By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Football has arrived. The next time we’ll have a mailbag without real football is in February. Whooooooyeah. Let’s dive into your questions…
Substack user… So now that Football withdrawal is taken care of, what would you consider a Great Season, Satisfactory Season and Failed Season?
Think B,C,D,
A is easy, SB
F is 0 for 17
The middle grades are more intersesting.
For me
B - a playoff win
C - In the Hunt week 17
D - Finishing 6-11
Right, if we take away the obvious, I’d say it’s a great season to be in the divisional round with a legitimate chance to reach the NFC Championship. If they lose in the divisional round, that means that they had a really good regular season, got the monkey off KOC’s back when it came to winning a playoffs game and justified keeping the team together. Anything more than the divisional round would be under the obvious category of being an A+ season.
Being in the hunt Week 17 is only satisfactory if they win and make the playoffs. Let’s say they are 8-8 and beat the Bears to make the postseason, then it’s an acceptable season but certainly not outstanding in any way, especially if they lose in the first round of the playoffs. If they are in the hunt and miss the playoffs, it’s a clear failure.
Anything below .500 is a pretty huge failure for a team with this much talent and investment. This was the team that they put together that was supposed to support the rookie QB contract. It’s years of adding talent and developing players in the coaches’ systems and Kyler being here for $1.3 million allows them to still chase what they set out to accomplish when they began building a few years ago.
Matt D… What’s your prediction for the amount of pistol formations we see on Sunday? Assuming we get a classic KOC trick play, who do you think throws the ball?
My guess is that this offense is going to use a ton of different personnel and formations. Like, a metric ton. I don’t doubt that pistol is going to be a part of what they use but I’m not sure if any formation is going to be used over and over again. So I’ll guess like 15% of snaps. If they can establish that as another tool in the bag, it becomes even harder for opponents to prepare for, especially if they can run the ball out of the pistol and use play-action.
If there’s a trick play, I’d guess Justin Jefferson throwing back across the formation to Kyler Murray.
Of course, I wouldn’t advise it, but I would say that it’s a better idea than when they threw to Kirk Cousins.
Florian K… If McCarthy is not a locker room problem what’s the down side of keeping him instead of trading him like we read about? Unless there’s a definite upgrade out there for that pivotal QB3 slot I don’t see the problem. I say let the guy develop until his rookie contract expires and/or he gets too expensive as a backup. A lot of former 1st rounders have made mighty fine careers out of that backup position.
There’s no downside to keeping him. The only reason to trade him would be if another team offered you a package that you couldn’t refuse. If they were going to give a third-round pick or something, then yes, move off your QB3 for a third and let everybody start over again. For now, it’s not a bad thing in any way for him to keep developing and get some perspective on the position and then be ready if the time should come. He has won games for them before, even if it wasn’t the prettiest. There’s not many QB3s who could say that.
I do think after this year, it would make the most sense to move on becuase there might be more interest in the offseason. However, we’re seeing the Colts just stick it out. It’s not crazy to think he could remain the backup through 2027.
Brent M… Hey Matthew, Thank you for keeping us informed and entertained during the dreadful ‘dead’ period and the off-season overall. Time for some real football!
I am, perhaps irrationally, very optimistic about our chances for a win this weekend. This is based on 3 assumptions:
1) Running game is actually better
2) Kyler plays at an average level or better (and no catastrophic mistakes)
3) Flores does what he does with the D
Note: Homefield helps, as well, if course
What are your expectations for the game and are there any specific parts of the team or the game early on that you will be watching closely to get a sense of how it’s trending?
Glad you’ve enjoyed the long ride here to Week 1!
I don’t think any of your assumptions for the season are crazy at all.
In terms of the game, the thing I’m going to watch the closest is the Vikings’ offensive line vs. Green Bay’s defensive line. This O-line has a chance to be pretty darn good and I’m not convinced that the Packers’ defense should be considered scary in any way without Parsons. If they are able to keep Murray clean, we know he can perform really well from the pocket and if they can run the ball and put Murray in favorable situations then he’s got even better odds at having a great day.
Also how much Jonathan Gannon blitzes Murray. Obviously they know each other really well, I want to know how he’s going to design pressures to cause problems for Kyler.
Steve P… I have see much made about Harrison Smith’s health issue early last season and the early season struggles of the defense. One thing in that time was the health of Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman. May be not a question but an observation but how huge will it be to have that leadership, communication, and presence on the field from the get go for the defense to improve versus last year?
Not having those three guys was a worst-case scenario in terms of leadership and comminication. Those are three of the best in the game. It isn’t a surprise that when they were all back to 100% that the defense was extremely good.
Smith’s leadership is impossible to replicate because it requires a decade of experience, very high intelligence, curiosity, passion and physical tools. This is what Hall of Famers are made of.
If you think about how this actually works, Smith watches the offense come out of the huddle and get into a formation with like 15 seconds on the clock. In his mind flashes all the plays they could possibly be running out of that formation with the down-and-distance and personnel on the field. He knows every opposing player and their tendencies as well.
