Friday Mailbag: Getting closer

Vikings fans have a new GM press conference to work with... but want answers on what it all means

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everybody! Only 13 days away from the Vikings’ future being changed forever. Cool, huh? Naturally, you guys have lots of questions so let’s dive right in…

Kyle S… If the Vikings are unable or unwilling to trade up for a quarterback and instead pick one at No. 11, how likely is it that they could trade back from No. 23 and potentially reacquire a 2025 second round pick, essentially undoing the trade with the Texans?

Because the top of the draft is going to be so stacked with QBs and WRs means that the best defensive players are getting bumped down so the 23rd overall pick might end up being a top 10 defensive player in the entire draft. That sounds pretty darn enticing considering their need at defensive tackle and cornerback so I’d prefer they just aim for a difference-maker at 23 in that scenario rather than trying to get too cute and move back. Of course, everything comes with a price tag. If another team is desperate to land the last good QB at No. 23 and wants to give up something of significance to do it, then I’d be all for that move back.

Marv… All the disinformation, deflection and distraction leaves us guessing as to what the Vikes will do. But I am convinced that KOC has decided (or will before draft day) that JJMC is the player he wants the most. They seem like two peas in a pod. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

Some years things turn out exactly like we expect and other years everything we thought heading into the draft is immediately blown up. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right and KOC and JJ McCarthy are a match made in square-jawed heaven but the sudden McCarthy rise raises an eyebrow and the price tag component to this equation is interesting. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah saying they love multiple QBs may or may not be true but I tend to think that it is because they planned their entire franchise trajectory around this draft… so the question might be whether they love McCarthy vs. someone else enough to trade three firsts to get him. If they have McCarthy only a shade better than Nix, for example, then picking Nix at 11 vs. McCarthy and two other draft picks seems like something they are willing to do. At least that’s the way Adofo-Mensah has talked about it.

Timothy G… Whom is your Masters winner?

If you asked me to name five golfers, I would really struggle.

Jason… News that the Texans initiated that trade and the demands being so high apparently for moving have left me believing we will just stick at our picks. Talk me out of that… Also, who wins the candidates?

That’s not exactly the way Adofo-Mensah talked about it. The way he framed the deal is that they had discussions previously and the idea of trading picks was thrown around and then the Texans circled back and agreed to it, possibly knowing that they were going to eventually move that second-rounder for Diggs. The way I would put it is: There is no downside to the Vikings having that pick. If the Patriots decide they want to move down, the Vikings are essentially the only team who can make that trade with them because they have two firsts. Or if they want to get to No. 4 or 5, they can outbid other teams who would try. If they don’t end up having a chance for the big trade up, they can get two very good prospects. It’s worth the small price they paid to have the options on the table.

As far as the candidates — a chess tournament to determine the world championship matchup — I feel like it’s going to be Ian again. He’s just an absolute monster in classical. I’d love to see Hikaru or Pragg find a way to the top. The other wild card there: Is Ding going to actually defend his title or not? Lots of drama in the chess world.

Jake W… Curious if you have any idea how Andre Carter is viewed by the team. Another UDFA who was given a good bonus if I remember correctly. He saw some action but failed to make a big impact. Is he a guy the figure can factor in to the EDGE rotation next year?

Carter II falls under the category of being a total project. He has ridiculous size and some quickness but physically and technique wise he was nowhere close to an NFL player. He needs a ton of work on his body and several years of development with his pass rush moves and such before he could potentially be an impact player. This training camp will be huge for him. If he comes out of camp with a roster spot, then it’s possible he could end up in a rotational role. It’s not something you can really bank on though.

Joey M… The podcast with Michigan beat reporter, Aaron McMann, had me thinking McCarthy sounds eerily similar to Zach Wilson. Am I way off base feeling that? I'd rather not be as I think that is a likely pick.

I was surprised to hear he wasn’t a captain considering leadership is talked about so much with him. Captains are voted on before the season so maybe he was still establishing himself and came into that role later. Other than that he sounded a lot like Kirk Cousins in both good ways and bad. He seems extremely dedicated to the craft but sometimes I wondered if Kirk was overly mechanical rather than being natural as leader and quarterback. I’ve seen him compared to Kirk, which is kinda a lazy comparison for every white non-large, non-rocket-armed quarterback who people like, but if he did become Kirk-ish only with a rookie contract and a playmaking dynamic to his game that would be pretty good.

