Friday Mailbag: Draft trade winds blowing?

Vikings fans want to know how things are going to play out in the draft

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Two more weeks. Twooooo more weeks.

Let’s dive into your questions…

Dan…. Adding Dexter Lawrence, apart from its merits, would simply be awesome because it makes next year’s Vikings team even more of a quintessential Vikings team. They’d be setup for a chance at another one of their wild, once in ten years runs at the playoffs with a random quarterback who might just click, great receiving weapons, and a strong defense anchored by a great defensive line.

I say go for it! If they shy away from the risk, are their odds of a deep playoff run going to be any better in 2027 or 2028 than they could be this year with Kyler and Dexter? There’s tons of uncertainty 1-2 years into the future, but they’ll have their work cut out for them just to keep the pace with this year’s solid roster.

You are right about that. It would have all the markers of a classic Vikings team that loses in the NFC Championship. The dominating defensive line, rent-a-quarterback, filthy wide receivers, really good kicker etc.

The argument for trading for Dexter Lawrence is exactly the way you laid it out. I know folks are asking a lot of questions about Kyler Murray but he’s played in the NFL long enough that I feel like I have a very good sense for what he can be with the Vikings at his best. Imperfect but capable of producing a top-10 offense.

If they added Lawrence and he produced 45 QB pressures and 7.0 sacks and was a top-five run-defending DT, it’s plausible for the Vikings to have the best defense in the NFL if some other things go right (i.e. health, schedule).

There’s a case for saying screw it because this is the final year of the roster that was build up since 2023. It feels like the 2019 or 2022 Vikings. It’ll be a way different team one year from now.

Signing Lawrence to a $30 million deal would look pretty tough at first but the 2027 Vikings have a bunch of expensive players leaving, which would create space for him. He’s not that old. His health record is very good. It would be a foundational piece to build around.

Where the rubber meets the road with Lawrence is the price tag. If the Vikings only had to give up the 49th overall pick, it would be very tough to say no. It would be pretty much like the TJ Hockenson trade where they knew that the 2022 team was about to come apart so they took a swing at a star player with a second-rounder. If the Giants aren’t moving Lawrence for anything less than a first-round pick, I’m out.

Jeffrey S…Am I crazy for thinking 18 is too high for Thieneman or EMW? On the hand, I would be intrigued by Faulk (I don`t think he would be more than a rotational player year 1) or Sadiq at 18....

No sir, you are not crazy. It’s not that Thieneman or McNeil-Warren aren’t good prospects. They absolutely are. There are some folks who are incredibly high on Thieneman and think that he’s one of the best safety prospects to come out in the draft in the last 10 years. If the Vikings think that either guy is a franchise type player who can dominate from the safety position, then they should probably just take either guy if they are on the board.

My skepticism is this: If either guy hits 80% of what we think they can be, then it’s one of the easiest positions in the NFL to replace. I assume that’s one of the reasons that the league doesn’t take safeties very high. Starks and Emmanwori were great prospects and they went 27th and 35th last year.

It’s so rare that safeties are taken in the first that I had to go back to 2019 to find a guy taken close to where the Vikings are picking. (Kyle Hamilton was kinda close at 14th). That was Darnell Savage. He’s a great example of my concern He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash and was considered a highly instinctual player. He was also a little undersized. Savage was OK with the Packers, then signed a three-year, $21 million second contract. There were a lot of good players on the board when they made that pick, including Montez Sweat, Byron Murphy Jr., Kaleb McGary, Deebo Samuel…

Anyway, you get the point. The guy can’t just kinda be OK if you’re investing that much. It’s gotta be a home run. That’s not true for some other positions.

My takes are varying back and fourth on Faulk. He’s physically gifted and has a chance to be good under the right circumstances. I also kinda see a Jihad Ward in him. Tweener with traits but… where does he really fit?

I’d be good with Sadiq.

Timothy G… Are UFL players draft eligible? Is there a scenario where a UFL player with legit measurables makes a handful of splash plays and gets their name called?

I believe there was one instance of a UFL player or CFL player (I can’t remember) who was drafted recently but it’s a rare situation. The guy would have to drop out of college early and then go play in either one of those leagues and then do enough to get the NFL’s attention. The guy who did it was very poor and needed the money but now that’s not the case in college.

Most UFL players are undrafted free agents or guys who have played in the NFL who are looking for one last chance.

Brent K…Matthew, with a couple weeks to go before the draft, I’m going to go off topic for a moment. How many guitars do you own? Which is your favorite? What do you have your eye on for your next one?

