Friday Mailbag: What does Darnold's hot start mean?
Vikings fans are already thinking out toward the future after the QB has gone 2-0
By Matthew Coller
Kris… WARNING - SUPREME OVERREACTION: What would be the requirement for Darnold to sign an extension in the offseason? I say title or bust.
Since we live in a universe of hypotheticals with the NFL, I’m contractually obligated to be fascinated by this scenario and yet I find myself not wanting to go there yet. Can we get a quarter through the season before we start breaking down every possible way this could go?
That’s my official position. But since you asked, the bar is still extremely, extremely high. When Jeff George came in and won a playoff game in ‘99, they still went to Daunte Culpepper the next year. It could be a recreation of that if things go really right for Darnold the rest of the way.
Kyle S… Which 0-2 teams do you think will still make the playoffs, and which 2-0 teams do you think will miss the playoffs?
The Ravens are the obvious pick for an 0-2 start and a playoff berth, though I think they have to be pretty panicked with the way they have started the season. Cincinnati still should make it. I don’t see anyone else unless the Colts get hot behind Richardson. Of the 0-2 teams that could miss the playoffs, I’d start with the Steelers because of their QB situation, then the Chargers because of Herbert’s health. It’s a toss up between the Saints, Bucs and Vikings after that. They are all pretty much looking in the mirror. Whoever gets to 3-0 has their odds skyrocket though.
Geoff… Watching Sam Darnold look quite good these first two weeks, it occurs to me how often this same damn thing has happened with Vikings QBs--some random guy who isn't actually the "franchise QB" playing well, even getting to the playoffs. Going back to my early years as a Vikings fan up to the present, Wade Wilson ('87 version), Jim McMahon, Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Brett Favre, and of course Case Keenum all played as a "not the franchise QB" and made the playoffs (had Sam Bradford stayed healthy in 2017, he'd likely be on the list instead of Case). If Darnold gets them to the playoffs this season (yes--I'm getting ahead of myself!), that would make ten different "random" QBs who took the Vikings to the playoffs going back to 1987. Can any other team compete with that total? And should this pattern make Vikings fans proud or sad?
It’s honestly unbelievable that it keeps happening and largely because they have incredible receivers and good coaches. Think of how few years the Vikings have had a terrible coach or no wide receivers. It’s only a handful ever. Those things are always going to give QBs who are talented enough to be in the league a chance.
As far as other teams like this, the Chiefs used to be the Vikings’ mirror image. They won with Steve DeBerg, old Joe Montana, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green and Alex Smith. I’m not sure any other team comes remotely close. Washington winning a lot with Jay Schroeder, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Brad Johnson and Mark Brunell was something but most of those guys started over multiple seasons. For the Vikings, it’s always one or two years.
Bradley P…. I can’t help but think that — while the news was super disappointing that McCarthy sustained a season ending injury — it’s best for his long term development. The 2021 draft, which was thought of as a banger of a qb draft, has only one player (Trevor Lawrence) still on his original team. What say you?
Drafts are weird like that. Every QB from the 2020 draft got a long-term contract extension. Now that Darnold, Geno and Baker are playing like this, you have to wonder if Mac Jones shows up somewhere. Justin Fields is getting his chance at redemption.
I mostly agree with McCarthy sitting being good for his development but it isn’t apples to apples when we compare him with the other young QBs. Bo Nix’s team is bad. Caleb Williams plays a totally different style than the NFL. Jayden Daniels is doing alright but his team isn’t good either. McCarthy would have stepped into a really good setup if he ended up getting in this year. It’s way different to be him with O’Neill and Darrisaw than to be poor Drake Maye, who is going to get demolished if he plays going forward.
What’s your outlook for the North a year from now, two years from now. I remember reading an article about the Vikings being dead last next year. I don’t agree with that seeing what we have from this team. McCarthy will make half of what Darnold is this year and Captain Check Downs dead cap will be erased.
Someone wrote an article projecting next year’s division? I can’t even predict three weeks from now. It’s pretty easy to make an argument for any one of these teams being very good going forward. The cap space element could allow the Vikings to build a team every bit as strong as the Lions. But maybe we can get through Week 3 before I start guessing at the final 2025 standings. Live for the moment, friends .
Garrett K… Be honest, how hard did you laugh at the “this is why the falcons paid Kirk” and “falcons showing themselves as Super Bowl contenders” headlines. Welcome to the roller coaster Atlanta!
I definitely had flashbacks of 2022 during that Eagles game. It reminded me of Josh Allen somehow fumbling a QB sneak. At least Cousins looked better but if the Eagles don’t completely melt down, the Falcons would have been looking at 0-2 with 15 points on the board that night. I’ll be curious where it goes. The most obvious answer is probably the right one, though.
Denton D… It wasn’t so long ago that the NFL put a premium on specialists. It now seems that the pendulum is swinging towards tweeners and utility knife players that can line up in multiple positions. I love its impact on opposing QBs that seem flustered but this strategy seems susceptible to opposing OCs attempting to isolate an undersized player at a certain position with a power run game for example or perhaps going after tweener LB/S with speed. I trust Flores to stay a step ahead but it seems like a possible concern for the defense
It depends. There is a reason why Brian Flores has run-stopping defensive tackles rather than guys who can get up field. That’s an old Belichick theory. Run stuffers are usually cheaper than pass rushers on the interior of the D-line, so you can stack good ones and have them fill gaps and hold up blockers while your quicker players do their jobs in the run game. They can’t attack Pace Jr. or Metellus in the run game if they can’t get to them. Not to mention, that’s what the Vikings want opponents to do. They’re perfectly fine with opposing teams trying to win the game 4.5 yards at a time. It’s still way more efficient to pass the ball successfully than run successfully. And, how many teams have the rushing attack and patience to hammer it over and over and over? Even if the 49ers got a little antsy when they were plowing on the ground.
If you don’t have the right guys at those versatile/tweener spots, it won’t work though. Guys like Van Ginkel, Cashman and Metellus are tough as heck. That matters.
PurpFoolio… I can’t recall a time where the Vikings won the game following a big unexpected win that made all the media rounds and highlights. I’m fully expecting a blowout loss this week. Talk me into how this time is different.
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