Friday Mailbag: Flores' future and distributing blame post-Dobbs

Vikings fans are wondering if Brian Flores ends up elsewhere and what went wrong with Josh Dobbs to fall so fast

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! There is a game tomorrow, so that’s weird. Let’s see what’s on everybody’s minds…

@jonhobbs612 In light of the Raiders scoring 60+ points tonight against the Chargers, and the Vikings holding the Raiders scoreless last week, should the Vikes pay top dollar to extend the DC?

I would imagine there isn’t a price tag that would keep Flores in Minnesota if he gets a head coaching job that he wants to take but if he isn’t offered a job there is a possibility that he’s given some type of adjustment, maybe in contract or title. I don’t know what his contract is like right now. I’d guess it’s pretty lucrative. So there could be something like an assistant coach title added on. It does feel like Flores and KOC are on the same page with their management of both sides of the ball and message to the team.

The Raiders blasting the Chargers like this really shows you what happens when a team quits on its coach. It’s bad, bad, bad. But I’m not going to argue with any interpretation that Flores’ defense has been very good and that it’s not just a product of competition because the bad QBs like Love, Fields and Aidan O’Connell have definitely played better when not going against the Vikings.

@BeastNeymar1 Not a Vikings question but I’ve been thinking, would you agree that football has to be the hardest sport to cover accurately? The shortest sample size of games in sports as well as how many flukey things happen game to game. It is what makes nfl so much fun

I don’t think it’s hard to cover accurately but in my world cover means reporting on the facts, taking people inside the game and bringing light and context to the moments that shape the team. The coaches talk all the time and the players are smart and insightful, so it’s easy to tell the story of the a team. Predicting and staying level headed in commenting on a team — now that’s hard as heck because we’re all going to be wrong constantly. The best gamblers in the world are only a shade over 50% predicting games and it’s incredibly difficult to know how much to react to certain events. That’s why I try to focus on ranges of outcomes and probabilities. Was it possible Josh Dobbs could have found chemistry with KOC and become the bridge QB? Oh yes. I’m guessing inside the team they thought that was possible after two weeks. Am I stunned that it came crashing down? Nope, because that was always the most likely outcome. That does make it a challenge but I love that challenge. I think we all enjoy the fact that football is such a roller coaster ride and you never know what’s going to happen. I was always so annoyed when the Lakers, Yankees and Duke MBB won all the time because it was like we knew what was next from the start. Trying to evaluate decisions and tracking all the butterfly effects. It’s a fascinating game.

@chrisvogel_92 How scared are you that, if Flores leaves for a HC job, O’Connell might look to bring in Brandon Staley after he’s fired tomorrow morning

I’m scared of the ocean and snakes more than defensive coordinator situations. I’d say after what happened Thursday night that nobody is touching Staley, even if him and KOC are close. He was a good DC for the Rams and maybe he just wasn’t fit to be a head coach but this is going to stay with everyone for a long, long time. It reminds me of Kliff Kingsbury. He’s probably not as bad as it looked in Arizona, just the way that it happened was so gnarly that he ended up at USC. Even if there was some consideration for having him replace Flores, it wouldn’t make much sense because Staley is another Fangio-style guy and Flores’ style is the complete opposite. After watching this, I don’t see KOC ever going back to a defense that rushes four and sits back in two-deep.

Dan… am I wrong to think that the Vikings are absolutely set up to make a big trade up for a qb, regardless of where they end up drafting? They have a good offensive setup (2 good receivers and an o-line), and a suddenly developing defence full of cheap young players. If there is ever a time you can say it about a team, isn’t this exactly the sort of roster that can trade away some 1st rounders to get the cheap qb?

You are not wrong at all. If there is a time to do it, it’s now. There are a lot of positions that have been resolved that we had major concerns about heading into the season. When you feel like you are a quarterback away and you have foundational pieces at tackle, receiver, linebacker, corner and safety, you can take a big swing

@ShaunOFtheMafia Do you expect Ty Chandler to put up some stats come Sunday? I might have to start him in fantasy with Nico Collins being injured. Do I dare start Chandler over Terry Mclaurin or Calvin Ridley? I don’t trust either WR.

I’m the worst fantasy player in the world, so I don’t even attempt to give out advice but I do think Chandler could break out. This Cincinnati defense is not impressive and we have seen his upside when he gets a chance.

