Friday Mailbag: It's QB decision season

Vikings fans have lots of questions about the team's path at quarterback

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Alright, who’s ready for Vikings-Lions? Anybody? Well, not based on the Friday Mailbag questions so let’s dive right into QB Of The Future talk…

Jim… With Jon Krawczynski saying the Vikings are likely to re-sign Cousins what is the likelihood that the Vikings go void year crazy again with contracts in another attempt to win now?

Yeah. That’s all about structure. Some of the cap hits from veteran quarterbacks this year would surprise you. Matthew Stafford, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers were all $20 million or less. If a team believes it’s in a winning window, it’s not that hard to keep the cap hits in a reasonable place for a year or two. The Saints and Bucs did it with Brees and Brady. So if the Vikings believe that they can win a Super Bowl in the next two years, then they could figure out a way to keep Cousins’ number low enough to sign other players.

Doing that comes at a serious price long term though. The Bucs were on the hook this year for $35 million for Tom Brady. Ryan Tannehill had the second highest cap hit in the league. There are seven QBs with cap hits scheduled over $45 million in 2024. As always, the bill eventually comes due.

In my mind this team is not close enough to a Super Bowl to sacrifice their future to go all-in right now. I could see them ending up just like the Geno Smith Seahawks in good-not-great land even if they try to spend and stock up this team.

Ben… Who’s a QB that could go in the first round that has serious red flags??

Every quarterback has some type of concern. Jayden Daniels had a really high pressure-to-sack ratio. When opponents got pressure on him he took sacks twice as often as Michael Penix Jr. and it has been a bad sign in the past for young QBs when they take a lot of sacks. Penix Jr. has the injuries, Bo Nix has a small sample size of success with a really amazing offense that had dudes wide open all the time. JJ McCarthy doesn’t have a rocket arm and only threw 314 passes this year.

When we look at the successful QBs in the NFL, they all had concerns. Pat Mahomes’ footwork and college-y offense, Josh Allen’s accuracy, CJ Stroud’s playmaking, Joe Burrow’s age and supporting cast etc. That’s the nature of the beast with prospects.

SOCIALorDIRTY… Do you anticipate any changes to the offensive coaching staff? I recall Thomas Brown interviewed for the original OC spot and he will presumably be available after Carolina's season ends. Maybe a new run game coordinator is in order?

Yeah, their RBs coach Curtis Modkins has a good history of working with running backs in the past but something is not working. Over the last two years the Vikings are 28th in total rushing yards, 27th in yards per attempt and 20th in rushing touchdowns. That makes everything harder on the quarterback. I think it’s part of the reason the offense was so volatile even with Cousins in there. There was no other answer if something was off in the pass game. Remember in 2019 when they ran like 10 times in a row for a touchdown against the Cowboys? Passing is always going to win and should be the No. 1 priority but running sure makes life easier.

Anyway, to your actual question, I’m not sure. Coaching staffs change every year and they might decided to bring someone else in. The rest of the positions should probably stay set though. The line had a good year, they have the best receivers coach in the game and

Brian… The backup quarterback rollercoaster is real. However, it's always said that the best coaches adjust to make the most of the talent they have. All the screenshots of open receivers don't mean much if you're calling route combinations your quarterback lacks the intellect to read or the arm to reach. Does KOC have a bit of '16 Norv Turner in him? 2023 has fallen victim to the coaster, but I hope he takes a hard look in the mirror this offseason and learns from it.

Here’s my question: If I told you that when Kirk went down they would win three of seven games and most of those losses would be in the final moments, would you have thought that was about the best they could have possibly done?

Let’s have a look at where passing games rank from teams with backup QBs for at least half the season by Expected Points Added:

— Jets 32nd

— Giants 29th

— Browns 28th

— Cardinals 27th

— Raiders 22nd

— Titans 21st

— Colts 19th

— Vikings 16th

We could throw the Bengals in here too. They are 17th. That’s right, zero teams with unhealthy QBs ranked in the top half of the league in passing EPA.

Does that mean they absolutely nailed it? Of course not. The screen game was a disaster. The run game was ineffective. Some of the late-game decisions turned out to be costly. They passed downfield way too much rather than playing field position ball with the way Flores’ defense was playing. The Dobbs thing will always kinda be weird that he could be really good for three games and then be QB3.

But if we are assigning percentages that caused the offense to slide, it’s 90% Kirk getting hurt and 10% all this stuff at absolute most.

Wade… Please, PLEASE tell me that the Vikes aren’t bringing Kirk back! I don’t think I can take another season on this ride. Having a QB who’s good enough to compete but too flawed to win a championship is just... purgatory.

