Friday Mailbag: Final questions before camp begins

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday folks. Think about this: The next time that there is a Friday mailbag without football practice or games will be in January. Let’s go.

Bradley P… Help me understand how coached like Matt Eberflus and Kliff Kingsbury go from respected defensive and offensive coaches enough to get head coaching jobs to just being awful, albeit both are still assistant head coaches for respected organizations.

A few things come to mind. First is that the league is always changing. If a coach has something work for them and then the rest of the NFL adapts and they don’t make changes, they are going to fall behind very quickly. So maybe Kliff Kingsbury’s offense had merit but opposing teams were able to decode it and then it didn’t work as well after that.

The other thing is circumstances with the roster. During Kingsbury’s two good years in Arizona, they had strong rosters and Kyler played well overall but in 2022 they were 31st in defense and DeAndre Hopkins only played nine games and the whole thing became a mess.

With Eberflus, it’s a little hard to understand how he got a head coaching job since the Indy defenses were never that great but he was considered to be a strong defensive mind and his teams gave the Vikings some fits along the way. But being a good defensive mind doesn’t make you a great head coach and it never seemed like he understood how to command a room and operate a franchise from the top. And then in Dallas that roster was so atrocious in the secondary when he took over that I’m not sure what could be done with it.

Fit and circumstances are really important to coaching success just like they are to player success. There’s a lot of coaches who are B- type talents that could look like B+ or A level talent with the right players and fit or can look like a D- with the wrong players or fit.

And there’s very few people who are cut out to be head coaches.

Matt D… Time to figure out who we should be zeroing in on at training camp. Aside from the QBs, who is the guy who will have the biggest impact on the team if he hits his upside? Might be the same guy, but who would have the biggest negative impact if he fails to hit his upside?

I’m sure you’ve answered this a hundred times already, but when do you see them making the QB decision? With the two division games to start the season, I don’t think they can afford to hold off too long before they declare a QB1.

The most obvious answer for both questions is Caleb Banks. If we see him dominating during training camp, that’s going to bode extremely well for the regular season especially with the quality of O-linemen he’s going to face with the first team. If he can become a force, then the chances of the front seven being very good increase significantly. If he struggles in camp and it doesn’t look like he’s ready to be an impact player, we’re probably talking about them needing a lot of others on the D-line to step up in order to make up the difference.

I don’t think there’s a bigger swing player than him when it comes to how we feel coming out of camp because with someone like Dallas Turner we have already seen them play and won’t be moved much based on camp alone, that can only happen in season. But if you’re talking about in the season too, Turner will be massive. If he gets 12.0 sacks or something, they’ll be cooking. If he’s just OK, it’s going to be hard to have a top-notch defense.

I would be surprised if KOC declared the starting quarterback officially before the end of training camp but I’m expecting it to be clear by the third week of camp. In the first week, we’ll see them without pads and it’ll likely be a 50-50 split and then when the pads come on the evaluation really begins and then the third week is when we get preseason action. If Kyler is getting most of the reps and starting the preseason game and playing one or two series, then it will tell us the story.

Douglas J… Assuming Kyler is here beyond 2026 would you consider trading a 1st for Bijan Robinson?

That would really depend on how close they were to being a championship contender. If Kyler was a top 10 quarterback in 2026 and a bunch of other things came together to look like they were super close, then I’d consider it. You’d need Turner and Banks to be awesome, the offensive line to look awesome and other draft picks from 2026 to show promise and look like it’s going to be a complete roster.

Robinson would be an exception when it comes to acquiring a running back because he’s A) elite B) 24 years old. If you acquired him at 25, he would probably have three to four more seasons of being elite in front of him. And oftentimes the all-time great RBs, which he has the potential to be, last a little longer than your average/typical RB in the same way that AP led the NFL in rushing at 30.

It’s probably more realistic to draft your own running back with a second-round pick than to trade for Bijan. But I have come around to thinking of things as three-year windows when it comes to team building. Rosters just don’t stay together for more than three years so if you can grab any player who has absolutely elite top-five talent in the NFL even if he might only be elite for three more years then you should do it.

Jimmy B… Well Matthew by now you know I don’t like asking the same question as everyone else just repackage. Lol My first question is, how does the money work for training camp? Players that don’t have current contracts with the team. How do expenses get handled for players that are invited to camp? Is there a flat fee paid to the player and they pay for there expenses? Etc? Does that money come from the salary cap?

Everyone on the 90-man roster has a contract with the team. The only time there are tryouts is in rookie minicamp. Those contracts come with signing bonuses. I believe there is a limit on total signing bonuses for a UDFA class. So let’s say that’s $200,000 and they give their top two or three guys $50K and then the lesser guys like $5,000.

During camp, everything is taken care of for the players in terms of living. They stay in the hotel and they can eat at the team facility and all that stuff. If you’re a UDFA who makes the team, then your contract kicks in for something like $900K or whatever it is this year. If you make the practice squad, it’ll be like $100K.

The salary cap only counts the top 51 players on the roster.

Wade C…. More of a suggestion than a question. It would be pretty cool for you and a guest pick the schedule for the all the NFC North teams. Games between the division have to have the same winner!

Are we in for a Wade Wilson/Tommy Kramer year? Both do well and they pick the wrong QB in the playoffs.

That would be some type of epic podcast but it sounds like a great challenge. Fun idea!

That’s a great callback with Wade Wilson adn Tommy Kramer. There is definitely a scenario where Kyler isn’t healthy for the full season and JJ ends up playing intermitently and it isn’t totally clear which guy is the better choice to win with at the end of the season. I was thinking the worst case might be something like Tavaris Jackson/Gus Frerotte in 2008. Neither guy is really playing that well but the coach is still hanging onto his first-round pick and he gets hot at the end and then falls apart in the playoffs.

There’s a bunch of situations where I’m wondering what they would do. Like if they started out 3-6 with Kyler, would they try to save the season or just go to JJ? Or if they were 10-3 and Kyler got hurt and JJ got them to the playoffs and played well, would they bring back Kyler or JJ in 2027?

It’s all so interesting…

Chris C…. You were talking to that scout that worked under the dreaded Sean Payton and his philosophy of getting up early by explosive pass plays and then ground and pound by running the football to run the clock out. Do you think KOC could lean more into something like that with Kyler?

Also is first half vs second half run/pass ratio under KOC a stat you could provide? It would be interesting to see those metrics from prior years and see how it shakes out this year. To point everyone’s making about KOC running more I could see something like this increasing the run volume assuming we can get up early with Kyler. I know under Zimmer we all got mad he was far too conservative with a lead but I don’t think that’s KOC.