Friday Mailbag: Dantzler and defensive improvement

Vikings fans keep the questions and predictions coming

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! Hope you all are enjoying your vacations or baseball or whatever it is that you do in the summer. But we’ve still got lots of football to talk about so let’s get into it…

@DarrickMoren Using the ranking of 24th in points allowed, how big of an improvement would last years same defense have with the addition of a healthy Z Smith & Hunter? (Assuming healthy whole year and back to the "normal" for each player)

Last year Everson Griffen ranked 11th in the NFL in pass rush win rate and Hunter was ninth. Griffen played 484 snaps and Hunter 384. That’s about 40% of what we’d expect if Smith and Hunter play the entire season. If we figure that the best case scenario with Smith is that he plays similarly to Griffen and Hunter plays the same way as he did to start 2021, add 60% more snaps and it would have bumped the Vikings up a few spots. The Steelers were 20th and they allowed 28 fewer points. Assuming that having two good rushers would have prevented Zimmer from blitzing as much and they could have covered better, there’s definitely an impact. The huge issue with the defense last year was that they couldn’t stop anyone from running over them, which may have been helped by Smith/Hunter but anything more than a full game’s worth of points is a stretch for two players.

@smccullough5 I'm honestly interested in your opinion. Whose the right (and realistic) qb to put on this current Vikings team? To me Kirk's lack of fire is his biggest fault. Ive seen enough of CEO Kirk, I love the Marcus Mariota idea or even Matt Ryan for this team.

It depends on your definition of “right” quarterback. The right quarterback probably didn’t exist this year — that would be a first-round draft pick. Unfortunately the draft class only had one of those. If you mean what type of QB that they could have acquired as a bridge could have won them more games in 2021, that would be Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not sure Matt Ryan is going to play better than Cousins. I don’t think Baker is better either but he’s cheaper. Jimmy G has more of a track record of taking his team places, even if he isn’t technically as talented. Mariota was the bridge option that I liked if they moved on from Cousins because he’s a solid player with no illusions about being a long-term option. He’s crazy cheap, has won nine games in a season before and there’s no commitment.

@RalphVixCPA Bold Take Vikes finish 5-12, Swept by Packers and Lions, Split the Bears. Brass will blame injuries and bad calls cause we always the only team to suffer each. Kicking was good though.

Who hurt you, Ralph? Oh, right, the Vikings. If they go 5-12 and kick well, that means they’ll draft high in a good QB draft and have their kicker of the future in Greg Joseph. It’s a no-lose scenario! Well, except for the fact that losing 12 games in O’Connell’s first year with fairly high expectations would not be a super good sign for the future.

@bgarmani My bold take - this is the year Cousins gets a season-ending injury. If KC plays less than 8 games, what’s your projected win total?

Look, guys, it’s summer time. Don’t be projecting people to have horrific injuries. Wait until one happens and then talk about how it ruins the whole season. To answer your question, if Cousins plays under eight games, Ralphy’s projection is coming true. You’re going 5-12.

@jdbondy Alright Matthew, get in your 90’s WAAY back machine, if today’s You could go back in time and cover a team from the early, mid, and late 90’s for one season who would they be? Think storylines, memorable player seasons, etc…mine: 92Cowboys, 95Colts, 99Rams

Love your nominations. I’ll put the ‘98 Vikings on my list. How about the Joe Montana Kansas City Chiefs. Watching a legend with nothing left in the tank still find ways to win (not to mention Derrick Thomas and Marcus Allen) would have been incredible. I’ll throw in the Bill Cowher Steelers with their great defenses and the ‘94 49ers that finally got over the hump. The earliest years of Favre might have been interesting to see him turn into a legend. If we’re going complete disasters, the original Cleveland Browns or Akili Smith Bengals would have provided absurd content.

@KyeBaxter I assume you saw the Minkah Fitzpatrick extension. The total price for the upcoming 4 years is roughly 75m. Given this price, which was more analytically savvy this last draft: Vikings trade back draft S or Lions trade up and draft WR? I mean that's basically a 50m difference between Hill and Fitzpatrick. Seems like it is almost as much an advantage to draft a cheap WR as a cheap QB.

