Friday mailbag: Does the Flores hire mean they are running it back?

Vikings fans want to know if the new DC will keep veteran players and much more

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By Matthew Coller

Well, friends, we have one more football game this year and then it’s onto the madhouse that is the NFL offseason. Everyone enjoy the Super Bowl and stay safe out there. Let’s dive into your questions…

Jeff in Tokyo … Given the Flores hiring (yeah) for which veterans does this speed the cut / trade decision and who does it help (in terms of staying on the team)?

I don’t think Patrick Peterson is a very good fit for a defense that demands tons of man coverage so I’d be surprised if he returned. For the others, Flores is probably a better fit with his system than Donatell. Even if he’s not as quick as he used to be, Eric Kendricks has always been a good man coverage linebacker and surprisingly effective blitzer by the numbers. Harrison Smith could benefit the most because Flores is so much more aggressive with his safeties in the box. Things wouldn’t be much different for Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. It’s one reason to think that a complete overhaul isn’t all that likely. They might believe Donatell misused guys so badly that running it back with a different scheme will be better.

Rob …Who wins, the Eagles or Chiefs? I think it’s going to be some late Mahomes magic to win for the Chiefs

I’m going with the Chiefs because of Mahomes and I’m not sure Kansas City’s getting quite enough credit for how good their team really is. They had to beat a hot Jags team and a great Cincinnati team to get here and didn’t entirely do it through Mahomes magic, they also played extremely well on defense in those games. Plus I wonder how much Hurts’ shoulder injury might still be hampering him. I saw Bill Barnwell of ESPN had a note that he’d become more inaccurate since getting hurt. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly won on the back of a very good roster.

Thomas… What do you think the absolute highest stakes Super Bowl (in terms of drama) would be? My gut tells me 0-4 Minnesota vs. 0-4 Buffalo, but obviously I'm biased as a Vikings fan. Some interstate or close proximity rivalry? A rematch of a classic from back in the day? If Brady was still playing a Bucs/Pats would have been pretty wild

Yeah, Vikings-Bills or Vikings-Chargers would be the battle of the most cursed teams, which would make it fascinating on its own. Outside of that, Rodgers and the New York Jets or Las Vegas Raiders facing the Packers comes to mind. Dallas versus Pittsburgh with all of the history involved. Pre DeShaun Watson I would have said that Detroit versus Cleveland would be something for the ages.

flokubes.. Matthew I have a question I hope you can either answer or research. Since KAM and KOC arrived and brought their staffs in has there been any staff changes in the scouting or pro personnel departments? Talent acquisition is everything and with four draft picks, so far, KAM really kinda needs to hit on all of them.  Tall order to be sure.  So, who does KAM and KOC trust to give them the information they need to do their analytical alchemy on?  Thank you. 

They added some people last year when they arrived. One that was notable was former 49ers manager of football research and development Demitrius Washington as their vice president of football operations. I get questions pretty often about the scouts and I really don’t know what to say about it. The scouts look at hundreds of players and the team picks 10 in the draft. That’s why it can be so random from year to year. The whole staff looks at the draft, too. The position coaches analyze the players, Kwesi watches tape on these guys. So it’s a complete org effort if they succeed or fail, I don’t think we can say with any degree of certainty how much the scouts are making an impact. If they didn’t think they could do their jobs last year, they would have made bigger changes.

@headcoach21 Who’s your pick for the biggest meltdown in NFL playoff history??

Oilers vs. Buffalo in the Frank Reich comeback game is a pretty easy pick. The Chiefs vs. the Colts in 2013 when KC lost 45-44. The Chargers put their hat in the ring against the Jaguars this year, that’s for sure. If you want to go a little deeper than just blowing leads, you could also look at upsets. The 2005 Colts were No. 2 in offense and No. 2 in defense and lost to a pretty pedestrian Steelers team at home in the divisional round. The undefeated Patriots losing to the Giants. The 15-1 Packers also losing to the Giants. The playoffs are crazy, man.

@kyleshaner Will Kwesi ever get an opportunity to fully build the Vikings the way he wants or has ownership’s desires and the team’s 2022 success forced him to alter his approach?

It’s hard to say. The “competitive rebuild” thing never sounded like “it’s my team now, baby!” It might depend on what happens in 2023. If they come apart and win six or seven games, then I think we’ll see a big overhaul, starting with a quarterback change. But coming off the season they just had, it’s probably going to be a difficult sell to tear it all down, even if that’s what he thinks is right (which we don’t know).

