Friday mailbag: How will the Vikings stop the Eagles' run game?
Answering fan questions ahead of Vikings-Eagles
Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone. A big game ahead… of course we’ll have more regular coverage from TCO Performance Center (so check your email on Saturday!) but the Friday Mailbag is for Fridays, so let’s roll…
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 As well as they played, it seemed the front 7 was susceptible to the run and short passing attacks. Is that an accurate perception, and how much should us fans be concerned about it?
I think that by proxy of the way they want to play defense there are going to be games where you’re frustrated with the run defense. Like in basketball where you can’t protect the rim and the three-point line at the same time, NFL defenses have to make some sacrifices. If they want to protect the corners by giving safety help, the defensive line and linebackers will be a little more stressed against the run. That’s a pretty good trade off — though Philly has the best run attack in the league and might take advantage of that. As far as short passing, kinda the same deal where you’d much rather have opponents hit seven passes on a drive than one or two explosive throws. Concern level is in not super high, it’s just that this defense isn’t going to be the 2000 Ravens. There will be some weaknesses that have to be covered/survived.
@spardisjx Assuming the rest of the season goes well, do you think the new front office should still look into finding a true successor to Kirk Cousins next year via the draft?
That’s a pretty bold assumption, isn’t it? We are a long, long way from knowing what this season means for the future at quarterback. As somebody who simulated seasons on Madden to do the offseason over and over, I completely understand this question but… Vikings-Eagles is a pretty big game. The only thing I can say at this moment is that someday soon Justin Jefferson is going to be very, very expensive and I have trouble seeing how they could have an age 35+ quarterback who costs $40+ million and Jefferson at $30+ million. The Chiefs drafting Mahomes wasn’t just about Alex Smith’s limitations as a QB, he was also on the old/expensive side and was up for another extension. But if Kirk wins the dang Super Bowl like 2012 Joe Flacco, then I certainly won’t be scouting college QBs in March.
@Jordan_Fisk Been seeing the Cousins was substantially better under pressure last week than he has been historically. Is that something that's a sustainable product of KOC's offense, or do you think this was an outlier?
It’s definitely not sustainable. Last week he had a 116.2 QB rating under pressure. The best QB under pressure last year was Joe Burrow with a 92.7 rating and Kirk’s best ever in a single season is 84.9. Last year Matt Stafford had a 75.0 rating under pressure in the same scheme. Kirk’s numbers were shaded by hitting a wide open Jefferson on a 64-yard pass while under duress. I wouldn’t expect that to be a weekly occurrence. If they allow pressure up the middle like they did against Green Bay on a weekly basis we’re going to see much of the same problems of the past. They can work on some things to slow the rush like dialing up screens and those quick outs to Jefferson but something to think about is the Rams having the best pass blocking O-line in the NFL last year by PFF. That certainly helped them. The Vikings won’t have that luxury.
@AstroGardener Eagles plucked JR from our PS.If permitted everyone can do that for a week to gather Intel & then release the player. My question is "how long a team obligated to keep such player on 53 man roster before it can release him?"I understand that might not have been Eagles motivation.
I’m reminded of the most ruthless thing I’ve ever heard on an opposing coach’s conference call. Someone asked Mike Vrabel about the Vikings picking up some random linebacker who had been on their practice squad and Vrabel basically said the guy wouldn’t know enough about the defense to help the Vikings. I’m not sure how much Janarius Robinson picked up while he was here but the whole “intel” idea probably doesn’t exist all that much. Maybe for David Blough. I did see Dan Campbell was mad the Vikings picked him up. That guy might know some stuff that could help the Vikings. Probably not the sixth string outside linebacker though.
SkolToast18 What’s something you will be watching for in Vikings v Eagles to show you this team is truly an NFC contender?