I can’t tell you that with any degree of certainty. I don’t know what they’re going to do. Vikings fans are in a really weird place with Kirk. From the start everyone wanted him to succeed and then over the last two years he endeared himself more to the fans as he was less under fire from Zimmer and did the Netflix show. Yet it’s been so long since this team has gone into the playoffs as any kind of favorite to reach the Super Bowl — probably 2009 was the last time they were a top three Vegas favorite — that a malaise has set in.

Think about this: There are only seven teams with fewer playoff wins than the Vikings since Favre threw across his body against the Saints. Houston has double the playoff wins of the Vikings since then. Jacksonville has one more.

Not that it should be a factor when making decisions but gosh at some point the standard has to be higher than just being “competitive.” And doing the same thing over and over… where has that worked in the NFL?

Jason A… Assuming they move on from Kirk with plans to draft a QB, any thoughts on what the Vikings do with the QB room as they prepare for the draft? I’m assuming Hall is there as QB3, but I’ve seen enough of Mullens. Do they sign another veteran QB as a more capable backup and mentor to the rookie QB?

They would definitely sign another backup — somebody quite a bit above the Nick Mullens line. Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew and Tyler Huntley are the best options. They have to be able to have a Colts-like season if the rookie gets hurt or isn’t ready.

Jordy…it seems apparent that the team will likely be forced to focus more on the ‘rebuild’ rather than the ‘competitive’ side. With major decisions at QB and the need to revamp the entire defensive roster, why is Kwesi the right man for the job? His results to date have been extremely underwhelming

Why are we not considering part of the “results” the fact that they have QB flexibility because they didn’t extend Cousins last offseason? Or that they moved on from Kendricks, Thielen, Cook, Peterson and Tomlinson at the right times or avoided paying high prices? Those decisions were enormous for revamping the roster and getting the cap right.

Why is the Jordan Addison pick treated like “ah yeah sure he got that one pick but whatever?” That decision is massive for building an elite offense for the future. Did we forget about the TJ Hockenson trade? The man was No. 2 in the NFL in receptions when he got hurt. They got a UDFA starting linebacker and corner in Mekhi Blackmon who should be part of this defense for a long time.

Going forward they have an offense with the talent to compete with just about anyone if they get the quarterback decision right. Defensively there’s a lot of work to be done but everything they have in place (Metellus, Bynum, Pace Jr., Blackmon, Murphy Jr.) are young players who can be here for the future.

Here’s the reality: Trying to win in 2022, as fun as it was, set back the rebuild part of it that will take hitting on draft picks and spending money in the right places in order to put together a Super Bowl-caliber roster. I see a GM who has stuck to the plan that was laid out when he was hired and acquired a lot of things to work with in the future and made some pretty bad moves too. I don’t think missing on Lewis Cine or signing Marcus Davenport crushed this team’s chances to build long term.

Here’s the other thing: We all know that the success or failure of this regime is going to hinge on what happens at quarterback. So any grade right now is an “incomplete.”

Jon… How much like a preseason game will it be on Sunday in terms of looking after star players and testing out depth players? If one team is 17 up at the end of the third will be “let’s call it a day” or a fight to the final second for the W?

I would think in your scenario where they are getting blasted that the Vikings would get a look at some guys who haven’t played that much. Up until that point where it’s 95% chance for the Lions to win, I assume they are going to play their starters and do everything they can to win.

Jeff… Pie chart question. Percent chance the Vikings take one of these QB options: 1. Trade up for one of the top 3 2. Stick and pick the 4th option 3. Trade down and get “their guy” 4. Stick with Kirk

I’ll go 50-50 that they stick with Kirk and then trade up is 15%, stick with their pick is 25% and trade down as 10%. At this point though anything could happen.

OldDrummer55… What is your best guess on a potential Risner contract amount? I’ve noticed he is very active after the play in helping players up, congratulating others and I believe he hasn’t allowed one sack so far. I think he’s a keeper.

Risner ranks as the 14th best pass blocking guard, which is breathtakingly better than any left guard they have had in many years. He’s also 49th out of 58 in run blocking. I would guess the Vikings are going to offer him $4-$6 million per year to return if they want him back and he’s going to want closer to $10 million. Pass blocking is definitely more valuable than run blocking but they might look elsewhere for somebody who can make a difference on the ground because they were so terrible there this year. As a unit they are 10th best run blocking by PFF and that’s very much because of Darrisaw, O’Neill and Josh Oliver. Their weaknesses killed them. So I’m not sure that it’s the perfect fit going forward. Of course, moving on risks sliding back into the left guard circle of hell.

