Friday Mailbag: Guard competition season?

Vikings fans have questions about Dalton Risner returning

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone… sorry about the Wolves. Hey, at least when you say, “there’s always next year,” you can believe it with that team. Well, we have a guard signing and some OTAs to talk about so let’s dive in…

Brian_H… If Jefferson and his agents want him to reset the receiver market (deservedly so), would the best way to guarantee this gets wrapped up and he's in camp on time be for the Vikings to offer a contract with a clause that keeps him at the top of the receiver market as long has he meets performance criteria in line with his past production? Something like an escalator that puts him 1% above the Lambs and Chases of the world for the 3 years of his contract?

Part of the reason that a team signs a player to a long-term extension is that they know three years into the deal that they’re going to be paying less for that player than the next guys who sign so it feels like it would defeat the purpose a bit to have something in there that always made him the top paid guy. Just for example, Patrick Mahomes is ninth in terms of average annual value, tied with Kirk and just behind DeShaun Watson. That has to feel pretty, pretty, pretty good for the Chiefs.

I know everyone is anxious for this to happen but the season doesn’t start for about three months. We have a pretty good outline already by the contracts that have been signed this offseason. AJ Brown making $32 million per year and St. Brown getting $30 million probably means he’ll be looking at $34 million. I’ve wondered about the length of the extension. I find it interesting that none of the receivers signed five-year deals. Waddle, Collins, St. Brown, Pittman Jr. were all three or four-year contracts coming off their rookie deals. Could also be how they structure the guarantees and stuff like that. Who knows. It’ll work itself out soon enough.

Kyle S… Now that Dalton Risner is back, are he and Ed Ingram locked in as the starting guards or could Blake Brandel still win one of those spots?

I’d be really surprised if Risner was locked into the job. The way they talk about Brandel doesn’t sound like a guy that they think is just a pure backup. They might prefer to see what he’s got over a veteran who has been in the league for a long time and they know exactly what he brings to the table. If Ingram hasn’t been taken off the field by now, it’s hard to see that happening any time soon.

Tim…I’m interested in Aaron Jones. Even though he was injured last season, the few times I saw him I thought he was an asset to Green Bay’s offense they’ll miss. How is he fitting in with the Vikings? Will the Vikings have running game.

He’s a guy that everyone gravitates toward. Jordan Addison was talking about how he was wowed by a play in practice. He’s so smart about the game that players talk about how he impacts them either with technical stuff or giving them confidence. They needed this type of leader with new QBs on the team. As far as how he plays, the reality of running backs is that health has to be the biggest concern. If he plays 12-14 games and they get 80% of the Aaron Jones that he’s been in the past then he’s going to make a big difference from what they have had in the backfield before.

Rob P… I for one will be rooting very hard for Kirk Cousins against Mike Zimmer's defense. Maybe I am alone but I feel like the first 2 years of Zimmer were great (2014 - 2015), we started to see the outline of the collapse that would come in 2016 with the fistfight with Norv and the CB mutiny, 2017 was a popup magical year but 2018 - 2021 were abject failures except for 1 playoff game which prolonged the whole mess. Maybe this is irrational but I put the bulk of the blame on Zimmer. I know Spielman could have provided better players but I am still bitter with Zimmer for how he handled everything. I already hate Dallas so I wish nothing but the worst for that situation.

For me, this is a pretty slanted retelling of the history. Not that I disagree with you about the cracks in the foundation in 2016 (though the alleged “fistfight” has never been confirmed) but putting the bulk of the blame on Zimmer isn’t fair. They needed better leadership and performance from Cousins in 2018 and then by 2020 the wheels had come off the roster and the GM decided to chase his losses by continuing to extend Cousins and make bad/desperate moves. It was everyone’s fault. I think Mike is a really good football coach and brilliant defensive mind with some very clear blinds spots. I think that Cousins is a really good quarterback with some very clear weaknesses. Oil and water together.

Jason…Has there ever been a rookie where you knew by OTAs that he wasn’t going to be nfl caliber starter? Maybe fifth round or higher because I am sure that describes several final picks and udfas.

