Friday Mailbag: GM finalists are here
Vikings fans want to know how the Vikings will approach their GM hire
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! We’ve got GM finalists so let’s dive in…
Ben… Talk me out of the fear that the new GM will more of an overall football program evaluator and not KOC/ Flores lap dog?
The next GM will absolutely be working closely with KOC and Flores and that’s not a bad thing. I just saw a list somebody made of the top 10 GMs in the NFL and half the list was from teams where the head coach has the power.
In an ideal world, you want them to be working together on everything. Coaches are always going to want to spend more, get more veterans, have less development required and sometimes the GM is going to need the credibility in those rooms to make final decisions and have everyone respect them.
We do have to remember that there was a time where Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer built a great team together. Zimmer laid out what he wanted in terms of the types of players and Spielman and the front office went into the draft and free agency and acquired the talent.
That’s how it would work ideally. But there’s no doubt that when you have strong personalities and HC/DC with top-of-the-market contracts and proven backgrounds that you’re the GM will have to work their way through potential disagreements and it’s going to matter whether the HC or GM has the final say on decisions.
Brad L… You highlighted the strengths of each GM candidate well. Now, how would you handicap each of their chances?
I’ll take a wild swing at it while adding that the Wilfs might not even have a favorite until they sit down with the finalists.
I will go with Rob becoming president and them hiring Reed Burckhardt as GM as my prediction.
If you want odds each person gets the job under a traditional structure, I’d go with Rob as the favorite, then Nolan Teasley, John McKay, Burckhardt and Terrance Gray.
Again, total guess. My only logic would be that if they didn’t want to have Rob do it, then they’d go with the most different candidates.
Matt D… Am I crazy to think that the timing of the GM hire is actually beneficial in a lot of ways? Assuming they don’t just hire Rob, the new GM will have an entire season to evaluate the staff and the players on the roster before having to make any major changes. Seems preferable to coming in and having it be a mad dash to get everything in place before the draft and free agency begin.
It has its benefits and drawbacks. If it’s a different GM, they have to live with the way the interim GM handled the offseason. In this case, Rob set up the spot in a preferable way with cap space and draft capital but I’m sure a new person would have rather done the first draft themselves and gotten a head start on reshaping the front office, whether that’s with new hires or new directives.
But I certainly see what you’re saying. The new GM can ease into the job, evaluate everything for an entire year rather than scrambling to get acclimated to a new building while suddenly calling all of the roster shots and making long-term plans.
Bradley P… Is there anything differently that you’d have done as interim GM this year? A free agent signing they missed out on? Held onto Greenard?
If I was trying to avoid contract restructures in the way that Rob did, it would be pretty difficult to make many more signings but if I were taking a few more liberties with the salary cap without being ridiculous, the two positions that I would have aimed for improvement would have been running back and safety.
There were some really solid safety free agents like Alohi Gilman, Nick Cross, Jaquan Brisker and Jaylinn Hawkins who all signed for under $8 million per year.
I understand they’ve been developing Theo Jackson and Jay Ward and drafted Jakobe Thomas because he’s a high IQ player, but that position has a concerning lack of experience if Harry doesn’t come back.
At RB, there’s no questioning Aaron Jones’ career or his heart/leadership/toughness but that position historically ages quickly. There were some very solid RB2 types on the market like Tyler Allgeier ($6.1 million), Rachaad White ($2 million), Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($5 million) and Keaton Mitchell ($4.6 million) who were the same cost as Jones. This franchise has a lot of loyalty to its special players but in a ruthless world I would have gone a different direction.
The Greenard trade is complicated. I don’t like the idea of not having Jonathan Greenard on the roster but when you look at what Philadelphia did to fit an extra $50 million guaranteed into their salary cap, it’s not something I would have wanted to do.
With Jake Golday in the draft and then maybe pick up a Kyle Van Noy or Leonard Floyd type along with Turner getting more opportunity off the edge and then maybe plan to draft the edge position high next year, I can see the vision there.
Chris C… Any chance we see a return competition between Claiborne and Price? I have been thinking about roster construction and potentially needing to use Price WR slot for someone more useful on offense. Plus it’s a way to get Claiborne (a draft pick) on the field more. Price was better than Powell but I don’t think that bar was very high so it shouldn’t make Price a roster lock.
Non vikings- Is the guitar tracking in all your intros you playing or someone else?
Usually teams put two guys back there to return, so it would make sense to have Price and Claiborne both be used as returners.
Price does have something special when it comes to the return game. His numbers were good but we also have to remember how many times he broke one and then had a ticky-tack holding penalty bring it back. He is more of a running back type back there than receiver, so he ends up being tougher to take down.
That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t have a competition. I definitely would. I just think Price is pretty good at it.
As for the guitar stuff, yes, the podcast intro is a portion of a song that I wrote and recorded back in like 2018. When my old show on 1500ESPN was canceled and I started the Purple Insider podcast, I didn’t have anybody to make an intro so I did it myself.
