Friday Mailbag: Fixing... everything

Fans have a LOT of questions about things in need of change with the Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Speedi… I listened to the podcast on vikings draft. The solution to vikings weak drafts seemed to be more picks. Really? Did we learn nothing fron trader Rick’s 10 plus pick drafts yielding a bunch of “guys”? How about the problem is not enough drafts picks in the first 3 rounds where the good players are. Trading down has not worked out well for the Vikes starting in 2022.

That’s not what I said. Rick constantly traded down in the middle and later rounds in order to pick up a bunch of sixth and seventh-round picks that had about the same chance to work out as any solid UDFA prospect. Rick actually had the same problem as Kwesi with an extreme lack of high picks.

As I mentioned on the show, the Vikings have drafted 8 top-100 prospects since 2022. Rick actually had the same problem. He only took 11 top-100 players in his final three drafts. The Lions have taken 15, the Packers have taken 16 since 2022.

Earlier this year, PFF published this chart of hit rates based on where players were picked. Shocker, the higher you pick, the better the chances of success.

If you never draft in the top 10 and don’t have any top-100 picks, we’re talking about very, very low percentages.

Certainly 2022 was some biblical stuff to have every one of those players fail, but even if you look at where Cine and Booth Jr. were picked (32, 42), you’re talking about 50% and under 40%.

Now let’s do Vikings 2023 draft. Picks 23, 102, 134, 141, 164, 222. You’re looking at about 60%, 15%, 10%, 7%, 3%, 1%.

Now let’s do the Detroit 2023 draft. Picks 12, 18, 34, 45, 68, 96, 152, 219. By approximate percentages: 65%, 60%, 50%, 40%, 25%, 15%, 5%, 1%.

So the Vikings had one player 15% or higher (Jordan Addison) and Detroit had five.

Bottom line:

Here’s the truth about the Vikings drafting since 2022: They have failed because it’s not how they chose to build their team and they have had bad luck.

Nobody likes those explanations, but they are the reality. Had they elected to tear the roster limb for limb, tank for two years, stock draft picks and slowly build the roster through the draft, then we’d probably be having a different conversation.

They chose to go with a “competitive rebuild” route. That meant trading away picks for win-now players (TJ Hockenson, most notably) and signing free agents / keeping their own players, which meant never getting compensatory picks or trading away guys in big deals like Detroit did with Matthew Stafford or Chicago did with Khalil Mack.

Here’s another thing: They just keep cutting these players. When you are in win-now mode, there is no patience, no development. This regime came in, cut everybody from the 2021 class, and then chopped all the 2022 picks and most of the 2023 picks. I’m not saying that the players were looking amazing but we’ve seen guys like Josh Metellus develop. Clipping Akayleb Evans for Fabian Moreau or Mekhi Blackmon in favor of Jeff Okudah isn’t going to help you get more draft “hits.”

To the question of what they could do better in the future: Get more picks, get luckier, be patient.

I know a lot of you guys want to fire people or say that Kwesi is incapable of drafting (though I’m pretty sure there are a lot more folks involved than just one person) or you can look for actual answers.

tbird… I know O’Connell’s career with the Vikings will most likely be tied to McCarthy, but say McCarthy isn’t the guy, we find that out this year, and then we move on ahead. What is your opinion on how the expectations set by the Wilfs change when you have a Coach of the Year HC with a win-record as good as O’Connell’s, but the QB pick fails? Would O’Connell be given enough leeway to truly try again with a different QB before immediately being on the hotseat?

From a general philosophical standpoint, I’m much more in the camp of keeping good coaches as long as you can. The Marvin Lewis example always stood out to me. The Bengals built up a contender with Carson Palmer, then went through some tough times and then built another contender with Andy Dalton. They knew Marvin was a good coach and they let him work through the tough years.

Everyone loves a good coach firing because it feels great to tar and feather somebody at town square but when you look at coaching hires, they are as unpredictable as drafting.

Look at the 2022 class of coaches: Josh McDaniels, Doug Pederson, Matt Eberflus, Dennis Allen, Mike McDaniel, Lovie Smith, Nate Hackett, Brian Daboll.

Out of that list, six are fired, two are on the hot seat right now and there’s Kevin O’Connell.

It would be absurd to completely tie O’Connell to McCarthy when we’ve seen a 13 and 14-win season from QBs they found outside the building.

At the same time, KOC was extremely involved in the QB decision to draft McCarthy and let Darnold walk.

