Friday Mailbag: Darnold, QB options and coaching

After Sam Darnold made the Super Bowl, Vikings fans have questions

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, we’ve got a Super Bowl matchup and now we have to wait a really long time to see the game. Until then, let’s answer some questions…

Scott…In an article by The Athletic, Mike McDaniel said this: “You try to take [pressure] off of [the QB] by creating some low-cost, high-reward offense that he’s firmly capable of doing but maybe a player of lesser talent would be capable of doing, as well,” McDaniel said. “He’s still going to be able to pump the ball down the field. You got to use that cannon that he has as an arm. But maybe having some quicker, ball-out passes at a higher frequency.”

I get KOC hunting for explosives, but the Vikings offense under him regardless of who the QB is has always felt real stop and start to me. It never seems to flow smoothly. Am I imagining things here? Would love to know what you think of McDaniel’s plan for building a strong offense around a great QB too.

The quick game discussion is frustrating because Darnold absolutely killed it with downfield passing. He had more yards on 20+ yard throws than anyone in the NFL. It’s not like it wasn’t working.

But the offense didn’t work that way in 2022 or 2023 with Kirk Cousins. In 2023, Cousins was 39th of 40 in percentage of 20+ yard throws. He was 5th in percentage of throws between 10-19 yards and had the 5th highest grade.

Also Darnold was a top-notch short passer. He had the 5th highest PFF grade on throws between 0-9 yards and 4th highest comp% ....when he threw in under 2.5 seconds, he had the 8th highest grade.

The difference between Darnold and Tua was that 63% of Tua’s throws were under 2.5 seconds and only 30% for Darnold. But the Vikings massively outperformed the 2024 Miami passing game. It wasn’t even close.

The only time that Miami was ever good under McDaniel was 2023 when Tua led the NFL in — wait for it — deep passing yards. In McDaniels’ first year 2022 Tua was No. 1 with the deep Average Depth of Target per throw.

So while I think that a balanced attack is the absolute best, the downfield passing game is still what’s winning. Stafford and Maye were both top 5 in ADOT, for example.

It’s not the only way to win and they MUST, MUST, MUST massively reduce sacks in the future, but the overall philosophy is justifiable.

Oh, by the way, JJ McCarthy had the 5th highest percentage of intermediate (10-19) passes and the 23rd best PFF grade when throwing them. Deep throws, he had the 8th highest percentage and 28th grade. When he threw short, he ranked 42nd of 43 in PFF grade.

So the idea that KOC was doing it all wrong with the downfield passing… I’m not sure it matches up exactly with the numbers.

Joel… Does Tomlin being out there put even more pressure on KOC next year?

I don’t know exactly what Tomlin’s contract says because he wasn’t fired, he stepped down and there were reports that he still technically belongs to the Steelers. From what I read, the team has an option for 2027, which I guess they could exercise if they thought someone would trade for him… maybe?

Anyway, with that out of the way, that’s probably fair considering his connection to Minnesota and the fact that this franchise is always going to be an attractive place of work because of the quality ownership and facilities etc.

At the same time, I don’t know that one particular coach being available (Sean McDermott will be there too because he’s apparently not going to coach in 2026) makes a huge difference in the equation.

What the Wilfs will have to decide after 2026 is: Do we want to keep going down this road or not?

I don’t think it’s very smart for ownership to treat one season like a final showdown in a sports movie. They should look at the overall direction and answer whether they can think that this leadership can make them a Super Bowl contender or not. The results have correlated 100% with whether they had capable quarterback play or not. You can say “KOC can’t win in the playoffs” and that might be true but we’re only talking about two games. I was against judging Sam Darnold by his two games and I’m against saying KOC can’t do it because of those two games too.

(I’m also not a fan of owners doing stuff that they think will appease the fans. You saw that backfire in Buffalo).

Certainly if everything crashes down like it did for Zim in 2021, then it’ll feel like it’s time to make a move. If they pick up the pieces of what happened in 2025 and get back into the playoffs next year, it’s going to be pretty hard to argue that they don’t have a good thing going for them.

Rainyday21… Do you think the Vikings offered Sam Darnold a reasonable contract offer prior to free agency last year? Some reports say Sam turned down a similar Vikings deal to go to Seattle and not compete with a high draft pick QB. This would also seem similar to the Daniel Jones situation.

I’m also wondering if KOC was hesitant to use the franchise tag as it is usually seen as “not friendly to the player”. Would love to have a full breakdown of what happened inside TCO last offseason. Seems like an all time blunder by KOC and Kwesi to let Sam leave the building without some kind of fair offer being made.

They reportedly did offer him a contract but he was never going to sign it as long as JJ McCarthy was still in the building. So it’s really moot.

As far as the franchise tag, it’s very clear that they felt the tag would be restrictive to what they did to fix the roster.

