Friday Mailbag: Is change a'comin?

Vikings fans get in their last questions for the mailbag before decision time next week....

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By Matthew Coller

Alright folks, last speculation mailbag. Next week it’s the real deal and we start getting some real changes happening. As Bart Scott said: Can’t wait.

Until then, as a certain free agent quarterback says, let’s ride….

john…. Hey Matthew, given the vikings poor track record of drafting, would it be a radical idea to trade away all their picks from rd 3 and later for decent young players who are not too expensive. Then only focus on difference makers in rd1 and 2?

This regime has only drafted 16 players. I don’t think it’s a good idea to use a sample size that small to base decisions from or to declare that they are incapable of drafting good players. There hasn’t even been enough time from either of their two drafts to be sure about the players they picked. Did anyone see Cam Bynum being this good? Or Josh Metellus? Even DJ Wonnum took until last year to become an effective starter.

I’m not against the idea of moving picks for current players but even with Ezra Cleveland’s recent signing with Jacksonville you can see the issue: You have to pay them. There is a huge advantage to picking a guy in the fourth and having him become a quality player. If you trade for someone three years into their career then they soon need a new deal. The other problem is: Do teams usually give away decent young players who are not expensive?

This team needs to stock up as much draft capital as they can in the mid/late rounds (probably by trading down) and focus on players that Brian Flores identifies as good fits for his scheme and mentality… and then pray they work out.

Jerry… Is there a rift between Kwesi and KOC? I think the two have been winning the PR battle over the “Curse of Cousins” but it sounds like the media is picking on a little de-collaboration. Is there a story starting here? Lastly, why in the heck wouldn’t KOC want to start with a QB to mold? Is he afraid?

In talking about this subject I’m always trying to be careful with words because I don’t want anything I say to be mistaken for reporting that aggregators are going to run with…. So here’s what I’ll say: We all know is that decisions like this at quarterback have the potential to cause issues between GMs and coaches. Take Zimmer and Spielman for example. Clearly the Kirk Cousins signing ultimately drove a wedge between them because pre-2018 they seemed to be on the same page. If the GM and HC feel differently about the plan at QB this offseason then the possibility exists for conflict. I think we (media) are more asking, “are you guys together on this?” Because they have talked about it in different ways.

As far as KOC goes, head coaches in the NFL are rightfully terrified of being fired. It’s understandable that he would think that Kirk being able to run the offense effectively at least gives him a baseline of winning to start with and then it’ll come down to the rest (luck, defense etc.). If you draft a guy, he might stink and get you fired. Very few head coaches overcome a bust quarterback. But I haven’t gotten the impression that KOC is so terrified of a young QB that he’s going to melt into a puddle if they move on from Cousins. He’ll just need to change how he coaches to cater to that guy — maybe a reason to have Josh McCown around.

RJ… Given the multitude of factors involved I can understand why there are wide differences of opinion about the various QB draft options. However, it is puzzling that even when analyzing one aspect of a prospect's attributes there is nothing close to consensus. For example, Thor thinks McCarthy has a great arm while Sabol thinks his arm strength isn't all that good. How do you even begin to sort out who is the better option with this state of affairs?

Greg Cosell put it really smartly on the Ross Tucker podcast: He said that unless a quarterback is a true blue chip guy, there are a dozen different factors that you could weigh when looking at these quarterbacks. McCarthy, for example, throws the ball extremely hard when he has a good platform or if he’s on the run but you don’t see deep throws with velo on them or Mahomes or Stafford type off platform throws that have mustard on them. He can’t do a Josh Allen flick of the wrist and the ball goes 50 yards. Kind of like an outfielder vs. shortstop arm. Every element of the analysis has a lot of detail to it, it’s not as simple as just saying “good arm.”

The thing we also don’t know is how these guys’ eyes, minds and hearts work. KOC sat down with them to try to figure that out. I think NFL folks are great at figuring out who doesn’t have those attributes but you don’t really know until they’re in the NFL. It’s an impossible task and that’s what makes it fascinating.

Jeff… Couple quick questions: 1. Who is more likely to remain a Viking, Cousins or Hunter? If you wanna give percentages, that’s cool. 2. Which Viking free agents make the most sense to bring back? I think Powell and Hicks earned another contract. Because of the depth issue at edge rusher, maybe Wonnum, but seems he may have a strong market elsewhere.

1. I don’t think either player is likely to stay. My feeling right now is 25% or less for both. Of course, I could be wrong by Wednesday

2. Powell, yes. I have massive respect for Hicks but age is a factor there for me. I’d like them to find someone to pair with Pace Jr. for years. I agree with you on Wonnum. He proved something last year but there’s a good chance someone overpays for him.