Like I said to Aaron, who did a great job explaining McCarthy on that podcast, all quarterbacks are weird in their own way. At least he doesn’t put mayo in coffee.

Zach K… Hi Matt! After watching the press conference I definitely feel confident that Kwesi will definitely attempt to move up and be aggressive doing so. What are your thoughts on the Vikings being willing to do what it would take to get to 3? While I would be willing to give 3 firsts for 3. Especially if it meant getting Maye. I have a feeling the Pats will demand 3 firsts at minimum and maybe even additional day 2 capital for 2025/2026. But if they ask for god forbid, 4 firsts. Do you think we pull out of that situation and try for 4/5?

Four firsts just seems like going too far, even for Maye. As Kwesi said, nobody will ever care what they gave up if the guy turns out to be great but that also has its limits because people also only care about winning a Super Bowl. If Maye is Justin Herbert and everyone thinks he’s awesome but you never win anything because your team isn’t all that good, it’s going to result in the same thing that happened to the Chargers’ leadership.

To be clear, I would respect the insanity of it though.

It does feel like the vibe coming from all of the Vikings’ brass is that they are ready to make a big move up. Whether they can pull it off could depend on what happens with the No. 2 overall pick.

Tim… Where do you see Michael Penix ending up. I didn’t like how his season ended up and didn’t think he would be a great pick for the Vikings. I think he’s slipped, I changed my mind, what say you Matthew? Thank you for the second chance

The range of opinions on him is so wide. I could see him going No. 11 to the Vikings, No. 13 to the Raiders or not being picked until the second round. I watched a ton of his games during the season and felt like he’d be great in the Vikings’ offense and I really appreciated the way he led that Washington team in a complex offense (by college standards) but I’m not sure if they want to risk this pick on those knees and Kwesi talks about playmaking out of structure every single time he talks…which wasn’t exactly Penix Jr.’s thing. I’m going to ride this one out on the Penix Jr. train and if he ends up being a Hendon Hooker, well, that’s the draft for ya.

Timothy G… is there any indication that team scouting departments would aggregate Big Boards from outside their building to create a "Consensus" board to reference against their own?

I don’t know if any teams use consensus boards to compare to what their scouts are doing. If I had to guess, I’d say there are people within front offices who look at those and either A) know things the outside world doesn’t about why a player’s stock is what it is B) ask some questions inside meetings to their own people about particular prospects. But if you are paying an entire scouting department of professionals to make this decision, you’re probably not coming into the room and saying, “Hey guys, the mock drafters think this guy is better than you do, we should take him!”

The teams look at these things with a more narrow focus than a consensus board. We got into this with Mekhi Blackmon last year. The consensus hated him but it seemed like Brian Flores saw him as a fit for his defense and style. Well, I’d lean toward Flores on that one because he understands the skillsets needed for how he plays, whereas a consensus board is more broad. That doesn’t mean I’d always side with the team because of “fit,” it’s just a big difference between that board and an actual team’s operation inside the building.

Randy S… Knowing the Vikings are doing visits with the top 5-6 QB's, is it in their best interest to also visit Caleb Williams? Even though it seems he is a lock at #1, nothing is a guarantee when it comes to the draft. Likewise, they have an opportunity to gain more in depth knowledge of what makes him tick when they face the Bears twice per year.

It’s a clever idea but I don’t think Caleb would do a visit with anyone except the Bears at this point. This one is locked in.

Jeff... Based on history, the most likely final outcome of these top 6 QBs is that: 1 will be All-Pro caliber, 2 will be solid starters and the others will be career backups. That means that, in all likelihood, we have a 50/50 chance of getting a QB we can build a great roster around and have a legitimate shop at winning a championship. That said, I'm all in on whatever Kwesi & KOC decide to do. The chances that a player at another position taken at 11 and/or 23 being a Pro-Bowl level performer is much, much greater. So, if they draft a QB I'm fine with whoever it is. If they decide to pass, I'm fine with that too. Does that make me completely boring?