Analytically savvy is a tough question because the Vikings got extra draft capital for moving back and that’s good. However, if you get a star receiver, the value over a second-contract WR is way more than if you draft a star safety. Is it more than if you draft a star safety and star corner? No. So they really have to hit on both of those picks to make the formula work from a surplus value perspective. Your observation about receivers is right on though, they are getting more and more expensive and it’s going to be harder for teams to work around their deals. Drafting them often will be even smarter in the future.

@kyleshaner There’s Young Sheldon and Young Rock. Which young Viking would make for the best TV show?

Young Randy Moss or young John Randle would teach some folks about what it means to grow up in very difficult environments. Minnesota TV ratings would explode if they did Young Thielen about growing up in Detroit Lakes and going to Mankato. Maybe Young Kwesi?

@mattverick How many NFL stadiums have you been to? What ones are high on your list of wanting to get to?

I’ve been to Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, Philly, San Francisco, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Los Angeles (three different stadiums). The ones I’d like to visit are Dallas and Seattle but I didn’t make the road trips when the Vikings were last there. I’ve never been to Nashville. However, I’m still annoyed that the Tennessee Titans are to blame for the Vikings having to de-pyro the pre-game dragon.

@spardisjx In your opinion, who truly is the GOAT WR? Moss or Rice?

Randy Moss is in the top five — probably the top three — but he isn’t No. 1. Nobody is even close to Rice. I don’t think Randy Moss’s family would tell you he’s better than Jerry Rice. Think about this: Randy Moss could have had seven more 1,000-yard seasons and not beaten Rice’s all-time receiving record. Jerry Rice’s best season was 200 yards better than Moss’s best. Rice is so insanely good that he was on the Hall of Fame All-80s and All-90s teams and he made a second-team All-Pro in the 2000s. Moss is the most exciting receiver of all time but not the GOAT. The man tore his ACL at age 35 and then averaged 77 catches per season for the next six years. Nuts.

@4_starter Are you going to the Vikings game in London and if so can I buy you a Dr Pepper?

I’m not going but I’m sending Jonathan Harrison, who used to work with me at 1500ESPN/SKOR and now does our social media (@Purple_Insider on Twitter). Jonathan is a huge soccer nut so I thought it would be cool for him to go over there and take pictures, come on the podcast, go to the game and create some fun stuff for everyone.

@headcoach21 What are your projections on Cam Danzler this year?? I feel like out of all the players on defense he was jammed the hardest by Zimmer.

Cornerbacks are hard. I want to push back on narratives that Cam Dantzler was victimized because he did not win the training camp battle and got beat in a few very important situations (vs. Dallas and Detroit in 2021, vs. Seattle in 2022). Does that mean Bashaud Breeland should have played over him after like Week 6? Of course not. But he didn’t get in the dog house with Zimmer for nothing. I’m skeptical about the ability of advanced metrics on cornerbacks being predictive since we see wild ups and downs from good corners all the time. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if he came into his own this year and played very well. He looked pretty jacked up at minicamp from the skinny kid who got here two years ago and I think he’s got a natural ability to stay with receivers and make plays on the ball. The range of outcomes is somewhere between being unreliable with splash plays to being very good.

@PurpleBloodMN Mailbag call: JJ will throw for 125+ yards and 2 TD’s this season

I would be surprised if they’re using Jefferson to throw enough passes to get to 125 yards. I’ll go with 63 yards passing and one touchdown. But having watched him throw after practice for a few years, I would not be shocked to see a 75-yard touchdown pass to Smith-Marsette or something crazy this year.