Jason… What is your favorite Cousins at the podium memory if this week is indeed his swan song?

Talking about Garrett Bradbury’s butt sweat and coming out in the Viking suit were a couple of highlights. Where he won the Korey Stringer Media Good Guy award though was when he talked after his injury. He was very honest about the emotions that he went through and how difficult that was for him to deal with what happened after he’d been playing so well. Plus, we need to make T-shirts that say, “it’s what the dollars represent.”

Bradley P…. I know some say KOC and KAM aren’t on the same page regarding Cousins. I think they are! I think KOC is meant to look like “the good guy” to his players and I think Kwesi is taking one for the team and Kirk is gone unless he accepts under the market. Your thoughts?

In an ideal world, regardless of personal feelings, everybody would understand that there’s only so much they can offer for Cousins while still being able to build the rest of the team and extend JJ and so forth. Only they know whether they both agree on what that price should be. I don’t think it’s an act from KOC to play “good cop” when he talks about his appreciation for Cousins. The discussion about a schism is more based on how things tend to work in the NFL than evidence that they aren’t in lockstep.

Bradley P… If they spend a first on a quarterback and lose Hunter how bad will the defense be?

Brian Flores likely gives them a floor. If they weren’t terrible last year with that roster then it’s hard to see them being in the bottom five with him pushing the buttons. That said, there is a lot of work to do in order to reconstruct the thing. I’m going to have to see the roster come together before I can take a guess at how good/bad they’ll be.

Skol Viking 44… Aside from the head coach, you’ve got a tight ends / offensive coordinator, passing and running game coordinators, offensive line coach, assistant o-line coach, WR coach, assistant WR coach, QB coach, assistant QB coach, offensive assistant, quality control, assistant regional manager, assistant to the regional manager  . . .and that’s just on offense.  Based on what you’ve seen, is having a corporate America-style coaching labyrinth essential in today’s NFL or does this seem like too many cooks in the kitchen?

I have made the joke that at some point every single player will have their own individual coach and we are getting closer and closer to that. I definitely think there’s an element of the Office Space quote: “What would you say you do?” It’s probably excessive and I think a lot of positions are made up so coaches’ friends/family have jobs. At the same time the game is so complicated and detailed now that there is probably work for all these people to do with evaluation and game planning. Plus practice time is extremely limited so they need to get a lot accomplished in a short period of time.

Where it sits with me the wrong way is in college football. The Gophers chopped programs but they have an assistant inside linebackers coach? Get outta here with that.

Marcus… How much does/should age factor into the QB evaluation? Does McCarthy’s age offset the difference in production between him and Nix/Penix?

It definitely does. If you took Nix and Penix at McCarthy’s age then neither of them are getting drafted. Coaches usually have a good idea of what parts of a player’s game can be improved and what flaws are fatal. The idea with McCarthy is that some of the mechanical issues with throwing can be corrected because he has the physical tools and mental makeup/motivation to improve them. It’s a guess though. We can better see exactly what Nix/Penix are going to be. I’m way less concerned with age when it comes to quarterback than other positions because it’s such a mental position. Nix and Penix do not need to learn how to properly throw footballs, they need to learn the NFL game mentally like any other QB and I don’t think a few years difference is going to change that.

Patrick…. given the holes to fill, where do you see the vikings trying to find value vs spending big money in FA? What are all the needs and what are the resources available? Re-sign Risner at a potentially a lower cost given his run game limitations, and allocate that money elsewhere vs. getting a Kevin Dotson? bargain bin shop for a guard? Big splash on the D-line? bargain hunt RB or get a Saquon Barkley? LB? Also, if they sign an upper level QB in FA (i.e. Cousins or Mayfield), does that give any hints on what they might do in the draft?

Linebacker is definitely an area where the prices shouldn’t be insanely high and there are a number of good players. If they were to bring back Risner at a reasonable salary that’s OK but he has struggled so much over his career as a run blocker that they could look for an upgrade. I’d be really surprised if they went for a big fish at running back, even though I kinda like that idea more than I ever have in the past because of this group of free agents.

If they draft anything else outside of quarterback at No. 11 it’s going to be defensive line. The D-line prospects in that area of the draft are really, really good and they have dire needs there.

Kyle… Back in January, Over The Cap had the potential release of Alexander Mattison incurring a $4 million dead cap hit. When he was released, the figure changed to just $1.25 million in dead cap. How accurate are the reported contract details from Over The Cap and other sources?

OverTheCap is as accurate as any source you’re ever going to find (I have asked NFL people and agents about this and that’s what they say) but there are sometimes things buried in contracts that OTC doesn’t get its hands on. Sometimes we end up with different details than we thought. Until the NFL makes it all public we are still going to have some gap between the site and the 100% fact.

