Friday Mailbag: Is the decision now influenced by the division?

Vikings fans have lots of questions about the quarterback situation and whether it will change now that the Packers and Lions are winners

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By Matthew Coller

Bradley P… Talk me out of this irrational thought I’m having: I think having a level 2 tier quarterback is worse than having a tier 3. You’re paying them huge money and they can’t/won’t win you the big game. Cousins, Dak, Carr, Tua, etc.

I don’t think that’s irrational. Here’s the way I look at the quarterback position: What is required around them to be a Super Bowl contender? Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their No. 1 receiver. The Chiefs’ offense has dropped more passes than anyone and yet still finished 10th in offensive Expected Points Added. With Mahomes, Brady, Manning, basically having a team of NFL-caliber players gives you a chance to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes and Allen are the only guys in the league like this right now.

The next group down from those legends is still HOF-level players. What does it take Philip Rivers or Matt Ryan or Eli Manning or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow to win? Well, if you put together an above average team, you’re competing for the Super Bowl. If not, you are still probably a playoff team with a chance of them getting hot and doing something special.

The next level down is dudes who can compete for SBs only when they have truly great teams with awesome coaching and some luck mixed in. That’s the tier you are talking about. Last year’s Eagles with Jalen Hurts would qualify. I’d throw Stafford’s Rams in there. Jimmy G and Brock Purdy’s 49ers etc.

You can definitely get there with them but there’s lots of those types of QBs and maybe one or two per year has a real shot. So the question if you don’t have those top tier QBs is how you can be that top-to-bottom team. Is that by paying one player 15-20% of the salary cap? Probably not. But, to your point, those guys always convince you that you are close. One or two players away, one or two good breaks away. So you pay them because you are afraid of being bad and then get stuck trying to build that great team without super high draft picks and here we are…

Kyle S… If Harrison Smith retires, would the Vikings move Josh Metellus to a more traditional safety position or would they keep Metellus in his current role and have another safety take Smith’s spot?

Metellus was so successful in the role he played, do you want to move him? Maybe they won’t. At the same time, is it really that different of a role? Metellus actually might be better in Harry’s spot because sometimes he was asked to cover in the slot, which isn’t really his strength. Harry played a ton in the box this year alongside Metellus so it has a chance to be a smooth transition and maybe they can get Byron Murphy Jr. in as a slot corner more often.

Kip… Pie Chart of QB. 1. re-sign Cousins 2. Sign bridge Qb/ draft QB high. 3. Sign Cousins / draft QB 4. Trade up for Maye/Williams/Daniels

I’ll go 50% re-sign Cousins, 25% sign a bridge QB and draft high, 10% sign Cousins and draft a QB, 15% trade up. I’m sure in an ideal world they would want to bring back Cousins an then draft a QB but practically speaking that doesn’t work in my mind. Signing Cousins means they believe they can fight for a Super Bowl, so ignoring massive holes on the roster to pick a QB doesn’t really work. They aren’t in the spot the Packers were with Rodgers when they selected Love. I also think trading up is tough. The top of the draft has basically all teams that need QBs.

Josh Bondy… Hi Matthew, on your pods this week you discussed a myriad of draft day trade options, but one area that wasn’t addressed or brought up was the idea of trading for a QB. I’m not saying this is a good idea but with Bryce Young’s debacle of a year, and the “rumored interest from the Vikes last year do you think Kwesi would entertain the idea of moving our 1st for him? He fits the distressed asset model and wouldn’t be as costly as trading up...

Not that it’s impossible to see the Panthers trading Bryce Young but I would be completely stunned if they considered doing the Josh Rosen thing — and if they were offering him in a trade, I would say there is something very wrong there (as there was with Rosen). Carolina should give Young two more years of starting while building around him rather than hitting the panic button. If he was available though, he’s a better prospect than you’d get at No. 11 and he’s younger than several of them.

I do wonder if any other QB would be an option in a trade. It doesn’t seem like Arizona is going to trade Kyler Murray. I don’t think anyone wants Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Jimmy G, Zach Wilson, Dak Prescott’s $59 million cap hit etc. It doesn’t seem like there are any good options there.

Marcus… Which is more important for Flores system, pass rushers or coverage guys? In your mind is it easier to fill one than the other in free agency?

