Friday mailbag: Gameday is finally here

Vikings fans get in their final Vikings-Packers questions before Week 1 kicks off

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By Matthew Coller

Well everybody, we made it. It’s been a journey but Week 1 is finally here and I can’t think of any better way to kick it off than with a Vikings-Packers mailbag, so let’s go…..

@TVanHatten I may be wrong, but I think the biggest factor, outside of turnovers, will be the Purple pass rush. If it is good I think they win. Is that a valid take?

Oh that’s absolutely a valid take. Last year when Aaron Rodgers was kept clean he had a 123.7 quarterback rating. When pressured that dropped to 67.9. But he was only pressured 26% of the time, which was the third best in the NFL. The fact that he doesn’t have Davante Adams to target every time he gets in trouble gives the Vikings a little more of a chance to create pressure with Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. How they take advantage of that will make a major difference. Also whether they can get pass rush also ties into stopping the run. It’s a lot easier to get after Rodgers on second-and-4 than it is second-and-12 to run play-action and slow down the rush. It’s a battle in the trenches, my friends.

Andrew via email We know that teams no longer play 3-4 the way the Steelers did in the Joel Steed/Casey Hampton eras. What is the official Purple Insider over/under this week for snaps that Hunter and Smith will each play without their hands on the ground?  If it’s higher than 5.5 for Hunter and 9.5 for Smith, I’m taking the under.

I would guess that Hunter has his hand on the ground more often than Smith because Smith is going to move around to inside linebacker and defensive tackle depending on the situation. But if Hunter feels comfortable standing up as a rusher it’s possible we could see him doing that on every obvious passing down, so I suppose I’d take the over but I’m seeing it for the first time in action so it’s hard to say. It’ll be interesting to watch how they are both deployed.

@JoshuaR_Smith You speak often about Kenny Clark's tendency to wreck the Vikings offense as a fork-lift operator... What, if anything, might the Vikings do scheme-wise to limit Clark's impact on Sunday?

One of the reasons that interior pressure is so effective is that it’s hard to scheme against. Not that edge rushers can be completely stopped but offenses can at least send help in the form of running backs and tight ends. When you have a monster DT, it’s entirely up to the interior offensive linemen. The previous version of the Vikings offense ran the ball a ton and ran outside zone play-actions to mitigate the effect of Clark and it usually didn’t matter — he still ate them up. The Packers also have always had other guys who can cause problems. Za’Darius in the past, now Rashan Gary. It’s not like they can just shift all the protection to Clark. Hitting on some screens to Cook has worked in the past…maybe some quick throws to get him frustrated from the start. That’s about the best you can do.

@RalphVixCPA What is the over/under 3rd down incomplete passes by the Packers that a late illegal contact flag is thrown for a 1st down?

We need a name for Vikings fans preparing themselves in the Friday mailbag to be enraged on Sunday. “Pre-game Freakout Mode Engaged.”

You always do worry about the NFL’s “points of emphasis” having an impact on the game like it did in 2018 with roughing the passer and 2019 with the bizarre instant replay of offensive pass interference.

I know you guys won’t want to hear this but since 2016 the Vikings have 641 penalty yards in games against the Packers and Green Bay has 638. So the refs might not be out to get you.

@HandAvenue What’s Cam Dantzler’s deal? Seems to do well given the opportunity, but he also seems to infuriate the coaching staff every step of the way…

Cornerback is a super technical position and it seemed that Zimmer got frustrated that he didn’t have some of the details mastered. Former player (and now ESPN personality) Darius Butler did a great breakdown last year of the Amari Cooper game-winning catch and how Dantzler didn’t do some of the pretty basic fundamental techniques on that play. There has been an inordinate amount of miscues by Dantzler in big situations over his first two years and I’m sure that drove Zim crazy. That said, it’s a different scheme and he’s another year older so I’m sure they’re hoping for another step forward. If not, it could be a problem.

@MichaelSenn10 When Kirk puts us in a position to win at :03 with a chip shot, will it be wide left or wide right? Or a bad snap? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

Trying to anticipate heartbreak won’t make it hurt any less, Michael. But I do think this game could be one that comes down to a field goal. There’s some significant edges for the Vikings (home-field advantage, new scheme, Rodgers adjusting to new receivers) but the Packers have a QB who has been in US Bank Stadium a bunch of times and a defense built to match up well against Cousins/Jefferson. It’s a really great way to start the season, don’t ruin the fun of the build-up by worrying about what could go wrong. It won’t change the results.

@eleysium Do you think we will read a long-form piece in The Athletic five years from now about how Kwesi was working to a five year, long-range plan, or is he just winging it the best he can with the cards he was dealt?

Knowing The Athletic, you could get a long-form piece on Kwesi’s breakfast at any time. I kid, I kid. I am certain that when they fired Spielman and Zimmer the owners and Adofo-Mensah went over a bunch of different five-year plans and they decided on this. I suspect that they are hoping the patch job this offseason works to get back in the postseason and give them a shot at a playoff run and then they’ll need to hit on some draft picks to replace the older players who will be on their way out within the next two years. That likely includes drafting a QB in either 2023 or 2024 based on the way they handled Cousins this offseason. I would assume that was a big part of the conversation when they extended him.

But hey it’s Week 1 against the Packers, man. Let’s not be too concerned right now with the five-year plan right now.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Over/Under on number of plays Justin Jefferson is in pre-snap motion?

