Friday Mailbag: Draft day is nearing

So many options for the Vikings and fans want to know which approach they will take

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everybody! We’re getting closer and closer to the draft, which means plenty of time to talk through scenarios. Let’s get into it….

Eldon… Which prospect being locked in the top 10 outside of Sanders do you think could fall? Are there any guys who if they fall you would feel comfortable trading up to grab?

I remember last year that there were a lot of mockers putting guys like Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold in the top 15 and both of them ended up dropping into the late part of the first round. I looked back to check my memory on Mock Draft Database and they were 14th and 16th, respectively, and Cooper DeJean was 22nd. That makes me wonder if Will Johnson or Jahdae Barron will make it into the mid-20s. Johnson is 12 and Barron is 16th on the consensus board right now.

I’ve seen some debating over whether cornerback could be a position that the Vikings target. The way I look at it is: There’s plenty of reason to believe in Blackmon and Rodgers but neither one of those guys would make me tell the Vikings to pass on an excellent prospect at a premium position. I’m with Mike Zimmer: You can never have too many corners.

IceColdNorth… The data set you provided on the low hit rate for 1st round guards was eye-opening. (I felt like the "Change My Mind" meme guy about selecting a 1st round guard ... but you may have actually changed my mind. Well done.) What positions have a better 1st round hit rate using the sort of data set you compiled for your Thursday article?

For those that didn’t see the article, it was a low *instant* hit rate on guards. There were very few that came into the NFL and were above average right away. Guard tends to be a position that needs more development. So if they are looking for an instant answer at guard, drafting one in the first might not be that position.

That doesn’t mean you should be against it. Someone like Booker might be well suited for a quick transition and even if the young player has more mistakes that drop his PFF grade that doesn’t mean he won’t be more effective. Plus they can battle with Blake Brandel in his first camp.

As far as first-round hit rates, I’ve referenced Timo Riske of PFF’s work on this a few times. He found that offensive line and edge rusher have the least production right away (ahem, patience with Dallas Turner, please) and running back, receiver safety tend to adjust the fastest. Basically if the Vikings need someone to step in right away, then Malaki Starks is probably the best suited for that if he’s available.

Roger N…From a player perspective is it better to be a late day 3 draftee or an undrafted free agent?

Always better to be drafted. The Vikings have landed a couple UDFAs over the years and have put a huge priority on it under Kwesi Adofo-Mensah but the odds of a 7th rounder succeeding are much higher than a UDFA. The Vikings bring in 15 UDFAs every year and maybe two of them end up making the team at best and usually they don’t play. I can’t say enough how crazy the Ivan Pace Jr. hit was. Normally if those guys make it, they spend 2-3 years on the practice squad before getting to that point. Nobody who’s picked past the fifth round has a great shot but we’ve seen a lot more players become contributors from rounds 5-7 than UDFA.

Jason…How big do you think this year’s UDFA class will be and what is the typical size for the Vikings?

Last year they signed 17 guys. I would expect the number to be around there again. The expansion of the practice squad has allowed teams to bring in more guys and see if anything sticks. The big difference from Spielman to KAM is the financial investment. I recall us talking up a UDFA who signed for something like $50k one year. Now they spend a lot more. I believe Gabriel Murphy was in the ballpark of $250k. Plus I heard from an agent last year that he wanted his UDFA to sign with the Vikings because the coaching staff doesn’t care where guys are drafted when it comes to opportunity. We’ve certainly seen that in action.

Florian K….Can you think of a player(s) who has been mocked to the Vikings which has the better path or chance to a first year starter? For that matter is there a position that needs a first year starter? One last, what if KAM stays put with his picks, maybe one trade, but the go absolutely ape-s*it in UDFA? The scouting and personnel dept have a way of finding a gem for development. I loves me some UDFAs.

I’m pretty sure every year they are going to go ape-bleep on the UDFA market. It seems to be part of the plan.

Safety and guard are the spots that have a clear path to playing right away. Someone like Tyler Booker is going to be physically ready for the job. At safety, I wrote a huge piece on Theo Jackson last year and how much the team loves him and that was reflected very much by his contract. At the same time, talent is talent. Guys like Malaki Starks or Nick Emmanwori are freak shows who could win the job next to Harry and become instant game-changers. Then they could be in line to take Harry’s spot when he retires in 2045.

Bradley P…I think the biggest lesson the Vikings can learn from the eagles is to use their premium pick selections on premium position players (OT, WR, DT, CB and QB). My hopes are they use the first pick on a corner or defensive tackle. What say you?

What are realistic expectations we can have for JJ this year? How will we be able to tell if he’s good, great or cause for worry?

That’s fair. The Eagles’ draft strategy hasn’t been too complicated. They pick high at three or four spots and they pick guys from top colleges (usually Georgia). No disagreement with you on the logic of going corner or DT. Both spots have good prospects and those positions usually are hard to replace on the free agent market (DT much harder than CB).