Marcus… Why is Mullens starting this weekend with nothing to play for if he wasn’t the starter last weekend when they had everything to play for? I understand the defense was bad enough last weekend that they probably weren’t winning anyway, but the QB rotation since Kirk went down, and particularly the last 2 weeks, hasn’t exactly looked like the new process oriented approach we were told they employ.

Mullens is starting because Hall can’t run the offense and technically there isn’t “nothing to play for.” There are long odds but it’s not zero. We can look in hindsight and say it was an overreaction to bench Mullens because he is better than Hall but they needed to find out if he could spark something because it was clear that Mullens wasn’t going to be able to take them anywhere with the turnovers. Playing Hall this week would not be a good idea because last week was borderline dangerous for him to be playing considering how he held onto the ball and his injury history. They couldn’t do that again and have him get hurt going into the offseason.

I know everybody wants to be pissed because losing sucks and being pissed is what we do but out of about 70 quarterbacks who played this year the Vikings have something in the ballpark of No. 12, No. 54, No. 62 and No. 68. I do not know what process you can deploy to make the 54th, 62nd and 68th best quarterbacks in the league play like the 12th best. They grasped at straws, as every team does when their starter goes down.

Thomas… Clearly the Lions have benefited from a “tank/rebuild” and it appears that the Bears may do so too. But the two top teams this year are arguably the 49ers and Ravens, who seem to have remained competitive while rebuilding. Is there anything similar about Minnesota’s approach?

In the case of the 49ers, that’s simple: Brock Purdy’s cap hit is $889,000. That’s how you keep Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and add Javon Hargrave. Hey, by the way, where did the 49ers get Nick Bosa?

While Lamar Jackson signed that big deal in the offseason, it doesn’t really start getting mega expensive until 2025 and a lot of the good players they drafted recently aren’t super expensive this year so they were able to acquire Roquan Smith, add Odell Beckham and Jadeveon Clowney etc. Things will get harder for them soon when Mark Andrews, Marlon Humphry and Roquan Smith’s cap hits go up next year.

There are two answers to winning with an expensive quarterback. A) That QB can win MVP B) you draft super duper well. The Ravens check both boxes.

The Vikings have not drafted particularly well for years (which is more luck than skill but nonetheless) and they do not have an MVP quarterback.

Never Played Madden… Is KOCs offense QB friendly or QB complicated? The pieces are great but I’m a bit worried he needs someone like Cousins to process it like he wants. It didn’t seem like he was scheming up many simple plays with open receivers for the other 3 QBs.

Yes it is QB friendly and yes it is expensive. Here’s the problem with using any of the last seven games to try to evaluate what KOC will do in the future: He didn’t plan on Cousins getting hurt. He built the offense for Kirk Cousins to throw downfield to Justin Jefferson and, ya know, that worked out pretty good for two years. If they draft a different quarterback, they will build the offense to that quarterback. They couldn’t just throw out all the work from OTAs, minicamp, training camp and the first eight games to create an all new offense that’s based on short passes.

Someone whose name is “Never Played Madden,” makes this answer harder because I was going to say that it’s not like Madden where you can just upload a new playbook.

What we know is this offense got receivers open enough for Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens to both have legitimately good games. They can’t do it consistently because they are backups but that’s why you take a guy in the first round — because they are better than backups.

Kyle… Will Justin Jefferson gain the 118 yards he needs to reach 1,000 for the season?

I’m guessing that will be a main objective for Kevin O’Connell. Unlike Mike Zimmer not getting him the team record as a rookie, KOC understands his players.

Bradley P… Pie chart on next years Vikings quarterback? If it’s draft, do they stand pat, move up or take one in second round?

I’ll go move up as 50%, stand pat 40%, move down 10%. If there’s someone they like, they need to just pick the guy.

Tim… Michael Penix II FEVER: Catch It!!!

He makes so much sense for this team with that arm talent and his maturity.

Thomas… Who on the current Vikings would you most want to grab a Diet Dr. Pepper with?

Andrew DePaola, obviously.

Stephanie… Assuming KOC sees this week's game in a reasonable way (they aren't making the post season), how does he "sell" this game to the players? Or does he even need to because they are smart young men who know the sport anyway. I'm just curious to know if anyone in the locker room is still actually playing for the playoffs or if they've moved on to either protect or play for their futures.

I don’t think at the NFL level games need to be sold to players. They understand that every game is on tape and every team evaluates every player based on their tape. Even if the locker room has given up on the idea of making the playoffs, they are going to play professional football. They have played meaningless games before and they still do their thing.

That said, Detroit is going to be steaming mad after what happened last week against the Cowboys and that might be too much for where this Vikings team stands right now with injuries.

Gary… After the Vikings take a QB in the first round, I think the D-line is the next on the most needed list. Who might be around in the 2nd round?