I’ve mentioned before that my first impression of Kellen Mond was… very serious concern. That was because his throwing motion was one that I have never seen before. There’s been a ton of receivers that I knew I wasn’t going to need to watch them anymore after Day 1. There is a bar to reach for explosiveness that guys have to reach in order to make the NFL. Aside from that, there was one kicker who shanked everything. That’s about it.

My biggest miss trying to judge someone early was Brian O’Neill. He was way too small when he arrived and I figured we wouldn’t be seeing him until a year later but he put on weight and played pretty well as a rookie.

Rob….Throughout OTAs you’ve talked about the offensive install Darnold and McCarthy are learning, does the offense conceptually change that much year to year (minus a new HC and OC)?

We asked Wes Phillips about that and he said that they spend time in the offseason studying other NFL teams and college teams’ offenses on the hunt for different things they could add but the fundamentals of the offense are going to stay the same. The base stuff that they are installing right now is probably pretty close to what they have had in the past and then when they get to training camp they can work in the other stuff. Maybe they’ll add some movement to the quarterback or formations that Darnold/McCarthy could be threats with their mobility or things that have worked for Aaron Jones in the past. But it’s not an overhaul each offseason.

Bradley P….Anyone standing out in a good or bad way thus far?

If I’m reaching a bit, I’d say Shaq Griffin looks like he’s going to be a good fit. He might help Murphy Jr. get into the slot more and I think he’s better there. I’m interested in where things go for Jalen Nailor. When he’s in OTAs or minicamp you can always spot him by his speed. It doesn’t take any effort to spot Dallas Turner because his quickness seems to come so easy. During OTAs you have to stretch to have any serious takeaways unless something happens.

Kip…Rank the most odd items at OTA and Training camp Ie like blue ball and red ball. The dummy w the football taped to it. Any other wonky examples would love to hear.

Red ball is legendary. That thing has seen all the battles through the years. The dummy with the football taped to it is pretty good. One thing I haven’t been looking for but I’m sure it’s out there is the helmet on a stick. I believe it was 2021 when they brought in the helmet on a stick to try to knock away the ball from running backs. The first year they had it, I’m pretty sure it jammed Dalvin Cook’s finger.

Darius… Rank the Offensive linemen interior or grade all of them and predict season grade

Bradbury may not always have the highest grades but he’s solidified himself as a solid starting center. A lot of his value has to do with being in charge of the offensive line, leading the operation. He will be valuable this year from that perspective now that Cousins is gone. Darnold and/or McCarthy will need to lean on him quite a bit.

After that, hard to say. The weird thing is that Risner could be the second best lineman but end up not starting. Last year he ranked 20th of 58 in pass blocking grade and allowed zero sacks. I’m not sure the other two guards can do that in pass pro. Ingram gave up 42 pressures in 2023, third worst in the league. If that improves, he can be an average player. Year 3 is when we really know about O-linemen so we’ll see how that goes.

I don’t know what to expect from Brandel but I do think his size gives him a chance to be an improvement in the run game. Maybe we’ll also see Dan Feeney at some point. He’s played a lot before.

Right now I’d have to rank them Bradbury, Risner, Ingram, Brandel but that could change quickly into camp.

Owen…Can you compare and contrast Darnold to McCarthy talentwise? Does one guy have a decided advantage over the other guy in any particular trait?

They definitely have similar velocity on the ball. Darnold is more refined with his throwing. There’s more touch on the ball and it comes out pretty effortlessly. Darnold’s ability to make throws without a good platform can really wow you. He doesn’t need space or momentum or even a wind up to put velo on the ball. I don’t see that exactly with McCarthy, though when he’s on the move or stepping into throws they are just as fast.

What has haunted Darnold is bad decisions, trying to do too much and inconsistency with accuracy. In 2021 his turnover-worthy play percentage was top five worst, on par with Davis Mills and Taylor Heinicke. It was sixth worst in 2020, fifth in 2019, sixth in 2018.

The Vikings are hoping that McCarthy doesn’t have that same issue. He was more of a risk taker in college than you would think for a guy dubbed as a “game manager” but overall McCarthy wasn’t a wild man with the ball. The expectation is that he’s going to “process” quickly and maybe be less reliant on pure physical talent than Darnold. But we really won’t know until he has a big sample size of playing.