Dermo M… My rip off the band aid proposal at the end of the season is to go all in on the 2027 draft , where QB and WR classes are supposed to be special. Would involve trading 3 and, reluctantly, 18. Would hate to see JJ go but I think we need a shock and awe approach. Highly unlikely Vikings will do it, but interested to hear your thoughts and alternatively what your splash move would be.
As the Director of Tanking for all American sports, I don’t think trading Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and tanking makes much sense in this situation, especially if Kyler Murray is good and they want to keep him longer term.
Unless, of course, they go 5-11 and the entire thing is a complete disaster and there’s really no other path. That doesn’t seem particularly likely to me.
My thought for 2027 would be more along the lines of a roster refresh where they move on from the older group of core players, add some younger free agents, develop players, have a robust draft with as much capital as they can get and have Kyler Murray on a fairly reasonable contract (i.e. Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield) and then look to remain as flexible as possible so when game-changing players become available that you’re in position to pounce.
I’m not sure this calls for shock and awe. The word that I’d use is “methodical.” That’s what the Rams did over a few years to get back to the top and that’s what we saw from the Seattle Seahawks.
The complete rip down can work but Justin Jefferson is just turning 27 this year. The all-time great wide receivers have routinely made Pro Bowls into their mid-30s. Larry Fitzgerald had 109 catches at 34 years old. Bailing on a guy like that at 27 is not on my radar unless they’re forced to do it.
Roger N… What are the most likely reasons that you would change your expectation for the Vikings win total for the season between now and the first game against the Packers?
Injuries within the team or the division might change the outlook. The Vikings have better depth in certain spots but are pretty light in others. And if Micah Parsons has a setback or one of the key players or quarterbacks goes down during the offseason, you might move the needle a little bit.
I’ll definitely be doing the “pick the schedule” bit more times on the podcast in order to see where I stand, especially in training camp. There are some things that could go right that might make me think they are going to be really good or some things that could give me serious pause. That all starts with the QB position.
If Kyler Murray looks awesome in camp, I probably won’t change my mind. I expect him to look very polished and prepared. If it’s a real struggle, then I might be concerned about how it’s going to come together.
How Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange look might shape the opinion a little bit.
JB… Is there anything that changes after June 1 if we don’t hear from Harrison Smith?
They will have more cap space after June 1 so it’s always possible that they would want to wait to have more flexibility to work out a contract before getting something done.
The thing about the Harrison Smith situation is that he doesn’t have to make a retirement announcement. He can just hang out and decide whenever he wants to decide. He could come back right before training camp so he doesn’t have to go through all the OTA/minicamp stuff or he could wait and see if there’s a key injury or if they’re 8-1 to start the season and then come help. Or he could just decide that he’s retiring and not tell anyone because he’s Harrison Smith.
We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
Bradley P… Hi Matthew, what’s your pie chart of odds for the new GM?
Considering Howie Roseman’s path to GM was very similar to Rob’s should that increase his odds?
I’m not sure you can use a pie chart for this but if there’s anything that would increase Rob’s odds it would be that the Wilfs and the rest of the front office and coaches got a preview about how he was going to do the job. The other four candidates have to sell a vision about how it’s going to work.
Howie Roseman is the ultimate example of a cap person turning into the premier asset manager in the league. That doesn’t have to mean that none of these other guys will understand that concept though. The Rams and Seahawks have been very crafty with the way they’ve built and been very good at valuating players. I’d say the same for the Broncos.
Being good at that side might also have a lot to do with trusting the right members of your front office to guide those areas, just like with scouting and pro evaluation.
Evan… Is there any data to show a correlation between when a bye week is and how far teams go in the playoffs? I get liking the bye before the gauntlet, but I’d rather have a bye week 8-10 in the middle of the gauntlet
Also, is there any data to show a correlation between injuries, team record, or playoff wins and distance traveled during the season? The 49ers traveling 38,000 miles seems like it has to be a disadvantage that will show up on the field compared to the Panthers, Bears, or Browns, who are all traveling less than 11,000 miles
On the second part, the head of analytics for the NFL Michael Lopez tweeted out a study that was done on the travel and the findings were basically: “meh.”
Teams are really good at travel these days, so its impact isn’t anywhere like what it might have been back in the day.
As far as the bye week, the hard part about looking at it through the lens of the Super Bowl is that Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes won most of the Super Bowls in the last two decades.
Logically speaking, it doesn’t seem favorable to have your bye week in Week 6 and then have to go the rest of the season without a break. But the Seahawks’ bye week was in Week 8 last year and the 2024 Eagles was in Week 5 so it’s probably not that significant.
Jason… You are a hall voter presenting Harrison Smith. Make the case to the other voters.
I wrote this in 2023, which included interviews with Andrew Sendejo and Anthony Harris about why Harry is HOF worthy.
The two things that voters will need to understand is that the advanced data has to be used to demonstrate how effective Harry really was and that his impact on the entire defense is incalculable.
So when we look at Smith’s usage, QB rating allowed on throws in his direction, tackling grades, pass rush pressures and all that, they tell a better story than Pro Bowls or All-Pros or box score stats like sacks, INTs, fumbles forced (though he’s great in all those areas). They show the complete impact.