I’m not sure there is a right answer there because they are so tied together. It would be pretty helpful for Flores if he didn’t have to dial up blitzes to create pressure all the time. But if you can’t cover, nothing matters, as we saw from the Donatell defense that got a lot of sacks and gave up open passes constantly. As far as free agency goes, lots of average or above average cornerbacks are available but very few great ones. They could sign a guy or two who could keep them from having any extreme weaknesses there and it would be a big upgrade. With the D-linemen, there are quite a few difference makers like Brian Burns and Christian Wilkins. The cost and competition for them is the issue. Those guys get paid huge dollars and will have 25 teams calling for their services. It’s not easy to fill a roster through free agency in one offseason.

Derek… does trading up into the top 3 only make sense if you have young playoff level talent at the majority of other positions?

If you are suggesting that the Vikings shouldn’t trade up because their roster is so thin, I feel ya. They need top end talent on defense and usually you have to acquire that through the draft. If Harry and Danielle go, they will have zero Pro Bowls on the entire defensive roster. But I’d see be OK with a trade up because of what they could put around someone like Jayden Daniels. It might take a few years to build up the defense through development, free agency and trades but when you have such a great supporting cast for the QB and a dynamic player like that you can figure out the other parts and use the oodles of cap space to add pieces over his first couple years.

Bradley P… Are there any of the top college quarterbacks that won’t fit KOC system?

There’s probably details to his offense that I wouldn’t be able to say — certain throws that are required on X or Y concept that only KOC would know what it takes — but the job of the coach is to meld the system to what the quarterback does well. I’ve been incredibly impressed with Matt LaFleur and Bobby Slowik with the way they have adapted to Jordan Love and CJ Stroud. The thing about this draft is that all six possible first-round QBs have arm talent to make the downfield throws that the Vikings love.

Scouting college QBs is so tough because you never really know how someone is going to react when they have to play against insanely better competition. I remember when people said Kellen Mond would be good because he played in a “pro style” offense. Well, there’s no such thing. Take a guy whose character and arm you like and make it work.

Steve…. Pretend we're in a universe where the Vikings lose to San Francisco in week 7. How different do you think the rest of the season would have played out?

Assuming Kirk’s Achilles was a ticking timebomb no matter what, they probably trade Danielle Hunter and collapse as a defense sooner than they actually did. Dobbs Mania may have happened anyway but they likely finish 6-11 instead of 7-10 and have the sixth overall pick instead of 11th and an extra second-rounder that they got from a Hunter trade. Talking yourself into believing you can be competitive when you aren’t actually competitive is bad.

Speedi… You once said draft the "Weed" guy. You implied for wide receivers draft the "Route Guy." What's it for QBs? Is it draft the "Arm Guy"?

“Always Draft A Guy.” Don’t get overly concerned with all the reasons not to draft quarterbacks because everyone gets ripped apart during the draft process. Teddy’s gloves, Cam Newton doesn’t smile genuinely enough, Patrick Mahomes’ offense was too college-y, Lamar Jackson threw the ball weird, Kyler Murray is too short, Aaron Rodgers believes in illuminati ghost-aliens, Josh Allen isn’t accurate enough, Jordan Love also isn’t accurate enough, CJ Stroud’s S2 test and on and on.

There’s always a reason not to do it and some of the criticisms turn out to be completely right but if you only focus on the player’s shortcomings then you would never draft anyone because there has never been a perfect prospect. There’s also no one skill that translates perfectly. Pick one with first-round tools and character and pray.

Thomas S… Do you anticipate any changes to the coaching staff? Maybe hire you as an offensive quality control coach!?!

Don’t shortchange those QC people. They matter. Those are the grinders that make the whole operation go. I would have assumed if they were making coaching staff changes that they would have done it within the few days after the end-of-year press conference so it looks like they will go forward with what they have. I wondered about whether they might make a change at RB coach considering how poor the running game has been the last two years. They will add a defensive line coach at some point since Chris Rumph left.

Thomas H… Perhaps you will cover this in your post-season team analysis series, which has been excellent so far. While there are 4 returning starters on the offensive line, I wonder about depth, not to mention a starting LG. Are all of the backups free agents? There seem to be a lot openings on next year’s roster...

Glad you’ve enjoyed the series. Yes, future of the offensive line is coming on Monday.