@ttrandahl does this raiders game mean that the defense is better than we thought, that the chargers are worse than we thought, or that this is just the most week to week the league has been in recent memory

The Raiders-Chargers game doesn’t have much to do with Raiders-Vikings because the Vikings are fighting like crazy to make the playoffs and the Chargers want their coach fired. We already thought this defense was really good. I wouldn’t quite go as far as calling them the 2000 Ravens or 2015 Broncos because of what happened to the Chargers. If they do it over the final four games against good offenses, we can say for certain it’s one of the best showings from a DC in a really long time.

@MrEd315 So is the Joshua Dobbs warm and fuzzy, feel good story over with the Vikings?

Yes sir. We should keep in mind, though, that if they make the playoffs him winning those two games will have been a major part of it.

@nurseintime Where would the team be if they had drafted Will Levis instead of Addison?

We would feel like they had their answer at quarterback for 2024 but his ups and downs would make it unclear whether he was going to be a roller coaster middling QB with great talent or a Josh Allen type who turns his freakishness into superstardom. I’ll always understand why they didn’t go with Levis and I have no idea how it’s going to turn out but there’s a philosophical argument to take a quarterback even if you don’t believe in him because you recognize that nobody can predict which QBs are going to be good. If the best offensive mind in the world drafted Trey Lance, anyone can be wrong. If a completely befuddled franchise picked CJ Stroud (when there were reports that they only did it because the owner demanded it) then maybe the way we should look at QB is that you can only win the lottery if you play.

John… Where is Davenport?

He’s around. He suffered a high ankle sprain that required surgery so it will depend on how he recovers but we could see him back before the end of the season. That would be a big boost.

Dustin… I have heard multiple different podcasts and radio shows talking about how there are so many starting quarterbacks out for the season across the league. I have also heard that the NFL will likely go to an 18 games season in the future. Do you believe they will go to an 18 game season and when do you think that will happen?

I do think they will go to 18 games eventually but it has to come along with double bye weeks or something because it’s insane to make teams play that much without extra time to heal up. I had an idea awhile back about playing half the season in the spring and half in the fall. Play the first half of the season from March to June and then the rest from September until December and make the Super Bowl on New Year’s Day. The draft can be in July.

On the injury front, it seems wild this year but in 2022 there were 84 QBs who started a game. This season so far 70 different QBs have started a game. It’s been the high profile nature of Rodgers, Cousins, Burrow etc. suffering season-enders that’s made it seem more unusual than it actually is.

Nate… maybe you can look at the stats and compare Brian O’Neill this year compared to past years to me it feels like he hasn’t been as good maybe still recovering from his injury from last year

Something has definitely changed in recent weeks. He’s only graded above 70 by PFF one time since Week 7 and has given up 5+ pressures twice and 2 sacks twice, which is very unusual for him. Through the first six weeks O’Neill was the 6th overall ranked tackle but since Week 7 he’s 35th. The competition has been tough but I have to think there’s something he’s been battling along the way or he’s gotten worn down because of missing basically the entire offseason. Maybe this ankle sprain will actually help him get rested up.

Chuck… Which defender's performance this season is more a case of Flores magic vs. genuine improvement/ability? I am thinking of the DL/Edge in particular-old friend DJ Wonnum does have 7 sacks, but PFF grade is about what it's always been.

It’s funny, Wonnum had the same number of pressures last year in fewer snaps but there is a decent gap in his run defense, which has been noticeable. I don’t think any player’s performance can be only explained by one thing. Flores’ magic might just be that he identified how good Josh Metellus was at football or that Cam Bynum was better at playing aggressively than sitting in the parking lot all day waiting for the ball to come his way. Or it might be that Metellus and Bynum had been steadily getting better and it was the right time for them to get in the game. If they had played two years ago, does it look like this? It’s very hard to pick apart the percentages of cause-effect. These guys were all drafted because the scouts believed in their talent at one point, so it might be the convergence of development, opportunity, timing and scheme.

@jrm531 What is the pie chart percentage for Brady signing an NDA weeks ago in the event the Vikings make the playoffs? But seriously, does bringing Dobbs in help KOC/scouting team when assessing possible qb draft picks? Maybe avoid some possible pitfalls regarding intelligence/mobility?

I’m going to die on the hill that they should keep calling Brady every week until he says yes. Have Gene Hackman give him the same speech he gave Keanu to get him to join The Replacements.

