Friday Mailbag: How legit are they?

Vikings-Packers will be a litmus test game

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. What an incredible time of year, huh? Football games everywhere, playoff drama… it’s on. So let’s dive right into your questions…

Alex… I’ve been thinking about this all season and want to get your thoughts on it. The culture and vibes of the team are amazing. I think we have seen bits and pieces of it in the past, but to me, this feels like the organization adopting its identity from Justin Jefferson. When he signed that deal, I think KOC knew he wanted that JJ passion and drive running through the team. The Bynum dances, the Addison breakout, the confidence on all levels by all players, I think that is all liked back to hitching the identity of the team to Jefferson. And I think Justin is embracing it. He seems to understand he is a part of something special right now, and he is at the pinnacle of it.

There are a bunch of things coming together at once to form a culture like this. For starters, O’Connell and Flores seem to greatly emphasize character when they bring someone into the environment. Guys like Cashman, Greenard, Van Ginkel and Jones already had tremendous reputations before they got here. They already had a lot of personable players like Bynum, Metellus, O’Neill, Phillips and Jefferson before they arrived, so it just made the foundation even stronger.

KOC also cares about players seeing the bigger picture and understanding how a clear-out route opens up a big play and each contribution matters, I think that crystalizes the selfless type of do-your-job attitude that is pervasive on the team.

I believe this group would still pull for each other and show their personalities if they were a so-so team and they’d overachieve because of that but when you are 13-2 then everyone is going to pull in the same direction and be willing to show personality and be selfless. Winning makes everything better.

Roger N… If the Vikings lose to the Packers do they rest their starters against Detroit or fight for the 5th seed vs the 6th seed in the playoffs?

That’s a tough call. I don’t think KOC would sit everyone for the entire game but maybe the second half. That’s what he did against Chicago in 2022. I’ve never known if there is a right answer to the issue of sitting starters. Some coaches see it as some type of macho challenge and they refuse to sit anyone but in 2019 the Vikings sat their guys and played the game of their lives against the Saints in the first round. It’s not different than having a first-round bye.

I feel like the worst scenario is the Vikings beating the Packers and then losing a tough game to Detroit and having to follow that up with a road playoff game.

In the case of the 5th and 6th seed, it doesn’t seem to really matter. They would probably want to play the NFC South winner rather than NFC West because the looming Rams are a more concerning opponent than the Falcons or Bucs. But there are no free passes in the playoffs so they’ll have to play good teams no matter what.

CJ M….Playing for the 1-seed vs the biggest rival in front of the home fans on a flexed TV slot, so I assume KOC is pulling out all the stops. What are the chances we see a Sherfield/Ham/Mundt/Oliver TD (or 20+ yd explosive play) in this Sunday?

If any one of those guys is getting an explosive, it’s most likely that it’s Oliver.

How’s this for a crazy Oliver stat: Among all TEs with at least 20 catches, PFF grades him 6th best in the NFL and he’s 8th best in yards per catch. And while we’re on the subject of Oliver, he’s also the No. 1 graded run blocker among TEs. Folks questioned signing him but he’s a big part of the offense.

I have also been waiting for Sherfield to pull out the play that he scored on during preseason. He blocks so often that they are eventually going to run a play where he fakes blocking and goes deep.

Let me use this question to offer a touch of advice for Mr. O’Connell as he dials up this week’s gameplan: NO TRICK PLAYS.

Arin J… 9th in offense pts scored, 2nd in defense. This team is likely the best Vikings team since 98. Beating the Packers this week would be huge. Do the Vikings get Redmond , Pace, Smith, back and can the o line protect better?

The next two weeks will definitely determine whether they are the best team since ‘98 or not. The ‘09 team was No. 2 on offense and 10th defensively and 2019 they were 8th and 5th, respectively. If they go 15-2 with top 10 rankings in both categories, there will be no debate. But 13-4 with fringe top 10 rankings would be closer to on par with ‘19.

I would guess that those guys will be back in the lineup this week. O’Connell has talked confidently about all of them returning, which will be needed because the Packers offense has been on a roll.

As far as the O-line, they’re still 13th in the NFL in pass blocking by PFF and Darnold is a shade above average in terms of pressure %. We know pretty much what we’re dealing with here: An O-line that isn’t perfect but can do the job enough for Darnold to throw downfield. A few times a game, he’s going to have to do something special under pressure. Lately he’s been doing it.

Jason… Who is your defensive MVP for the team right now?

There’s a pretty good debate between Blake Cashman and Jonathan Greenard with a nod to Andrew Van Ginkel as well. It’s hard to go away from Cashman because he is so vital in terms of communication and adjustments at the line of scrimmage but I don’t know where they would be without Greenard. He has 24 more QB pressures than the next best guy on the team and so many of his pressures, sacks and QB hits have come in the biggest spots.

Ben… What team in the playoffs the Vikings would least want to face?? What team would they most want to face??

It depends on seeding, obviously. If they are the No. 1 seed, then whoever they end up facing in the second round is going to be really tough unless there is a massive upset. And even then, if they were going against Washington, L.A. or Tampa Bay in the divisional round (not sure what’s all possible there) — those are still not easy matchups.

The only opponent that’s in the playoff race right now that the Vikings would prefer to play is Atlanta. That’s a rookie QB vs. Flores’s defense and a defense that got absolutely smoked by Sam Darnold last time they matched up. All the other teams have some element to them that’s concerning, particularly the Rams. But Baker Mayfield can get hot and win a playoff game like he did last year.