Then he signals to his teammates what the coverage is going to be and they have to be on the same page. Then he decides on his own alignment — whether he’s at the LOS or playing back or creeping up or drifting back — and whether he can get to the right place from his alignment in time.
Then the quarterback might see what the Vikings defense is doing with their reaction to the alignment and any shifts/motions and make a change. Then Harry has to decide whether he’s going to make another adjustment or stick with it. And everyone’s expecting him to be right. Then they take the snap and we expect Harry to get pressures, pick off passes and all that.
I’m only scratching the surface there because that doesn’t even cover the week leading up to the game with the work that goes on between Harry and Flo to build the gameplan.
Once you start peeling back the layers of this game, it’s really insane.
Jesse… Oh, how do you expect KR duties to be split between Price/Claiborne to start? Is Felton the sole guy on PR duties? Or do you see the others mixing in there?
My guess is that it’s going to be Price and Felton on the kick returns and Price as the punt returner, like he was last year. He proved to be a pretty dangerous returner, so they’ll stick with that. I’m not sure if they will get Claiborne involved in the returning or not. He has the speed but Felton is more experienced in the NFL.
@Aaron_Houdek Have you played Kyler Murray in chess yet? If not, I hope you can sometime!
Would love that. I’ve watched him play in Blitz Champs on Chess.com. In years past he was in the final and ended up as the runner up so he’s clearly pretty darn good at it.
@MIvikesfan Is Baker’s extension really the starting point for
Kyler if he plays well, or w/only 1 year, would something more
Like a Daniel Jones type of contract (more like 2-3 years at ~$40M AAV) be more likely? Do you think he might take a discount to play with Jefferson or chase the $$
I believe that it would be the starting point, yes. Daniel Jones’ contract isn’t that different but Kyler has much more success in his career than Jones. It’s way closer to Baker’s arc because Baker was pretty good with the Browns for two seasons and things fell apart and then he proved himself in Tampa Bay (though he’s still flawed). Jones only played a handful of games for the Colts last year and never had a great season like Baker did in taking Cleveland to the playoffs or like he did in 2024 with the Bucs.
I’m not sure if Murray will take a discount or not. My guess is that it’s unlikely. At the same time, I’m not sure how many teams would offer him $60 million if he’s good in MN. We saw from Darnold that other teams think that there’s a Vikings add to QBs’ performances that they might not be able to replicate.
@WriterChurchill Pt 1 - How does the division of labor work between the offensive coordinator and the O-line coach when it comes to play design and execution? When the OC calls a run or pass concept, does he typically just specify the play/protection scheme and let the O-line coach translate
Pt 2 - that into individual technique and assignments for each lineman — or does the OC (or the playbook itself) dictate specifics down to footwork, blocking angles, and combo blocks, with the O-line coach mainly serving as the teacher/enforcer of those details?
Part 1: The way game planning works is that all the position coaches are involved. So the O-line coach might work through all of the run plays that they think can work against the opponent based on the blocking up front and the running backs coach will bring ones that he thinks should be used based on the running backs’ skills vs. the opponent and then they’ll get together in the meetings run by the offensive coordinator and work it out. Then the head coach will have the final say and bring some of his own ideas to the table and they’ll agree on plays based on down and distance.
So the things you’re talking about with the blocking scheme and concepts are worked out during the week, then they’re just sent into the quarterback’s headset together as a bunch of words.
Part 2: Every play will have its own specific techniques that they’ll understand from the meetings and working on the stuff since the spring. You’re right that the O-line coach will be the one drilling the O-linemen every day on footwork, hand placement, which defenders to attack and communication between the linemen. By the time outside zone is called in the game, they’ve spent hundreds of hours on it.
@LikingMcviking Has the team announced a special teams depth chart? Any idea which players we might be seeing on coverage and return units?
They usually only announce offense and defense with the depth chart. In terms of the return units, it’s going to be Price as the main returner for both and probably Felton. The rest of the units are not on the depth chart so we’ll have to see. I can’t really take a guess without knowing who’s going to be active on gameday. That will tell us about who’s going to be out there because it’s pretty much anyone who’s not a starter.
@BrianSchiel No shade on Flores: His entire defense is on video for every team to see. What makes his approach so unique? The sheer balls to call it?
The “sheer balls” thing might be part of it. He’s very extreme. Other teams mix and match with blitzes, he uses them constantly. Other teams mix and match with zone vs. man, he uses zone more than anyone. Teams are used to game planning a certain way and then they have to completely overhaul it. I also think we can’t forget how important the players are to the discussion. Flores has gotten a ton of unique talents that can allow him to be super creative because they handle a heavy mental load.
@HollandJohnD The Packers’ offensive line looks depleted. Which Vikings defender do you predict will be most productive attacking that offensive line on Sunday?