The Rams game got deep in their heads. Not only did they not think Darnold was good enough to overcome an imperfect roster to get them there, they felt they needed to spend huge on every single area that they were beaten in that playoff game. Or be built to win “different kinds of fights.” Well, they were built that way in 2025. But it meant nothing because their QB play ranked 28th in EPA.

Anyway, there’s been QBs who were franchise tagged before and it was fine. Kirk Cousins by Washington. Dak Prescott by Dallas. Those guys still went out and did their jobs.

It is an all-time blunder, no doubt. I’m sure the rehashing is going on inside those rooms at the team facility as much as it was your water cooler over the last few weeks.

James B… I’m an impatient person. Please tell me we’ll have some idea who is going to be competing with McCarthy within the first few days of free agency. If we trade for Mac Jones, it will be well before the draft, right?

I would guess that you’ll have answers by mid-March but I can’t say for sure. Usually teams go to the NFL Combine, hash these things out with agents or other clubs and then you see the results of those discussions a few days later.

I imagine if the 49ers are willing to trade Mac, it will be in early March because both teams will have to know what they are doing at the QB position.

I’m not sure there’s any way it could drag out beyond that because once you get into the summer, then you’re talking about OTAs, minicamp etc. You’d want a new QB in there getting rolling.

Andrew K…How much do you hear/believe Flo not getting a head coaching position out of the 10 open this year is due to his abrasiveness vs. his ongoing lawsuit? I feel like the major factor is his lawsuit (and the teams circling the wagons), vs. his approach. Or, has the league and today’s players moved on from the super-direct, tough coaches (Parcells, Coughlin, Zimmer, Les Steckel(!)?

I’m not sure that I can split it up into percentages. How much is the concerns over how he’s interacted with certain people over the years vs. the lawsuit, I have no idea because sadly I’m not a billionaire NFL owner. I can say that the combination of both is probably lethal to his chances. The lawsuit went after several franchises directly and those dudes probably have friends around the league and he also suggested some things about the Dolphins owner (i.e. alleging payment for losing) that owners would worry about whether stuff would stay in house.

And then when you have credible people like Mike Pettine and Ryan Fitzpatrick murmuring about how he’s gotten along with folks and some hints that there’s other members of the staff not coming back… it doesn’t exactly bump the odds in his favor.

All that said: Results-based league. For the Vikings, his results have been nothing short of phenomenal and his players have vouched for their relationship with him (even when they didn’t have to do so). In the NFL, ends justifies the means most of the time and the Vikings need the ends to be a top-10 defense in 2026 so he’s back and I’m very confident they’ll do it again.

Scott L…We’ve heard that Flores is too abrasive to be a head coach, but is O’Connell too nice to get the best results out of a team? KOC is an inspiration for how I want to show up a business leader, but my business isn’t the cutthroat NFL.

When quarterbacks are bad, it breaks everyone’s brain. O’Connell’s culture has been given A+’s by the players and it directly impacted them landing a bunch of free agents. Heck, Caleb Williams wanted to play here. It’s an environment designed by a former player for current players to thrive and they largely have.

But when the QB plays bad, we start staying, “is it this? This? That? The other thing? WHAT WAS IT?!?!?!”

It was a young QB who wasn’t ready to play. That’s what it was.

If O’Connell’s players were giving up on him because he gave them too much ice cream after recess, then we wouldn’t have seen them fight their butts off until the end in 2023 and 2025. We would have seen the whole operation fall apart.

There’s just a part of fans (and clearly owners) who never wants to acknowledge that this league is won or lost by rosters. Coaches give you small edges or disadvantages. It’s not Madden. That’s how Kyle Shanahan can have multiple offenses that ranked in the 20s with the Browns and with Nick Mullens at QB in SF. That’s true of every good coach who’s had QB uncertainty. Genius one day, fool the next.

Brad L… What’s your prediction on Sam Darnolds career arc? Has this been a two year anomaly or the start of sustained success?

The sample size is way too big for this to be an anomaly. It’s actually comical at this point that he gets so little benefit of the doubt vs. other QBs with similar draft status.

Since 2022, among passers with at least 1,000 attempts, Darnold ranks 5th in passer rating right behind Joe Burrow and just ahead of Jordan Love. He’s 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Has won 32 of 41 regular season starts and now threw for 346 and 3 TDs in an NFC Championship game.

Anyway, I think Darnold is Jared Goff, only the Seahawks finished the game this year and the Lions failed to finish vs. San Francisco in 2023. This is his best shot. It is very possible it will be his only shot at a Super Bowl. It’s really, really, really, really hard to get there. Just ask Josh and Lamar.

