Friday mailbag: Dobbs decision and...Jake Browning?

Vikings fans have questions about the QB choice and how former Viking Jake Browning came out of nowhere to look good for the Bengals

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone. Wow was that a long bye week. Now it’s back to football so let’s see what Vikings fans have on their minds heading into the Vegas game…

Scott… Is Jake Browning for real and the Vikings screwed up the evaluation or is this another classic example of NFL talking heads reacting to a shinny object?

The Vikings didn’t screw up the evaluation of Jake Browning because at the time they let him go he wasn’t prepared to take on a starting role if he was called upon. Gary and Klint Kubiak both liked Jake a lot. They knew that he could understand the offense and worked really hard. I remember Klint saying that he felt like Jake was always pushing the coaches to work with him. Guessing that they felt like his arm talent just wasn’t ever going to be good enough to make the throws necessary for the offense. I’m not totally shocked that he kept grinding and when the opportunity arose that he was able to take advantage of it. But I’d say that’s more likely a product of him continuing to grow and get a ton of experience as a backup rather than the Vikings missing a secret superstar. And there is the small sample size part of this as well. He wasn’t very good in the other two games, his shining moment happened to come on Monday Night Football.

Walleyepike… are we losing to Jake Browning in 2 weeks? I don’t think I’ll survive that.

Maybe. Let’s keep in mind that the Bengals entered the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They have a great team. It’s no mistake that Jake Browning’s big breakout game came via 11 catches for 149 yards from Ja’Marr Chase. The next best non-RB had 37 yards receiving. If the Vikings are making the playoffs, they absolutely have to beat the Bengals with a backup but Chase alone makes that a more difficult proposition if Browning can get him the ball at all. Gotta also give credit to Zac Taylor for adjusting the gameplan to work for him. Still, Flores’ defense has mostly done a great job on short throws since that Chargers game.

To your bigger point, if they can’t beat Aidan O’Connell and Jake Browning, they don’t belong in the playoffs and the chances they are going to take down Detroit and Green Bay would look pretty bleak.

OldDrummer55… Matthew, do you believe the referee organization maintains player files highlighting on field behavior, foul tendencies, etc? Something each unit could review before games?

I don’t know if such a thing exists. I do know that the coaches meet with the refs before the game and I’m sure that if a coach believes that there is a certain player who is committing holding or pass interference or some type of dirty play that it will come up but I have never heard of any type of organized data that they are given about certain players.

Scott… What's your ideal game offensive plan for LV. Mine will include lots of quick throws, especially early to get Dobbs in a rhythm, to ALL of his receivers and backs - not just JJ. Then, once LV starts to defend that, take a shot downfield.

First, the Raiders defense is not good against the run. They are bottom 10 in yards allowed per game and yards per attempt allowed. I’d start there. Against Chicago they were moving the ball on the ground but ended up with 17 total run plays despite the fact that they were never down by more than six points. After that, more pre-snap motion and quick stuff and then try to work off the run game with a few play-action shots downfield. Basically, give Dobbs a gameplan that Gary Kubiak would be proud of.

Jason… What chess openings are best and why?

Personally I experiment with a lot of different openings. I like the Larsen attack and the Jobava London when I’m playing with white because they are a little off beat from the typical e4 stuff and I’ve been fiddling with the Slav and the Owen’s defense with black depending on what my opponent does. I want to master some gambits but it takes a lot of prep to learn all the lines and attacks. I try to play more positional games and wait for a misstep by my opponent.

Ben… What is going on with the officiating??? There’s gonna be a controversy on championship weekend that cost a team and the owner of the losing team is not gonna be happy

I’m not convinced that the reffing is actually worse than it has ever been, just that we have so much access to replays and former refs and social media that we are more aware of every mistake in every game. We also have enough common sense to know that the NFL should have put steps in place years ago to make everything reviewable in a quick process that wouldn’t bring games to a halt. It blows my mind that 40 million people at home can see that Patrick Mahomes wasn’t out of bounds when he was flagged but the guy on the field making the call doesn’t get the benefit of seeing it again. It’s an impossible job that requires someone watching plays back. It’s like they refuse to admit the game is too difficult to officiate and would prefer missed calls to having refs in a booth that could correct miscues on the field.

Pickle Enjoyer… Can there be anything more Vikings than refusing to move on from an older QB and then watch the Packers move on from a HOF and see his replacement play good football?

I need the “hello darkness my old friend” meme for my response here. I remember reading one time that families can pass down certain traits through their DNA that you would never expect. It’s sort of like that with Minnesota and Green Bay. The Vikings have always been just good enough that they can’t fully blow it up and go all-in on their quarterback and also just good enough that they believe they are only a few pieces away from winning with whatever quarterback. Twice the Packers have identified when their QB might be leaving and picked somebody with some talent to develop over a few years before putting them in. I’m not sure Jordan Love is going to have Aaron Rodgers-like results but it can’t be ignored that it’s part of their franchise DNA to do something like that.