The obvious mismatch is with Dallas Turner. Last year Packers LT Jordan Morgan had a 64.3 PFF grade in pass pro and he only played 51 snaps at left tackle last year. Also Jalen Redmond vs. Aaron Banks could be a serious edge. Banks was brutal last year and is banged up.
@ConnorSkol29 What should we expect from Tai Felton this year? I know a lot of people are disappointed with how he performed last year but the kid has speed that you can’t teach.
I’d expect him to do a lot on special teams and have a package of plays where he’s a deep threat. He showed in camp that his 4.37 speed matters and he can go up and get the football. If somebody goes down, he’ll be ready to roll after a pretty strong camp as well. I really like Jauan Jennings’ fit but he’s not a clearout route guy like Felton can be (or Nailor was in the past).
Evan… Now that it’s most likely Harry’s last year on his HOF campaign… are pro bowls still going to be looked at for the Hall of Fame when they just got rid of the pro bowl for being a joke?
Well, they didn’t get rid of players being named Pro Bowlers, so that’s still going to play into it. In fact, now it’s actually better because it won’t include the alternates anymore and the Pro Bowl nods will be just the guys that deserved it.
Personally, I wouldn’t look at Pro Bowls at all and possibly by the time Smith reaches HOF eligibility the committe won’t either. My hope is that all the advanced data that we have is the story that they’re going to look at closer. The PFF metrics make the best case for Smith because they show he was consistently elite for a very long time and was an ultimate playmaker with PBUs and pressures as well as INTs and sacks and they show his alignment data that proves his uniqueness. Plus the impact on many top-notch defenses along the way can’t be understated.
Harry’s always been left a little short when it comes to awards. My guess is because the Vikings haven’t won enough playoff games and he didn’t put himself out in the media very much.
Dan… Compared with all of the other Vikings seasons you’ve covered, where does this one rank on the amount of deep playoff run potential heading into the season? “Deep playoff run” to me means making it into the NFC Championship game. I think too many people have written off the Vikings as “maybe a wildcard contender” when in fact there’s a realistic slice of the pie chart where they’re really tough this year.
In terms of teams that I thought had the best chance to be a serious contender coming out of training camp, 2017 is easily No. 1. I remember that not many people predicted they were going to be great that year but camp went unbelievably well that year. Which is funny because in 2018 everyone had them in the Super Bowl and camp told the exact opposite story. Last year we thought that they had the roster players 2-53 but had no idea what to expect from McCarthy.
I’d say it’s been one of the more promising camps considering Murray looked good, Jefferson is back, the weapons are improved with Jennings, the O-line is healthy, the defense got Harry back, added some dudes and had a number of young players show improvement. So I’d probably put it in the top three or four.
I wouldn’t quite say that they’ve been totally written off. Almost every day I see some national analyst or talking head say that their bold prediction is the Vikings going deep into the playoffs and even though the Vegas odds have them fourth in the division, it’s by the smallest margin of any last-place projection. I’d describe it as more intrigue than hatin’ from the outside world.
In order to get those NFC Championship type projections from folks, there has to be something proven in the past. No team with a QB and HC with zero playoff wins is going to get the pre-season crown. The good part for the Vikings is that the Seahawks had worse odds going into last year than Minnesota does now and there’s a fair amount of similarities with the good defense and quality QB coming in.
I’d go with about a 8% chance the Vikings could make the NFC Championship game but it’s definitely not zero.
We might even have to bump that up a tiny percentage after the Rams looked human.
Brad L… Watching Darnold go down Wednesday night makes me wonder, how confident are you in our backup QB situation?
The backup QB situation is fine. My biggest concern with Carson Wentz is how many hits he takes and whether he could play for an extended period of time without getting banged up again. In terms of performance, in the first four games, he went 2-2 with a 67% completion, 7.5 YPA and averaged 268 yards passing per game. You really can’t expect much better than that for a backup QB.
In hindsight, however, you do wish that Wentz got more backup reps during camp.
CMBoourns… Last year Eric Wilson went from a depth free agent signing to a major piece of our defense, is there anyone (offense or defense) you could see going from a depth or rotational role to an impactful player this year?
It is crazy how that happened. Now Wilson is viewed as an absolutely vital piece of the defense.
This year the most obvious nominee is Ty Ingram-Dawkins. Last year he got his feet wet and now he’s going to be asked to play a huge role. That’s pretty unusual for a fifth-round pick but they’be been talking like he’s really shined and made great strides.
Another guy might be Jay Ward. I’ve really liked the violence and conviction that he plays with. They’ve developed him over a few years and it looks like he’s ready to start making plays. I’ll be interested to see how much usage he gets from the jump because I’m guessing it’s going to be quite a bit.
Jason… Who wins this weekend?
I’m going with the Vikings winning 24 to 21. I think there are plenty of advantages of the Vikings i.e. being at home and Micah Parsons not playing but Jordan Love isn’t the type of quarterback who’s going to give you too many easy days as a defense. People should also separate Matt LaFleur’s playoff failures with him as a regular season coach. He’s pretty darn good.