Regarding the Vikings draft, so many analysts are pointing to safety for the Vikings, it feels like it might be purposeful misdirection from the team. Either that or a major leak from someone. Your thoughts?

I own nine guitars. My wife got me a Randy Rhodes Jackson for my birthday last year and a Yamaha Revstar a few years ago, so I play both of those a lot. My other most played guitar is a Nick Johnston Schecter super strat style. I’m not sure what’s next. I might want to invest in something amp wise. I have a Boss Katana and a mini Fender amp that comes with a great amp modeler but I’m always on the hunt for better tone.

My theory on why Dillon Thieneman is the pick for every draft analyst is A) He’s a really good talent in a draft that’s weak at the most valuable positions (edge rusher, quarterback, cornerback) B) People Google the roster, see Theo Jackson and Jay Ward and assume that the situation at safety is dire (not saying they’re necessarily wrong) C) the Vikings aren’t a hot team to talk about so mock drafters just toss a name in there that makes sense and move on.

The mockers may very well be right. They were right about the Vikings picking JJ McCarthy. Donovan Jackson was definitely on the radar last year. Jordan Addison wasn’t a big surprise in 2023. Maybe it will be chalk.

I just think there are a lot of options that make sense for the Vikings if we look one more year down the road. Defensive line, outside linebacker, cornerback, tackle, receiver, tight end etc. It doesn’t seem like the mock universe ever looks big picture on these things.

Brad L… Lots of talk about drafting for defense (which makes sense). Yet I feel like I’ve heard Flores isn’t keen on playing rookies. So, how do you see that all playing out?

The Vikings haven’t given Flores much to work with. It doesn’t seem that he’s had much patience with players who are projects but the only guy he’s had in the top-100 picks since he got here is Dallas Turner. It’s pretty hard to pin a rookie-hating label on him when they never give him top talents to develop.

In Miami, Christian Wilkins started 14 games as a rookie first-round pick. Safety Brandon Jones had a big role in 2020 as a rookie. Defensive tackle Raekwon Davis, a second-rounder, started 12 games in 2020. Third-round pick Jerome Baker played a lot as a rookie in 2019 and then was a full-timer by 2020.

If the examples we’re using of Flores not developing young players are Esezi Otomewo, Akayleb Evans and Nahshon Wright, I don’t think that case holds up in court.

There is something to the complexity of the defense when it comes to Flores getting young players in the mix and I would have liked to have seen them be more patient with UDFAs and late-round guys rather than just shuffling in and out project players but I’m confident that he’s going to have no trouble playing Dillon Thieneman or Peter Woods or Jermod McCoy if they take those guys high in the draft.

I think 90% of NFL fan bases probably say that their coaches hate the young players. I remember when Zimmer didn’t have Garrett Bradbury taking first-team reps in minicamp, I got emails about Zimmer hating rookies.

Evan… I liked your power rankings, but there is nothing worse than the Vikings being #8 - right in the middle. What can the Vikings do this season to move the needle (in any direction, whether we go to the bottom or top)?

Thanks. I will say that my issue with power rankings in general is that they don’t include the deviation between each number. There is not an equal distance between each pick. So the gap between the Rams and Seahawks is small but the gap between the Seahawks and the next best team is large, if that makes sense.

The gap between the Vikings, Packers, Lions and Bears is very small. The Vikings just have more variance with a new quarterback, so it’s fair to put them fourth in the NFC North in a power ranking, even if I actually think they have a good chance to win the division. I don’t think if Kyler works out that the Vikings are very far behind San Francisco either and I think I had them third.

To your question, a big trade could definitely move the needle. If they got Dexter Lawrence or De’Von Achane, then things change. I’m not sure there’s any draft scenario outside of getting Jeremiah Love that could do it or late spring signing. They’re going to have to prove that it works with Murray.

Jason… I am probably over reacting to a couple of mock drafts I saw. But in some of those, Spencer Fano had fallen below the Vikings 19th pick and they still had the Vikings taking Thieneman. It seems like Fano would be a home run given his ability to play all over the line including center. Is there a scenario where Fano is realistically there and the Vikings pass? Essentially talk me out of picking Fano if possible.

Under the current circumstances with questions about Darrisaw’s health and O’Neill’s contract, I don’t see how you can pass up on the offensive tackle that some people have as the No. 1 player at his position in the draft. The only way they’d do that is if they feel great about an extension happening for O’Neill and they are completely fine with Darrisaw. But even then, if O’Neill gets another contract, you’re talking like $60M between the two tackles. That’s a lot.