They would be making a mistake to use the Josh Dobbs experience to evaluate anything for the future. Backups are way to volatile. From my perspective, I do think it showed that an O’Connell quarterback is going to need arm talent and precision in the pocket but that’s like… all quarterbacks. Even Lamar Jackson has to be a really good pocket passer to win. I don’t think it’s talking out of both sides of your mouth to question the Vikings not making bigger changes to fit to Dobbs and saying that this offense works with a good quarterback.

@tony_trout Don’t you kind of think the Vikings playoff hopes hinge on the Bengals game? They lose, they think about starting Hall. They win, they ride Mullens till they clinch

Yes and no. By the numbers, they just need two. The order doesn’t matter. But if they lose and then need to win two of three division games against teams with healthy QBs, that could be pretty tough. I don’t think they’ll start Hall unless they are either clinched or out.

@DoctorHP… if you combined all 3 active QBs in a horrible science experiment, would the result be a good QB? before it melted that is

So you would take the rocket science brain, Mullens’ accuracy and experience in the offense, Dobbs’ arm strength and speed and Hall’s… well, I’m not sure what you take from Hall exactly because I’ve seen him run two drives. The combination would be a starting quarterback, not a great starting quarterback. I’m not sure that either guy is sharp enough accuracy wise or good enough with decisions in the moment to avoid turning the ball over. They are both really rough under pressure. It might be like Kenny Pickett or Gardner Minshew level with rushing ability.

Thomas… With the news today that Dobbs is the 3rd QB on the depth chart will we see him ask for his release? Can't imagine he wants to end his roller coaster of a season on a low note versus potentially starting somewhere else for a QB-needy team and ending on a higher note. For those that would scoff at the idea of him starting for another team this year - Ryan Mallett (RIP) was cut by the Texans in Oct 2015, signed by the Ravens in mid-December, started 2 games for them that year and was their primary back-up the following season.

Nah, he won’t ask for his release. If he did that, he can kiss his career goodnight. Backup QBs need to be able to handle decisions like this, it’s part of the gig. Even if he does, I’m sure they would say no. Mullens and Hall have already gotten hurt

Bradley P… I’m a KOC apologist but I can’t help think he has some learning to do. See the Browns, on their fourth quarterback of the year. Their offense isn’t an embarrassment, even through most would argue it has less talent. What gives?

In the previous three games before last week the Browns scored 13, 12 and 19 points with backup QBs. Their total team passer rating is 69.1, which ranks 32nd in the NFL. There is one team that ranks in the top 10 that has played a backup QB for more than four games and that is…. the Minnesota Vikings. Are you wrong for questioning the approach over the last two weeks with Dobbs? Definitely not. I would too. But if we try to make this about anything more than trying to hit a dart board in the dark when it comes to scheming around a backup quarterback, then we’re going too far overreacting to what we just saw.

Matthew… Is this the season where just the teams with healthy QBs left standing will be going anywhere in the post season?

I don’t want to jinx anything because at least most of the best teams in the league still have their quarterbacks. The teams that got knocked out because of QB injuries — unless something wild happens — are really the Bengals, Browns, Jets and Vikings. If the Ravens and 49ers play for the Super Bowl I’m not going to think back on this season and say geesh they only got there because of QB injuries.

Nick… Would you take the 2 year 60 million with 37.5 guaranteed for Kirk like PFF Brad suggested? Does it matter to you if it comes with another NTC?

I wouldn’t do that, no. We have already seen the ceiling and even trying to project next year considering the injury and age is really hard to do. Plus it’s still the same old problem. If they bring him back, then they can’t spend on free agency, which might mean Danielle Hunter or more pass rush or another defensive back or another guard or a receiver to replace KJ Osborn or whatever else they need. Plus, I think that number is low (not to question Brad here, he’s great). I can see as many as four or five teams considering him and I don’t know how he could accept less than Daniel Jones or Derek Carr got.

Jeff… Talk me into KOC finally sticking with the running game for more than 2 seconds.

If they had Alexander Mattison, then maybe I could try to make some sort of case that they are going to try to build everything this week off play-action but that’s just not who they are. The Vikings are fourth most pass-heavy offense in terms of run-pass ratio. When Mullens came in last week KOC just started pushing the pass button over and over regardless of the fact the guy hadn’t thrown a pass since Week 18 against Chicago last year. It’s an offense built on Kirk Cousins throwing to Justin Jefferson and creating explosive plays, not slamming the ball up the middle and running bootlegs.