Does that mean he’s going to fall off a cliff next year? Nah. Nobody has ever played at this level over a two year stretch and then just forgotten how to play. But as the roster gets older and expensive eventually, things will likely change and become more difficult. Plus, things don’t always line up as perfectly as the way they did this year. Like, say, if you have to go on the road after winning 14 games instead of playing at home and resting for a week.

It looks to me like Sam is a Jordan Love/Justin Herbert/Dak Prescott tier QB whose team was good enough and it worked out.

Scott H… Hey Matthew
I was wondering what you would do if you were the Wilf’s for the QB situation. Personally, I think they should ride it out with JJ for 2026. Either he shows some improvement and we have a guy, or we aren’t good, and can go get a QB in the draft. However with Kwesi and KOC being on the hot seat, I don’t see them having patience and just riding it out with JJ. What are your thoughts on what you want them to do vs what you think they will do? (I know you have certainly discussed the QB topic many times before and are probably sick of it but it’s hard not to ask).

I keep going back and forth about this. Because it makes sense to me to let them sink or swim on McCarthy. They made this choice, now live with it. It’s actually a pretty tough argument to beat when you think about A) the possibility it works is better than with other QBs B) it gives them a chance to make the miscue right rather than a cop-out 10-win season with whatever meh QB who will get them beat in the Wild Card round 2026.

But after the end of the season where McCarthy got hurt again (and again), it’s really hard to tell KAM and KOC that they absolutely must ride it out with McCarthy. What if he gets hurt in Week 2 again and they just waste another year?

Also, this isn’t as uncommon as you’d think. Because it’s your franchise, you feel like you’ve been hit with a hammer but there are a lot of teams who pivoted quickly from QBs after drafting one. The Colts are already out on Richardson. Kenny Pickett was done in Pittsburgh after two seasons. Trey Lance never reached his 23rd birthday with the 49ers. Washington let go Dwayne Haskins after 13 starts. The Cardinals traded Josh Rosen after one season. Paxton Lynch started four games.

This league doesn’t tend to wait around. So if they feel like McCarthy is very far away from being able to win them games consistently, they have to go in another direction.

By the way: When the Vikings signed Sam Darnold or the Colts signed Daniel Jones, did anyone think those teams would legitimately compete? The Vikings have such a long history of winning with QBs that aren’t exactly the bell of the ball when they arrive that they have to look at all of the next potential Jeff Georges out there.

Matt D…Any free agent safeties you got your eye on for the Vikings this offseason? Feels like they need to bring in a vet to stabilize things back there and keep Metellus doing the sort of things he excels at.

The thing about the safety position is that it always seems like there’s about 10 guys who are pretty darn good starts on the free agent market.

The ones that stand out to me most are Jaylinn Hawkins from the Patriots, Kamren Curl of the Rams, Baltimore’s Alohi Gilman, Arizona’s Jalen Thompson and Nick Cross from Indy (he’s young, blitzes a lot).

That decision is going to come down to fit but it makes a lot of sense to use free agency to fill that spot and continue to develop Jay Ward.

Ben…I’ve seen some sentiments that this football regime is too nice and people aren’t being held accountable ( not sure what being held accountable means) is their some merit to that or do you think it’s a weird criticism of this regime that up until this season had done everything right??

People just say words because they know that everyone will agree with them. It’s like when fans say “the play calling sucks!” If things aren’t going well, everyone’s going to be like, YEAH IT SUCKS!

Rage is all the rage. So the more angry something sounds, the more popular it’s going to be. I’m not sure what “held accountable” means either, outside of “be fired.” Because if you don’t think there are consequences to a disappointing season where the QB you let walk is playing in the Super Bowl, you’re mistaken. Not only is the entire universe going to spend the whole week talking about it, but they are under the white hot light in 2026 with a ton of pressure to get to the playoffs and win.

Joseph M…What are the chances that the Vikings told McCarthy Do NOT throw a fast ball all off season.. Just work and throws with touch?

The Vikings look at it like this: There are three different types of passes. The first is the fastball, where you need to throw a frozen rope into a certain window to make it work. The “2 ball” is the touch throw with strong velocity that glides over a linebacker’s hands and descends beautifully into the arms of the receiver. The third type is a throw that goes up top, high in the air and then falls out of the sky for a home run.

The second one was a huge problem for McCarthy this year and the third one was pretty rough too. We saw way too many 1s when 2s were needed.

Mike Renner of CBS Sports brought up an interesting point on that: He felt that McCarthy was not seeing things fast enough and then trying to make up for the late reaction by throwing the bejesus out of the ball. That really made a lot of sense to me.

Anticipation isn’t just about whether you can throw the ball with touch, it’s that you can do it with the proper timing. You have to believe in throwing the ball to an area based on how the play is designed, not throwing to a guy that you see running open. It’s so much different than college. That’s why it takes a really long time.

So he might work on it all spring but unless he can get the timing and footwork right to go along with putting more touch on certain throws, it won’t work.