@SamRoot43 How does the Flores hiring effect your thinking of which FA/cut/trade candidates from the '22 defense will be back? I understand he likes a lot of cover1/0 with blitzes and pressure packages. Gotta think Harrison Smith fits that philosophy better than so much 1/4s and cover6

It definitely points more toward a return for Harry. His contract isn’t easy to move anyway. I’m not sure about Kendricks. The draft is an interesting discussion here too. You could make the case that cornerback shoots to the top of the list of needs and I’d agree but they do have three guys who are young and have skill sets that point toward playing more man coverage. Maybe they’d look more toward interior pass rush. I’ve gotta think he wants that after coaching Christian Wilkins and Cam Heyward the last two years.

@sevenstoreysta1 Could any of the corners work well from the slot. Duke Shelley(if resigned), Akalyeb Evans or Cam Dantzler, then we could draft a shut down outside corner and don’t need to worry about losing Chandon Sullivan.

Shelley maybe. He fits the bill as an undersized guy who’s very aggressive. Definitely not the others. Their best skills are at mirroring receivers. That’s not really what a nickel corner does very often. It’s a totally different position. More likely they’ll need to go to the free agent market to get a nickel corner.

@dantaylor26 If Prince was the best halftime show you’ve seen, who was the worst?

It’s this. I’m not sure anything else even comes close.

@hoemauer What would you do regarding Duke Shelley if you were Kwesi?

I’d sign him to a two-year deal worth like $6 million. He should be considered solid depth. You always want guys who can play at a moment’s notice and are willing to be aggressive.

@dmoney0919 My understanding from OTC is we can save just over 7.1m with a restructure of Thielen’s contract. I’m sure if you’re Thielen’s agent, you say time to move on to a closer SB contender. But, if you’re a consultant to the Vikings, what’s your advice to them here?

I don’t see Thielen on an $11 million cap hit as the worst thing in the world but only if they’re going to make a legitimate effort to find another receiver. Last year’s Albert Wilson signing and a sixth-round pick is not a legitimate effort and we could see that the time was coming where Thielen wasn’t the 1B that he used to be. Sticking around would also have to be contingent on Adam understanding his role. If the social media stuff is right and he wants to get more target share, it’s time to move on.

@JjVarichak what do you think if the Vikings drafted John Michael-Schmidtz in the first round?

He’s a tremendous prospect. Was super impressed watching the Senior Bowl. And he’s repped by my friend Jeremiah Sirles, so it would be cool for Jeremiah if he succeeded. All that said, I don’t think the Vikings are in the right spot for him now. When teams draft, they should look two years down the road at needs. The Vikings have needs at all the premium positions over the next two years, from edge rushers to interior rush to wide receiver to corner…I don’t know how they could pass up on those key positions to take a center when the NFL pays centers lower than any other non-specialist position. The surplus value just isn’t there.

@dantaylor26 Who picks first overall in the 2024 Draft?

I’ll go with Arizona. I see no path whatsoever for them getting better next year. Without Kyler they are a horror show. They should plan to draft No. 1 overall, take Caleb Williams and trade Kyler for a first.

@NicholasMMiller How many draft picks do you think Kwesi makes this year? Currently slated for 5, my guess is 8.

Eight is a good guess. I’m sure they will do some trading back but there’s only so far they can go back without hurting their odds at getting good players.

@BIG_dannn CB will be a hot topic this summer..so I ask what’s the priority list this off-season DEF. wise? Is it Interior pass Rush (hoping to find your C. Wilkins in the draft or FA) or is it a 1st round CB in already young DB group? Or is it other?

It’s everything. There isn’t a position that’s completely set, not even pass rusher when you consider the Hunter contract situation and Za’Darius age/injury history/contract. I really like the interior rusher idea. They are so hard to find and so freaking effective when they are good (see: Eagles, Chiefs). It would start with a decision long term on Hunter and then go from there. But really, they just need more good players. Right now it’s not a pretty sight.

@dkall2 What do you think Kirk's value would be on the open market?

If they threw his name out there today, someone is likely to give them a second-round pick. I’m not sure if they get a first because there are other QBs out there who are similar like Derek Carr, Jimmy G and maybe Rodgers. He’s definitely more valuable than Wentz or Ryan were last year but he’s also expensive and in need of a long-term deal, which would hurt his value.