Chuck…Has Risner ever played RG? I know we assume Ingram's locked in there, but it occurred to me it's possible he's coming in as competition for both guard spots, especially since they just extended Brandel.

He hasn’t played right guard in the NFL. I’m sure that he could do it if there was an injury or something but I’d be pretty surprised if they were going to have him compete with Ingram at right guard. The way this seems to have gone is that Risner went out onto the free agent market hoping for a guaranteed starting job and a brief cash full of million dollar bills and what he got was offers to be a backup. So he decided to come back on a deal with incentives and compete with Brandel for a possible starting job. If Brandel doesn’t work out the way they seem to be hoping, he’s a fine guy to have in that spot but isn’t moving the needle. The only way I could see him getting in the mix on the right side is if Ingram gets hurt or looks really bad in camp.

Vikingman62…Does our whole year hang on Darnold and JJ play or is it much deeper? Are we good enough to over come this schedule if we don’t get better play from our QBs that a lot of writers think we will get this year(average at best)

There aren’t many examples of seasons that didn’t rest on the quarterback’s play. Only two teams made the playoffs last year that didn’t rank in the top 15 in passing Expected Points Added. That was Cleveland and Pittsburgh and both teams were ushered out of the postseason immediately. When you look at the opposing quarterback schedule, it’s pretty daunting. They face Purdy, Stroud, Love, Rodgers, Goff and Stafford to start the season. Even if Flores’ defense is good they are going to need quality QB play to even survive the first half of the year.

Mark…What happens in the rookie development program after OTA’s end?

I believe the rookie development program lasts for seven weeks, which would take us through mandatory minicamp. That goes for three days in early June, and then everybody goes on vacation and comes back for training camp. The development program specially isn’t something that I know much about. Each team has its own version, I believe.

Evan…PFF wrote an article on May 21st ranking all 32 QB starters ahead of the 2024 NFL season. Trevor Sikkema has ranked Sam Darnold/JJ McCarthy at #31, behind only Jarrett Stidham/Bo Nix. From what you've seen so far at OTAs and your conversations with the players and coaches, do you think second to last is an accurate prediction or where would you rank our quarterback combo?

I’ll give you my rant about ranking quarterbacks. I’m not sure why analysts do not adjust their QB rankings for situation. It seems like most people are using some combination of how talented they think a quarterback is with their most recent sample of performance. Last year the Vikings weren’t even 31st (26th in QB rating, 17th in net yards per pass attempt) after Kirk got hurt and they were playing guys who are barely in the league. Is it possible they are the second worst quarterbacked team in the league? If Darnold plays like he was in New York, yes. But it’s hard to imagine it goes that poorly with the receivers and coaching the Vikings have.

Where I would give Trevor some grace on the rankings is that nobody ever knows what they are supposed to do with rookie quarterbacks because there is no sample to work with. PFF had Jimmy G over CJ Stroud, who was 30th last year when they wrote the same article in May. There’s no good way to even guess.

TheDude…

1- Can Brandel play RG?

2- Any of the lesser known players/rookies making themselves particularly noticeable? Obviously we understand it is OTAs and looking good in OTAs is no guarantee it will spill over in training camp?

3- Darrisaw mentioned Dallas Turner had a beautiful spin move "faster than Everson!" - How much contact is allowed between OL and DL? I would assume pretty minimal but then again I am not there. Any other DT comments you wish to add?

1 - I’m not even sure Brandel can play left guard yet when it comes to more than a spot start but he did play right guard last year for 163 snaps. That said, I don’t think it’s a competition at right guard unless Ingram struggles a lot in camp.

2 — It is hard in OTAs but I’ve been kind of intrigued by WR Malik Knowles. His size/speed combo catches my eye. Khyree Jackson is noticeable out there because he’s so large and moves smoothly.

3 — Darrisaw never saw the 2015-2017 version of Everson Griffen but I buy it. Turner is such a fluid athlete that you could see him being a great basketball player. That said, there is basically no contact happening. Jerry Tillery is getting a lot of run, he might be a guy who breaks out in the right role.

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