Friday mailbag: Emergency players, Cook's future and fumbling problems

Camp rolls on and people have lots of fun questions

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Well folks, the Vikings went without pads on Thursday so it was a mostly uneventful workout. Some veterans appeared to have a light workload that wasn’t injury related, giving some guys like new safety Steven Parker a few reps with the first team. Will have more notes after tomorrow’s practice. For now, let’s see what’s on all of your minds…

@rufiox3 Read buzz from pff that vikings might be in on Ngakoue. Would really be interested in your take on that scenario and the swing for defensive projection.

For clarity’s sake: What Brad Spielberger from PFF said was that Ngakoue might make sense. It wasn’t a report, just a suggestion. It’s a great question though because the thing about defense is that one player would never majorly swing a defense’s projection but there could be a domino effect to having someone like Ngakoue versus Ifeadi Odenigbo.

The first part of that is we know Ngakoue will bring pressure. In 2017 he was top 10 in pressure rate and 12th in 2018. Last year his numbers dipped a bit but Ngakoue was still very effective on a bad team. As they said in Tommy Boy, the guarantee is on the box. We don’t know if Odenigbo will be able to put up the same type of numbers as he did in a situational role last year.

Ngakoue taking over one side would allow Odenigbo to continue to move around and rush from the inside in certain situations. He could basically take the Brian Robison 2017 job. That would make the D-line as a whole better because they presently don’t have a sure thing interior rusher on third downs. (Cool side note, Ngakoue is younger than Odenigbo).

While coverage is king and a lot of analytical folks would tell you that trading for Ngakoue might not be the most prudent move, you’d be hard pressed to convince me that having him and Hunter split the attention of opposing offensive lines wouldn’t help the cornerbacks do their job better.

Now is all that worth trading a first or second-round pick and paying him $20 million a year and then also having to re-work Hunter’s contract? Probably not. Last year there were 45 players who pressured the QB on at least 6% of drop backs (Ngakoue was 6.5%).

Still the attractive part of that is still that the Vikings would be set for a very long time at defensive end.

@JoshuaR_Smith: In the event of a catastrophic injury (or virus) rash among one position group on the team, which Vikings player might be best suited to make a switch and contribute on the OTHER side of the ball?

I sat and thought about this one for far longer than I should have. Troy Brown did it once upon a time for the Patriots and Deion was basically the only modern two-way player but it’s an incredibly tough task.

I’ll say Mike Boone could play cornerback or safety. The dude has a 42 inch vertical jump and quickness to run with any receiver. He’s strong enough to come up in the box and make a tackle if they needed him at safety.

Eric Wilson could play offense if you need. He was a wide receiver in high school (teaser: look out for my story on this very subject coming soon) and is the size of a big running back and just as fast as most runners.

Anthony Barr briefly played running back at UCLA. He has good enough hands to maybe play fullback or tight end. Anthony Harris might also profile as an undersized tight end. Maybe Mike Hughes could be a slot receiver.

Let’s hope this situation stays hypothetical.

@Rattleclaw1 Do you think the Vikings’ plan is to spend this year developing/evaluating talent & rolling over cap space to set the team up for big moves in 2021 & 2022? I’m not suggesting they’re tanking, but rather that they’re not overextending w/ many young starters in such a weird season

Well, aside from Dalvin Cook there isn’t really anyone else to extend. Stars like Kirk Cousins, Anthony Barr, Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith etc. are under contract and the young guys are on their rookie deals. Next year presents some opportunities to re-work Hunter and Smith’s contracts and create space by moving on from Riley Reiff so they don’t have to be desperately cheap if they want to use the extra space created by Michael Pierce’s opt out.

The question might be whether it’s smarter to make a late-camp splash like signing Logan Ryan or Jadeveon Clowney rather than carrying that cap space to next year’s free agency when they have a much better idea of what holes need to be filled because they let inexperienced guys play in 2020. Seems like a wise approach to let it play out.

That shouldn’t preclude them from adding a veteran situational rusher.

@alexjjlarsen With talk of Marquise Brown packing on 23 lbs in two months and Gronk losing some weight (and an elbow brace), who on the Vikings went through the biggest physical transformation during the off-season? (Hopefully it's positive change, not showing up 20 lbs overweight.)

It’s a little harder to see than years past because we’re farther away but the two obvious ones are Jalyn Holmes, who lost something like 20 pounds to switch back to defensive end and Alexander Hollins, who was the skinniest NFL receiver I’ve ever seen in my life last year and now looks… still pretty light but not record-setting skinny.

Other than that, nobody stands way out. I’m sure Garrett Bradbury is a little more cut based on the usual jump from first to second year. I’m disappointed we couldn’t see exactly how big Michael Pierce looks in person.

@McKinneyMN Over under on Kirk breaking 200 yards rushing this season?