You have to remember that the first Vikings season I covered was 2016 when they started 5-0 and then, well, you know what happened after that. So I won’t be making any huge declarations based on this game. I picked them to win 10 and I won’t be changing that after any result on Monday Night Football. More than anything a victory in which they are able to repeat a lot of the same things offensively would be a sign that even with tape on O’Connell’s scheme the opposition can’t stop it. If there’s one thing that’s going to drive this bus deep into the playoffs it’s the passing game, so consistency from week to week through the air would be a sign they can go somewhere. Another thing is: After Week 1, the NFC looked horrendous as a whole. It’ll be interesting to watch on Sunday to see if some teams start to get it together.
@SchielBrian Is Lewis Cine spying on Hurts plausible? …given Cine’s speed?
Plausible but I wouldn’t expect it. I would be surprised if we see much of the three-safety stuff. The Eagles are a terrific running team even without Hurts. That means the Vikings are going to need both linebackers on the field for most of the game. If anyone is spying Hurts it’s probably Jordan Hicks because they’ll need Eric Kendricks in coverage against Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders.
@rinkygolf Is it likely that the Vikings would use Kendricks or Hicks as a spy, given Hurts’ running ability, or is that not done in this defensive scheme?
Spy questions! I’m not sure how they’ll handle Hurts. He is such a tremendous runner that they need to have a plan but it doesn’t have to be a spy. They could have a rush plan that aims to keep him in the pocket like they did last year against Kyler Murray. They already have the rushers standing up outside, so the main thing would be staying in lanes and containing him rather than just rushing right at his spot in the pocket. It’s tricky business when you have a QB who can turn a great defensive play into a big gain with his legs.
@VikingsCouch What is the more important key to victory: * Kirk Cousins keeping the offense on the field (and the Eagles offense off the field)? * Vikings linebackers proving themselves against the Eagles run game?
In like 90% of games the time of possession ends up being within a few minutes. The game situation can do more to dictate how the other team plays. For example, when the Vikings were playing from ahead against the Packers, it wasn’t a big deal that Green Bay was successfully running. If they had been losing, it would have been a major problem. Playing from ahead is absolutely huge for the Vikings because if they fall behind the Eagles can run all night long. If the Eagles are behind, that’s when Hurts will have to throw the ball from the pocket to win.
@Hankseph Which team will Randall Cunningham root for?
He might still have some sour feelings about the way things ended in Philly. Minnesota and Denny Green gave him a chance to show that he was more than a flash-in-the-pan QB who ran all over the place. He was a great thrower and if he had today’s offenses he would be a skinnier version of Josh Allen. As great as he was — and I think he should be a Hall of Famer for his play and trailblazing — he could have been even better had the Eagles given him a better scheme rather than having him just scramble around and make plays all the time.
@bobh332 Super fun game Sunday but I assume “pump the brakes” a little because NFL teams eventually catch up somewhat on new things defensively as the year progresses?
That’s going to be the big test, right? In past years we have seen Arizona’s offense thrive early in the season and then it seems that Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme gets figured out as the year goes along. That even somewhat happened to the Rams the first time they made the Super Bowl with McVay. Belichick copied some of the ways other teams slowed down Goff late during that season and used it against them. There’s absolutely a long way to go but I do think there are a lot of indicators of good things. We haven’t seen anyone stop Justin Jefferson and O’Connell is making it even more tricky for opposing teams to find where he’s lining up.
@thelastknownG What in this upcoming matchup with the eagles would be a clear, no questions ask, tell tell sign that the Vikings are a true threat & contender for winning the NFC?
Nothing. Today it was 80 degrees in Minneapolis. By the time we know whether they can really win the NFC, it will be minus-10 degrees. An NFL season is a lifetime. If they go to Philly and win by 20, it will be a great step for them in the right direction toward becoming the true NFC threat you’re talking about but the starts of seasons have been misleading so many times. Even in 2017 they started 2-2 and then went on an 11-1 run the rest of the way. If we’re talking about one thing that would be the most impressive it would be the offensive line reducing the pressure on Cousins and the defense having a repeat performance of Week 1. We know they are going to have a pretty good offense but the defense, particularly the secondary, is still TBD.