But the Vikings’ history does have a counter example, which is Daunte Culpepper. They drafted him with people thought they should just roll with the older QB in Cunningham and then try to get an additional pass rusher. The whole competitive rebuild thing does make it harder to pull off drafting a QB and building a Super Bowl contender around them but it’s not impossible. What they have to be comfortable with is the 50-50 chance that it doesn’t work. But what are the odds they get different results going back to the old plan?

Thomas… Do you think KOC sought input from team leaders in making the QB decision to ride with Dobbs?

That wasn’t mentioned but I don’t think that would be needed in this case. O’Connell should make the call himself. He’s the one doing the big study during the bye week, he’s the one communicating in the headset and he’s a former QB. Sometimes it’s better to have less “collaboration.” When Zimmer asked the team leaders for their opinion in 2017 that was a very unique situation because Teddy was coming back and Case was riding high. There were probably some people inside the room that did want to see Teddy come back mid-season because they knew that Case was on a burner that wouldn’t last. That’s not what we are looking at here. It’s backup QB vs. backup QB vs. rookie QB. Pick one and roll with him.

Joel… Is the tanking window now closed for this regime? They had two years to pull a Bears and chose to stay medium. So now if they go 3-14 someday, they are probably cooked.

Yes, that opportunity is gone. Had they traded Kirk in either of the first two offseasons they may have been able to pick in the top 10 and possibly move up to take a QB in the 2023 or 2024 draft but sticking with Cousins locked them into being competitive. You could say they have too much talent to tank otherwise and that’s absolutely right but it doesn’t always have to mean going 2-15, it can just be a more dedicated rebuild mindset where you trade Kirk and Danielle Hunter. Think about the Panthers. They were sitting at the No. 9 pick and traded up to No. 1. Your other point is absolutely correct. Let’s say they go 9-8 this year and make the playoffs. They can’t go below that bar again because this was supposed to be the rebuild-ish year. Now if they have a win-now season and win eight games or less, it probably means hot seat or worse. Either the competitive rebuild works and they find their guy at QB and compete with the big boys or it’s going to be playing the middling game for a long time.

Jeff…. With a bye week to regroup offensively, do you see the game plan changing at all? It has seemed as though KOC is expecting Dobbs to make the second and third level throws Kirk did, but that doesn’t seem to be aligned with what Dobbs is best capable of doing. Do we see more quick passes and more rollouts/bootlegs by Dobbs this week?

Yes, I definitely do. Something I noticed in the numbers even before the Bears game was that Dobbs’ intermediate passing was not good in Arizona or Minnesota. He’s 13-for-27 when throwing it between 10-20 yards with three picks and with the Cards he was 32-for-60 with six turnover-worthy plays. With both teams he had terrible intermediate passing grades. Kirk, on the other hand, is an intermediate passing legend (91 PFF grade, 125.2 QB rating this year). With Dobbs it should be quick game or looking at throwing way down the field where there’s more margin for error.

It’s really hard to adjust an offense on the fly to a completely different style of quarterback. If they are able to pull it off and create something that works for Dobbs but still gets the ball to Justin Jefferson enough to be dangerous it will be very impressive.

Thomas… While the success of the Vikings defense is obviously impressive, I wonder why Flores seems to have lost several defensive coaches--Greg Manuski last summer plus two others this fall. Is there a pattern here or are these completely separate cases? Regardless, you can’t argue with his overall results.

My understanding is the Mike Smith situation is a personal issue and doesn’t have anything to do with anything Flores related. Chris Rumph taking a leave and then joining Clemson is more suspicious. Sometimes that happens though. Rumph was on the coaching staff under Donatell and wasn’t Flores’ guy so maybe something didn’t work out. Unless there’s something really controversial that comes out later, I’d look at it as relatively common that things don’t fit sometimes.

@Brett2point0 Why do the Dolphins have 6 of Top 7 @NextGenStats fastest plays? 3 different guys with multiple plays. Is it their actual speed plus motion/blocking in McDaniel's offense? This must be more than just randomness.

There’s probably a few explanations, starting with the Dolphins looking for really fast dudes. Tyreek Hill is basically Barry Sanders playing wide receiver. Devon Achane ran a 4.32 40-yard dash. These dudes can fly. But McDaniels’ big thing is putting them in motion and getting them to open spaces underneath, which means opportunities to get up to full speed. If you are wondering if the Vikings should be ripping off some stuff they do with Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu and Jalen Nailor, the answer is absolutely yes.

@AdamRaycraft How would you power-rank the current 6-6 & 5-7 NFC teams and which 2 do you ultimately predict to make the playoffs as wild cards?

By power, I’d go with the Packers, Rams, Vikings, Seahawks, Bucs, Falcons, Saints. Yet I’d still guess that the two teams to make the wild cards are the Packers and Vikings. Nobody has any idea how things are going to play out with Dobbs but the Vikings have played pretty badly in their last two games and lost by a total of three points. By PFF’s Timo Riske, if the Vikings win three of five games they have about a 90% chance to get into the postseason. I think they can do it. Green Bay has a wildly easy schedule down the stretch, which should help them get in. The Rams have it a little tougher. As for the NFC South, none of them actually belong in the playoffs.