I can’t see it going over. If it goes over, something went really wrong and receivers weren’t getting open. That’s the thing about his career high in 2017: His receiving corps wasn’t very impressive after Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson left and he had to scamper a little more. I think he gets over 100 though.

@CoreyHermanson I remember in May Chad Graff projected KJ Osborn as PR and Ameer Abdullah as KR. Why don't teams have the same guy do both jobs since kickoff returns are rare? Pretty easy to argue Abdullah is the #4 RB, and that roster spot could be used for depth on OL/DL or DB.

Oh how I miss the days of the KR/PR specialist. There aren’t too many guys who have experience doing it anymore. That used to be a real job and now they just throw some young guy back there who’s good with the ball but hasn’t figured out the playbook yet. That’s why the Vikings have been unique with Marcus Sherels hanging around as the punt returner for so many years.

I don’t have a good feeling for whether KJ Osborn becomes the next Sherels or not. We haven’t seen much of live special teams work. Preseason is where you really get the sense for whether someone can return. So if he does get the job it’s almost entirely off what he did in Miami and there are others on the team like Abdullah, Mike Hughes, Chad Beebe etc. who have done it before. Also the practice squad is expanded this year so they don’t have to feel pressure to keep him on the roster if there’s another area that needs to be addressed.

I think Abdullah has a good shot even if kick returning has been devalued in previous years because he can be a situational back. He wasn’t used a ton last year but if you want him to catch passes on third downs etc. and play multiple special teams roles he can. He’s a smart guy too. They usually like to keep smart players.

@jblohse What do you think will have been Zimmers biggest challenge, turning around the D his 1st season or keeping this year's team in the top 10?

The biggest challenge could be playing home games without huge US Bank Stadium crowds. Since US Bank Stadium opened the Vikings are No. 1 in sacks at home and 20th on the road. They’re also fourth in home interceptions and 17th on the road.

Creating pressure without Everson Griffen terrifying the pants off opposing offenses or interior rushers like Tom Johnson or Sheldon Richardson is going to be a tough task even if Danielle Hunter has a great year. Think about the Cardinals last year. Chandler Jones had 19.0 sacks, the next best guy had 5.5 and their defense ranked 28th in points allowed.

The cornerbacks have looked very good so far in camp and they might end up being OK but if the Vikings can’t get pressure with four-man rushes against Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, DeShaun Watson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees etc. it’s going to be a long year.

@DonFromOhio If Cook stays healthy and has a very productive year and they can't come to an agreement on a contract do you see the Vikings franchising him next year?

I think so, yes. The franchise tag for running backs is extremely reasonable ($10.3 million this year) so it would make sense to give themselves that type of security to keep him through another year of his prime and then move on. Right now Cook is still in the hot zone for running backs with the age curve. Even though Todd Gurley went bust early, it’s usually not until age 27 or 28 that the collapse in elite RBs’ production happens. If the Vikings tagged Cook in 2021, he’d be a Viking through age 26.

Paying only around $12 million total for 2020 and 2021 would be an extremely favorable outcome for the Vikings and not so much for Cook. That’s why it still makes sense to me that they find middle ground on an extension eventually.

@ATKing53632390 Does Kirk stop fumbling this season? Is he still the league leader in fumbles?

I love this question. In 2018 it seemed like he was fumbling in disastrous fashion every other game and in 2019 there weren’t many memorable game-altering fumbles. However (Stephen A. Smith voice), Cousins actually had more fumbles in 2019 than 2018 and way more per drop back. In 2018 he had nine while passing 606 times and last year 10 while only passing 444 times. The difference is who recovered them. Cousins only lost three last year but seven the year before. Randomness, everyone!

Cousins is No. 1 in the NFL in fumbles since becoming a starter in 2015 tied with Jameis Winston. So, Vikings fans, pray for good bounces in 2020.

(Side note: Cousins points out himself that the scoring for fumbles can be weird with botched snaps and so forth. But he also had the slowest snap to release in the NFL last year which puts him at risk for fumbles).

@benjackson0812 With Mike Zimmer getting his contract extension, which coach around the league do you think has the hottest hot seat??

I can’t decide whether Doug Marrone is on the hot seat in Jacksonville or if it’s just a dead man walking like John Fox in 2017 after they drafted Mitch Trubisky without telling him. He’s gotta be the odds on favorite to be fired.

Two in the NFC North. If Matt Patricia gets off to a slow start, they could can him in the first half of the year. Matt Nagy might have a little more leeway because he also had nothing to do with drafting Trubisky.

Anthony Lynn could be in trouble in L.A. and it’s almost shocking the Jets haven’t fired Adam Gase yet. Dan Quinn in Atlanta has to start the year hot or he’s out.