Just because I don’t think that firing coaches is always the answer doesn’t mean he gets a free pass from criticism if this thing falls apart.

For me, coach firings should only happen when it feels like there has to be a major organizational shift (i.e. the bottom totally fell out) or building has lost control or the coach has proven to be incompetent. We’re not there.

Eldon…Do you think that the Vikings will trade anyone at the deadline?

If they lose against Detroit, it certainly becomes possible. Jalen Nailor makes the most sense. A team like San Francisco could be looking for another receiver with all their injuries.

I could see them trying to shop guys that they aren’t going to keep long term. Whether they can get any buyers on a Javon Hargrave or TJ Hockenson, I’m not sure.

If they beat Detroit, I wouldn’t expect them to do anything at the deadline unless there is some type of long-term option player. If it’s someone (a corner?) who could be on the team in 2026, they might take a shot at that.

Matt D…Anything that the Lions have struggled with lately that you think McCarthy can take advantage of?

The biggest thing is probably Detroit being banged up. They won’t have Kerby Joseph, so that means playing a backup safety. Terrion Arnold might return but he hasn’t been very good at any point in his career so far. Their front-seven is one of the best in football but there are some weaknesses on the back end.

It’s all about getting McCarthy time to throw and creating free releases for Justin Jefferson where he can’t be mugged by Amik Robertson.

Rainyday21…Do you think that Flores is asking too much of Dallas Turner by having him drop into coverage? What do the numbers say about Dallas Turners effectiveness when dropping into coverage? Does he do this more than other Edge defenders?

He really hasn’t been asked to drop into coverage very much. He’s only dropped back 46 times, which works out to about six times per game. Van Ginkel was in coverage 212 times last year.

It’s actually a major part of the problem with the defense. AVG was an absolute nightmare for opposing QBs. They never had a clue whether he was going to be rushing from the outside, up the middle or dropping back into the middle of the field or into the flat.

Where it’s unfortunate for Turner is that he’s been forced to play in a totally different role that he was playing in OTAs, minicamp, training camp. He was supposed to be rotating in on pass rush downs and then playing at the same time as Greenard and AVG to completely mind-bleep opponents. Now he’s just had to be a 60-snap defensive end.

Where I’d be pretty concerned is that his pass rush win rate is not good. It’s 88th out of 120 full-time and part-time rushers. That’s not what they were expecting when he was picked. That said, he’s not even 23 years old yet.

Ben…I feel like some fans don’t like KOC because he’s not blowing a gasket on the podium when the team doesn’t play well ( his predecessor was doing that and lost respect really quick from the team) but do you think is true test will come in how he handles these final 10 games??

Always and forever: If the team is winning, then whatever style the coach uses is brilliant and if the team is losing, then whatever style the coach uses is stupid.

That’s just how it goes. Football is the ultimate overreaction sport.

I do think we’re going to learn something over the final 10 games. This is the first extreme adversity that he’s faced. In 2023, we all knew that it was better to lose some games and draft higher in order to take a QB.

This year the expectations were sky high and McCarthy was/is supposed to be the future. If they finish with five wins and McCarthy doesn’t look like the guy, it’s a tough, tough scene.

It’s not just about winning games going forward but also keeping the house in order. As we saw from Zimmer, drama can get out of hand when the team is losing. You can’t have the walls caving in.

Jason… How does your viewership/listener count/readership do when the team is struggling like it is? I was curious because I am less engaged with the team when it feels like it does now.

Well, the first two years of Purple Insider were just about the most miserable seasons possible (2020 and 2021), so I think it says something about the die-hard nature of Minnesota Vikings fans that I was able to built the platform into a sustainable business during those extremely rough times.

That said, when they are losing, the engagement does fade significantly. Sadly, my best two months this year will probably be March and August.

I appreciate all of you who continue to read/listen through the ups and downs.

Bradley P… Your conversation with Chris was really enlightening. I honestly think the Vikings brass thought this was their window and went full Rams. From trading the two seconds for Houston’s first, to the boatload for Turner, etc. I’m hoping they realize the error of that thought and keep picks this year and in the future. Thoughts?

Is it a blessing in disguise that Flores wasn’t signed to an extension?

I understand why they did the Houston first-round thing. They probably thought they might have a chance at trading up for Drake Maye or they figured that if somebody was going to jump them for McCarthy that they would need to send another first-round pick in order to jump up and get him. They couldn’t walk out of that draft without a QB.