@RobDN1 How are the Vikings going to improve the run defense this week, because it was atrocious against the Packers.
Gap…integrity? I don’t know if there’s an obvious answer. They aren’t going to make any personnel changes, which means it really comes down to not letting the Philly offensive line push them around. Per PFF they only missed three tackles against the run, so it doesn’t seem that was the issue. The Vikings did allow five runs of 10+ yards though. Maybe those lapses were the difference. Certainly can’t happen too much against the Eagles or it will be an issue.
@dantaylor26 You said in a FO response that 8-3 would be the time to believe. What do you think are the likely 2 losses outside of Buffalo?
Their toughest games on paper right now (subject to change) are the Saints in London and Miami and Buffalo on the road. There are definitely other potential pitfall games like Washington on the road and Dallas with Dak Prescott back but the schedule doesn’t really have a ton of teams that are scary. I was thinking about this today — it’s kind of a strange year in the NFL. I looked at some other NFC teams’ schedules and thought they all looked pretty easy. Pretty much any NFC team that isn’t playing the AFC West can feel like their slate is manageable. It could be a weird, weird year folks.
@dlbogosian Will Cine play? How did Ed hold up in pass? (Is Bradbury done for?)
Cine is going to play but I wouldn’t expect a ton of defensive snaps unless there’s an injury. The right guard position is probably going to be a weakness in pass protection for a while. Offensive line is basically the most difficult position in the NFL to adjust from college to the NFL and he’s changing positions from where he was at LSU. There will be a learning curve. I’m not sure what happens at center if the performance in pass protection is similar to Week 1. But Bradbury was a top 10 graded run blocker. I’m guessing they stick with it.
@pedschief Mailbag Q: AJ Brown was good (not great) the last 3 years - about 65 Rec, 1000 yds, and 8 TDs the last 3 seasons with Tannehill. Last week's breakout was against the Lions. I don't buy that he's suddenly elite with Hurts as his QB...what's your reasoning for seeing him as a huge threat this week?
You have to look a little bit deeper than the box score to see the excellence of AJ Brown. He has a career 119.5 QB rating when targeted and averages 16.2 yards per reception. Remember how Stefon Diggs had 63 catches in 2019 and then went to Buffalo and caught 127 passes? Brown was playing for a Tennessee team that ran its offense entirely through the running back, which should sound familiar to you. Now he’s with an Eagles team that traded a first-round pick for him and plans to throw him the ball all the time. And considering his incredible efficiency, he should put up massive numbers this year. By PFF’s standards, by the way, Justin Jefferson graded as the No. 3 receiver in 2021. Number 4? AJ Brown.
@bmj24 Watching on TV it seemed like Kirk used hard counts more than I remember before. Have he or coaches said anything about that?
They haven’t brought it up. Maybe that’s just part of using all the pre-snap motions.
@jrm531 Clearly interior OL continuing to be an issue. If Min beats Phi, it will put Min in incredible shape going forward in a seemingly very weak NFC. Rams were known to make big moves despite cap concerns to put pieces on winning teams. Is trading for actually good C or G realistic?
I’m not sure that it is realistic. Using Chris Reed at either position is the more likely scenario if things go sideways. They have almost no cap space at all and very few options (from what I can tell via OverTheCap.com) that can help them create more space. It’s always hard to make a deal for a lineman at the trade deadline because it takes a long time to learn the offense. I’m also not sure how good they’d have to be to start trading away assets… the answer is probably really, really good.
@jtone01 Will Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr play Monday?
Cine is a lock to play as long as he doesn’t have a setback. Booth Jr. seems pretty unclear at the moment.
@NicholasM_1993 The Vikings D has struggled against running QBs for years. Do you expect the new scheme to match up better against that style?
