Friday Mailbag: Here come the questions about Darnold's future

It's the elephant in the room now

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! 11-2, huh? Fascinating times. Let’s dive into your questions…

Brad L…What would be the best/worst playoff matchups for us?

Since they just beat the Falcons by 21 points, it’s pretty hard to pick any other team than Atlanta as the best matchup for the Vikings. Past that, it’s tougher to figure out. Would you rather play the Seahawks or Bucs? I really don’t know which of those teams is stronger. They both have weapons and some difference makers on defense and they are also both flawed enough that the Vikings should be favored to win against either. I might be a little more concerned with Baker Mayfield than Geno Smith because of the way Baker picked apart the Vikings defense with quick game last year. The No. 1 team the Vikings don’t want to see is the Rams. They have the special talent at quarterback and receiver, a nasty defensive line and a coach who has won the Super Bowl.

Jason… Can we say the competitive rebuild worked at this point? In their first three years, they have been competitive and manage to turn over much of the roster.

The entire goal of any plan is to be 11-2 on December 13 with a top three point differential in the conference. To overhaul the roster from 2022 to being a legit Super Bowl contender down the stretch is a massive, massive win for the competitive rebuild. Two years ago when they arrived, we had no idea where it was going to go and how they were going to get themselves out from under an old, expensive roster that had peaked. They had to do a lot of stuff to get out of that situation (not to mention the culture issues) and into a winning position like this. Pretty remarkable work.

Think about all the other teams who fired coaches within the last three years and where they are right now. The Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Giants, Cardinals… the Commanders might be the only NFC team that started with new leadership in 2022 or 2023 that you would say is a serious team in December.

There is still things to accomplish. They have to win in the playoffs. They have to sustain this type of success similarly to teams like the Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Lions, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens etc. or it will just be a blip on the radar. But this year is pretty clear proof that they can put together a winner.

Eldon… Will Reichard missed a FG in the last game, should Vikings fans be concerned or is that just some rust after the injury?

Kickers are so fickle that it’s really hard to say. When he was healthy earlier in the year, he was absolutely terrific, so I’m going to assume that he goes back to being that good after shaking it off vs. the Falcons. There is one small thing that pinged in my brain as Matt Daniels was talking about him this week… Daniels said that Reichard was really ticked off about being injured and letting his teammates down. He also revealed after the day he got injured that he had been dealing with something and Daniels said that he never told the team that. My concern would be that he would try to push through any further issues and keep them to himself because he wouldn’t want to let the team down. I might have only thought about that because you guys are always afraid of kickers though.

Timothy G… With Darnold's resurgence and potential contract extension looming, are we looking at a Rich Gannon / Wade Wilson situation in Minnesota in the near future?

I’m not really sure about the correlation there. Wilson played well in ‘87, ‘88 and ‘89 and then struggled so they went to Gannon in ‘90 after he had been developed for a few years behind Wilson and Kramer. Do you mean, could they keep Darnold until the wheels come off and then go with McCarthy?

I don’t know if there are many situations like this ever in the NFL. I can’t find any examples in the last 25 years of a QB being picked in the first round to be the future and the bridge QB playing like this and making his case to be the franchise quarterback before the young guy even played a down. The only somewhat similar situation was Arizona with Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart. Everyone thought Warner was done and Leinart was the franchise and then Warner got back to being great. But at least with Warner, he had been great before. Darnold has never been great before except in spurts. It’s unprecedented.

Where you can make a remote comparison is Brock Purdy and Trey Lance or Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Nobody saw Purdy coming but he played great so they just stuck with him. The Packers were ready to move off Rodgers but he won MVP so they kept him and developed Love. It’s both a tricky situation and a great situation for the Vikings.

Kyle S… Will the success of the Vikings' competitive rebuild strategy cause more franchises to try it and forgo tanking?

Every franchise wants to competitive rebuild rather than tank. They try it constantly. Look at teams like the Raiders, Giants, Titans, Saints. They all made moves to rebuild on the fly, whether it was signing Daniel Jones to an extension or adding free agents like Tony Pollard or trading for DeAndre Hopkins or keeping Antonio Pierce and trying to bring in Gardner Minshew to keep them in the race. Those teams just failed miserably and accidentally tanked. Or the “natural tank” as I once dubbed it.