But you can’t put a number on the number of calls where he totally messed with the opposing QB’s mind or adjusted into the right coverage or blitzed all by himself. We’ve really seen it over the last few years but he was doing all of that stuff during Zimmer too and it was a driving force to defenses that were consistently really good between 2015-2019.
It’s a tough road for defensive backs and the HOF seems to be intent on making it harder for anyone to ever get in, so I’ll be interested to see how it goes but he’s got a good case if you know ball.
JeffInSeattle
Looking at the GM second-round interview list, I was surprised, shocked actually, to see Brzezinski’s name on it. He’s a lawyer, a businessman, an experienced contract negotiator and a loyal employee. None of these things show the ability to run football operations. He did a good job managing the cap this off-season, but then that’s been his job for 26 years. We need a GM who knows ball and ball players. He has to have the guts to revamp a front office that has proven incapable of building a champion. The Wilfs should forget their “high floor” philosophy and go for a “high ceiling” guy. That said, I don’t think they have the stomach, or balls, for that gamble.
Don’t you think that reading someone’s LinkedIn and making an assumption about what they can and can’t do is unfair? Rob is way more than your summation of his resume, man.
He’s been one of the top front office executives on this team for many years and worn a lot of different hats along the way. He has built relationships throughout the front office and with the coaching staff and his ability to manage the cap and add additional draft capital can’t just be tossed away.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the GM position, it seems. Yes, a lot of GMs have backgrounds in scouting but there are dozens of people involved in the evaluation process, which is largely led by the director of college scouting. Forming the draft board and making draft decisions isn’t a GM picking his favorite players, it’s a complete team effort (when done the right way), and that includes getting the coaches on board as well.
I totally get fans wanting new blood and fresh ideas, but I’m not sure I fully understand why people think that if you don’t fire everyone in the front office, you’re bound to mediocrity. They have consistently been competitive for a very long time and haven’t been able to get over the top. That has a lot to do with the quarterback situation and decision makers being prisoner of the moment with reactionary moves.
We can also pretty clearly point to poor asset management as a reason they’ve been a day late and dollar short. It’s probably not a coincidence that the best GM in the NFL Howie Roseman comes from a similar background as Rob.
Jeffrey S… With the start of OTAs, is there anything particular you like to watch/focus on?
When do you think Harrison Smith declares he is back or is retiring?
OTAs under Kevin O’Connell is really a QB/WR/CB/S camp. You can definitely get a sense for whether some younger wide receivers and corners have something there.
I do want to see some of the UDFA receivers because I thought a couple of them looked intriguing in rookie minicamp.
In terms of veteran players, there isn’t much to take away. If Kyler or JJ was absolutely terrible, then maybe we might have something to say about it but it’s really hard to be terrible in a 7-on-7 camp.
On Harrison, it’s not like there’s a rule that he has to declare whether he’s coming back or retiring. He can just wait and see what he wants to do. I’d guess that if he wants to play 17 games, it would be right before training camp that we’ll know but he might just hang out and not make a clear decision right away.
Anglo Vike… Am I right to be concerned about the effect of a new holder for PATs and FGs? Reichard has been good in his first two years, especially last year but it’s a hard ask to expect such high levels this year in my view. Are you expecting his stats to drop down this season, if so what would be an acceptable level?
Yes, Ryan Wright was a really good holder and he built chemistry with Reichard. If they had a new punter with zero previous experience, yes I’d be worried. Johnny Hekker has been around for a really long time though and has always been a good holder so I wouldn’t expect any problems there.
Brent M…. Hi Matthew, I have two questions:
1) How do you view potential impacts from the latest Flores’ lawsuit updates? Will he be Vikings DC for as long as he is successful? Or might some team still hire him? Or Door C?
2) Is there anything on the horizon over the next 2 months that we can be looking forward to, prior to Training camp?
With the new development that 25 teams have been subpoenaed, this thing is getting real. There’s probably going to be some stuff that comes out that’s going to make some folks around the league pretty embarrassed. I don’t expect Flores to get any opportunities to become a head coach again any time soon because of that. He’s making a big sacrifice to fight the fight for deserving coaches to get a fair shot.
As far as the next two months, other than the GM hiring, there’s nothing much to discuss outside of some potential additions. I could see some free agents being added in the first couple weeks after June 1.
Other than that, enjoy ranking and speculation season. I’m going to try to create some unique stuff for you here. Try to soak it in. The season gets intense and this one won’t be any different.
Ho Hum, it's a long time before training camp starts.
A genuine question, not a rhetorical one, for those who want a teardown: how often has this worked in football vs how often has it resulted in Brownie-Jets? Large actions can feel good in the moment, and gracious has there been frustration and heartache. But it’s hard to build a 53 man roster, and this is the ultimate team game.
The funny thing with travel: there are all kinds of data about the importance of consistent sleep, yet even after night games teams always fly home, often with players getting to their houses as birds are chirping. Owners will always prioritize dollars (see the World Cup getting grass fields at the same stadia where NFL players don’t), but I’m curious whether not staying over after games is being miserly despite those data, or recognizing the human reality that after a big win in south Florida, the players wouldn’t be tucked into bed by 11:30 pm, so flying home is the best realistic option.