I agree with your overall conclusion and I’ve said that I’ll give them an A grade as long as they come away with a quarterback because I strongly believe that there is no predicting who’s going to work out until they actually get on the field. The only failure would be missing on all the QBs.

Since we’re on the same page here, let me talk about the other part of your question. I’ve heard a lot of people say this thing about history telling us that 3 of 6 will be busts or whatever but here’s my feeling on that: If we drafted 1,000 quarterbacks, then 200 would become stars, 400 would be OK and 400 would be terrible. But that doesn’t mean that 3 of 6 QBs this year will be bad.

In 2021, four of the five QBs stunk. In 2020, the first five QBs were really good picks. In 2019, one of the four was good. In 2018, two of the five become megastars. Same with 2017 (until Watson… ya know). In 2016, both the top QBs were hits.

Every year is a new set of human beings and a new set of circumstances. The odds the Vikings’ QB works out are different from the odds the Patriots’ QB works out because of the supporting cast. You get my point….we don’t have any idea what these QBs can be, I just know that picking a guy that fits with KOC’s outline for a winning player has better odds than whatever we would normally project over 1,000 drafted QBs.

Bradley P… Matthew, have you had a chance to read Dane’s “The Beast?” Wondering if you could share your thoughts.

I haven’t read the entire thing because that’s pretty much impossible but I’m absolutely blown away every year by the man’s work ethic in putting it together. Nobody is more informed than Brugler and he should be proud of what he produces every year.

Specifically on the QBs…

— I thought it was interesting that he doesn’t have McCarthy as high as most analysts. He’s sticking with the idea that he’s a project.

— Brugler isn’t very high on Penix Jr. but said that his mental toughness is lauded, which I think matters a lot.

— There was a comment about Drake Maye being an “aw shucks” guy who would need time to learn how to lead an NFL locker room. I don’t know what to make of that but it’s interesting.

— Daniels’ negative that he lost accuracy when he added velocity to his passes made me wonder about the fit with KOC.

— Nobody thinks Bo Nix can be more than a bleh game manager, Brugler included. It’s still weird to me that so many people were on board with him as a first-rounder and then he put up absurd numbers and suddenly he’s not worth looking at twice. Draft season is a confusing time.

Owen… Is there a scenario where KAM retains his position as the Vikings GM at the end of his contract if he doesn't land a QB in the first round of the draft? Do they move on from him before the end of his current contract?

There’s always a scenario for everything. We have gotten used to Brock Purdy being the 49ers QB but we can never forget how absolutely bat-bleep insane it is that Purdy took over that job and went to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl while Trey Lance couldn’t even get on the field. If somehow the Vikings missed out on a QB, there is a situation where they either turn Sam Darnold into a star or the QB they end up grabbing in the fourth round randomly becomes Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins. None of that is likely. Kwesi was acting so confidently on Thursday that I have to believe the plans are essentially in place now and they are 100% on getting a first-round QB.

Thomas S… Chances the Vikes draft a punter or kicker, Matthew?

Why would anyone draft a kicker when you can sign them from the UFL?

With so few picks, they would be dopey to use any capital on specialists. Though I would like to see some more competition at both spots in camp.

Ryan B… I think we all assume that Maye is the guy the Vikings really want, right? With KAM basically using the same Brandon Beane "If he's successful, who cares what we paid" reasoning in his presser, and the reports out of Boston saying the Pats could want more than just 11, 23 and next year's first for the 3rd pick, I have an idea for what that "more" could be that isn't JJ, Darrisaw or Addison. Could we offer up a '26 pick that's conditional on Maye's performance? I'm thinking something like a 2nd rounder that moves up to a 1st if he starts more than a certain number of games or makes a Pro Bowl, or could drop to a 3rd if he doesn't start more than 10 games by the end of '25. Do you think that's something the Patriots go for? Or are they going to basically be like, "If you really want him, we're going to make you really pay?"

That’s a clever plan. Has anything like that ever been done with a draft pick? Is it even legal to add that contingency to the trade? Because you’d be making the move to get the pick and then putting in a clause before even selecting the guy. If it is possible, it makes sense to add to the pot.

I also think the only players that should be off limits in a trade are the three you mentioned.

Bradley P… Judging by Kwesi’s palpable excitement during his press conference how confident are you that the Vikings will get their #1 choice at quarterback?