It doesn’t work all that often. Usually franchises need a total reset but the Vikings aren’t the only one to ever do it. When the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts, they got rid of a lot of the 2017 guys that won the Super Bowl and hung around in the playoff race, made the postseason with nine wins in Hurts’s first year as a starter and then quickly went back to the top. The Steelers have made it work while they searched for a quarterback. Tough needle to thread but they have done it.

Substack User…. What is the percentage chance that someone that is not currently on the roster has an outsized impact (i.e. Jeff Overbaugh) in the playoffs either positively or negatively.

Tremendous reference. Isn’t this already Parker Romo? The guy won two games for them out of the four he played and then was sent packing. He would definitely get a chapter in the 2024 Vikings book. Another candidate for this might be Gabe Murphy. A UDFA who popped a little in training camp and then shows up in Week 14 playing significant snaps. If he has some big plays down the stretch, that’ll be a memorable one. Same goes for Jamin Davis.

Derrick K… I’m enjoying this season and think the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender based on what I see. However, how do I balance this excitement with the reality of injuries possibly occurring down the final stretch of the season and potentially having 3 road playoff games. It feels like my excitement gets buried with a reality check.

They might not have to go on the road three times. Say they end up going to Tampa Bay and playing the Bucs and then travel to Ford Field and beat the Lions, they might end up having the better record of the two teams in the NFC Championship game and play at home. That sorta happened with the 2021 Rams. They played on the road against the Bucs and then home vs. the 49ers in the NFCC game.

The Vikings could also still win the conference. Certainly not impossible.

Anyway, injuries and fatigue are always going to be a significant factors. Over these next four weeks, the Vikings have to find ways to keep their defense more fresh and sustain drives. Rotating players might help. Getting Gilmore and Pace Jr. past their injuries to 100% going into the playoffs might help. But there’s never any guarantees.

Carlton W…. The Minnesota Vikings as a franchise have a rich history of short-term, mercenary quarterbacks having their arguably best seasons with this team. Brett Favre, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George. I would even throw Daunte Culpepper in that category, even though he was drafted by the Vikings, his peak success was incredible, yet short-lived. My question is, where would you rank Sam Darnold’s level of play this season among this group?

I probably would not include Culpepper in this category because it wasn’t a pop-up season, he did it over multiple years. Don’t forget Joe Kapp, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Gus Frerotte, Jim McMahon and Wade Wilson.

Ranking them without including Darnold, Cunningham is No. 1. That was the best offensive performance in NFL history at the time. Kapp is second because - as amazing as it was — he only threw for 132 yards per game. I’d go with Favre after that, Keenum, then George, Wilson, McMahon, Bradford and Frerotte. Darnold has already passed George and everyone behind him. He would need to win a playoff game to get past Keenum. He would have to get them to the Super Bowl to get by Favre. He would have to win the Super Bowl to top the list.

Hunter S… Feel free to lean into any bias you have...why is Justin Jefferson better than Ja'marr Chase.

If I’m being asked to make the argument for Jefferson, I would probably say that Jefferson is much better in 50-50 balls. Chase’s career contested catch percentage is 40% while Jefferson’s is 51%. Jefferson drops fewer passes (5.0% to 6.5%). JJ might be a shade more of a pure route runner than a road runner after the catch, which makes him more consistent. But either way, you’re talking about No. 1A and 1B here. Best of the best.

Geoff…. Brian Flores clearly deserves a chance to be a head coach again in the NFL, but because NFL owners are, uhh, not great, that might not happen (maybe because he just doesn't get an offer from a place he'd want to go). I do hope Flores gets to lead a team himself somewhere, but if you're the Vikings, do you offer him a huge payday--akin to what a head coach would get--a fancier title, even more authority, etc. in an effort to lock him up as you coordinator a couple more years, even before he entertains potential job offers? Or would the expectation be that he's going to test the head coach job market no matter what?

I think if you’re Brian Flores, you have to be pretty happy with the way life is going. I understand he wants to be a head coach again and his record was pretty good as HC despite what he took over but the Vikings have given him a ton of talent, a winning head coach, an organization that operates the right way and ownership that will spend to get him free agents and keep talent. There are way worse things in the world. Certainly he has earned another chance at being a head coach and if he doesn’t get it, then it will only be politics that’s keeping him out. But he seems to be in a really good place here. When his contract is up, he deserves the bag from the Vikings and I’m sure ownership will take care of that.

That said, if his goal is to get back to being a head coach, he’s going to keep fighting for that and there is no amount of money that will keep him in Minnesota.