@edvoll Not enough is made about the talent kirk has been surrounded with, 3 pro bowl receivers, 2 pro bowl tight ends, 2 pro bowl tackles, dalvin cook and yet the discourse is that he isn’t adequately supported, why is this? Why do fans make excuses for him?

If you Twitter search almost any quarterback, you’ll find fans defending them. Bears fans think Justin Fields is the next great QB — unless they trade Fields, then he’s trash. That’s just how it goes. When we’re talking about guard problems as the biggest issue over five years, I’d say he’s had more than adequate (if not top notch) supporting casts and he’s done about what you’d expect from a good quarterback with it. Someone said back in 2018 when the Vikings got him that Kirk is an exact reflection of your team strength and I’d agree with that. Usually for the price tag, you want a little more than that.

@daddy4547 Being a fan of this team for a very long time why do they put themselves always in a bad position with cap and always having a bad line on either side of the ball. Even the great Mahomes needed a better line to get back to were there at what is wrong with this team?#skolnation

Well, I would say that Mahomes helps his line quite a bit with his quick game and scrambling and he’s reached the AFC Championship every year with tons of different line combinations. But, to your point, they haven’t always put themselves in a bad position with the cap as it pertains to spending on the rest of the roster. In 2015 they had the third most expensive offensive line, 10th most expensive group of receivers and most expensive running back (per OTC) but spent the sixth least on quarterback. If you keep an expensive QB, you can’t spend elsewhere unless you hit on a ton of draft picks. But also they have a lot nostalgia for guys who have been around a while and they’ve paid out the nose for it. One of Belichick’s old tricks was knowing when he could replace someone. They seem to think these guys are irreplaceable until they’ve completely fallen off.

@nurseintime Why have the Vikings not signed most of their practice squad players to futures contracts? For example, Bryant Koback

They signed a handful of guys to futures contracts in mid-January but I wouldn’t spend too much time concerned about who’s on the practice squad unless you’re related to one of the players.

@LolosAlex What’s the highest you’d draft a kicker who is guaranteed to make every single field goal within 70 yards. Same question for a punter guaranteed to down every punt at the 1

Every field goal? Every punt? First round for both of them. The value would be out of this world to get points every time you got to the 40-yard line. And the numbers show pretty clearly that it’s still super hard to score if you have to drive 95 yards. If it’s anything less than a kicker/punter Superman, though, don’t bother drafting them.

@Sno317 Do you think Allen will win a Super Bowl?

Having grown up in Buffalo and watched a better QB than him with better players around him fail four times, it’s a tough sell but he’s great so usually guys that good get a bunch of chances and come away with at least one.

@smccullough5 Saw a pic where Bradburry was a caddie for Theilen. If you could have one member of the Vikings (present or past) be your caddie, who is it? Why?

I could talk ball with Terence Newman for four hours, so probably him. I wouldn’t want to make Justice Alan Page carry my golf clubs but I’d caddie for him.

@Zenkid__ Fan since the 1500 ESPN days, great stuff. I recall the owners always holding the Steelers ownership group as the model group. I would think that the Wilfs have to be tired of this Kirk Cousins contract nonsense. Do you think they actually listen to fans?

Thank you! I have been amazed at the number of fans who want the direction to change, even if it means things are a little on the ugly side for 2023. If you were them, how would you go about listening to fans? There are like three million Vikings fans whose opinions are all over the map. That’s why you hire a GM like Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. I can’t say for sure how Kwesi feels about the roster but if he tells them they need to take a longer term approach, particularly to the QB position, they should listen.

@1Sween Since we draft usually 15-25 about every year. Minus a qb what position is the best value to draft in the slot. What do you typical get bang for your buck?

It’s always going to be receiver for me. I know they need other stuff on defense really badly but you can find legit superstar receivers in the middle of the first through the second round. Jefferson, Deebo, AJ Brown…these guys were not the top at their positions and they drive entire teams’ success more than any defensive player outside of maybe Micah Parsons.

@dreski83 Is Minnesota destined for another Diggs-like dust up with Justin Jefferson? Why or why not...

I don’t think so…in the short term. My guess is that he signs an extension before training camp that makes him the most expensive WR in NFL history and then it depends on how that goes. If they struggle to build around him, he will leave like OBJ. If they are in a good spot, I could see him being a Viking for life.

@smccullough5 If Kirk Cousins went in a darkness retreat, how many days would he last? What questions is he looking to answer?

Maybe I should just leave this question for the comment section.

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