Mark… We’ve been talking about drafting our future franchise QB. However, what if we don’t go QB first round, do we go interior line?

They would be out of their skulls to pick a guard at No. 11. The free agency pool has a bunch of serviceable-to-good players available and it’s a deep offensive line class. They can wait and still find a good prospect in the middle of the draft to develop. The need at defensive line is so important and the players are so good that they would be insane to pick anything else.

Danny… I've seen a lot of news on the amount of teams that will be trying to get a top quarterback this year and that we might even need to trade up for JJ McCarthy. What would you think about trading back, getting more picks for next year and focusing on defense, then drafting a top guy next year? This would involve signing a transition quarterback to a 2-year deal.

I’d be much more comfortable with them trading back into the first round to get Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix rather than trying to wait until next year. They have been waiting until next year forever. Do we know there will be good QB prospects next year? Sometimes that doesn’t happen. I’m also not OK with trading very far out of No. 11 if they aren’t picking at QB. Freaky defensive linemen are picked high, just take the best one there and don’t get cute.

Josh…. IF Hunter and Kirk both leave this offseason, does that provide the Vikings with 2-3rd round comp picks for next year’s draft? Also, with the Vikings looking at a new QB in this year’s offseason, is it brash to think that regardless of the QB (Mac Jones, Lance, Darnold, Maccarthy, Penix, Tim Couch ;) ) that because of the system, coaches and Jefferson that we’ll see a productive QB season regardless of who they pick as a starter? It’s starting to feel that the Vikes really could resurrect one of these previously failed QBs. Or draft a kid and he immediately blossoms in this scenario?

Yes, I believe they do get comp picks for both players. We have to keep in mind that those comp picks can only be third rounders. When I did the story with the former NFL scouts about why it’s so hard to pick QBs correctly they kept coming back to circumstances being such a determining factor. Sam Darnold’s teams/coaches in NY and Carolina were an unbelievable disaster.

The way I look at supporting casts is that every player has a probability of success and you weigh those odds in your favor by having JJ/Addison/KOC. Does that mean they could turn around Jim Druckenmiller? No. But we have seen enough bust QBs reemerge elsewhere i.e. Vinny Testaverde/Jeff George/Ryan Tannehill/Geno Smith that it’s believable the Vikings will give whoever they roll with a better chance than they would have with a terrible team. Like, imagine McCarthy’s odds in Minnesota vs. New York Giants.

Kyle… How good does a player, or his agent, have to be to get the “standout” label from insiders like Ian Rapoport?

Pretty sure the guy just has to exist.

Rob… If the Vikings don’t trade up for a QB and take the best available Edge or DT with the 11th pick how much draft capital would it cost them to move back into the mid 20s range of the 1st round and who is the most likely team they can trade with?

If we use the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart as a guide, it’s pretty clear they are going to need to dip into next year’s draft capital to move up that far. One thing I notice about the draft order is that there are very few teams past Seattle at No. 16 that need a quarterback so if McCarthy/Nix/Penix make it past 16 then the Vikings might be able to wait. The only other team I’d be concerned about is Tampa Bay at 26 if they lose Mayfield. A team like Baltimore has history moving down. Maybe they would do it at No. 30 if they got a 2025 second-rounder tacked on.

Ben… What is the worst case scenario for the Vikings at the QB position in 2024?

Is this where I’m supposed to say “Kirk coming back?” Or do I make a joke about knees.

Kidding aside, it would be if the Vikings signed a mediocre veteran like Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew and somehow did not come out of the draft with a quarterback.

Jim….Name the QB who you think is most likely to get drafted lower than they should have this draft? You know the guy they say in a redraft five years from now, that he was obviously the best QB of the draft.

Those might be two different things. I’m not totally convinced that McCarthy is going as high as the hype train has him. The quarterback who turns out to be good after dropping could be Penix. There may be some overthinking when it comes to him. Arm talent still rules the NFL and he’s got it.

Jeff…. Matthew, how much sense does it make to sign Saquon Barkley considering there are other holes to fill?

Not really but joy is hard to come by in this life. Honestly, the prices have been driven down so much when it comes to running backs that we have reached the point where it’s not a bad idea to sign a great talent for $12 million per year. There would be some big concerns including milage and injuries but having a good running and screen game makes life a heck of a lot easier on the quarterback. Plus if they’re going to win anything next year it’s going to be with offense.

Jon… Interested in the timeline coming up. As part of the QB decision, are there any dates where if we have or haven’t heard about a particular outcome by then, we can infer the decision is going a particular way?

Pretty simple: If Cousins doesn’t have an extension by March 13 then he’s very, very likely signing somewhere else because of the $28 million dead cap hit that kicks in with the new league year.