Axel P… Hi Matthew. I can’t express my disappointment enough, being one of the few who really wanted Darnold to stay last year. As you said before, you can’t go back in time. What I still don’t understand today is the blind faith they had in McCarthy. He was a 10th overall pick, but he was the 5th QB drafted. I remember Jeremiah Sirles a couple of year ago saying, regarding that draft class, “please don’t draft the Michigan kid”. How did he become our undisputed franchise QB without having played a single snap for us? If he had been a 1st overall pick, a Heisman Trophy winner, etc, it would make some sense, but this one was incredibly far fetched from the beginning…

I have that same issue myself based on history. There’s just not that many QBs who threw fewer than 800 passes in college and then immediately shined and there’s no precedent for a kid missing a full season.

I do think, however, that it’s easy to forget the feeling in the building in 2024 camp. He made consistent improvement week after week and they loved his overall direction, which was highlighted by his performance against the Raiders in the preseason game.

Is that enough to dump a 14-win, top-10 quarterback over? That’s probably never been done before for a reason.

But McCarthy did show them a lot in his first camp. My guess is that they figured he would pick up where he left off. Instead he started back at Square One, except with the pressure ramped up by 10,000x. And then getting hurt again after two games seemed to ruin all progress again.

If they hadn’t had an option to split the difference and have the 2025 season to evaluate both QBs, then it would be much easier to rationalize. Instead they rolled the dice and it came up snake eyes.

Brad… You’ve been talking a lot about Kyler Murray and Mac Jones as a potential qb, what about another potential Darnold route like Trubisky or Zach Wilson? They were both high picks and have been backups for a while now in good systems. The upside is there and if McCarthy can’t beat them out then maybe O’Connell can whisper in another veterans ear.

Trubisky isn’t the craziest thing I’ve ever heard. He did go 29-21 as the Bears quarterback and has played well in a tiny sample in Buffalo after struggling with the Steelers. The upside is a lot more limited than Darnold. He’s in his 30s and doesn’t have the arm talent to be one of those shocking turnaround guys.

I’m out on the Wilson idea. The fact that Miami didn’t even have him playing QB2 is enough for me to think there’s no Darnold path there.

I think you’re looking for less whispering and more at quarterbacks who already know how to do the job and just need to go execute. Praying for another miracle like Darnold doesn’t seem very likely to work out.

Adam B…KOC is very stubborn, but with the pressure heaping on what are the chances he makes major changes to his offense next season? He can’t just drop QB’s as different as Mac Jones or Murray into the existing system - and McCarthy can’t operate it yet either - and expect it to work surely?

I’m begging people to understand that the Vikings have two of the best deep wide receivers in the NFL and that it makes complete sense to create an offense for a strong-armed quarterback to throw downfield often.

Also, when Kirk was the QB, his deep passing percentage 28th of 40 in 2022 and 39th of 40 in 2023. Fans act like KOC is out here calling Ken Stabler’s plays.

Mac Jones is very Kirk-like in his ability to succeed with intermediate throws. He was the 14th highest graded (of 41) QB between 10-19 yards this season and fifth in yards per attempt. I don’t think they would need major overhauls to the system to hit some dagger concepts across the middle with Jones.

Murray is somewhat different. That would require figuring out how to deal with his height issue, especially as it pertains to the middle of the field. Though, surprisingly, Murray was 11th in PFF passing grade on intermediate throws in 2024. Drew Petzing actually had Murray playing real QB a lot in 2024, it’s just that nobody watched the Arizona Cardinals. On throws that came out in 2.5 seconds or less, Murray had the 14th best PFF grade and completed 72%… that made up 48% of his throws, which was 12th most.

I think they could make the playoffs with either guy.

Patrick G…with all the OC positions available, has there been any news about if there’s potential interest for WR coach Keenan McCardell? I think I remember you saying a couple years ago that he is highly regarded throughout the league, and you felt like it was only a matter of time before he got his shot.

There hasn’t been any interest in McCardell in a few years. He’s an incredibly good receivers coach who is deserving of more interest but he doesn’t match the young genius wunderkind prototype as an OG former receiver. Is that fair? Of course not.

Florian K….Do you have any info on what “quality control” coaches do? That position seems to come up when referring to coaches moving up in the business. Also, KOC is famous for saying something to the effect that teams often fail the QB before the QB fails. Any thoughts on where the Vikings are at with that?

QC coaches are the grinders. They put together film cut-ups and draw out the plays and create scout team cards and all sorts of other stuff. That’s how young coaches stand out. If you’re willing to do it and you’re a difference maker there, you’re going to probably get more opportunities. It’s where coaches really learn the NFL.

Teams probably do fail QBs more than QBs fail teams but nobody’s a miracle worker.

Rick H…What are our chances with Malik Willis