Under the radar: Doug Pederson. Maybe he has the job for life because of the Super Bowl but that’s a tough, tough market. If they’re awful, it’s possible they move on.

@davidkan Haven't seen much written about Dom Capers' influence on the defense yet. Anything noticeable?

Even as footbally as I may be, I couldn’t tell you from early camp practices what tweaks they’re using that have been influenced by Capers (it’s also against the media rules for covering camp to write about exact scheme things).

In general, Zimmer always tweaks pressures and “rules,” which are the assignments for specific players when they get certain looks from the offense. Best example is when the Rams smoked them on Thursday Night Football in L.A. and Zimmer changed the way players reacted to receivers or tight ends coming across the formation like that Cooper Kupp touchdown. There will be stuff like that happening all the time and only the players and coaches will know.

Anyway, here’s what Anthony Barr had to say about Capers on Thursday:

“We definitely have a couple of adjustments in terms of front and looks that we’ve put in. In terms of particulars with linebackers, we’re still fairly early into camp. So right now, we’re really just focused on getting back to the basics of what we do here. And then I’m sure as things progress, those more intricate wrinkles will show their heads. Right now, we’re kind of running our base stuff. But like I said, there are a few tweaks here and there that may not be noticeable to the eye right away, but they feel a little different for us on the field.”

@Adder_Iffic Would you rather have a GM that always nails first and second round draft picks but busts every other round, or one that always nails rounds three to seven but busts the first two rounds?

Another great question. I’ll take nailing the first and second rounds all day. The reality of the NFL is that a lot of players can be replaced. Just look at the Vikings. They only pay a handful of guys and rotate everyone else in and out. You can’t replace the type of talent you get in the first and second rounds.

The ceiling on those players is going to be much higher. Even though the Vikings have done an amazing job of finding Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, Anthony Harris etc., that doesn’t happen all the time. It does happen all the time that first and second rounders become superstars. You can fill out the roster with quality UDFA pickups or veteran free agent signings. But you’re finding the freaks in the first round.

@jrm531 You and @CourtneyRCronin have spoke about in the past, your initial eye test in camp.. 2 years ago it looked like maybe it could be a long year. Last year you said it looked better. Obviously, anything can happen, and it’s a weird year, but how’s that camp eye test thus far?

Definitely a weird year. The early returns are that they look like a good team with some players that I’m still very unsure about. Holton Hill, for example, is off to a good start. Does it stay that way? Justin Jefferson looks like he’s ready to be a good player out of the gate. Will he truly be ready when facing another team? Is Irv Smith Jr. actually going to take that next step (that we are definitely seeing so far)?

The biggest thing is Gary Kubiak and Mike Zimmer have everyone on the same page with the offense and defense. You don’t see many times where they look discombobulated or the offense is fumbling around in situational drills. Again, that’s very, very early returns.

My initial pick for this team was 10-6 and I wouldn’t stray far from it at the moment.

@vikesfan1930 What is a "typical milkshake bet" between you and another reporter? Who's is your pick for Mr. Mankato Also- I tried your tip on Madden. I have 2(1s, 2's.) rd picks plus a 92 Rb who wants a 96m contract. Time to trade away or get cheap

As the team likes to say: We’re going to keep the milkshake bets internal. Chad Graff called it out on Twitter, so I had to pimp that home run but I’d be in trouble with the beat crew if I gave away the tricks of the trade.

To your Mr. Mankato question…my understanding is that the rules are third-round picks or later, so right now Cam Dantzler is running away with it. I’ve always felt third round was too early, so I’ll say that Kenny Willekes wins it by working his way into a rotational role. Alexander Hollins would be another good Mr. Mankato pick.

I love tearing down my Madden teams and building them up from scratch. Try winning with the oldest QB on the game. Trade for Matt Schaub or something. It’s always rewarding to win a Madden Super Bowl with some guy who has bad ratings and deserves that thing for being around forever.

@BIG_dannn In the couple days of padded practices from what you see.. have the Vikings helped the oline by releasing Josh Kline or have they made it worse?

Since nobody picked up Josh Kline, I wonder about his health and whether he would have been able to be effective anymore. Overall I thought he was alright last year. Did they improve without him? Not unless Pat Elflein is much better at right guard than left guard. In 2019 Kline was 45th out of 63 guards in pass blocking efficiency (per PFF), which sounds bad (and it is) but Elflein was 62nd. Dozier didn’t have enough snaps to qualify but his pass blocking efficiency was the worst in the NFL of players who had at least 150 snaps.

That doesn’t sound like an upgrade. But if Ezra Cleveland and/or Dru Samia eventually come along and they turn things over to either or both eventually, there’s a shot they’ll be better. Right now the expectation is that they’ll be about the same and Gary Kubiak will have to do everything he can to help protect Kirk Cousins with scheme.

@PalpatinesRobes Who are the top three reasonably priced free agents the Vikings could add to solidify the roster?