It’s really hard to draw an exact line in the sand with expectations. The team has to win games, for starters. They didn’t do all this stuff in the offseason to have a development year for the quarterback. We also understand that there will be a learning curve and some ups and downs. I think it’s more of a feel thing. If we are walking out of the stadium at some point saying, “the kid’s got it,” then it’s probably going to be a successful year. It’s really, really hard to tell how good/great a QB will be. People fought about Kirk until he was 35 and they’re still arguing over Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. If figuring out QBs was easy, football wouldn’t be as compelling.

Joe J… What stadium(s) have the best and worst accommodations for media members taking into consideration everything from food to comfort of your seats, view, space for getting your work done, etc.

The best outside US Bank Stadium are San Francisco (Santa Clara) and Philadelphia in terms of sheer accommodations. Great views, food is good, easy stadium to navigate. The bottom two would be Chicago and Jacksonville. It’s hard to find a place to do a postgame podcast in both places. The food is meh. Getting in and out of the stadium in Jacksonville is brutal in comparison to where the Uber drops you off. Ben Goessling and I spent the entire flights home from Jax freezing last year because we got soaked in the rain trying to find our driver. There’s a wide range between the best and worst.

Rob K….I consume a ton of different draft evaluators to get a better picture of the prospects and the teams--and, ya know, because it's fun. I think Brugler has the best write-ups and Renner, Sikkema, and Kelley are great, but if I had to go with just one (two) it'd be Monson & Palazzolo. I get so much out of their exchanges. Who are your favorites?

It's fun to look at players in that 97 and beyond range and I think a lot of start having a few favorites. For me it's about 10 different DTs, including West, Caldwell, and Pegues and DBs like Nohl Williams and Zah Frazier. Do you have a list of "Coller's Guys" developing?

I spend more time listening to Sam and Steve than any other football podcast, so I agree with you there. They are really good at having interesting discussions about prospects, not just giving information. Renner and Trevor are repeat guests on my show, love those guys. Obviously Chris Trapasso, the official draft analyst of Purple Insider, is a favorite because he tends to have different spins on prospects than a lot of the consensus opinion and he puts so much work into it. We all have to respect Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. He’s my first go-to when the Vikings draft a guy. Eric Edholm is also someone I’ve followed and greatly respected for a long time. Apologies to any of my draft friends that I forgot!

As far as deep cut players, I’m working on that list. The wide receiver from Iowa State Jaylin Noel has my interest. A DT named Aeneas Peebles from Virginia Tech. Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter. The guy from Bama Quan Robinson has crazy small sample numbers. It is a long list this year.

Dan…The trade down scenarios seem to make more sense from the Vikings' point of view than from the other team who would have to give up picks. I think Kwesi will need to give up some value on the trade chart if he wants more picks. Agree or disagree?

It does seem like a difficult year to trade down but it only takes one team that has a guy graded much higher than everyone else to get someone to agree. I don’t think they’ll do a trade down if they were going to give up a lot of value on the trade chart. Though the Jimmy Johnson version that was used for a long time and the analytical internet trade charts might not be the same as what Kwesi is using to value picks. I’ve gotten the sense from KAM over the last two drafts that they are looking for high-impact players rather than just the most players, especially with the rookie QB contract.

Rob K…Eons ago I knew Mike Zimmer would want Linval Joseph as a free agent--it just seemed essential for his defense. I was high on Grant early and later West and Caldwell as NTs with pass rush potential, but admit that beyond the "movable chess piece" and intelligence Flores desires for so many of his players and positions (why so many see Starks as a good fit I think) I don't know if there's an essential need/type for his D-line because he seems to adapt and morph his defense so much. Beyond the "anyone could use a player like Harmon or Grant" is there something (or someone) specific you think he feels he needs in the D-line?

As far as the NT position, it’s an interesting dynamic because I wasn’t interested in Grant at first and then I watched some of him and looked closer at the numbers and I see some pass rush potential. That type of player can be super valuable to a defense like Vita Vea or in the absolute best-case scenario Dexter Lawrence, who wasn’t considered a crazy pass rusher when he came out but developed into one. Imagining Grant with the rest of these D-linemen is pretty scary.

But that wasn’t your point since Grant can probably play for anyone. I don’t think there is any particular type of player that Flores needs but I could see Walter Nolen playing multiple spots on the D-line from 3-tech to the traditional 3-4 defensive end spot. That’s one thing that Allen and Hargrave have in common. You can see both of them playing over the tackle rather than just having to be inside all the time. It seems that he likes to use that look with five guys on the D-line.

Kaden… How do Malaki Starks and Emmanwori compare to Kyle Hamilton as a prospect coming out of the draft?