The full-Rams thing is somewhat true. Making trades with picks in order to get more proven players and then going on a spending spree this offseason was an all-in type of thing but they thought they’d be creating a 2-3 year window around McCarthy’s rookie contract. That was the right thing to do. The problem is that McCarthy hasn’t played and the money was probably just spent in the wrong place. The veteran DTs haven’t had the impact they thought and the secondary has looked way different without Cam Bynum, Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin.

Is it a blessing that he isn’t signed? I’m not sure. We can’t throw out the vast majority of Flores’ time here because a few games have gone catastrophically this year. But if things continue down this path, it may feel like time to make a change.

Derrick K…I think Flo’s defensive gameplan is something to watch, especially with recent performances and history against Detroit. Talk me into the defense rebounding this week, and coach Flores looking like an elite defensive coordinator again. We know he’s willing to switch things up, but who knows what he’s got up his sleeve. Sure, turnovers are huge, and a better offense performance goes a long ways. Is there anything else, or is it that simple?

It’s always the players and not the plays. I’ll say it forever. When he had the guys to do what he wanted to do, they looked great. When he hasn’t, they’ve been much worse.

As far as this week, it’s all about pressuring Goff into a big mistake. They did it in Week 18 last year and Goff’s PFF grade under pressure this year is a 30.5. He has a 58.5 QB rating when under pressure as well.

How will he do that? They have to know that Detroit is going to attack the middle with their play-action stuff. Dropping somebody into that area with tampa-2 type action might be a thing. They also might just send a bunch of zero blitzes with hopes of hitting a home run. It seems like sacks/turnovers are the only chance they really have versus an offense this good.

Al N…Is there any explanation for the up-and-down nature of Vikings’ seasons? They swing from high win totals to mediocrity almost every year. They have not had 2 straight playoff seasons since 2009, nor have they missed the playoffs 3 straight seasons since 2007. A lot of their regular seasons have been exceptionally high with win totals of 13 or more 3 times in the last 8 years, yet they inevitably follow those up with lousy seasons. Truly good teams have stretches of multiple years near the top. Is there any reason or is it all just random good and bad luck?

Yep. It’s the lack of a franchise quarterback.

The only teams who consistently make the playoffs are the Bills/Chiefs/Ravens and I suppose in the NFC you can say the Packers/Rams.

For most of my adult life, it was Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger making it every single year and then the rest of the league going along with the roller coaster.

The Vikings tend to always be good, so when things break right for them with the schedule and health, they can get really good QB play and win a bunch of games. But regression with scheduling and health are real. When those things drift back the other way, the Vikings get hit in the face. They also tend to believe the previous year’s results and make big moves expecting everything to go right again (they didn’t from 2022 to 2023, which was smart).

WinRank…Is it possible: Split all division games- with the win at Chicago that’s 2-3 in division games the rest of the way. Win all 5 remaining non-division games- not likely but not impossible either. If I tally correctly, that’s 10-7 which should get them into the playoffs. ???

Is it possible? Yes. For a team with this much talent to go 7-3 the rest of the way is hardly impossible. It just doesn’t feel likely because you’d need McCarthy to be excellent, the defense to completely turn around and get some good luck with injuries and opponents’ health.

If there was any data points that said “hey this team is actually good!” then I’d feel OK with telling fans to keep their heads up. But when they have only led for 6 quarters all year, it’s really hard to find where the turnaround comes from. Crazier things have happened though.

Brent M… 1) I like KOC as a coach, but get frustrated with his play calling. Do you think he is lacking a feel for the game in making (or not making) adjustments, or does he just believe/trust that his guys will make it work?

2) One of Flores’ strengths, as has been noted many times, is his ability to scout players that fit his scheme. I feel like he is able to ID areas of weakness and pursue players to address it (I know that has not worked out well to this point this year for many reasons, but still see that as a strength. Do you feel that KOC and/or Kwesi will be able to do this on the offensive side? (i.e., to make his play calling more effective)

Question 1:

I think that when teams play their backup QBs, coaches look foolish and we grasp at straws to try to explain it in any other way than saying “welp, backup QB.” What fun would football be if we didn’t have a lot more to say about it? (Says me, daily podcaster).

KOC’s play calling last year led to 14 wins and a top-10 QB season by Sam Darnold. His late-game play calling in particular, has been outstanding Their QBs, including McCarthy Week 1, consistently have answers for opponents in the biggest moments.

When people say “lack of adjustments,” it’s pretty vague, so I’m not sure exactly what you mean. I can come up with specific individual games where they couldn’t find answers during the game. But they’ve also been able to come back in a lot of games too, so I don’t know how to put my finger on that.