Jack R….Coming into the season it was widely speculated this would be Harrison Smith’s last year before retirement. How would you evaluate his play this year and do you think there would be mutual interest in bringing him back next season?

PFF has him as the 29th best safety in the league (out of 70 qualifiers). I’d say that’s pretty accurate. There haven’t been a ton of splash plays but he’s been really good at coming up and stopping the run and rallying to tackle in coverage. He also plays such a huge role before the snap in terms of playing the cat-and-mouse game with the quarterback. He’s still bringing a lot of value and leadership. If he wants to come back, they will very likely find a way to keep him. It doesn’t seem that the money is an issue so much for him these days with the way he’s adjusted his contract in recent years.

Jack….I think it's clear that JJ McCarthy will be given the starting job next year. They drafted him for a reason and the Vikings desperately need the long term franchise QB they haven't had in decades. They are getting exactly what they hoped from Darnold which is nice, but I doubt he's in their future plans. If that's the case, do you see them franchising him and then trading him? Possibly a risky move, but how can they let him just walk without any compensation after this stellar season?

I’m not sure how anyone could talk definitively about this situation. My guess is that they don’t know exactly what they’re going to do next. We really need to see the whole picture before it can become clear. They really, really like McCarthy and want him to be the future but top-five QB play and 13-win seasons do not just grow on trees. If Darnold was 33 years old, it would be easy. If he was 5-foot-11, 175-pounds and was getting lucky, it would be easy. This guy is a super talent and has been a great leader. If they end up in the NFC title game, you’re just walking away? I dunno man.

Anyway, tag and trade does make sense. They’d be guaranteed to have suitors. It might also be one of those culture things to let him sign where he wants and take the comp pick later.

John K… Tangentially Viking related- Do you think 49ers in retrospect would have handled their backup QB situation differently having seen Sam's success or were they financially unable to? If Brock Purdy and Sam began a QB competition today with any coaching staff in the league- who wins the competition?

Darnold had multiple offers to compete for starting jobs and Purdy took his team to the Super Bowl, so there was no amount of money he was going to take to remain a backup. Do you think Purdy has played badly? He’s 10th by PFF and their offense is 12th in points, 4th in yards and third in net yards passing per attempt despite losing Brandon Aiyuk and having less support out of the backfield from McCaffrey.

If Purdy and Darnold had a camp competition right now after the way he’s developed, Darnold might win because he’s more purely gifted arm wise but it would be an overreaction to say that Purdy isn’t good.

(NOTE: I was answering this question before he had a miserable game in the rain against the Rams).

Owen… Are you surprised at the number of snaps Gabriel Murphy got on Sunday? He has seemed to ramp up pretty quickly considering the amount of time he has missed. Could he be following a similar development path to Ivan Pace?

A little bit yeah but they needed him with Jones out. They don’t have many other guys in that room that can play the type of role that Jones plays. I’m not sure we should compare anyone to Pace Jr. I’ve never seen anything like that in my time covering the team. I can’t remember any undrafted free agent instantly stepping in and being that good right away.

Murphy looks like he has some juice and it seemed from what they said about him in camp that he’s smart and versatile like all of Flores’s favorite players. We’ll see if he keeps seeing the field and what type of difference he’s able to make. What I don’t understand is why the guy was undrafted. Teams were picking punters but not a productive edge guy with some physical traits.

Christopher K… With all the talk about giving Sam Darnold $35 million - $41 million a year and that the Vikings have $75 million in cap space in 2025, how much would a large Darnold contract effect their ability to keep the band together - i.e. who are the Viking's pending key free agents beside Darnold and how much do think it would cost to retain them?

It wouldn’t have much impact at all. They need to make decisions on Byron Murphy Jr., Cam Bynum, Aaron Jones, and a lot of role players like Jonathan Bullard, Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield etc.

It wouldn’t impact their ability to sign free agents in the short term much either because they could structure deals to have low cap hits in the first year. Jonathan Greenard, for example, is making $22M per year but has a $5.7M cap hit this year because they had to work around Kirk’s dead money. Same with Van Ginkel, whose cap number is $3.4M and Cashman’s $3.1M cap hit.

The way they have set up their cap situation is that 2026 and 2027 are going to have a lot of guys making big dollars and they might need to do some restructuring but the cap keeps going up so much because of Amazon and Netflix money that these deals quickly look manageable. I’m not saying the cap is fake, just that the landscape has changed from the days of paying Cousins. Look around, all the top NFC teams except Washington have paid their QBs and are still able to acquire and keep talent.