I’d far prefer Fano to Thieneman based on scarcity. Tackles are not available in free agency. You cannot find good ones anywhere but the first round. So you either do it when you have and aren’t desperate or be forced into a spot where you have to get one in the future in the draft no matter what. Plus the guy can also reportedly play guard. So if someone gets hurt or if everything’s wonderful but you move on from Fries after this year, bang, freaky O-line.

Evan… You’ve gotten me interested in trading up for Mansoor Delane. Thoughts on trading Greenard to the Chiefs or Cowboys? Do you think either team would be interested? No additional 3rd round pick. We could also trade back from 49 (if Jacob Rodriguez is gone) to get some more draft capital

I’m a little bit of the mind that the idea of trading Greenard isn’t great if you have Kyler Murray here because you’re trying to win. However, your scenario would definitely be intriguing. They have not had a No. 1 cornerback who can really match up versus the top WRs since Xavier Rhodes and I’m curious to find out what Flores’ defense would look like with that guy. Belichick’s secret was always having that dude, whether it was Ty Law or Aqib Talib or Stephon Gilmore. When Flores was in Miami he had Xavien Howard.

I don’t like trading down in the second very much. The return just isn’t worth it. Where the Vikings are already picking is on the edge of where most starters in the draft come from so I’d prefer to just stick and pick than adding a random extra fourth that doesn’t have much chance to succeed. That type of stuff would drive me crazy when Rick did it.

Matt D… I listen to a lot of Vikings podcasts and I feel like one thing that never gets talked about often enough or in enough detail is how often the team uses specific formations, personnel packages, defensive coverages, etc. compared to the rest of the league. I might just be a terrible Googler or too cheap to subscribe to the right services, but it’s also harder to find that stuff online than you’d think. Do you have a breakdown of that for the Vikings offense & defense? I think I heard the other day that the defense runs cover 3 at the lowest rate in the league.

Yeah, those can be tough things to find. TruMedia is where people get a lot of the stuff that ends up on Twitter but that’s something that only a business can afford. Cody Alexander’s Match Quarters newsletter has a lot of defensive data like coverage percentages and stuff like that. SumerSports has personnel package data. Ray Carpenter’s website has that too. It ends up being a mix mash.

Some stuff from Cody that’s interesting. The Vikings were No. 1 in split-safety coverages (middle of the field open) and were dead last in Cover-1. They were not last in Cover-3 but didn’t have a high percentage. They played the most zone defense in the NFL and were No. 3 in “base” defense. I assume that counts Metellus as a linebacker. Here’s where those stats came from:

2025 NFL Weekly Data Download: End of Season

From RayCarp.com, they were in 11 personnel 65% of the time (draft WR3!) and 12 personnel 20% of the time.

Florian K… Two questions. 1. There’s lots of talk about Murray’s skills but, besides his height, what are his weaknesses? 2. What do you know about the college scouting department? Is there much turnover year to year? Are scouts directly employed by teams or are they some kind of contract workers?

His biggest weaknesses are that when he tries to really drive the ball, it sails on him. He tends to make huge mistakes when he’s trying to do something magical. He passes up on looks that are there with his first read and doesn’t hang in the pocket long enough to let routes progress. Also health is a pretty serious concern.

Jonathan Gannon and Drew Petzing did a really great job in 2024 of balancing Kyler’s playmaking with running a real offense that had more strict rules. He had a really good overall season but there’s a stretch where they play Seattle, Minnesota, Seattle and the defenses kinda ate him up. Good defenses are often able to corral him because good D usually has discipline and good coverage.

I don’t know a lot about the scouting department but they are definitely full-time Viking employees. There hasn’t been a ton of turnover in the Vikings front office in recent years but I don’t pay much attention to it when it happens, to be honest with you. I have zero way of knowing who inside that department is good/bad at their jobs and what type of impact that might have on decision making. You can be a great scout and nail 80% of players but if they draft the 20% guy, you look bad. It’s a tough profession.

IceColdNorth… Starting TE Hockenson is a free agent after this season. As we seek to add weapons at the position, would you favor a Day 1 TE selection (Kenyon Sadiq), a Day 2 (Eli Stowers), or a Day 3 (possibly Oscar Delp) when weighing positional value and the fact that many TEs don’t produce much in Year 1? The fact that both Sadiq and Stowers played lots of college reps from the slot position is intriguing given the departure of Jalen Nailor.