Oh, let’s find out if they have actually struggled against running QBs. Thanks to Pro-Football Reference, here’s what I found: There were only five games from 2014-2021 that opposing QBs ran for more than 50 yards and three of them were Russell Wilson. Cam Newton in 2017 had 70 and Lamar Jackson went for 120 in that OT game last year. They really didn’t see a ton of running QBs overall. Mitch Trubisky caused them some problems but the most he had was 43 yards. Dak ran for 37 in that 2016 game when Zimmer was out. So it doesn’t look like they got toasted on the ground by QBs a ton during Zimmer’s time. The thing about running QBs is that there isn’t a button to push that just stops them from escaping the pocket.
@headcoach21 If Green Bay loses to Chicago on Sunday night are they finished??
You remember the R-E-L-A-X season, right? They aren’t finished until they are actually eliminated from playoff contention and Rodgers is living in Brazil, smoking oregano and dating a volleyball. The Packers have the Bears, Bucs, Patriots, Giants, Jets, Commanders, Bills, Cowboys, Titans coming up on their schedule. Lots of winnable games there. However, they did look super bad on Sunday. I’m not sure it’s as simple as saying, “Oh last year they lost Week 1 too.”
@GaryMil28584117 What is the better fight song? Fly Eagles Fly or Skol! Vikings! Follow up question, do you think the Eagles fans know the correct lyrics to their fight song? (asking for a friend)
The only fight song I care about is T-Pain singing about the Miami Dolphins. If you know, you know.
@sevenstoreysta1 What impact could Lewis Cine returning have for the Vikings. I assume he would play strong safety, would his ability to take people’s heads off help against the run?
Cam Bynum is going to continue to be the starter. We don’t know if he can Cine can people’s heads off yet. There’s a very big difference between doing that in college and doing it in the NFL. I don’t expect to see him a ton in Year 1 unless Bynum struggles or there’s an injury. Maybe in a specific type of package. But it’s harder to guess these things now. In the past Mike Zimmer would just say what they were going to do with a young player.
@jrm531 Leaning in to the Kirk has long been talked about as the best way to maximize Cousins. It’s only wk2, but the NFC looks incredibly vulnerable, and GB is one of the better Ds on the schedule. Does “running it back” seem the right play in the immediate fresh off the Win hindsight?
The thing about running it back is that you need to have an outlier season vs. Cousins’ career to be right. Is it possible? For sure. Lots of things are lining up early, whether it’s healthy or the bleh NFC. But if a few things go sideways along the way and they end up 8-9, it’ll be very, very questionable. They will have not done themselves any favors in the long term and not gained anything in the immediate. The question might be: How many wins would it take to justify what they did? My number is 11 or 12 because if you win that many you go into the playoffs with a legit chance to win a Super Bowl.
@mlemke63 I see this week very similar to 2017. Lots of hype over the previous game and going to Philly. No one is talking much about Philly. You were covering the team then and now. What say you?
I see where you’re going with it but it’s not very similar. The Minneapolis Miracle is unlike anything that has ever happened in NFL history. The emotions of that win were out of this world. The other thing about that game: It was unbelievably physical. The Saints and Vikings murdered each other over 60 minutes. That was definitely not the case with the Packers last week and everyone came out healthy. This game is more like 2018. They went to Philly with something to prove early in the season and Cousins played great. If there’s one thing going for them here it’s that Kirk has a lot of experience playing in that environment and doesn’t seem to be bothered by it. This one doesn’t have the “letdown game” feel to it. Now, if they win, Week 3 vs. Detroit definitely will have that element.
@SKOLSTAHL With no Derek Barnett is the Vikings O-line at an advantage in any way? Also who is going to be responsible for spying the QB? Harrison or Eric?
You guys love a good spy. And you know what, I do too. Harrison Smith played mind games with Aaron Rodgers last week. He won’t spy but he will be a huge factor messing with a relatively young QB and confusing him at the line of scrimmage.
Barnett is a loss but not a huge one for the Eagles. He’s never really become the star they expected after some good early returns. Their most scary D-linemen are Graham, Sweat, Cox and Hargrave. Last year Hargrave only had three fewer pressures than Kenny Clark. The interior O-line does not get any breaks here.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Purple Insider to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.