt and McCarthy comes back and plays well and then he struggles and then folks get excited about Max Brosmer and that didn’t work out and on and on.
I think that it had a chance with Murray but they had to play a certain way and over the last two games he started they really did not play Kyler Murray football. I saw a stat that he was dead last in terms of throwing to his first read in the NFL. That tracks. He never seemed to have confidence in what he was supposed to be seeing.
In terms of rolling out, yes, they did a good amount of the bootleg stuff and play-action in 2023. He was the 8th highest graded play-action passer by PFF and was third in percentage of drop-backs where he used play-action.
That’s Kirk’s history. He’s always been great as a play-action passer — even Jalen Ramsey pointed it out in an interview one time.
Even Murray was performing well with play-action passing. It’s KOC’s best stuff. They just gotta put him in positions to do it.
CMBoourns… What do you think KoC has to do for the rest of the year to keep his job? (Or if easier, what could happen to have KOC lose his job?)
Feels like getting a proven qb in Kirk was Teasley’s way of making sure we know if the offense continues to flounder, it’s not on the guy under center.
Just win, baby.
I really don’t like saying, “if this happens, he’s fired but if THIS happens then he’s not fired.” That’s how we ended up with two more senseless years of Mike Zimmer.
They should decide at the end of the year whether they feel like this head coach and his staff, process, leadership, offense, development, relationship with the GM etc. is the best path to go forward with. They should look at the totality of KOC’s time here and make the call about whether they think it translates to future success.
Again, Teasley is not making sure of anything. He’s not making the decision on whether to keep O’Connell. Teasley was simply doing the absolute best he could to give his team a chance to compete in the NFC race. That’s his job. He doesn’t hire or fire coaches.
IceColdNorth… I’m curious to see how the Packers adjust their defense given the Vikings’ addition of Cousins (e.g., double-covering Jefferson all game?). With that thought in mind, fill in the blank: The Vikings’ addition of Cousins at QB means ____________ will experience the biggest statistical improvement in his average game stats in Sunday’s upcoming game against the Packers.
One thing that I was impressed by last week was that Jonathan Gannon used a ton of different guys to rush Drake Maye. There were 12 different defenders who rushed the passer at least five times. Safety Evan Williams in particularly really jumped out as being a great blitzer.
I’m guessing that they’ll throw as many different looks at Kirk as possible and ask: Do you have the answers?
The most obvious answer is Justin Jefferson but I think Jordan Addison has gotten lost in the Jefferson conversations. With Kirk, he was crushing it in 2023. I remember Kirk saying, “we nailed that draft pick.” He loves Addison.
Brent K…. Matthew, living in the flat circle of the Vikings quarterback world is exasperating! I can’t help but compare the Vikings situation to the Bears. Both hired new GMs in 2021 and embarked on a Super Bowl quest. One team (Bears) tanked, got the #1 pick and drafted Caleb Banks (could have had Drake Maye instead). They have a playoff win and what looks like a multi-year Super Bowl window. The other team (Vikings) won every game they could, built a great defense, and has won 17 more regular season games in that time span. But no playoff wins, desperation moves for a one season Super Bowl shot, and an uncertain future.
Is this proof positive that a team needs to tank to get a top QB or develop one in the background like Green Bay to open up a multi-year Super Bowl window? I mean what are we doing here? Selling hope for a season is not building a Super Bowl contender.
If we think about some of the teams that have gone through a total rebuild in recent years… the Bears, Lions, Patriots and Texans have had it work out pretty well. The Bengals and Jaguars have No. 1 overall pick QBs. The Giants have been down for a while. We can’t forget that the Eagles and Seahawks both had multiple top-10 picks on their Super Bowl rosters for one reason or another.
But Seattle never tanked. They just decided on a reset when they moved off Russell Wilson and then went on an insane heater with their drafting and got the right OC/QB combo at the right time.
Back when PFF had some great data scientists, they did a study on this and found that it was easier to get from the bottom to the top than the middle to the top. I think we can see why. It’s so hard to get a QB when you’re drafting 23rd.
Brent M… Hey Matthew, What are your best case and worst case scenarios for Cousins 2.0?
IMO, I felt the move to get Cousins (best QB option) was the bare minimum and giving up a 3 seems fair. However, I am concerned that without also improving the OL/Run Game, this might be just applying lipstick on a pig. My best case is coming in 2nd in Div, winning1-2 games in playoffs, depending on matchups. Worst case is falling to last place in Div, but still making playoffs.
The best-case is probably playing in the Divisional Round as a 12-win team. After that is a little pie in the sky. The worst-case scenario is that he struggles to get back into it and runs out of gas as the season goes along, has some bad games that end up costing them. It’s such a tiny sample size that if he has a cold streak, it might cost them the season.
It shouldn’t be lipstick on a pig. If the offense goes from 30th in passing EPA to 18th in EPA, that’s worth around 50 points. If that happens, it might be a top five in-season trade of all time in terms of value if not the most valuable trade ever.
But I’m with you in terms of having some missing pieces. I lean toward the O-line being good enough to get the job done in pass protection and they have the running back to get 4.5 yards per carry. It just has to get going. I would have liked to have seen an addition to the RB room but I’m not sure if there were a lot of opportunities at guard outside of Quenton Nelson.
Brent K….I think KOC needs to win a playoff game or he will (and probably should) get fired. He runs the offense. The defense and ST are top notch. It will be hard for KOC to say the team just needs a different OC. Plus, he was a major part of letting Darnold and McCarthy both go. Teasley has no personal stake in KOC, so he will give the Wilfs his own view of the situation. So KOC will be feeling the pressure. Your thoughts?
I have to admit, it’s worn me down a bit to answer “KOC fired” questions every week in a season where they have been winning. They’re 6-2 right now and there’s an entire second half of the season left. Is he under a lot of pressure? Yes. When it’s his passing game and when the Darnold/McCarthy things have gone the way that they’ve gone, there’s always the possibility that it comes apart and they make a change. I would just like to see what happens first.
There’s so many scenarios that we can’t possibly account for them all. If they go 12-5 and lose 27-24 on a last-second field goal, then you can the coach? That wouldn’t make any sense.
I don’t have any disagreement with critiques of an offense that’s 30th in passing EPA and just put that product out on the field on Monday night but I have no idea how to project where this is going or what the owners will be thinking at the end of the road.