@mpsmsp What specifically about Mond's game is so bad

Playing QB in the NFL is mind-bogglingly difficult. You need an unbelievable memory to recall all the details of hundreds of plays and outrageous accuracy to even step on the field and then your mind has to work quick enough to process everything that’s happening at lightning speed and deliver the ball on time exactly as the coaches have drawn it up. From what I’ve seen from Mond in practice/preseason he can’t handle some of those unbelievably hard things. He isn’t accurate. His throwing technique is unlike anything I’ve seen from any successful quarterback. He doesn’t deliver the ball on time in practice, which means he doesn’t quite recall the plays or can’t process them at this speed. This isn’t Madden where a guy has a 90 arm and 75 accuracy and you can throw anybody in with physical tools and they’ll just do quarterback stuff. I’ll be slightly interested in how it goes in camp to see if there’s improvement but I’d bank on Sean Mannion being QB2 because he’s simply better at those things by quite a wide margin. If Mond improves he has a chance to be a backup. This is what any team should expect from a third-round pick QB 95% of the time.

@swikarojha24 Does it not make sense for the Vikings to go out and sign a competent backup QB? I think we’ve seen that Mannion is just Kirk’s coach and can’t actually run an NFL offense. Mond doesn’t seem to be moving up depth charts. If Kirk goes down, we shouldn’t have to throw in the towel.

I think Mannion could operate the offense well enough to be competitive in a few games if Cousins got hurt. Is he good enough to beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in January while Aaron Rodgers is shredding on the other side? Of course not. But the Packers have won 39 games in the last three years so most people aren’t. The reason the Vikings don’t have a better backup is money. They can’t spend $7.5 million on a QB2 with many other needs a few dollars to work with. There’s also about three backup QBs worth a darn in the NFL. Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Jacoby Brisett…uh…Fitz retired so…uhhh… you get the picture. Most teams are completely lost if the backup plays more than a couple games and the Vikings are no different.

@b_peters12 What element of the Rams offense are you most looking forward to O’Connell carrying over?

It has to be the 11 personnel. The Vikings did more of that last year with Tyler Conklin being the only receiving TE but that was like a rock guitarist trying to play blues. O’Connell is fluent in three-receiver sets. Does he use way more motion? Lots of bunch formations? Go out of the shotgun more? Mix in some receiver screens and quick game? Lots of things to be interested in.

@CDNVikfan Are we all too high on Irv Smith? Seems like we just assume he's going to be the second coming of Tony Gonzalez but he hasn't proven anything really yet, has he?

Yes and no. What we saw in camp last year looked like one of the best 10 tight ends in the NFL and then he didn’t get a chance to show it because of the injury. Is he going to be one of the top three tight ends? The next Tony Gonzalez? Nah. He doesn’t have the size, go-up-and-get-it or YAC ability to be one of the true elite, elite types but he can be very good and end the year deserving of a big contract.

@DaveWeadon just saw that Sue Bird will be retiring after this year. Who would he an NFL equivalent to her. I know nothing about WNBA but I would imagine Peyton would be a close comparison?

Not quite. Peyton Manning is like Diana Taurasi. She is the all-time leading scorer and most likely to be called GOAT along with Maya Moore (who’s your Tom Brady if he stopped playing after a few titles). Sue is more like a Ben Roethlisberger (not off the court, obviously). She’s not quite of the Mt. Rushmore types but absolutely one of the best of all time. Arguably the greatest point guard to ever play. Incredible competitor and winner.

@AES64 Your Lions prediction seems nuts--Goff isn't good enough to win making vet QB money with the ensuing decreased spending elsewhere--but they are bold predictions, not milquetoast ones. Given how awful the Lions have been, why didn't Jim Caldwell have another HC job? The man went 36-28 *in Detroit* for goodness sake!

Yes, it was bold indeed — though I have seen some sharp people who talk betting saying they think the Lions will beat their over-under number. You may think Goff isn’t good enough because he was so miserable for most of last season but he was a two-time Pro Bowler with the Rams and he went 18-13 in the two years (2019-2020) after the Rams’ offense dropped off a bit from their amazing 2017 and 2018 years. He’s not a joke. If you give him a good offensive line, quality receivers and a competent coaching staff, he’s going to probably end up around .500. I think they have a good chance to be that. I don’t know why Caldwell never got another job. He wasn’t perfect but mid-pack coach at worst. Way better than his predecessor.