Nick M… Fun hypothetical: Many Vikings fans were very excited about the possibility of trading 3 firsts to the Patriots for the right to take Drake Maye. If Maye had the same sort of training camp development and then injury as McCarthy, would this many Vikings fan still want to keep Darnold? Or would that level of investment in Maye limit that speculation?

When you reach 11-2 with the third best QB rating and seventh best PFF grade in the NFL, that’s going to come along with the possibility of that QB being a franchise guy no matter the circumstances. The 49ers probably would have preferred that Trey Lance became The Guy but it was Purdy instead so they rolled with it and didn’t worry too much about the sunk cost.

We also need to keep in mind as everyone wants to do the DARNOLD VS MCCARTHY debate that it doesn’t have to be that way. Giving a young QB more time to develop while you compete with Darnold is not a crime against football. The more time McCarthy gets to learn and see how Darnold has handled this thing, the better. If Darnold were to stick around for 2025 and have another amazing year, then they’d have to consider moving McCarthy but otherwise they can play both sides of this thing if they want. If they had picked Maye instead, they still could have looked at it that way. You want that guy to be the 10-year QB, not just a rookie contract player.

Pickle Enjoyer…Much like when Scott Stapp - lead singer of Creed - said "Can you taak muh HIGHEUHHHH", when you said that Kirk Cousins has the talent of a bridge QB, I felt that.

For six years, I made the point that physical talent and playmaking ability eventually separates the quarterbacks and that’s why it was hard to win with Cousins no matter the price. I’m wondering if this year with Darnold has been eye-opening for some folks that argued that the Vikings could win with Cousins if they had just gotten the proper right guard or drafted the right corner or whatever other excuses there were. You need the QB to do something special to win and that was just not there. Credit to Cousins for making the absolute most out of his God-given talent but this is the NFL… the best QBs ever are all all-time freaks in some way, whether it’s arm strength, scrambling ability, mentally, accuracy, leadership. Being pretty good at a lot of stuff and great at nothing makes you Trent Green or Ken O’Brien and limits the high end.

Myles S… Has there been a game this season where the defense plays less snaps than the offense? I am glad to see some players rotating in for the starters, but longevity for the defense could be the reason they don't make it as far as we hope they can.

Yeah there have been a few. They won the total play battle 82 to 43 against the Jaguars and 71-49 vs. the Colts but overall the defense has been on the field for 789 plays on offense and 832 on defense. That’s almost a full game’s worth of plays. The crazy part of that is the Vikings have forced a ton of turnovers as a defense and they have been good on third down offensively and defensively. You would think that stuff would equate to having more time of possession.

Another weird one is that the Vikings are 28th in plays per drive but 11th in points per drive. They have allowed way more plays but they have more total yards than their opponents. Strange stuff.

I agree with your point though. They have a long road ahead and it feels like they’re hitting a wall here already. Gotta find a way to get the defense off the field.

Matt D…Outside of Darnold, who has been the biggest surprise this year in terms of outperforming expectations?

Has to be Byron Murphy Jr. He was a good player for them last year and always pretty good in the past but six interceptions and ranking 10th by PFF among starting corners was not something I expected to see. Pat Jones with the 7.0 sacks.

Outside of that, I can’t really say there are too many other guys who are doing extraordinary things vs. who they’ve been before. Maybe Josh Oliver has been a bit more dangerous in the passing game. That’s about it.

Bradley P… Am I crazy to think that we may not have seen the best from darnold? I remember the last quarterback talking how it took him quite some time to learn the KOC offense. Can Darnold threaten the Allen’s and Mahomes of the world?

Well, the way he played against the Falcons is basically the best football that a human quarterback can play and the accumulation of the last four weeks has been in the Allen/Burrow/Mahomes world. It has to sustain. There can’t be a big regression down the stretch here if he wants to live in that category.

But the reason I’m slow to say that they should just move on to JJ McCarthy no matter what happens is that if he plays like he did against the Titans/Bears/Cardinals/Falcons the rest of the way, then there would be no denying that Darnold did belong in that world, it just took him longer to get there.

Brad L…Any all pro predictions?