O-line depth is probably the quietest super important position in the NFL and I thought last year the Vikings were very good in that area so they’ll need to find a way to keep some of these guys. Blake Brandel is a restricted free agent so he will likely be back. David Quessenberry and Austin Schlottmann are both unrestricted free agents but nobody can spell their names so I wouldn’t be surprised if they both return at cheap prices. Chris Reed and Oli Udoh are also free agents and I’m not sure if either comes back. If they do lose either of the main backups, it’s worth spending a couple million to get another experienced player.

Pickle Enjoyer… How many draft picks would be too much re: moving up to #2 in the draft?

Anything more than three firsts is too much and honestly three firsts is already probably too much considering the state of the team. At the same time, the cap space created by a rookie QB contract does counteract the first rounders you aren’t taking to some extent. The tough call is whether you’d rather have Jayden Daniels for No. 11 and two more firsts or Nix/McCarthy/Penix Jr. and trade down to No. 20. I’m not sure what the right answer there is.

Scott… We've now seen the NFL use three different formats for Wild Card weekend since moving to 7 teams - 3x3, 2x2x2, 2x3x1. What's your favorite format (fwiw, mine is the 3x3. Just wall-to-wall football. Love it)?

Since I have no other job than to cover football (thanks to all of you!), it’s very easy for me to say 2x2x2 because I spent Monday the same way I spent Sunday. If I was working a job that kept me away from a TV like when I worked road construction during college then I’d be really frustrated by two Monday games. The 3x3 does remind me of Bowl Season where the TV is on football for so long it keeps asking, “are you still watching?” Oh yeah, TV, I’m still watching.

Scott… Now that its clear after the wild card round that the NFC North is entertaining an arms race, do the Vikings take a similar approach as they did in 2014 with having a strong defensive mind and dumping resources into that side of the ball? Not to say that QB isn't and shouldn't be the top priority, just that the defense is more than "one player away". As an aside, if they go that route it seems like they might be in better shape with respect to the defensive having B-Flo in place for a year already (assuming he doesn't go anywhere, which it doesn't seem like).

Most teams that reach the Super Bowl are elite on offense and defense (shocker!) but there are some examples of teams overcoming a bad defense (2016 Falcons, 2021 Bengals) and still making it to the Super Bowl. There’s no recent examples of a team with a non-elite offense making the Super Bowl since 2015. So at least the Vikings are barking up the right tree with JJ, Addison, Darrisaw as foundational pieces going forward. But you also can’t have a horrific defense. I looked at this a year ago or so and found that there was a threshold for defense that gave a great offense a chance to succeed. What the Vikings had this year, 22nd in Expected Points Added against the pass, probably wouldn’t cut it.

The benefit of having all those guys set on offense is that they can put all assets outside of QB into improving the defense.

Bradley P… Is this the year they stop doing the idiotic “dead cap” year/s contracts?

It all depends on what they do at quarterback. If they draft a guy then taking a more long-term approach to this offseason’s contracts would make sense. If they bring back Cousins, well, then they better spend, spend, spend and screw the 2025 salary cap because this team would be thrown into all-in, win-now mode.

john OG… Hey Matthew loved your podcast earlier in the week about the rest of the division passing us. Funny enough i had said that to a friend after watching the weekend games. Having said that, it seems to reinforce how bad the "competitive rebuild" strategy is. Do you think that strategy has put us at least a year or more behind the rest of the division as far as rebuilding a roster, and do you think the moves that were made as a result of the strategy continue to hamstring us from getting out of the middle? What i mean there is the heavy usage of void years, no trade clauses, not trading for assets when the assets you have had some value.

It has put the Vikings behind, no question. All three other teams’ plans worked exactly how they laid them out and the Vikings are sitting here still deciding on a timeline. But they do not have to be behind in that race for long if they pick a QB and then plan to rebuild the defense over the next two years. If they go all-in with Cousins, then they can compete in the North next year but if they fail in 2024 they will be eons behind the other teams.

It took a few years to untangle everything the Zimmer-Spielman era did to desperately flail at being competitive but now the cap situation for the Vikings is finally good because of all the moves they made last year walking away from Cook/Kendricks/Thielen etc. They dabbled in void years but did not crush their future with them last offseason. So they would be in position to improve quickly around a rookie QB contract.

The issue is the drafting. Inheriting a team that hasn’t drafted well for many years on defense is rough and then missing on the first three defensive picks is even rougher. To me the defense is a multi-year project to become very good and really be able to challenge the teams that rebuilt in previous years.