Bradley P… Am I incorrect in saying that no team has ever achieved as many wins as the Vikings have when carrying such a large dead cap ($70M) number? Thanks , Mr Spielman!

I tried to find if there was an answer to this question somewhere but I couldn’t find historical dead cap numbers. If someone knows, feel free to leave it in the comments.

I think you’re alluding to a point here about the way they built this team for success despite still dealing with some cap issues. (We do need to blame the current administration for Marcus Davenport). It’s impressive work, especially the way they bumped bigger cap hits down the road for Greenard, Cashman and Van Ginkel knowing that the dead cap hits would be off the books in the future.

When we talk about the Vikings’ decision about Sam Darnold’s future, it never seems to be mentioned that they already built a team around $40 million or so being spent on the quarterback position this year. KOC also won 13 games with an expensive Cousins and they were able to add Za’Darius Smith to that team.

You mention Spielman but he did the right thing with the cap in 2018 and 2019 to pull all the levers to make sure they could keep a contending team together. It was only in the last two years that they made moves out of desperation that made it tougher on Kwesi. If they stick with Darnold, they will need to pull those levers again but it’s not like it will suddenly destroy the team’s ability to add to the roster. Jordan Love is paid “50 million dollars” and yet he doesn’t have a cap hit of $50 million or more until 2028 and you know that’s never going to happen either.

Thomas S….Really enjoy your weekly tape breakdowns Matthew. How do you decide each week what to focus on?

Thank you! I don’t have any specific outline to it. Usually I start watching the game back and pulling clips that stand out to me and then I look them over and decide on 10 or 12 that I’d like to write about. This week I had a number of other things outside of Jefferson like some high-motor plays by Josh Metellus and Dallas Turner’s INT but Jefferson’s catches were so interesting to study that I felt like it made the most sense to paint the entire picture of how he dominated that game. What makes football so great is that every game has so many layers to it to analyze.

GT3 Jeff….. Let’s assume that either Darnold or McCarthy could achieve similar long-term performance that ranks them well below Mahomes but in the top 10 in the league and play another 10 years. Yes, I know McCarthy has done literally nothing yet in the NFL. In just over 2 years, McCarthy and the Vikings can sign a long-term contract that probably looks a lot like Joe Burrow’s 2023 contract at the end of his third season. Burrow’s 23 and 24 rookie contract years at $9M per year were replaced by cap hits of $19.5M and $29.7M increasing thereafter to around $50M per year. By contrast, Darnold could sign a similar contract now, two years sooner than McCarthy, but still pushing the cap hits out several years. Is two years of rookie contract at $5.5M with expected growing pains really that big of an advantage, and is it worth the risk of McCarthy possibly having a lower ceiling than Darnold? I think not, but man, what an interesting, high stakes, decision this is for the team we love. Am I missing something?

I think I get what you’re saying but there is a difference between the situations. If they are signing Darnold to a multi-year deal right now, they would still want to keep it relatively short so the door remains open for flexibility if it goes sideways. That’s what the Bucs did with Mayfield on his three-year, $100 million deal (which has a $7M cap hit this year, by the way). So it would be a little more difficult to spread out than McCarthy if he signed a multi-year contact with a year still left on his rookie deal.

The thing about this decision is that you can’t guarantee that McCarthy will perform like Darnold. How many quarterbacks ever play this well? I know the environment is amazing but this is a fringe MVP type bar that he’s set this year. It would be extremely hard to win 13, 14, 15 games with a veteran team and then be like… “OK JJ, you have never played in the NFL before and you missed an entire year but go do what he just did, THX!”

Brad L…. At what point is it safe to drink the super bowl koolaid?

The way I look at it, seven teams going into the playoffs have actual legit chances to win the Super Bowl and the Vikings are one of them. What more can you ask for? Just enjoy the ride.

Eldon…Which Packers players represent the biggest challenge for Minnesota??

Always and forever, Kenny Clark. Lately Garrett Bradbury has been having a tougher time and he’s fallen to 25th in pass blocking grade (he was mid-pack a few weeks ago) and the reason is the competition that he’s been going against. Clark is a menace against this team. The worry about the Packers defense is that they have a bunch of dudes who can all pressure the QB — nine guys with 10 or more pressures and five with at least 20.

Xavier McKinney is a ball hawk, as the Vikings found out last time around. Edgerrin Cooper is a riding star for them.

On the offensive side, something to watch closely is the effectiveness of Jordan Love throwing to Josh Jacobs. He averages almost 10 yards per reception out of the backfield this year.

Matt R… It's big to have Ivan Pace playing next to Cashman down the stretch. We see whoever is playing next to Cashman look good, but the combo of Metellus and Pace looked overmatched vs the Rams. Just in time, as they'll be having good offenses the rest of the way.

Yeah, the thing with Cashman is that he makes everybody better around him because he’s in charge of the calls but where Pace Jr. is really special is that he plays with such explosiveness and violence that opponents have a tough time containing him. He pinballs off blockers and slams into running backs when he’s blitzing and against the run he gets under pulling guards and hits gaps really hard. Having him back also opens up Metellus to move around more than just playing linebacker.

Matt D… Talk me off the ledge for this game. In the last 5 games, the Packers have one 3 point loss to the Lions and then 4 blowout wins by an average of 23 points. Vegas is favoring the Packers by 1 to 2 points at US Bank. It all comes crashing down this week, right?

It’s a coin flip. The point differentials are essentially the same and both teams have been playing really well. Green Bay has been a beast lately but they have some of the same questions about the strength of their schedule as the Vikings do. I don’t see any team that is definitively better than the Vikings, so we’ll just have to see what happens.