Will anyone recognize how good Brian O’Neill has been this year? Probably not with some other big name tackles in the league but he’s having a great season. Jonathan Greenard should get a nod if he remains at the top of the NFL in sacks and pressures. Justin Jefferson is a no-brainer in kind of a weird year for receivers. There are fewer with big numbers than you’d expect. Murphy Jr. could get it for being at the top of the league for corners with INTs.

Bradley P….How big are Kwesi’s, um, guts? He cuts mainstay veterans after a 13 win season and he lets go of a quality starting quarterback.

Truly the turning point for the franchise was them not extending Cousins after 2022 and moving on from Cook/Thielen/Kendricks/Peterson. Credit goes to Kwesi for this being the original plan that they devised when he was hired. Major credit also goes to the Wilfs too. Of course Kwesi understood that 2022 was not repeatable and they were going to need a roster reset to get the cap right — that’s why he was hired — but how many owners would trust that they were still on the right path despite winning 13 games? That said, I do wonder… if Kirk doesn’t check down on fourth-and-8 and they come back to win that game, are we still saying this?

Florian K… The offense seems to be clicking and dangerous from anywhere on the field. Talk me off the ledge in being concerned about the defense showing up in the playoffs completely gassed.

The only thing I can really tell you is that defense is a fickle thing. The 2017 Vikings defense steamrolled into the playoffs completely fresh with the fourth fewest total plays and a bye week included and shut out the Saints for two quarters of the divisional round. In the next six quarters they gave up 62 points. The 49ers had the third best points against last year and then allowed 31 to the Lions.

What I do know is that teams that have made the Super Bowl in the last 20 years have been anywhere from allowing 223 points to 426 points in a season. The baseline seems to be 350 for having a good chance to make it as 29 of the last 40 teams to reach the Super Bowl have given up less than 350 points. The Vikings have allowed 240 and if they stay under that 350 mark, then at least we’ll know they meet the base level of defense to have a chance. Otherwise, it’ll depend on health, matchups, turnovers, pressures… all that stuff. They’ll also need some dudes who don’t normally have big roles to step up i.e. Dallas Turner.

Mark G… When (!) the Vikings franchise tag Darnold, what is the realistic range of picks and/or players we can expect back in return in any trade? (Are they better off settling for a comp pick and letting him go?)

One more: do the Vikings get a comp pick if Flores leaves for a HC job from the minority coaching / front office program that other teams used to get so many extra picks from?

I really don’t know. I haven’t thought about what teams are going to be interested or what they would trade for because… the Vikings are 11-2. Like I said, you might think you know what’s going to happen but nobody really does. We’ll just have to see how things play out. I’m sure if they were going to tag and trade then it would be significant return. Why does it seem like some of you can’t wait to get Darnold out the door? You haven’t had quarterback play like this since 2009!

I believe the Vikings would get compensation if Flores leaves to take a DC job, yes.

Substack user…. 1) imagining that you could have a lengthy 1-on-1 with KOC: If you could discuss any aspect of his Viking coaching or career what would that be and why? 2) As a MMQB: If KOC asked for your thoughts on how to improve one part of the on field performance of the Vikes for this season, what would you suggest?

Well, I already have your answer since I have had two lengthy 1-on-1 conversations with KOC… One was about why certain routes worked for Kirk Cousins by the numbers and the other was about his viral postgame speeches. I greatly appreciate Kevin for being willing to sit down with me. I imagine there will be more in the future, so tell you friends to subscribe.

Why I picked those subjects is something I can explain. The first one was because I thought it might be an opportunity to better understand how he teaches football. That’s exactly what I got out of it. I walked out of our meeting seeing exactly what people mean when they talk about how he explains “the why” behind concepts. KOC has reasoning behind every single concept and he can take you down to the finest detail with each one.

The viral speeches were because my wife loves them. I thought, she never talks to me about the Vikings but wants to show me KOC’s speech each week then there’s something going on here. I discovered there is a lot going on there, particularly that his coaching style is well reflected in those speeches. He’s like that 24/7, not just for the cameras after a game.

To your second question, I would only make one suggestion: It doesn’t always have to be hard. Sometimes the simplest path is the best one. Sometimes you can run a play 10 times in a game if the other team isn’t stopping it. Sometimes you can give Jordan Addison a 3-yard pass and let him run with it. Sometimes you can just hand the ball to Aaron Jones over and over when you’re winning.

That’s actually why I thought last week was so impressive. That 98-yard drive was run, run, run, bootleg, run, run, run. Keep that in mind going forward.