Does Terrell Suggs, Jabaal Sheard or Cameron Wake still want to play? Let’s count those guys as one. Unless they believe strongly in Eddie Yarbrough, a proven monster situational rusher is still a need.

If they wanted Ron Leary they probably would have signed him by now but if you need an explanation on that one, see the previous answer.

Even though the corners have been better than expected early on, Ross Cockrell is a very experienced and versatile veteran corner. He would be my pick as depth to solidify the group.

@robbQthibault Who will be our fifth-string COVID quarterback (assuming we will keep the four I’m aware of on the roster)?

I've never asked about the emergency QB. My guess is Adam Thielen because he knows the offense well enough to at least hand off a bunch of times. Justin Jefferson looks like a guy who could play any position but they wouldn’t do that to a rookie.

I doubt it would ever get to that point. They would sign someone. Maybe Shaun Hill could come off the couch and win a game or two for them. Or Josh Johnson. He has played for every team except the Vikings.

@ST7cubs 10 years ago the Vikings celebrated their 50 greatest players ever for their 50th anniversary. Which Vikings do you think would be top 50 now that weren't back then?

I don’t know who they would bump off the list but Harrison Smith would have to land on the list. Listeners to the Purple Insider podcast have heard me make the argument that he could someday land in the Hall of Fame (and I’ll write more about it at some point here). He’s not just making a case as a great Viking but great all-time safety.

Lots of tough calls after that though. If Kirk Cousins ends up as the second best QB in Vikings history, does he make it? What about Everson Griffen? Adam Thielen will need a few more years but he could have a case. Anthony Barr is only a few Pro Bowls away from getting this type of recognition (I know, Pro Bowls don’t really matter but that’s how a lot of stuff gets judged still). Had Stefon Diggs not wanted out, he would have had a shot.

@robertwrogge Do you think NFL teams fail to identify potential stars, either by not drafting them or overlooking them? How accurate are they at evaluating talent? Are there guys who never became stars because they did not get the opportunity? How close to missing Thielen were the Vikings?

The NFL is outrageously good at identifying potential stars. It’s absolutely incredible how accurate they are. If you look at the history of the league and take a stat like Pro-Football Reference’s “Approximate Value” you’d find that first-round picks produce more value over their careers than second rounders and second more than third and third more than fourth etc.

Some of that might be the bias of playing guys you picked that high but there are so many more first-round success stories than fourth round. If it were random, the gap would be much closer.

Coaches are also great at evaluating talent. How many players have the Vikings cut who became stars elsewhere? I can’t think of any. They get months with these guys and have a pretty great feel for whether they can play. Stories of guys slipping through the cracks are notable because of how rare it is.

I would imagine there are players who feel they never got a shot. With 32 teams, XFL-style leagues popping up all the time and big practice squads, it’s pretty hard to argue that if you’re a very good player that everyone in the whole league was too blind to see it.

Thielen was either becoming a Viking or nothing. Nobody else was going to give him a tryout but the Vikings canvas all those schools for a reason — because you never know. I think the fact they identified him as a guy they should bring along tells you they are very good at spotting the right skills even with guys who aren’t highly touted.

(Of course, a lot of it comes down to our old friend randomness. Every team has their fair share of Laquon Treadwells so don’t take this like nobody in the NFL ever gets it wrong. They do all the time).

@smccullough5 2 q's 1. Dakota Dozier has been consistently talked about the starting LG so far at camp. Does this say more about Dozier or the competition? 2. In the first half of the season, what's the non-division game(s) that can either set the Vikes up for the 2nd half or spell trouble?

Dozier knows what he’s supposed to do and there’s value in that when it comes to a pandemic offseason. Even if he isn’t an ideal starter (but a good backup), you can’t throw someone like Ezra Cleveland to the wolves right away without a full offseason. He’ll have to hold down the fort to start. I haven’t seen enough from Aviante Collins to believe he’s going to beat Dozier but that’s still a possibility. Kubiak said he’d decide soon.

That Tennessee game is super interesting to me. They play road games at Indy and at Houston before and after home against Tennessee and I think the Titans are the best of all those teams. If you beat the Titans, it gives you a little leeway in those following weeks where you see DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. If you lose to Ryan Tannehill, it’s going to feel like a (wait for it) upTanneHill battle the rest of the way.

@fan57028 Is it time to panic about Hunter? I’m guessing it’s a minor hamstring issue, but Zimmer uses the term “small tweak” for everything ranging from a stubbed toe to a torn ACL.

You’re right about Zimmer and training camp injuries. I don’t think you have to panic until the week before the season with Hunter. If he’s out of practice that Wednesday, freak the heck out. Until then, wait this one out. It’s not like he has to learn the defense.

Side note: You guys are the best. Great questions this week!

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