I think there’s something to be said for not being able to truly address the issue of QBs being sacked all the time in this offense. Bo Nix has been sacked 8 times all year. JJ McCarthy got sacked 9 times in his first two games.

When every QB they have had ends up struggling with sacks, there’s a change that has to be made there and it doesn’t seem that they’ve ever found it.

We blame the O-line over and over and over but at some point there’s something schematic that’s causing this problem and they’ve never been able to address it. That’s the adjustment I’d like to see.

Question 2 — The offensive personnel is fantastic. I don’t know what they are supposed to do differently. When healthy, they have elite tackles, megastar receivers, two good tight ends, a quality first-round guard, a 17-million dollar guard who’s been decent.

What’s really questionable is whether a defensive coordinator has magic powers. It feels like, as good as Flores has been with player evaluation, the idea that he could turn some guys into something that they never were before was dubious.

Bill W… If we need another QB to compete with (or replace) JJ next year, where would we get one? Trade? Draft?

Put this one down for me: Bryce Young, Minnesota Viking 2026.

Honestly, it’s too early for this. We have to see how other situations play out around the league before we can know who’s really going to be available.

Brad L… Why do we have RBs on our roster? They don’t really seem to want to run the ball. Is somebody allergic to run plays? Or something else going on talent wise that causes them to avoid running the ball?

Yeah, not running on third-and-1 with Jordan Mason on Thursday was pretty rough, as was avoiding him on second-and-1 at the goal line the other day.

At the same time, they have been down in so many games that there hasn’t been much opportunity to ground-and-pound. They were down to Philly 14-3 early, down to the Chargers instantly. Plus, it’s not easy to run with backup O-linemen.

That said, we can pretty much put any nail in the coffin of the idea that this is going to be a run-heavy team. It’s a QB-led team. They need their QB to be good to win.

Arin J…WTH is wrong with the defense that Flores cannot improve? Tighter coverage? Stopping the run? The big ask can we see improvement from some players? Theo Harrison, Isiah, Dallas,and some of the backup. Detroit is a big issue can they show improvement?

It’s everything. Teams being in favorable situations to take advantage of this team on the ground, guys not performing to their expected level, injuries, allowing great players like AJ Brown to beat them one-on-one. Also it’s hard to be a good defense when your offense doesn’t give you any help. Cleveland is super talented and they rank 20th in points allowed.

Can they fix it? I’d say that they can fix some of it with AVG coming back and some adjustments. Can they fix all of it? Probably not. What they need is the offense to outscore some folks and put the D in spots where they can dial up crazy blitzes.

CJ M… Bad news: Justin Jefferson has only 1 touchdown this year. Good news: It happened during JJ’s sensational 4th quarter in Week 1. Does the “JJ reset” bode well for “Jefferson Jail” going on hiatus for the rest of the season, or nah?

Their chemistry in the first two weeks wasn’t exactly stellar, so I’m not totally sold. You can bet with the history of Jefferson against Detroit that they’re going to gameplan for a bunch of man coverage stuff and try to push the ball to him. If he doesn’t get 10 targets, something went very wrong.

Rzuppelli…. I am no mathematician, but by my count Bo Nix has had more starts in college than JJ has NFL snaps. Could people please chill the F out with the Nix/JJ comps?

We all need to see McCarthy play before we can compare him to anybody.

However, when they could have picked Nix, who threw 45 TD and 3 INT and never took sacks in college, and he’s out here winning game after game, it’s pretty tough to say DONT LOOK AT THAT!

Scott M… The NFL is always entertaining with upsets happening every week. I dont think it would be unreasonable to see the Vikings win this week, less than a coin flip odds for sure but not unreasonable. If that happens, what are you writing about in your post game article?

This could be a moot point by tomorrow but as of today Isaiah Rodgers has 2 LP practices and Okudah 2 DNPs. As Sirles mentioned on the pod this week, LP has a huge range of possibilities. If both are ruled out, whose playing DB and how can Flores try to paste over it, if at all?

When something is a 30% chance, that means it happens as often as a base hit in 1997. Certainly it’s possible they win.

If they win, I’ll write after the game that they have a chance to get rolling with JJ McCarthy and still have some semblance of the season we all expected.

If it’s Dwight McGlothern, I’ll be intrigued. The guy is a playmaker. But I assume if Rodgers is playing that we’ll just see mostly three safety looks.

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