I’ll go with 15. I know everyone wants Jefferson to be used in some new snazzy way that gets him more catches — and I definitely think they can get him going earlier than the previous offense at times — but they also can’t change too much. He’s an absolute monster outside receiver and is the best of the best on deep passes. He doesn’t need to be running underneath stuff in the slot all the time. Plus the motions also come along with blocking a lot of times in the Rams’ offense. Let KJ Osborn do the blocking on those plays.

@tadfundermann Pie chart of outcomes for the season. Division title (12+ wins), non-division winning playoff team (10-11 wins), another meh season (7-9 wins), disastrous season (3-6 wins). I have reached the "all aboard the hype train" stage so give me that division title!

I’ll go with 15% 12+ and division title, 45% non-division winning playoff team, 35% meh season and 5% 3-6 wins. The only way this team is absolutely awful is if Cousins gets hurt. The only way this team is incredibly good is if their schedule falls super favorably and if Rodgers decides mid-season he’s going to quit football to eat tree bark and live in a van down by the river. Certainly a win against Green Bay would go a long way toward helping their chances of competing for the division but mid-pack still makes the most sense right now.

@skolviking44 With Za’Darius Smith getting some press, I wonder if a “revenge game” stat exists; some measure that can determine if a high-profile player has an elevated impact in his 1st game versus his former team?

There was a study of NBA and soccer players that did find players in those sports are better in “revenge games” so, hey, maybe there’s something to it. Probably not so much in the NFL because they only play 17 times per year and every game is Armageddon. Za’Darius Smith is a pretty motivated guy, I suspect he would have tried to sack the tar out of just about any QB in Week 1. Over his last two seasons (2019, 2020), Za’Darius has only had two games where he didn’t register a QB pressure so he’s a week-in-and-week-out type of dude. That said, he’s absolutely vital to this game and if he dominates we’ll be all over the “revenge game” angle.

@WarleyOwl Who’s going to win the game Matthew?

I’m going with the Vikings by a field goal because I think they’re entering this game as the best version of themselves. Whether a win in Week 1 would mean they’re going to win the division or anything like that…well…it’s a long season… but for this game, the Vikings have some things in their favor that I think will be enough to eek out a win.

@RobDN1 Who will the Packers miss more if he can’t play, Bakhtiari or Jenkins?

I’ll go with Bakhtiari. When he’s at full strength, that guy is a freak show. In 2020 he played 446 snaps as a pass blocker and gave up nine pressures. That’s insane. He’s been gone for a while so rust could be an issue but when he’s at his best he’s such a massive difference maker.

@Sidhu6_ If Bradbury holds on every play, do the Vikings have a better chance than if he tries to play straight up since they likely won't call it on EVERY down? That's the question.

I think Oli Udoh’s 2021 season proved they will call it every play. The thing about Bradbury vs. the Packers is that it hasn’t been bad since 2019. That’s not saying the overall pass protection has been acceptable — it needs to be better — but just versus the Packers he allowed zero pressures in 2020 vs. Green Bay and both games were graded above 70 by PFF. Last year he didn’t play in the win over GB at home and then allowed one pressure on 44 pass blocking snaps at Lambeau (with one impressive reception). It’s still a mismatch but at least the results in the last three games against the Packers have been OK. If he holds up, it’ll be a big win for the Vikings.

@thetuse The narrative of “The Packers haven’t seen what the Vikings offense looks like” forget the fact that, sans D. Adams, we don’t know what the Packers offense looks like. I expect many quick-rhythm passes in space, and would not be surprised to see A. Jones as a WR. Thoughts?

Yeah, Jones lined up at receiver on more than 100 plays last year (per PFF). Certainly possible they’ll do more of that and have him and AJ Dillon on the field at the same time. Rodgers doesn’t have a good group but does have some guys he knows like Cobb and Tonyan. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to have long drives where they use quick throws, screens to Jones and runs to hang onto the ball and keep Justin Jefferson from getting into a rhythm.

@DrBrian78 Are the Packers possibly the team that falls the furthest with a QB injury? Most teams get hurt bad clearly, but they seem the most dependent on the QB.

It’s hard to say because I don’t know how much Jordan Love might have progressed from last year. It was certainly a rough ride for them when he had to play in 2021. I think the Vikings might be top five biggest falls. Just for you, I’ll look at every backup QB situation and make a top five…

1 — Brady to Gabbert

2 — Burrow to Brandon Allen

3 — Mahomes to Henne

4 — Cousins to Mullens

5 — Wilson to Brett Rypien

@TimRizzo So @ArifHasanNFL has hyped up Harrison Phillips quite a bit thus far based off what he has seen in training camp, but he hasn't been mentioned a great deal on the pod. For a team that did couldn't stop the run nor get internal pressure last year, could he be the X-factor on D?

Yeah, he’s looked good. I haven’t really talked about him because it’s been exactly what we expected. There isn’t much to debate except for whether Phillips/Tomlinson can create any kind of pressure on the interior. But to your point, last year the run defense was atrocious. The Vikings were 32nd in Expected Points Added in run defense. They got stomped on the ground against the Browns and Rams and lost both games because of it. That can’t happen again and Phillips plays a big role in that, particularly with this system playing two deep safeties all the time.