@GBeckTV There are eight teams at 6-6 in the NFL. How would you rank them? I’m thinking in tiers of: -nobody wants to play them in the playoffs -Troy Aikman will say “you don’t want to play them in the playoffs” but you actually do -and you desperately want to play them in the playoffs

If I’m a powerhouse the Rams are the last team I want to see in the playoffs. I know Matthew Stafford’s stats aren’t super impressive this year but that man can get blazing hot and be a nightmare. The Packers deserve a nod here too because Matt LaFleur has figured out how to work with Jordan Love, I’m just not sure I see them as truly dangerous on offense yet. As far as what team you want to play, the Vikings have to be that team. Every other 6-6 team has their starting QB. I haven’t been impressed with Seattle lately and the Vikings’ defense is better but if you are choosing between all teams to play for one game, the one that lost to the Bears because their QB got picked off four times is getting the nomination, even if I think they can still make the playoffs. If Kirk was still playing, they’d be on the other end of that discussion.

@headcoach21 What past Vikings Head Coach would you compare Kevin O’Connell too??

There aren’t too many to choose from but Denny has to be the answer. Players seem to get behind him and he’s an offense-first coach. Maybe he’s not perfect but it’s going to be hard to have a really bad season with him in charge, even if there isn’t the most ideal quarterback situation.

@MarkLar18454726 Is there any hope by the team that Davenport could return this year?

Yes. He’s been in the locker room without a walking boot and Kevin O’Connell left the door open for that possibility. If he can even play a situational role with 20-30 snaps, that would be a big upgrade on Pat Jones and DJ Wonnum has proven he is a capable player during this time he’s been out.

@DonLokken How long a leash does Dobbs have?

I’d guess that is all about turnovers. If they have to play a field position game and grind out some field goal drives that will be OK but if Dobbs starts trying to do too much and fumbles or isn’t throwing the ball on time and it’s getting picked off then O’Connell is going to come out with the big giant hook.

Kyle… Will Las Vegas and Los Angeles ever have true home field advantages? Or, because of the nature of those cities, are the teams always going to have to deal with large presences from visiting fans?

It’s hard for them (not that I have any sympathy) because the teams do not have long-established fans in those areas in the same way that Green Bay or Pittsburgh or Minnesota or Buffalo would have and literally everyone wants to visit there unlike those other places. It might change as we go along and the novelty wears off but the road trip is just too dang great to visit Vegas and see your favorite football squad. Even if the Raiders were winners I’m guessing opposing fans would still pay a pretty penny to go. I have also noticed fan takeovers happening a lot these days. Lions fans were so loud at the Superdome last week that their GM talked about it. 49ers fans took over US Bank Stadium. Vikings fans have been everywhere except Buffalo and Philly. Maybe it’s better travel options or more fans from outside of Minnesota are able to get tickets through the secondary market. I don’t know. It’s definitely not just the LA/LV teams.

@JoshuaR_Smith How weird was Rich Gannon's career arc?

It’s pretty weird. I’m not sure how many quarterbacks have ever started playing their best ball at age 34. For two years I’ve been talking about how Kirk Cousins was even somewhat of an outlier as playing well at age 35 because non-elite QBs usually do not last deep into their 30s, yet he made his first Pro Bowl at 34 and won MVP at 37.

He was never terrible but making that type of jump at that age, I’m not sure I can think of anyone like that since then. You could say Geno Smith but Gannon continued to get a decent amount of starts along the way when he was in Kansas City so it’s a little different from a guy sitting for many years. Sorta Carson Palmer, though he was great at the beginning unlike Gannon.

There’s nothing harder to predict than which QBs are going to be good.

@MrEd315 Of the current Vikings players and coaches, which three do you like to play Santa Claus at the team’s holiday party? Rank them if you wish.

Is it too obvious to just pick any three linemen?

Oliver… How can the Vikes Front Office/Wilf’s keep O’Connell and Flores together? Could we offer Flores and O’Connell equal salaries and/or dual head coach titles. I know there would be numerous game decisions that pose potential philosophical conflicts if they each managed their side but I think this partnership is SB caliber. Your thoughts?

It would be a very, very bad idea to undercut O’Connell like that. There can only be one head guy who calls the shots. I really don’t think there is anything that matches being the HC. If Flores gets an offer, he’s going to take it.

Tim… If you were head coach what would you rather have an early or a late bye and will you be in Las Vegas?

The only perfect time is right in the middle of the season but it all depends on how the team is doing. If you are leading the division and planning on a deep playoff run then you’d love a late bye week to get healthy for the stretch run. If your team is bad, it will feel like you needed a bye earlier in the season. And yes, I’ll be in Vegas.

Marcus… If this week goes sideways, should it be Jaren Hall time?

I would be surprised if that was the case until they are eliminated from the playoffs.

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